GASabresIUFan

Here are the 2024 starters in the Bills last season acquired through the draft (20 full or spot starters) * (The are also 12 draftees starting or playing significant roles for other NFL teams) 2017 - Dawkins, Milano 2018- Allen, Taron Johnson (Beane's first draft) 2019 - Oliver, Knox 2020 - AJE, Bass 2021 - Rousseau, Brown, Hamlin 2022 - Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford 2023 - Torrence, Kincaid, Dorian Williams (spot starter) 2024 - Coleman, Bishop (spot starter) The Bills also played 10 rookies last year, including 8 draftees. Obviously the Draft is critical to building the Bills and maintaining cap integrity. That said, they are kind of in a unique position. The Bills are in win now mode after Beane's two year overhaul has left the Bills, younger, cheaper and in many ways better, although he only has 1 year left on the rookie deals for Rousseau, Cook, Shakir, Benford and Bernard. The Bills can clear 40 mill in cap space with some relatively easy moves and have all but 3 starters under contract. The 3 open jobs are CB (replacing Douglas), WR (replacing Cooper) and S (replacing Hamlin). Bishop is likely taking over for Hamlin, leaving only 2 starting jobs for new players. The Bills also have most of their depth under contract with a few exceptions in Hollins, Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Alec Anderson, Smoot and LS Reid Ferguson. I suspect the Bills want all 6 of the named UFAs back. They have significant draft capital heading into the draft with as many as 10 picks depending on how the compensatory picks are assigned. The bottom line is with a nearly complete roster, 40 mill in potential cap space and 10 draft picks, Beane can afford to go shopping in both the trade market and the FA market to fill the few holes in the roster to try to put his win now roster over the top. Looking at the offseason, the Bills greatest needs are in order 1) Starting CB - Douglas is gone and Elam isn't up to the task - solution - Likely a FA with a draft pick (or 2) for depth 2) Starting Boundary WR - I'd like to see Beane use a premium pick to replace Cooper, but I suspect he'll go a medium priced FA with a WR added from later in the draft. I want Golden or Egbuka if we keep our 1st rd pick. 3) Edge Rusher - I'm actually all in on the Myles Garrett idea, especially if it clears Elam and AJE off the roster as the Athletics' Joe B suggested. We are in win now mode and getting a future HOFer to play opposite of Rousseau changes the dynamic of the defense. 4)Safety depth - Rapp's eventual replacement drafted in the 4th rd of the draft. 5) DT - Need more depth here if the don't believe Carter is the guy to replace Jones long-term So as to the OP question, we are in win now mode and using some of the 10 picks to add good veterans is wise.

The article points out you can realize about the same cap savings by just cutting his pay and keeping the player. I’d much rather cut AJE. Miller at 36 in a depth role is still better than AJE who McD took off the field in passing downs.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6112793/2025/02/05/bills-2025-offseason-roster-salary-cap/ Excellent analysis of the Bills cap situation. Suggests restructuring Miller, Allen, Dawkins and Oliver and some smaller moves gets the Bills to 37 mill in cap space. The Bills will need to add a starter at CB and WR, hopefully bring back Ty Johnson and Hollins and complete the roster. Depending on how Beane adds starters at CB and WR, will greatly influence how much money he has for upgrades on the DL. I now expect Miller to return at half his current cost as a situational pass rusher. One move he didn’t mention in the article is cutting AJE. That yields cap savings and opens a spot for an upgrade.

That's fine, the Bills can add him to the practice squad when he gets cut 3 games into the season for dropping 6 balls.

Arian Smith is a 5-6th rd draft pick. Lots of speed, mediocre route running and terrible hands and I'm writing this as a UGA season ticket holder. He is someone you take a late round flier on and hope it works out. No way a team uses a premium draft pick on him.

I've played around with about 5 of these simulators and can't seem to find one whose rankings are great. Anyone have a suggestion which site has the best rankings?

Ladd McConkey In this draft, Emeka Egbuka.

Which of the mock draft simulator sites has the best player rankings?

True. AJE might not even be a Bill next season. He is part of the problem not the solution. His pressure rate is terrible which is why McD removed him from the field on passing downs.

I don't think any Bills fan is happy with the status of our DL and I think everyone agrees that it needs to be a focus for Beane in the free agency and in the draft. Getting more and consistent pressure is this off-season's biggest priority, but this is a story for another thread.

Which is why he is in the developing category. I never said developing elite. I said developing. I think his ceiling is Higgins or Pittman. If he gets there he will be considered elite. I saw enough this season to make me think that ceiling is still possible. He made some great contested catches and showed the ability to read off Josh at times. Overall I thought his rookie year was good, but not great and as I wrote above, he needs to dedicate himself to getting better.

