CincyBillsFan

Not in the least bit surprised by the answer Denver fans gave. Under the circumstances I would have given the same answer. Down here in Cincinnati I interact with a lot of Bengal fans and a fair amount of Brown's fans. And their reaction to Allen is very similar: "man he's a super runner but can he pass?". Of course those that say this never watched him play and based their comments entirely on stat sheets and highlights! But every so often I run across a Bengals or Browns fan who has seen him play or watched one of those highlight videos and they have a very different view of Allen. They usually say things along the line of: "man he's an athletic freak with a cannon for an arm. He looks raw but with work he could be something special." In my experience the more another teams fans know about Allen the closer their opinion mirrors those of a cautiously optimistic Bills fan.

Allen has a natural charisma about him. If he succeeds on the football field and becomes an outstanding QB he'll have plenty of national endorsement deals. Green Bay isn't exactly a big media market but their last two QB's seemed to get on national TV selling stuff quite a bit!

In defense of Badolbilz I think he's referring to how statistics can be manipulated intentionally or unintentionally to give us almost any answer we want. From what I can see much of the analytics used in football does not properly account for the extreme variability, subjective nature of the observations and small sample sizes involved in the game. This often makes the results of the statistical analyses irrelevant or flat out wrong. But as you point out analytics can be useful after a QB has accumulated a long enough track record. Towards the end of their career a QB's stats are a great way to capture his performance relative to his peers. As you note, HOF's don't have crappy stats. My issue is the use of analytics to assess very young NFL QB's. I just don't think the numbers gathered during a QB's first 2 to 3 seasons are very useful in predicting the steady-state performance of a QB over their career.

Exactly right oldmanfan. The extreme variability and relatively small sample size in the game of football does not lend itself to the use of analytics to assess performance. And this is particularly true for a QB. A few simple stats like games won, playoff games won, TD passes thrown, INT's thrown, yards per pass and completion percentage can all help describe a QB's performance. But even here they're not of much use until a QB has completed several seasons. Think about how poorly analytics does in predicting a rookie QB's progression from year 1 to year 2. If statistical analyses was an appropriate tool for evaluating QB's we should be able to predict, after a single season, a QB's next season outcomes. Of course even a casual glance at the stats will tell you that they can't predict year 2 & 3 performance based on year 1 numbers. This is why the critical stats for rookie QB's likely involve subjective things like "leadership", "grit" and whether they improved over the course of their rookie year. I know it's frustrating to the numbers jocks but the "eye test" by folks with a lot of experience assessing NFL QB's is probably the best way to evaluate young QB's and determine their potential.

This is great news. We're running under the radar baby!

While 4000 yards is possible the real thing I want to see from Allen are wins and a playoff berth. A division title would be even nicer. If 4000 yards gets me those things I'm great if they don't I'm not so happy. And whether Allen gets to 4000 yards passing will depend a lot on how the Bills game plan. If their defense is as good as we think it will be and dominates the schedule then what I want from Allen would be directing an efficient offense that wins TOP & field position most games; doesn't turn the ball over much and when needed can put together game winning 4th quarter drives. That would IMO translate to about 3400 yards passing & 600 yards rushing with Allen producing three passing/rushing TD for every INT/fumble he had.

Bringing Reid's kid into the discussion, no matter how briefly, was a scum bag move by this guy. As others have pointed out addiction is a cruel condition and whether Reid was a great or bad parent can NOT be determined by his kids troubles.

Don't take this personally, but you do NOT deal in hard data and facts you're a world class cherry picker. I love how you use "until week 17" to remove Allen's best statistical performance from the discussion. Gee the guy only started and completed 10 games and you're throwing out 10% of his play because it doesn't fit your narrative. This is the kind of stuff that gives statistics a bad name. Then you tout the "fact" that Allen led the league in "uncatcable passes"! Gee for a guy who claims to have watched all sorts of video on Allen you didn't notice all those balls he threw away into the stands? Do you think that maybe because the O-line struggled Daboll told Allen to throw the damn ball away rather then take a sack? Then you compare this "stat" to the # of uncatchable passes thrown by Rosen as if that's a bad thing! Well Rosen is a smart QB and if he had Allen's escapibility I bet he would have thrown a lot more "uncatchable" passes into the cheap seats rather then take a sack or throw a pick. BTW your response doesn't seem to be addressing my point that Allen & Jackson did not play under "similar circumstances" unless you meant things like how they did on 3rd down or in the red zone. But even if that was your meaning it's still a case of comparing apples & oranges as Jackson & Allen were surrounded by very different supporting casts. And for someone who only deals in FACTS you sure let your sarcasm get the best of you. Most of us readily admit that we don't know whether our O-line will be "above average" this year. What we are CONFIDENT of is that it will be much better then last year. This means we expect the O-line to be at least average which would be a big improvement over last season. Do your "facts" and "hard data" tell you otherwise? As for claiming we have "stud WR's" again who is saying that? What we did is UPGRADE the receiving group by bringing in SOLID, veteran receivers who represent a clear improvement over last years receivers. But none of us would mistake Beasley, Brown & Croft as "studs". But compared to last year having very good veteran receivers is a big step up. Or to keep things simple if your kid is getting an F in math and suddenly starts getting C's were going to be happy & justifiably claim he's much improved. At the same time this doesn't mean we think he's going to be a world class rocket scientist. When talking about the Bill's O-line & receivers it's all RELATIVE.

