Billl

So if we just goose his numbers slightly, you can pretend that he meets the bare minimum level of competence. “Hey dad. Yeah I failed my test, but good news. If you take just 4 questions that I got wrong and pretend I got them right, I would have earned the lowest possible D minus.” He was dead last in completion percentage in 2018. He was dead last in 2019. The good news is that 33 QBs qualified in 2018 while only 32 qualified in 2019, so he moved up from 33rd to 32nd.

That’s certainly food for thought. Why don’t you show me the top two or three in each of those categories for the past two years, and we’ll see if those are more indicative of top tier QB play that QBR, QB rating, YPA, completion percentage, and PPG. I know that when I’m trying to figure out what’s what, top 8 in “completed air yards per completion” isn’t the first thing I check, but maybe it should be.

So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect. Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing. QBR: He's not very good QB rating: He's not very good Completion percentage: He's not very good PPG: He's not very good YPA: He's not very good Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote. It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football. Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP. I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB. That's just one man's opinion, though. You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject.

OK boomer, here you go. https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula

Yes. And metrics like QB rating take these variables into account. Turns out he's about the 25th best QB in the league by that analysis as well.

The more I look at this, the worse the "60% completion percentage doesn't matter" crowd looks. The Bills were 9-0 when completing 60% and 1-5 when they didn't. The one win was against Pittsburgh when Duck Hodges threw 4 picks, the Steelers fumbled 4 times, and the defense held the Steelers to 229 total yards. Even with all that, it still took a fourth quarter comeback to win.

Points scored when the Bills complete 60%: 23.5 per game. When they don't: 15.4

The Bills were 9-1 in games when completing at least 60% of the pass attempts. They were 0-5 in the others.

It wasn't a back shoulder throw. It was underthrown. There's a difference. Even the team site calls the catch "incredibly tough".

None of those throws went 40 yards past the line. Beasley's was 25 yards. Knox's was 17. Brown's was 22 against Miami and nearly 40 against Pittsburg, but it was a poorly underthrown ball that Brown made a great play on.

Brees isn't A classic example. He's THE example. Who are these many others?

Best chance for a home game is against Kansas City, as Mahomes is replacing TB as the face of the league. If the Chargers sign Brady, that's another possibility. Seattle with Russell Wilson would be the next most likely. If both teams are good and Darnold is playing really well, the Jets are a possibility. There really isn't a lot of star power on the home schedule other than that.

Dropped passes is a meaningless stat anyway. 23 players dropped 7 or more on the season. Julian Edelman led league with 13. Others with 7+ include Deebo Samuel, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Davanta Adams, DK Metcalf, and Todd Gurley. They aren't meaningless in terms of winning games, but they are statistically irrelevant.

I wonder how many receivers in this draft will rack up 2500 yards and 17 TDs by age 23 like Sammy did in Buffalo or 4300 yards and 31 TDs by age 26 like he has in his career to date. If McBeane can identify those guys, he can successfully avoid them.

Brees is the exception to every rule, and even he completed over 60% in college. If Josh turns into a franchise QB, 20 years from now fans of underperforming QBs will point to him to show that their guy is also going to turn out great. 98% of the time they will be wrong.

His receivers do tend to drop a lot of passes. Beasley, for example dropped 6 passes this season after dropping only 1 last year. He also had a catch rate of 63% this season after having a rate of 75% last season. Did he just forget how to catch, or do some QBs just throw better balls than others? Drew Brees throws accurate passes. He also throws them with touch and perfect spirals. His receivers don't drop many balls. Allen throws less accurate passes. He hasn't mastered touch, and he throws a lot of wobblers. His receivers drop more balls than other teams. Is there a connection? I don't know, but it would mane sense that a player catching passes that are consistently perfectly thrown is less likely to drop a ball than a player who is routinely forced to adjust.

This place is great. Let's just add 500 passing yards to Josh's passing yards and then compare his fake stats to Manning's actual stats. You want to "adjust" the stats to account for number of chances each QB had? Cool. Allen had 461 passing attempts and 109 rushing attempts for a total of 3599 yards on 570 total attempts. That comes to 6.3 yards per attempt. Manning had 533 passes and 35 rushes for a total of 4208 yards on 568 total attempts. That comes to 7.4 yards per attempt.

His 6 runs prior to that drive went for 1, 0, 3, 4, 0, and 0. He wasn’t wearing anyone down. He was getting his ass handed to him. The KC defense was rested after their offense had been on the field for over 20 minutes of actual time on the previous scoring drive. How many times are you going to run into a wall down 2 scores in the fourth quarter trying to grind out a drive? Keep in mind that the last 5 KC drives went for 74 yards, 63 yards, 86 yards, 37 yards, and 73 yards. They were bringing a knife to a gun fight, and people are complaining that they didn’t use a sharp enough knife.

He got the ball 16 times in the first half for 63 yards. 13 was on one play, so he gained 50 yards on the other 15 runs and never came close to breaking one. They ran 54 total plays in the game. Once you fall behind by multiple scores in the second half, grinding out 3-4 yards per play doesn’t make much sense. Couple that with the fact that KC had just marched down the field on a 13 play drive that ran out the entire second half of the third quarter and spilled into the fourth. That drive, KC only faced two third downs, and they were 3rd and 1 and 3rd and 2. When the heavily favored opponent is moving the ball at will on offense, bottling up the run on defense, and protecting a two score lead in the fourth quarter, you don’t have the luxury of playing three yards and a cloud of dust football as the clock ticks down on your season. That’s the thing about passing teams versus running teams. Both work when things go according to script. Passing teams can keep passing when they fall behind. Running teams can’t.

Watkins led the Chiefs in postseason receiving yards by 45 last year with 176. He leads by 26 this year with 190 and counting. Hope in one hand, ***** in the other...

Shenault looks like a monster when he can dominate inferior players with his athleticism, but he won't be able to play bully ball in the league. His technique is poor off the line, and his route running is mediocre at best. His upside is incredible, but he's extremely raw.

If there’s one thing you can’t have on your team, it’s a guy without heart or competitive fire hauling in 60 yard touchdowns to put a trip to the Super Bowl on ice. No thank you.

He’s got 366 receiving yards in the postseason so far the last 2 seasons. You don’t think that would have made a difference in an overtime loss?

Who is that? Singletary had 19 touches when you include his season high 6 receptions. He averaged just under 14 per game on the season.

Dunn had over 2,000 yards rushing and 800 yards receiving in his first two seasons. (He’s directly behind OJ Simpson and Shady McCoy on the career rushing list and has another 4,000 yards receiving.) How is Singletary already better than that? Evidently the team has a hybrid of Russell Wilson and Pat Mahomes at QB and a first ballot HOFer at RB. Not sure how 22 teams scored more points.