The guy averaged 19.2 yards per catch as a rookie. That was 4th among all NFL WRs with 40 or more targets.

This is the one area where Beane has truly missed the mark. Oliver and Groot are good players, but not elite. Both maybe "better" if they had better players on the line with them. Beane has invested a fair amount of draft capital on the DL in Harrison Phillips (96th pick in 2018), Oliver (9th in 2019), AJE (54th in 2020), Rousseau (30th in 2021), Basham (61st in 2021), & Carter (95th overall in 2024). Only Basham is a true bust. Phillips has become a very good player for the Vikings. AJE continues to disappoint and should be replaced.

The definition of elite is subjective. Sure All-pro and Pro Bowl nods are good indicators if a player is considered elite, but they also, especially the Pro Bowl, tend to be a little bit like popularity contests. For example, take Spencer Brown, the guy allowed 1 sack all season and only 2 pressures. That's it. IMHO those are the stats of an elite tackle, despite him not being recognized as such by PFF grading system or selected for the Pro Bowl. The reason I created this thread is that this is an important discussion and it was prompted by a comment in another thread that Beane has not drafted any elite players for the defense. My initial reaction to that statement was that it simply wasn't true, but generally speaking, the comment does have some merit. The only Beane drafted defenders I'd consider elite are Taron Johnson and Christian Benford. So who are the elite Bills? 1) Josh Allen - Obviously. IMHO he is the best QB in football, including Mahomes, but he lacks enough good WRs to make him unstoppable 2) James Cook - If the Chiefs game didn't solidify his elite status for even the I hate RBs crowd, I don't know what will. 3) Dion Dawkins - Multi-time Pro Bowler. He is one of the best tackles in football 4) Spencer Brown - He has improved every year in the NFL and this season was spectacular. 5) Christian Benford - Was 5th overall in PFF grading system out of 223 DBs. 6) Taron Johnson - Arguably one of the best 2 or 3 slot corners in the NFL. 7) Khalil Shakir - Like Brown & Cook, has improved every year. 2nd in the NFL in YAC this past season. 8.) Matt Milano - When healthy he is one of the best LBs in football. Improved every game this season once he finally became mostly healthy. I think the elite game is still there. Developing players 1) Terrel Bernard - 100+ tackles 2 straight seasons, but fell off 2023 numbers due to injuries. I wish would McD to use him more on the pass rush. 2) O'Cyrus Torrence - How many guys start 33 of their 1st 34 games on the Oline coming right out school? No sacks allowed this past season. 3) Dalton Kincaid - Has all the skills to be an elite pass catching TE. Knee injuries hampered this past season. Lets see how he recovers. 4) Keon Coleman - Has the size and hands to be a good to excellent physical boundary receiver like a Higgins or Pittman, but needs to be more dedicated to get to that level. 5) McGovern - 1st time center did an elite job this season. Let's see how year 2 goes. Very Good but not great 1) Rousseau - I like Groot a great deal, but he very inconsistent game to game. Part of that is how the Bills have utilized him, but his motor isn't always on 2) Oliver - Much like Rousseau, inconsistent motor. We have all seen him dominate, but also seen him disappear. So is this enough "elite" talent to win a Super Bowl? I think it is with some smart additions at WR, DL and another good CB. Remember the Bills were likely one Kincaid catch away from being in the Super Bowl this season without an adequate defense.

Why? Chris Jones was a 2nd rd pick. He wasn’t an all-pro as a rookie but he made an immediate impact. Admittedly a DE/edge drafted 30th maybe a rotational player year one, but considering our struggles to get to the QB, have a good rotational player would be an immediate upgrade.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6097505/2025/01/29/bills-chiefs-offseason-roster-free-agents/ Really good article about the Bills roster needs this off-season 1) CB opposite of Benford - After reading the article, this seems like a place to invest both draft capital and finding a veteran FA to play immediately. 2) Safety behind Bishop and Rapp - let Hamlin walk. 3) DE - Low pressure rate against the Chiefs a critical issue. AJE's pressure rate was terrible all season and he was taken off the field on passing downs as the season progressed. Miller is going to be a cap casualty and Smoot is a FA. Groot was good all season except against the Chiefs in the playoffs and has only one year left on his deal. Sounds to me like a complete overhaul is necessary. 4) WR - The whole group lacked the ability to get consistent separation. Finding a boundary WR who gets separation should be a top priority this off-season. I agree with everything Buscaglia wrote in the article. IMHO Draft priorities - DE, WR and CB FA priorities - DE, DT, CB, depth S & WR

it's called being stupid.

