Billl

Tyreek and Mahomes have only played two games together this season. Hill was hurt early week 1 and came back week 6. Mahomes was hurt early week 7 and just returned last week. Yes, Kansas City has superior skill position players to Buffalo, but to pretend like that's one of the primary reasons one is the best player in the league and the other is at the bottom of the league in QB rating is to completely ignore reality. With roughly the same number of starts, one is about to sign the biggest contact in NFL history while the other is hoping to improve enough to keep his job.

In Mahomes's last two games, he went 10/11 (91%) for 76 yards and a TD before getting injured and then went 36/50 (72%) for 446 yards and 3 TDs. He didn't throw a pick in either game. Where are the "many poor throws" he's making at? When I watch him play, I see a guy who is in total control before the snap, calls out the defense, sets the protection, and throws with anticipation right on target to a receiver who usually is at the moment of peak separation. The defense has to cover the entire field because the moment they don't, he makes them pay. Interestingly enough, his over the top deep ball is the one he struggles with, but he still hits it often enough that defenses have to gameplan for it. Cleveland stacked the box against the Bills, and Josh couldn't make them pay. You will NEVER see a team play the Chiefs with a gameplan of putting 8 men in the box and making Mahomes beat them. He'd throw left handed no look passes behind his back just to not get bored.

This is quickly becoming my new favorite narrative on the board to defend sweet baby Josh. First it was "he's not an inaccurate passer, he's just imprecise". Then it was "leading the NFL in fumbles since he's been in the league doesn't mean he has a ball security issue as long as his teammates recover a lot of them". Now it's "spending a high first and two second round picks isn't a big investment because rookies hey paid less than veterans". I especially like this one because you could literally trade your entire draft for the next three years for the right to draft Trevor Lawrence next year and claim that it wasn't a large investment at the QB position. It's brilliant.

You're basically saying that the media will criticize bad QBs regardless of whether they are signed in FA, traded for, or drafted. What do you expect them to say? "Buffalo's got the 31st rated passer in the league, but good news...at least they spent a ton of draft capital on him." I don't think anyone would have criticized the team if the FA they signed was Peyton Manning or if the QB they drafted was Pat Mahomes.

Yeah kinda. He was at least somewhat effective. The issue isn't that too many pass plays were called on first down, though. JA was much more effective when thrown against 3 DB looks (which was generally the case on first down) than he was against base and nickel/dime packages (which were generally the look on second/third and long). It's pretty clear from these numbers that the solution to facing an 8 man front isn't too keep running the ball regardless of how ineffective it proves to be. You beat 8 man fronts by throwing the ball effectively. The play calling balance was appropriate at 64% passes vs 36% runs. The moral of the story is that it doesn't matter what plays you call if your QB can't consistently throw the ball when the defense dares you to. JA had some success when the defense sold out to stop the run, but he didn't really punish them enough to force them to adjust. When Cleveland was able to either stuff the run or defend the pass with only 3 DBs to set up second and long, Allen was borderline inept. Cleveland had a gamelan on defense, and it worked perfectly. When you give up 14 points in today's NFL, that's a dominant performance.

I just looked at every play called on first down and the result. This includes positive or negative penalties. There were 26 plays run on first down. 16 passing plays netting 136 yards (8.5 ypp). This includes a 35 yard PI penalty. 10 running plays netting 19 yards (1.9 ypp). This includes two 10 yard holding penalties. To put the running struggles on first down into context, here is the down and distance of every play following a first down run (in order). Second and 8 Second and 1 First and 10 Second and 8 Second and 9 Second and 6 First and 20 Second and 14 Second and 7 First and 20 In other words, the last 7 times they called running plays on first down they found themselves behind the sticks creating obvious passing downs on the following plays. There were a grand total of two successful running plays on first down out of 10 tries. The Browns stacked the box and decided to make JA beat them. He couldn't do it.

It's impressive that Mahomes will take a big step forward after his second season as a starter. He's already won an MVP in his first season as a starter and is in the mix to win another in his second season.

What is your deal? Are you really trying to pretend that it's disingenuous of me to compare stats from games he started? You got me, I guess. Congratulations. You've blown the lid off the grand conspiracy to make people think that a QB who was ranked 24th last year versus 31st this year hasn't improved in any material way. It couldn't be that I've simply got a different opinion. Extra credit for sniffing out that poster who was clearly just a Colorado State plant sent to troll Bills fans. That's just quality message board detective work right there.

I only used the yardage starts from games he started. His yards per game are identical year over year. I also listed out his passing and rushing TDs. You've shown that the difference between the two on a per game basis are essentially identical. Fumbles speak to ball security, full stop. Allen's defenders want to treat it as Schrodinger's fumble...as if it's only poor ball security if the other team recovers. That's not the case. He leads the league in fumbles since he was drafted. There's no conspiracy to discredit Allen as a QB. The fact of the matter is that he's essentially the same player he was last year. He's improved a little in some areas. He's regressed a little in others. He's shown that he's good enough to beat bad football teams when his defense plays well. He was 24th in QBR last year, and he's 31st this year (immediately behind Mayfield, Dalton, Rudolph, Darnold, and Trubisky and ahead of only Mariota). The only way to say that he's improved materially is to cite the "eye test" which is just a way of saying that it's true just because you want it to be true. When I use the same test, I see a guy who has immense physical gifts but who is slow through his progressions, lacks anticipation, and has inconsistent accuracy. I think he will get better, and he belongs in the league, but he's done nothing to show me he's going to be special.

The yards per have stat includes his passing yards plus rushing yards. You seem to be suggesting that the fact that his teammates have recovered the majority of his fumbles means that he's improved his ball security. That's a strange position to take. Halfway through the season, he's put it on the ground 10 times. 12 led the league last year, and Josh is on pace for 20. I didn't vote in the poll and can see progress he's made in some areas and regression in others. The fact that this poll is so lopsided is more a function of the site on which it's posted than Allen's actual play. His performance hasn't changed materially from last season either direction. Baker and Darnold have regressed. Jackson has improved. Rosen, and Allen are about the same as they were last season. The only people tasting this as some sort of hot take are those looking at things with their hearts rather than their heads.

2018 stats: 237 yards per game, 10 TD passes, 12 INTs, 8 rushing TDs, 8 fumbles 2019 stats: 237 yards per have, 10 TD passes, 7 INTs, 4 rushing TDs, 10 fumbles.

Trubisky had the same knock last year. His defenders said that it didn't matter that his numbers were poor and pointed to his 11-3 record as evidence that he was progressing into a franchise QB despite the fact that the record was much more a function of having the NFL's best defense than anything Mitch was doing. Suddenly Chicago's defense is only good but not dominant, and Trubisky's defenders have all but disappeared.

His passing yards have decreased in every single game this year versus his previous game with only one exception (and that exception is because his numbers against the Patriots were exceptionally low). Allen is an unusual case in that the eye test tells you that he should be good, but the numbers never support that. This was the case for him in Junior college, at Wyoming, and still is in Buffalo. He's like the anti Kirk Cousins.