Mikie2times

The year before Pederson, Jacksonville ranked 32nd in points. His first year they ranked 7th. Eagles went from 20th to 9th to 1st. He hasn't been able to maintain a high level of success after that initial surge. He's not HC material. He doesn't have the personality for it. But he checks a lot of boxes. Worked with some great minds, has a had a lot of success in the league, and won't be poached immediately.

We could do a lot worse than Pederson. I actually like that thought as he could stick around for awhile.

I will also add for every ounce of athletic ability given to Lamar he had to trade away equal amounts of physical appearance. He has to be one of the uglier dudes to ever lace them up. Which is fine by me, I eat red meat and bang fine straight women, however the league deserves a more appealing QB like Joshua.

I agree with this. Manning won two early, then finished 2nd and 3rd not getting another until he won the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t say it’s a guaranteed rule but I think an element exists with voting where it’s like, you fooled me. I’m not going to do this right away again unless I have no choice and this year they certainly do. Then you also have Burrow mucking it up from a statistic standpoint. It makes it sort of like, well, all three are about as good as it gets statistically (even if Allen is a hair behind). Really, all three have produced MVP years statistically. Which sort of leads us to where we are. Allen has just produced more MVP moments. His team is doing the best. He has the least to work with of the three and has done more on his own. Which I think gives him the nod. With that can we also say Ravens or even Bengals fans have some reason to B word? Well sure, if Allen put up a year like Burrow or Lamar and didn’t win we would think it’s a damn travesty. For those that think it’s already happened like that, the voters hate INT’s, always have. I don’t know of any recent winner under a 3 to 1 TD to INT passing the ball. If people want to include rushing stats to get the 3 to 1 that’s fine, but what I’m saying is I don’t believe it has happened in modern NFL history from a passing standpoint point. The voters would take 28 and 5 vs 40 and 12 as an example. Allen should get it this year and after this game from Lamar I almost think it’s a formality. He needed a truly special performance and it was just sort of meh.

With a defensive first HC it’s unlikely we will ever have the continuity on offense we would like. If you’re OC of an Allen led offense and you aren’t getting HC interviews by year 2 you likely shouldn’t be here We will not bring in any alphas OC’s who are recent HC’s.

Jackson= better stats Allen= better record Allen= bigger moments Allen= worse talent

I thought Linval Joseph did well here.

He had Luke Kuechly in Carolina and then went on to spend a premium asset on Edwards. He doesn't want Reggie Ragland and I don't think he wants Bernard either. He wants a physical freak and is willing to invest to get it. We just had so many priorities this offseason and likely next as well, I'm not sure we can afford to go that direction.

My concern with the Ravens is our success was during the Greg Roman era. We have only played them one time in Monkens system and Lamar has been in MVP contention both years they have been in it. Not to mention they have the #1 ranked EPA defense in football since week 8. The Ravens are a damn good team if Lamar performs adequately. Which isn't to say I want anything to do with the Bengals, I just can't help but dismiss our previous performances vs Baltimore in the Greg Roman era. I don't think they're worth any warm and fuzzies at this point.

Regardless if you use it, EPA is more accurate in forecasting future results than Yards or Points. Since week 8 we are 19th in EPA defense and 30th when excluding turnovers. So if we fail to generate a turnover (as has been the case in most our playoff losses) we should expect about the league worse result. Anytime you can adjust for trials it makes it more accurate. Which is why yard per play is more valuable than yards as a future predicator. EPA takes that concept further. I also agree on using per drive data if possible. It's just logical to do so. In no situations is one thing perfect but you use the best indicators the most intelligent ways you can. In that, I have never used Yards or Points.

I think most of us are guys that would like to go somewhere warm where we are featured more

And yet I think only two of those guys have seen a pro bowl. The fact is we have a lot of above average players. Very few great ones.

He is becoming the Ertz of defense

Because I’m showing you that teams consistently overcome the random it’s a straw man argument? By all means, enlighten me.

They trailed 20-10 in one of the games vs the 49ers. Went to OT in the other. Went to OT in one of the Bengals games. Led by 3 in the 4th quarter of the other. Pretty sure Mahomes had plenty of incentive to “dial” it in. It just wasn’t as easy as it is vs us to do so.

I was trying to follow your method of justifying our postseason defense and I finally had to turn to mind altering substances. So you don’t acknowledge that the Chiefs have been better against the Bills than other teams they have played multiple times in the playoffs (and the Bengals for that matter). But if you did acknowledge that, you would make it conditional that Mahomes plays extra good against us because the games are close ( wasn’t the Super Bowl close?) or that we are emotionally sad or we are injured. I think all the bases have been covered.

Ray Charles showed these to me and said it seems to be fairly certain Mahomes plays the best vs Buffalo.

Those are the defensive stats in the playoffs for teams that have faced Mahomes more than once. Your argument is the defense didn’t play any worse than other teams and if they did, it wouldn’t have mattered. So you can see the performance right there of the Bengals and 49ers vs Mahomes compared to us. The last two playoff games vs the Chiefs we missed a game tying FG and lost in OT. So it seems like a pretty big stretch to say if we forced an INT or multiple INT’s or reduced a completion % by 8 points, that it just wouldn’t matter.

If Allen would have gotten the performance Burrow, Jimmy G, or Purdy had would we have won? Two out of three? It looks like in comparing the three that its a pretty significant difference in performance vs Mahomes?

The Chiefs have been to 6 straight AFC championships. Before that, the Patriots went to 8 straight. Being enlightened on this subject has nothing to do with recognizing the randomness. It has to do with recognizing how it’s not random. When your high end talent is lower, and your coaching is worse, you don’t advance and you don’t advance in a consistent way. While others do advance and they do so in a consistent way as well.

Being Ohio States father, they would at least keep it in the family

How many elite talents does that include?

I’m getting closer to this view. I imagine when I review Pro Bowl and All Pro players Buffalo will be among the lowest in football in Allen’s time. We had those studies that show the Bills play more draft picks than just about anybody? So what? That could just as easily mean we are more committed to our draft picks than other teams. Which is likely true. The truth is, it’s very hard to tell how good we are at HC and GM with a player like Allen. He covers up so many issues. I mean, most people here think Beane is elite. Which at times feels accurate, but at the end of the day this team has less talent than a lot of teams built by Whaley or Donahue. I applaud Beanes exhaustive approach to adding depth. But we just don’t have the number of difference makers you would expect on a Super Bowl contender. All this isn’t to say we should target Beane as inferior. More, we shouldn’t just assume he is superior because we win. It is nearly impossible to picture Josh Allen not competitive for the playoffs. He would do so on the Giants this year. That’s just what he brings.

He was most successful at FSU as a big slot. It makes sense if he wasn’t the best at separating

Has the loser of the Michigan / Ohio State game ever won a national title?