Bob in STL
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Posts posted by Bob in STL
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The chart is data, and it is useful data, but it does not stand alone. It assumes that every data point (player injured) has the same impact, which is does not. As if Josh Allen missing a game has the impact of Nathan Peterman missing a game.
Example: KC has very low number of injuries relative to the rest of the teams. Take Mahomes out for the remaining games and see what the impact is. They will still be in a favorable position on the chart but that one injury could very likely cause a drastic change to their season.
Injuries to star players, quarterbacks, multiple players injured in one positional group (i.e. secondary, OL, DL), can have a bigger impact than the raw data suggests.
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12 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:
Disagree strongly with both your points.
Yes, he's ultra clutch. His performance against KC in the playoffs is in the pantheon of all time NFL performances, not just franchise. He had one of the true great performances in NFL playoff history. Did you forget? The toe tap catches that saved us in the Colts playoff game? The incredible 4th down catch that dragged the defender over the 1st down marker in the Bucs game? That's a better clutch portfolio than 95% of NFL players in history and we're halfway through his 3rd year, so I have no idea where you're coming from.
As to your 2nd point, every player is different. I'd argue 5-10% of human beings have the ability to block out the negative energy of thousands and/or millions of people doubting them. Think of the mental health epidemic now, and those are just regular people. Some people are more sensitive to it than others. They may be absolute warriors, but if you've ever had your own family or parents doubt you for years about something you believed in, you know it weighs heavy, even as you continue to perform at a high level. Something about your "own people" doubting you, is worse than knowing it's coming from your enemies/opposing fans. All Bills fans are doing are shooting themselves in the foot by praying Davis is one of those rare human beings who can overcome his issues AND the issues of hundreds of thousands of people.
Point #1 - He made some great plays and he missed some very routine plays. That is not "ultra clutch" in my view of the world. He is a young player that is still developing and is still inconsistent.
As for the all the mental health stuff in point #2, you said you took Psychology 101. I took it 45 years ago so I will defer to you on all that stuff. Especially today with the all social media impacts that now exist. Psychology is not my expertise, maybe it is yours?
As a fan I don't boo, I don't jinx, I don't root for injuries or harm to others. I don't bet either. I watch and enjoy the game and the competition. The only football team I care about are the Bills, after that I am a sports fan looking at the skills on display.
Cheers.
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4 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:
In psych 101 they teach the Fundamental Attribution Error. Basically, it means that when observers see somebody do something a few times, they attribute it to that person's character, rather than whatever situation they are dealing with at that time.
Gabe has been an ultra-clutch performer his entire career. He started extremely strong, but the last few weeks, coinciding with the rest of the team fighting through injuries and adversity, is going through a slump of his own and dealing with drops, likely related to rushing back from an injury.
Now, many fans are saying that Gabe is "not a WR2 and should stay a WR4" or that he is "unreliable". We all know about recency bias, but sometimes I am just AWED at the ability of some people to completely forget the unbelievable things somebody has done and give up on them the moment they go through a slump, no matter how uncharacteristic it is.
Gabe had a solid game yesterday. Had a drop on a difficult catch/great DB play. But now of course, he's dealing with the narrative being given to him by fans. Fans don't realize this, but by putting this narrative on his shoulders, they are making the mental climb out of his hole even MORE difficult than it has to be, rather than showing support. There is such a thing as the 12th man, but fans like to think it is only a positive effect. I'd argue the 12th man is having it's own case of the dropsies when they start turning on great players going through tough times. The fans are only hurting themselves. Let's hope Davis is more emotionally disciplined than the fanbase.
Two things.
Does being “ultra clutch” and also among the league leaders in drops make sense? He has been very good at times, but not yet consistently very good. Save the “ultra clutch” titles for the true greats of the game.
Do you want a player that listens to fans and media and lets it affect his play? I hope and seriously doubt that Davis is distracted by the “12th” man. I would bet he isn’t. Playing in Buffalo is easier than many other markets when it comes to pressure from fans and media.
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1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:
Going into the season, a lot of the buzz about the offense was about Gabe Davis "taking the next step" and becoming a big time WR2. Now, a significant portion of fans say he is a disappointment.
