Billl

How do you completely disregard the most important part of my statement without missing a beat? It’s a lot easier to make great draft picks when you’re drafting second overall than when you’re in the twenties. SF essentially tanked in what was supposed to be the first year of their window. Shanahan didn’t get killed over it because he could point to the JG injury. As a result, they got to draft Bosa. That wasn’t a brilliant pick. It was a complete no brainer that most competent franchises never get to make because competent franchises don’t typically draft second overall. That’s the very definition of an outlier. Nobody was pointing to SF as a model franchise 9 months ago. People were pointing at the Rams. How did that work out?

That doesn’t make them any less of an outlier. SF two years ago was in a similar position to Buffalo in 2019, but JG got hurt and the season cratered. They drafted Nick Bosa at 2 whereas Allen had a healthy season and will pick 26th. The 26th pick last year was also a DE, but it was Montez Sweat instead of Bosa. Then in the second round, they got Deebo. Do you think they make the Super Bowl by drafting Sweat and Paris Campbell instead of Bosa and Samuel? I sure don’t. If Buffalo drafts the next Bosa and Deebo, they're in the mix for a Super Bowl next year.

SF is an outlier because they built a team to compete in 2018 but then lost their QB early in the season and were able to draft another star with the second pick in the draft. If the Bills could draft Chase Young and then have the second picks in each of the following rounds, it would be a huge boost to the franchise. Combine that with the fact they they got equal or better production at the QB spot while spending only a fraction of the assets to acquire him, and you’ve got an outlier. I don’t know if their plan is going to work, but McBeane have a vision, and they have executed it to perfection. If they targeted the right guy at QB, the Bills will be a factor in the AFC for a long time.

At what point does it stop mattering what a guy did or did not do in college? I would submit that coming into his third season in the league, it’s time to judge him on his results. There are no bonus points awarded to players who were considered “projects” coming out of college. Tie breakers aren’t awarded to teams with the most “raw” prospect under center. The past 2 MVPs were both won by second year QBs who were considered projects as well. Today, they are the guys who defensive coordinators know that even if their teams do everything right, Lamar or Pat could still put up 400 yards and 4 TDs. So when is it okay to judge Allen not on how bad he “wants to be great” or on his “ceiling” or whatever else people want to fall back on? At some point you are who the back of your football card says you are.

There are only two TEs in the league who are actual difference makers, and they aren't going anywhere. No point in paying for a JAG. Just draft one in the middle rounds and hope for the best.

Detroit should swap pics with Washington. The Redskins want Chase Young, and this would allow Detroit to get a haul from someone wanting Tua while ensuring that Washington still gets their guy.

Green has played 8 seasons, and his highest catch rate is 66%. That would be the worst of Diggs’s career excluding his rookie season. Diggs has a catch rate of 68.4% for his career compared to Green’s 58.7%. They have an identical 8.7 yards per target for their careers. If Green is better, it’s not by much and that’s if he’s healthy.

Sign him to a cheap “prove it” contract. (Said about established players like A.J. Green.)

If a 27 year old with 12 career catches is factoring into the draft strategy, this franchise has serious issues.

25 year old WR who has been to 4 Pro Bowls in 5 seasons? No thanks. He dropped 4 of the 119 passes thrown to him last year, and this list is whose who of bad receivers. https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

This place is bi-polar. On the one hand, everyone wants to blame lack of offensive production on the WRs. On the other hand, nobody wants to spend a high draft pick on one, nor do they want to sign a number 1 in FA. Everyone wants the juice, but nobody thinks it's worth the squeeze.

Do you also think that filling out brackets erodes college basketball fandom?

8 home, 8 away, 1 neutral site

You’re not wrong, but what nobody is considering is that not having a cap is an even bigger advantage for the Chiefs. Both Dak and Pat making $20 million leaves both teams with a ton of money to build the rest of the roster up. If Pat makes $40 million and Dak makes $38 million, Dallas is even farther behind. It would be to the Chiefs advantage to drive up QB salaries as high as possible for the whole league.

When 90% of the fanbase is saying they’d make a trade, that’s a pretty good sign that the trade is unrealistic. The Cardinals aren’t giving away David Johnson plus a third round pick for nothing. They know they aren’t competing this year, so they can eat the money this year and get a better draft slot next year. Why would they give up picks during a rebuild?

