Chaos

This aged well

There are logical reasons to block players from all gambling, even casino gambling. Simiar to drug problems, gambling additictions can cause big issues, and NFL players are in a unique position to "solve" their gambling problems with questionable play. Most of us can't pay off gambing debts by doing a bit less than usual at our jobs.

McDermott has done enough that if he makes it to the Super Bowl this year, his fans are entitled to say "I told you so". If the Bills bow out at the divisional round or earlier, his critics are entitled to say "I told you so". Its a pretty clear line.

Denver had a bad coach (playoff failure reeves) Bernie was not an elite QB , so I don't get your point.

What are there playoff percentages? How far do there teams advance in an average year. Regular season percentages have a lot to do with the division you play in, and the rest of your schedule. Also, McDermott has been blessed with a top QB for all but the first 1 1/2 years of his tenure. Belichek had that in NE, and did much more with it. Reid never had that in Philadelphia. Once he has had that in KC, he has done much more with it.

Beane has built a team that is consistently in the top 8. This is a fact. Nothing to dispute.

We will definitely be happy this year, in your scenario.

Why is it laughable? There are many occasions where fans are right and the front offices are not. Certainly not the every time. Nuts laughable to suggest the fans can’t get it right some of the time. I suppose it’s your prerogative to state it would be laughable for yourself to ever be right instead of a coach or GM, but you shouldn’t extrapolate from your own shortcomings.

How does the Oliver extension help with the 2024 Cap, allowing us to go WR1 hunting?

Top Eight is our consistent finish.

do you mean "serviceable" or are we taking Ed to Wimbledon.

How many DT's are on NFL Roster? Do you really think Oliver is currently the 11th best? This isn't like QBs where each team has 1. Most teams (particularly the Bills rotate multiple DTs). Oliver did not even rank in the top 32, in snaps played in 2022. PFF ranked Oliver 43 best interior lineman in 2023. Not that PFF is the begin all and end all of player evaluations, but they do get paid a lot of money by NFL teams for their analysis, so it is not like it totally make believe either. This extension is based on Beane and McDermott being smarter than everyone else when grading interior linemen in the NFL.

the biggest indicator of future performance is past performance. I suspect that if you lined up all the fourth year veterans at every position, and ranked their most recent two years purely on production, and then four years later reranked them based on the second four years production, that except for injuries, there would be very little reranking. Hoping players are going to improve at a faster rate than there peers is not really a strategy,

based on the kick the can down the road actions taken so far, and if people expect oliver to instantly restructure to save another 7 mm of 2023 cap space, then you may have to modify your comment to read ...."Our FO's stated approach"

Prior to the Oliver signing the bills were 14 million over the 2024 cap. Restructuring money out of 2023 has an impact in future years. We saw the impact on the Rams last year. Cap problems are an actual thing.

Statistics don't work particularly well for football in general, compared to MLB at least. It seems like teams should have some concept analogous to WAR (wins against replacement). It seems to me, that DT has a pretty small impact among all players. Oliver is going to be better than some guy get $4 million a season. The tougher question is that difference worth 13 million, or can that 13 million have a bigger impact at a different position.

The board response to a Gabe Davis extension is going to be epic.

Most Super Bowls are won by teams with the deepest DT rotation. You can look it up.

A first round pick who does not play significant snaps as a rookie, has wasted a valuable rookie contract year.

Does anyone who posts on the board have a staff of professional scouts to assist them on personnel decisions? Don't sell people short.

This did not age well

Reason for Optimism: Wizardly extension of Ed Oliver.

I don't like or dislike the rental approach. My only point is despite what any GM says, the rules dictate that everybody more or less follow the same strategy. Teams are not at all in the same place in the cycle, so it may look different. But the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills and Bengals are all following the exact same strategy because that the rules force it. The team that is better at executing what the rules force does the best. Last year I think the Chiefs played 11 different starters from the previous season at times. Almost the opposite of continuity. They had a brilliant draft netting four productive starters. If the Bills had the chiefs draft and FA signing, and the Chiefs had the Bills draft and FA signing the results may have flipped flopped.

A review of the Patriots run of multiple championships shows that only a small number of the same core players were on the roster between championships, and of course between the first and last only one player remained on the roster. I am not aware of any data that demonstrates the championship teams have less turnover than other teams.