syhuang

"Regression toward the mean" is caused by error being normally distributed. If error is not normally distributed, there's no guarantee that "regression toward the mean" will happen. In other words, if error exists but is not normally distributed, "regression toward the mean" may not happen.

Instead of looking at the completion % alone, you also need to look at the opponents. One of the reasons that Young had better completion percentage in last 4 games is that he faced bad pass defenses. Young's completion % of last 4 games are: JAC: 53.3% HOU: 65.5% IND: 60% NYG: 68.6% The numbers look good. However, if I add the "average completion percentage against" of these four defenses, you'll be able to find out that Young actually only had one excellent game (NYG) on completion %. This game happened to be the only game Young has QB rating over 100, his ratings on the other three games are between 70.1 and 73.6. JAC: 53.3% (54.5%) HOU: 65.5% (63.7%) IND: 60% (65.2%) NYG: 68.6% (59.2%) Just for fun, I also list Young's completion % before the NYG game: PHI: 36.4% (59.0%) BAL: 52% (55.6%)

If I understand the post right, the 50% conclusion doesn't include two Bills games. Thus, assume Bills have 50% chance to win each of their next two games, the overall percetange of making playoff should be around 12.5% (50% * 25%).

Don't we still get a chance if Broncos lose to 49ers in week 17 and KC finishes at 9-7?

You're making things up again. I never complain which period compares to which period. What I complained is that you can't only use your method on JP and never test your method on other quarterbacks to see if your results are meaningful in all cases. Again, you're wrong. It's not about these drives, some may think these drives should count, some may not. Get the point, it's about how you massage data by using "personal judgements" to keep the stats which should be ommitted by different threshold based on your own rules. You never bring in "personal judgements" on other drives. You need to be reminded again: Everyone can create any numbers he likes by (1) Create his own rules to omit the stats he doesn't want (2) Pick the threshold to favor him most (3) Use personal judgement to retain the stats which should be ommitted by different thresholds based on his rules (4) Simplify the whole system to favor his argument (5) Get the manufactured numbers benefit his opinion These manufactured numbers are useless and show nothing more than "I think".

Tom Brady ???....... move back 1 position ..... ??? Say it ain't so!!! This should not be allowed. They can not move Brady back. Don't they know who Brady is? Sky is falling.

Do you care to show any proof that winning percentage is significantly improved with 200+ passing yards? or you just don't care about winning and only like fancy stats? For your information, the weekly passing yard leaders this season are Week 14: Weinke 423 yards Week 13: Manning 351 yards Week 12: Leinart 405 yards Week 11: Brees 510 yards Week 10: Palmer 440 yards Week 9: Roethlisberger 433 yards Week 8: Brees 383 yards Week 7: Harrington 414 yards Week 6: Delhomme 365 yards Week 5: McNabb 354 yards Week 4: Brees 349 yards Week 3: Kitna 342 yards Week 2: Manning 400 yards Week 1: Pennington 319 yards And the final scores of these games are: Week 14: Weinke 423 yards (L, 13-27) Week 13: Manning 351 yards (L, 17-20) Week 12: Leinart 405 yards (L, 26-31) Week 11: Brees 510 yards (L, 16-31) Week 10: Palmer 440 yards (L, 41-49) Week 9: Roethlisberger 433 yards (L, 20-31) Week 8: Brees 383 yards (L, 22-35) Week 7: Harrington 414 yards (L, 24-34) Week 6: Delhomme 365 yards (W, 23-21) Week 5: McNabb 354 yards (W, 38-24) Week 4: Brees 349 yards (L, 18-21) Week 3: Kitna 342 yards (L, 24-31) Week 2: Manning 400 yards (W, 43-24) Week 1: Pennington 319 yards (W, 23-16) Overall: 4W 10L

Just one thing to add, Denver doesn't need to lose two of last three games. If Denver and Kansas City tied at 9-7, Denver is eliminated.

I didn't read TheWindySwedishSix post carefully. He has Cin and Jax going 10-6 and thus, winning the two wild cards. All the 9-7 teams miss playoff.

Maybe I understand the playoff tiebreak wrong, but isn't this one of the scenarios that Bills go to playoff? In this case, Bills beat Jets based on better conference record and KC beat DEN because of better division record. Then, Bills wins wild card over KC because of better conference record. Chris Brown playoff breakdown

Didn't you get the memo from JP bashers that no matter how Vince plays on field, Vince has "it"?

Then how come you failed to notice Leinart's QB rating was 76.0 yesterday and Losman had a 101.6 rating against Vikings earlier this season?

Don't need to be sorry, nobody cares if you're impressed or not.

No, they didn't win the super bowl. You're the one saying this and thank god you finally realize it's not a superbowl. People are just happy their team had a come-from-behind win last week. And no, nobody cares if you're impressed or not.

Yes, every Raiders game has been on TV this year. However, I could find ticket available at ticketmaster.com on Saturday before several home games, but still, none of Raiders game was blacked out.

will never?? Wow, even NFL coaches still need time to see how JP develops and don't make this kind of statement now. However, you already know it. This is amazing, you must either have more football knowledge than NFL coaches or just run your mouth too much, I take latter.

Is it you, Mrs. Holcomb?

Funny, you're the only one saying to put JP into HOF. No one even says JP will be great. He played a good game and showed he "could be" a good franchise quarterback.

<JP bashers> Losman still doesn't have "it", a comeback drive against Texans doesn't count. Any win against a sub .500 team will be put a '*' next to W </JP bashers>

I actually want to see what's his opinion on JP's performance this week. But I guess he'll hide somewhere until JP has a bad game.

Jarthus31, aka. Mr. Half Glass, Have you made up your mind what would you like Bills to do on third-and-short? You complained when they pass, you also complained when they rush. Punt?

Where are JP bashers when we need them? They'll probably be in hibernation this week

Mr. half glass, what do you want Bills to do on 3rd-and-short? You complain when they pass, you complain when they run. You didn't complain when they converted 4-and-1 by a pass though. Make up your mind unless you want Bills to punt on 3rd-and-short.

Big Ben just threw a TD to bring his team back to 10-13. Like JP bashers always said, Big Ben has "it". right? Max!!

Here comes all the JP bashers.