So the best way to find star players is to draft them in the middle rounds. I’ll remember that when everyone here is blaming the offense’s struggles on lack of weapons for Josh. The Bills have such a great track record of finding WRs that there’s no need to draft a blue chipper. Just shake the third round game breaking WR tree and grab as many as you can carry.

Neither Minnesota nor Arizona would be dumb enough to make that trade.

Diggs would cost pick 22 at a minimum. Number 1 receivers who are 26 years old with below market contracts don’t come cheap despite what some tweet said.

You get average at best talent drafting skill position players in mid rounds. Everyone on here talks about how Allen and Mahomes would look if you switched their supporting casts. Then when there’s a potentially elite target that costs what potentially elite targets cost, suddenly everyone’s fine with Great Value brand weapons. What does that have to do with anything? The Chiefs didn’t draft a QB in the first round for 34 years because the last one busted so hard. Should they have passed on Mahomes because a previous GM made a bad pick? If McBeane thinks he’s the goods, then pull the trigger. The team was a hair away from winning the first playoff game in 25 years. The offense put up 19 points in 5 quarters against a team that gave up 7 TDs in 3 quarters a week later. Adding a true #1 receiver makes every other matchup on the field more favorable. The team’s window is officially open. If Josh is the guy, he’s going to start getting really expensive in 2 years. It’s time to put a finished product on the field now.

Golladay has had a catch percentage between 56% and 59% every year of his career. His production is the result of volume rather than efficiency. 116 targets last year resulted in only 65 catches. Compare that to Diggs who had 63 catches on only 94 targets. Golladay's TD # this year was exceptional, but that's an outlier this far in his career. That one start notwithstanding, there's nothing particularly special about him. He's a lower tier #1. Diggs is a much better player.

People are looking at this backwards. Mahomes having a market setting contract helps the Chiefs more than it hurts them because he's actually worth it. If Pat gets $40,000,000 someone like Carson Wentz who is only 50% as good is still going to get 90% of that amount. Would you rather have Mahomes at $40m or Wentz at $36m? That's an easy win for the teams that have legit stars. The teams with good but not elite QBs on second and third contracts are the ones who are going to be hurt the most by this. That's part of the reason this is such a huge year for Josh. If he has a season in 2020 similar to or slightly better than 2019, what do you do with him? He's going to command $35,000,000 a year for 5 years. Do you pay him?

Yeah. He's been really bad to this point in his career. One of the lowest rated QBs both years and dead last in completion percentage both years. I don't know if that's ever been done before. That i still think he has a puncher's chance of being a franchise QB is not in any way extreme. Talking MVP is extreme.

Yeah. I realize that the homers around here think that pegging Allen as only having a 40% chance of being a franchise QB is an extreme take. Funny that nobody here is predicting that Mitch Trubisky is going to be a factor in the MVP race. I can promise you that the average non Bills fan has a lower opinion of Allen than I do, though.

This thread is basically a terrible take contest on both sides. I get routinely criticized for my opinion on Allen, and I'm the most moderate one on here. To this point, he's been a terrible QB that has shown flashes of greatness but who also makes way too many negative plays. The game is clearly too fast for him at times, and he has a tendency to panic. He also has a bad habit of tucking his elbow to his body and short arming passes, especially on deep throws. There's the bad side of Josh. The potential is real, though. If he's going to unlock it, it's going to be this year. A year ago, he was 150-1 for MVP, so his stock has risen since then. After his third season as a starter, there shouldn't be anything left to debate. There's no need to use the word "potential" every again. He will be what the back of his football card says he is. Whether that will be a franchise QB or a placeholder for the next guy in 2021 is yet to be determined. As for me, I give him about a 40% chance of being the man. I would have said about 10% when he was drafted and about 25% after last season. He's tough to figure out.

Why would Jackson have more longevity issues than Josh? Allen has been injured constantly throughout his playing career. He broke his collarbone in high school. He broke his right clavicle in 7 places in his first college start. He missed multiple games his last year in college due to a sprained shoulder. He missed multiple games his rookie season, and he got knocked out of the Patriots game this year.