FireChans

It’s over? Really?

Sorry, I wasn't referring to you in particular, just that I think he was a little bit of a trendy kicked dog on this board, particularly because his personal competition in the secondary. FWIW, Levi also crushed the other dudes in pretty much other metric. Not saying much based on their level of play. I guess if the eye-test says that Elam has much better technique, ability, awareness and reliability, but allowed a 70% completion rate and a 96.3 passer rating when the ball was thrown his way, I would ask, of what use is the eye test?

I don't think it was a myth, particularly last year. Last year was his best year in coverage by a MILE. He allowed a passer rating of 69.9 last year. The two years prior his number was >100. Now that's a flawed stat at Edmunds position in particular, but I think last year he was necessary for our pass coverage because of how piss poor the secondary was at times. This year, we have the boys all back. Edmunds/Hamlin/Dane/Poyer/CB2 rotation vs Dodson/Hyde/Tre/Poyer/CB2 rotation isn't really close imo in comparing pass defenses. I go with option #2 all day long.

A legitimate bad take. Not only does this ignore that for the majority of Levi's career, he had borderline All-Pro Tre White across the field, along with Poyer and Hyde (gee, if I was an offensive coordinator, I wonder who I would throw at), but it's also completely not supported by the numbers. Levi Wallace his last season in Buffalo, aka sans Tre White for a large part of the year, allowed a passer rating of 72.6 when targeted. Dane last year allowed 82.1. Elam allowed a tremendously bad 96.3. Benford allowed 84.1. Levi Wallace was the victim of being a solid player surrounding by stars, and the weakest player in the secondary by default. And this caused him to get vilified by the people who don't know what they are talking about. He's a better player the the three "solid depth" amigos who can't seem to break out of the mediocre paper bag they are stuck in.

That's pretty hair splitty for me but sure. He took the unknown + Bernard + Dodson over paying Tremaine.

We didn’t draft Elam to be just as good as Levi Wallace.

Correct. Beane saw Bernard and Dodson and said, “I’d rather play them than give Edmunds that contract” lol

Meh, as long as they can play the run decently I’m not sweating. On the back end, if Poyer/Hyde/White can perform to their usual standards, I doubt our pass defense takes much of a dive if at all.

Who would want AJE and what would they give with everything you said? He’s done enough to probably not be a vet min guy in FA. Which means he will count in the comp pick formula, and keep in mind that Gabe will likely be getting paid elsewhere. AJE has more value on the roster so we can try to get a third when Gabe walks.

Trey Lance wishes he had Matt Barkley’s 2018 Jets game under his belt.

He’s so bad that Beane and co. watched Bernard and Dodson and said “yeah, we still don’t wanna pay him” lol

I agree with all of that. The 2019 draft in particular stings because we were drafting high with our QB on the roster and didn’t get a homerun in those rounds. Ed Oliver being just a good starter and Cody Ford being a bust is the biggest difference between us and the Bengals. They hit their high picks, we did not.

Wonderful post. The microscopic is always larger on Buffalo here because of course it is. When you’re comparing the Bills to 31 other teams, you’re gonna find lots of things that aren’t perfect. We don’t have as great of a defense as X, Y QB has been better in the playoffs recently etc etc. When you compare them to a singular team, like the Niners, you go “huh, the Niners have some problems and aren’t all that different.” And if you compare the Bills to every team in the league, we have been a top level team with a top QB and there’s about 23 teams that would kill themselves to be us right now.

I'm growing increasingly concerned that the McD mutiny thing after 13 seconds may still be lingering. Not sure why. Team just has felt off.

It's the latter. It is one thing if Benford/Jackson were playing like All-Pros or even high end starters. Unfortunately, they (and Elam) are all in that "serviceable" bucket. Levi Wallace was serviceable. We got rid of him and drafted Elam, which was a clear signal that the Bills wanted to upgrade at the CB2 position. Strategically, it made a lot of sense, a cheap, cost-controlled first rounder to pair until Tre White's contract was over or we moved on. In an ideal world, Elam would have taken the starting job last year (he had a perfect opportunity with only Dane above him on the depth chart), and he failed to do so. Even worse, now with a year of NFL experience, he can't separate from lesser players physically. Now, all that being said, there's a non-zero chance Tre White is on the chopping block after 2023 regardless if he looks like the ghost he did last year. Hopefully, he shakes off the cobwebs and returns to form. It gave me 2016 vibes. Sometimes you don't need to wait three years to realize the whole group wasn't up to snuff. If Benford and Cook can also see PT, it will soften the blow, but agreed entirely. I will be surprised if Elam is a Bill in 2024.

Man, you guys are getting me excited for him. This could be the best $50 bucks I ever spent.

I would add that this regime has been GREAT at getting "solid" play out of the CB2 position, largely due to Tre's skill, and our S duo backing them up. Levi, Dane, Benford are all examples of guys who are not that physically gifted but have able to perform well in spots due to our coaching and scheme. If Elam with his physical gifts can't muster up a level of play consistently superior to that, it's a large disappointment and I think McD and Beane would agree.

Dane Jackson is going to win the job. It is a problem that Elam can't beat out two super late round drafted players, neither of which are that good. We may as well have drafted a different position in the first round of 2022 and kept Levi Wallace around.

One of the biggest criticisms of this regime (by myself included) has been their drafting so I wanted to keep that strictly draft related. Otherwise, I would have had to include the Jimmy G trade etc etc.

WR’s generally don’t wait til year 4 to emerge.

For sure NOT. Call him a TE and you can pay him less when he’s an FA.

This is a lot of words. I ain’t gonna read all of it. I’m glad you can say it was a good defensive performance (I know I know they only allowed 3 and scored 7, but the Ravens rushed 30+ times for 150 yards and we lost the TOP battle, the horror). I also think it’s interesting that you like to pin the offensive woes on McD. I’ve never really seen or heard that before. I will keep that in mind when discussing our incredible offensive performances to make sure McD gets the credit he deserves. as far as the words in your mouth angle, I do love that you read my mind that I was “implicitly saying McD was a great coach” because of one defensive performance lmao. You should google “projection.”

Sucks so bad. One of the bigger what if guys

I will say if Kincaid pops and takes the starting slot position from the jump, that will be so so so huge for this offense. I’m very excited about this kid.

Only on the LA expressway, fair enough.