I think a fair expectation going into the season to be considered a top end WR2 would be a season with 60-70 receptions, 900-1,000 yards and 7-9 TDs.
Davis missed 1 game due to injury, so in the 10 games he has played he now has 33 receptions, 650 yards and 5 TDs. How does that compare to expectations?
- He ranks #22 in receiving yards per game, and the only WR2s ahead of him are Waddle and Higgins.
- Only 10 WRs have more TDs
- At 65 yards per game, that extrapolates out to 1,105 over 17 games. If he averages 65/game the rest of the year, it would be 1,040 in 16 games.
- He has 5 TDs in 10 games played so if he keeps up that pace he will have 8 TDs.
- The receptions are lighter, he would end at 53 at 3.3/game
Yes, the drops are not good, but if you were asked before the beginning of the season would you take a 53-1,040-8 stat line for Davis this year? I am guessing almost everyone would, especially if you said Diggs was going to also have the year he's having.
I have thought for a long time a lot of Bills fans overvalued Don Beebe, whose career highs with the Bills were 40 catches ('94) and 554 yards ('92). Davis is moving into undervalued territory.
Eh, I’m not going to complain about Davis but I feel he has been a slight disappointment so far as a #2 this season. He just needs more consistent play from week to week. I will happily take the projection to 50-1000-8. No one could complain about 20 yd/catch.
Comparing him to Don Beebe makes no sense. They played in different eras. The Kelly era Bills ran the ball a lot more. Beebe was a #3 with Buffalo, Davis is expected to be a #2 this season.
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17 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:
You mean we were closer in 2020 than in 2021. We lost to Houston in the Wild Card in 2019
Yes.
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3 hours ago, mrags said:
I’m sick of people making excuses and not admitting that last year was the closest we’ve had a shot to win a SB in at least 20+ years
The loss in KC was painful, 13 seconds, we would have beat Cincinnati, etc But what you say here is FALSE.
Last year we lost in the Divisional playoffs. In 2019 we lost in the Conference playoffs. We wnet further in 2019. It is a FACT that we were closer to the SB in 2019 than we were in 2020. This should not even be a debate but for the emotion of having KC on the ropes and then blowing it.
The excuses are made by fans who just assume we would have beat Cincinnati and then the Rams. We will never know that. The only FACT out there, the only thing written in the history books, shows that we made it further in 2019 than we did in 2020.
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4 hours ago, Professor Worthington said:
I will waffle here and say it’s a combination of all 3, just not sure what is contributing the most. I don’t think the elbow has anything to do with it. He’s not barreling down the field trucking defenders with a sore anything.
Still no other QB I would rather have. Clearly from a fan’s perspective my frustration comes from the dominating promise of the first 7 games to the current scratching and clawing for a W vs inferior teams.
What do you all think is the most important thing to get right?
The first 7 games are over. We have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. Other teams are good too and they have seen all the film they need to see. We are how we are. Allen is the reason we are a contender. You know nothing about his elbow so why bother speculating.
We are not going to win every game by 3 or 4 TDs. It is not happening at this time of year. We are still a top team in the AFC.
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4 hours ago, Joe Ferguson said:
Allen is playing hurt which is why he's been playing putrid the last several weeks.
You don't know what putrid is.
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Great win by the Bills. Hard fought game against a tough opponent, on the road, on a short week, after overcoming big adversity the week prior. Not to mention all the starters and key players that were out today.
Some of the fans here gave up and do nothing but blame and point fingers. The Bills are not going to win every game by 38-10. They are not going to win every game - period.
Some of the same fans complaining about losing close games are now complaining about winning a close game.
Anyone who has been a Bills fan, check that - a football fan, would be happy to get that win and would be looking at the positives to build on.
Next Thursday night in Foxboro. Expect a difficult challenge and a tough game. It will be like this every week, no matter who we play or were it is.
Enjoy the rest of Thanksgiving and Go Bills!
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24 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
Man our oline depth is poop…that’s a 2 score game if we don’t lose dawkins/morse
Or, our OL depth is at least serviceable. We won on a short week with backups in 3 positions.
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23 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:
Definitely not an Italian.
Sicilian.
That's not the same thing.
