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About KzooMike

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    Returning to glory!

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    Stuck in Toledo, OH

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  1. I don’t think he’s worth a 1st but he would be an improvement on 50% of the teams. Wasn’t far from a Super Bowl a few years ago, even if It was more of a defensive team.
  2. This is great news, I know Milano will spend most of the offseason watching tape on Kelce. ☹️
  3. Pisses me off because I don't qualify, by much....I imagine 90% of the people who don't like it won't get it.
  4. Hmm, thank you guys.....This does have some intrigue. I mean, the Texans were pitiful last year and in theory Watts could have just been doubled almost every snap. He recovered with such force after the first injury...
  5. Can somebody sell me on Watt? He averaged .88 sacks per game start prior to 2019 and .38 after. His production in rushing the passer is less than 1/2 the level it used to be on a per start basis. Is the thought he can be rejuvenated by a change in scenery, one more year and he will be even more healthy, playing in a 4-3 will help his production in pass rush, solid run D, play inside sometimes? Sort of like a better version of Shaq Lawson? Are we getting so excited at his name or what we expect him to bring? I'm certainly interested in this storyline. Just don't know what to make o
  6. Tee Higgins and Gabe Davis had the same AV in 2020 (6). Higgins had 67, 908, and 6 TD’s with career backups throwing him the ball after Burrow got hurt. Davis had the 2nd best QB in football throwing him the ball according to AV, and went 35, 599, and 7 TD’s. Devin Singletary is an 8 along with Nick Chubb and his 1000+ yards. I can do this all day and with way more extreme examples than I used. The point is over a career this stuff balances out. Over this small a sample it just doesn’t.
  7. Over the course of a career I agree with that statement. In this small a sample it’s really more about did they play for a good team or not. I’m hitting the sack MJS, like I said. I applaud the work. I may not fully agree with how strongly you feel about it’s conclusions but I appreciate how you went about it. Look forward to future posts.
  8. I agree AV is an excellent tool once the dust settles. But until then I can’t justify a rookie getting a larger pool of win shares to work with because his QB is Aaron Rogers. I can’t justify that the best drafting teams just so happen to all be teams that made the playoffs multiple times the last 3 years according to this list. We had the smallest representation of home grown players of any team in the AFC championship on our roster. The eye test tells me we have only drafted 3-4 players, we really want to keep. I love this type of analysis and it’s probably as close to a sabermetric
  9. Lmao....read the link I posted. All of it. By default, any player on a higher performing unit who starts games gets more AV assigned. So by default any team that performs better has a higher AV assigned to players in that unit. Look at the correlation on his list with win% and do your own research.
  10. Like I said, I applaud your efforts to solve what can’t be solved. But instead of using articles or partial sections I encourage you to discuss how AV is calculated in its entirety if you wish to defend against what I’m saying. Not just use partial sections. I’ve read that entire document and all the sub documents on how AV came to be a long time ago. Look at the Correlation between win % and your list, it’s very strong, now is that because they drafted well or is based on how AV is calculated? It assigns greater value to higher performing units. High performing units can be a res
  11. I really applaud your efforts to evaluate this, that said AV in a sample size this small, used for this purpose, is subject to a lot of problems. It was created to be a one size fits all stat for value of a player across any time in league history and at any position. If you just read on how AV is calculated for football you would understand immediately it can’t be used nor was it intended to be used for this purpose. As a simple example, just the success of a player like Brees, never drafted by the Saints, would automatically increase the AV of any drafted player that stepped on the
  12. Madden is such a dumpster fire I haven't purchased it for the last 2 years. Last years Madden bowl winner used a Punter at QB and ran on 100% of his plays. Great job with those exclusive rights EA!
  13. That's where I'm at. We had solid pass pro all year and against much better teams. To me it extends past just the front four. Allen is more hesitant and it creates a delay in his release. That at least appears what it looks like to me.
  14. I thought some of that played a role myself. He did have two of his worst games this year against this team though. Again, he also struggles against NE. Worst game of the year in the first one. Despite the most people agreeing I do think it's related to late movement on defense which is what KC is known for, what I saw, NE is known for as well.
  15. Started from the first play. He threw it directly at KC defender in 2 of 3 of our first drives. Both should have been picked, neither was. This was well prior to us needing to chase. He actually played better when we had to chase.
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