Bishop can play either safety position. Here is what Chris Simms said on draft day.

This is definitely a topic worth discussing, but the truth is 4/5 of our starting CB/DB/S slots are already spoken for. 1) Taron Johnson is an all-pro and will be the starting slot corner next season 2) Christian Benford - Assuming he gets healthy, PFF graded him as the 5th best CB in the NFL last season. He is the starter if healthy 3) Rapp - Rapp had a solid year, is under contract and therefore will be one of the two starting safeties next season 4) Bishop - He was drafted to develop into a long-term starter at safety. He got better as the year went along and will almost certainly be Rapp running mate next season. That leaves Douglas' job open. Elam is clearly not the answer. Unfortunately he has a $4+ mill cap hit next season whether he plays or doesn't. He will be given a chance to compete for the starting job. With the Bills playing more man to man defense, maybe that helps his candidacy for the starting job. I believe the Bills need to draft 1 - 2 CBs in this draft and maybe even an additional safety. 3 names to watch in the draft are Quincy Riley (2nd rd), Maxwell Hairston (3rd rd) and Jahdae Barron (late 1st rd). I also expect the Bills to add depth in free agency to both CB and S. I agree that Ingram and Lewis are not good enough depth.

Don’t be surprised if Smoot returns. He can play most DL positions inside and out and I think Beane and McD like him. As to Phillips, he likes Buffalo and the Bills like him as well, but I’m not sure how much is left in the tank. He would be a great community outreach executive.

I am a little surprised he was re-signed so quickly. I thought Anderson and Grable had passed him on the depth chart.

You know that is incorrect. The Bills could have easily chosen Worthy at 28. After Worthy 5 WRs went off the board in the next 9 picks. The Bills could have drafted any of the those 6 players. Beane chose to trade down twice. FYI the next pick after Coleman was Ladd McConkey. All McConkey did was put up 1149 yards & 7 TDs as a rookie. For all our issues with Coleman, the kid actually had a perfectly reasonable rookie year with 29 catches for 556 yards and 4 Tds. For comparison purposes, Michael Pittman, who has similar size and speed to Coleman and was drafted 34th in 2020, had 40 catches for 503 yards & 1 TD as a rookie. There is still plenty of time for the Coleman pick to not only pan out, but truly improve the team.

Boundary WR is a huge priority. This team is desperate from someone who can get open down the field. Douglas’ departure coupled with Benford’s injuries and Elam’s mediocre play make drafting 2 CBs a priority. DE/DT needs to be better. However Groot, Oliver, Jones, and AJE are all under contract. (So is Miller) Depth players Carter and Solomon are also hanging around. Will Beane bank on internal growth or will he supplement with one of his premium draft picks? I’m taking a WR at 30 and then a CB and a DE with picks 57 & 62.

lol. Did you know Philly’s top picks the last 5 years were 21, 10, 13, 9 & 22. The Bills 54, 30, 23, 25 & 33. Not exactly an apple to apples comparison. Your augment loses all merit when you complain about a rookie 3rd rd draft pick not making a difference as a rookie or that a rookie 2nd pick isn’t an immediate starter. That’s not how drafting and developing works. Just look at the progress Brown, Shakir and Cook have made from being limited rookies to stardom. Furthermore, when you have one of the top 2-3 teams in football and it was built primarily through the draft, the GM has done his job. That is not to say there haven’t been bad choices. Of course there have. We can do the same exercise with Philly and come up with just as many poor picks, such as nearly all their picks in 2023 after the 1st rd. Nothing you complained about cost us a Super Bowl. Coaching decisions have hurt us, poor execution has hurt us, but sometimes the other team is just better. This last loss stings. I’m right there with you, but this team is setup for continued success because we have drafted very well in recent years.

Beane isn’t on the clock, the hot seat or anything else. The truth is there is plenty of elite talent on this team, mostly drafted by Beane, and this team is one of the 2 or 3 best teams in football. Allen, Brown, Cook, Dawkins, T Johnson, Benford, are all elite at their positions and all were drafted by Beane. Bernard, Torrence, and yes even Kincaid and Coleman are young good players still learning their crafts. Dumping on Beane for missing on Elam ignores the 4 other high end to elite starters from that draft class. I get why people are so sad and disappointed, but that doesn't change the fact that Beane is a great GM and has the Bills in a position to be just as good if not better next season.