Actually, according to the story line his family was from Naples, Italy. Not Sicilian.
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3 minutes ago, Bigvinny said:
Starting o line in warmups
LT Dion Dawkins, LG Rodger Saffold, C Ryan Bates, RG Greg Van Roten, RT Spencer Brown
Surprised that they changed 2 positions with one injury. Not that I disagree with it either, just surprised that McD did that.
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Tre will know when he is ready to go. All this guessing is not productive and the speculating that he doesn't want to play is really bad.
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I say that play on TV, with him falling over after the throw - I worried that he got stuck in the turf.
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They came home instantly - they clicked their heel 3 times and said "there is no place like home".
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2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:
I like the call, liked the play, would like to see Hines get a shot at that play.
If Gilliam makes his block its a score with any running back
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1 minute ago, TH3 said:
No salary cap
True. Every other team had the same rules and constraints.
The Kelly era Bills could run the ball when they needed to, which is a big reason why they won at home in the cold and the wind. They were built for the wintry weather.
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15 hours ago, Success said:
I feel like this goes back to the Houston playoff game. The Bills seem to give up more 3rd and double-digit yards than any team I've seen.
Note: this is not a scientific observation. There are probably stats for this, but I don't know where to find them.
But man, does it seem like that's a bad down for us. I feel more confident when the other team has 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 14.
What gives? Am I overreacting?
I think you are over-reacting but he bottom line is we have played this season with mostly all backups in the secondary and even down to 3rd team players. They held up for awhile and they are finally showing a few cracks.
We need more heat on the QB to help the young and inexperienced secondary.
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2 minutes ago, Dr. K said:
Just had a look at the Chiefs remaining schedule.
vs. Rams,
at Bengals
at Broncos
at Texans
vs. Seahawks
vs. Broncos
at Raiders
I don't see any losses for them there except maybe against Cincinnati.
The situation sucks, but that's just the way it is. The Bills probably have to win out just to have a chance at home field, and the Chiefs will have to lose in an upset.
All the worrying about the Chiefs is not productive.
Bills had a harder schedule, we all knew that going in. Add in that the AFC East is now a better division than the AFC West.
Any team can win in any week. The Chiefs are not a perfect team. The Bills just need to work on what they can control.
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They Lions are the traditional NFL Thanksgiving game, going way back to 1934. They usually are a tough game on Thanksgiving even though they have not been consistently good in many decades.
Bills should win but this one but the Lions team is improving so I think it will be a close game.
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We need to improve the WR2 position and try moving Davis to #3 slot.
Crowder hurt is not helping and even he did not seem like a natural fit.
Shakir will hopefully break through at some point.
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28 minutes ago, Einstein said:
I agree.
I know a lot of fans think we have a home field advantage with the snow and cold but i’m not so sure. We are the not the
70’s SteelersKelly era Bills. We are a passing offense that relies on crisp routes and clean fields.Fixed. The Kelly era Bills had a better OL, several excellent blocking TEs, big powerful Fullbacks, and Thurman Thomas backed up by Kenny Davis. We could run when we wanted to run.
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16 hours ago, Italian Bills said:
Of course this bad week (not practicing enough and illness) didn’t help, but there’s something wrong with our passing game.. with Josh.
He doesn’t seem himself.
Could be the elbow.
I also believe that teams have figured out our passing game. Double Diggs, put CB1 on Davis - we don't get enough out of WR3 (we miss the Beasley of 2-3 years ago), sometimes we ignore the TE, sometimes Allen goes deep and ignores the RB in the passing game.
Throwing shorter and spreading the ball out to more players should help set up the bigger plays. Josh needs to be patient.
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9 hours ago, HOUSE said:
You were pretty darn good too
#10, Born in Pittsburgh
Dan Darragh was not very good at all. You may be thinking of Dennis Shaw, who was the offensive rookie of the year 1970, he was mediocre after that.
Darragh SUMMARY
Games 17
Cmp% 42.9
Yds 1353
Y/A 4.6
TD 4
Int 22
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Von Miller knee injury (update - ACL intact, awaiting diagnosis on lateral meniscus)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
People here use the term bust so casually. Even on second rounders.