I agree this must be the Onion or maybe it's from Babylon Bee! Of those fan bases I would rank the Steelers ahead of ours but not any of the rest.

I forgot to address this sentence which IMO is not correct. While Darnold & Allen could be said to have played last year under "similar situations" the same CAN NOT be said about Jackson. First, he didn't start until half way through the season giving him time to learn on the bench; 2nd Jackson played for a playoff caliber team with excellent TE's & O-line and a very effective running game. IMO, If you put either Dranold or Allen on Baltimore last season they easily match what Jackson did and neither of them would have been shut down in the way Jackson & the Ravens offense was by SD in the playoffs.

I'm not hearing this at all on 2BD. Seriously who is posting that Allen is "refined"? His "supporters" on 2BD constantly point out that Allen needs to improve in his passing game. We think the guy is a raw talent with a huge upside. We tend to be optimistic becasue he showed flashes of greatness and the things he didn't do well can be LEARNED and CORRECTED. This is the opposite of considering Allen to be a refined passer. And why shouldn't we be excited about Beasley? He is by most accounts a top 3 NFL slot receiver. His signing immediately upgraded our receiving core. Ditto for the signing of Brown who gives us an EXPERIENCED deep threat to compliment a developing young deep threat in Foster.

I would not be as bullish on Allen if he was drafted by the Jets or Finns because like others, I would be judging the guy entirely by his stats. And since I'm NOT a Jet's or Finns fan I would not have watched EVERY one of their games and concluded that the stats do not tell the whole story about Allen. Nor would I have been as aware of the real improvement seen in Allen's game after he returned from injury. I consider improvement in a rookie QB's play to be a much more important metric then most of the statistics being tossed around. It's because I did watch every one of Allen's snaps from scrimmage and I watched them with a high degree of interest as his success or failure is critical to the Bill's future, that I can be bullish on him. But I do have friends who are Jets fans and if they had sat me down and got me to watch Allen's highlights I would have been impressed. And if Allen played on the Dolphins and had games against the Bills like he did against the Finns I would be very concerned that Miami had gotten themselves a hell of a QB. And for the record, I hadn't seen much of Darnold until the Bills/Jets game and I came away impressed and believe he has a similar potential as Allen to be a very good QB. One final point is that I had watched several of Allen's games when he was in college. I used to love watching those Mountain West games on late ESPN and I came away impressed with Allen. It was obvious he needed a lot of work but he made throws I had never seen a QB make at any level of football. I even thought wouldn't it be cool if the Bills could grab him in the 4th round. So I do have a bias in favor of the guy. Of course my bigger bias is in favor of the Buffalo Bills who will be in deep trouble if Allen turns out to be a bust. Oh and the fact we ended paying a much higher price for Allen then a 4th round pick is irrelevant IF he becomes a franchise level QB.

Are you seriously trying to compare the assessment & treatment of a QB to that of a middle LB? Apples & oranges. * First off I think Edmunds is going to be a great LB. I liked that the Bills took a chance in picking Allen & Edmunds in the 1st round last year. To kick start this franchise out of it's long term mediocrity they needed to take chances and they did. * Obviously Edmunds was a lower risk pick then Allen but not for the reason you think. By definition 1st round selections of QB's are riskier then 1st round selections of LB's. It goes with the position. NFL QB is a fiendishly tough thing to be good at. * Yes Edmunds was the youngest player in the NFL which in and of itself was somewhat risky. And yes he did play very well AT TIMES. At other times he looked clueless out there and played horribly. People who know football didn't jump all over him for that because he was ONLY A rookie. Like Allen, Edmunds flashed signs of greatness and left us with a good deal of optimism about his play next year. * I don't know where Edmunds ranked overall as a LB last year. Unlike QB's who can be analyzed to death and "ranked" according to a myriad of stats, LB's simply aren't evaluated in the same way. All I can say is that to me watching both of them play, there were similarities in that they each looked all world at times and at other times they both looked awful. That's what being a rookie is all about. One final note. It's hard for amateurs like you or me (yes we are amateurs here) to get down in the weeds and really judge these guys. Unfortunately for QB's there are all these numbers that anybody can look at and pretend they know what they're talking about. What numbers or video review can we use to evaluate a LB in the same way we think we can evaluate a QB?

Who is saying everything is fixed? The off season moves have improved the offense on paper. That's all we know right now. The O-line now appears to be better ditto the WR's. Again we'll know if it's true in September. But why would any football fan not be optimistic that the Bills improved their offense in the off season? The alternative is to believe they did not improve this unit or that it got worse. As for Allen, it's a reasonable expectation that he will be improved from last year because: * he will be taking almost all of the 1st team snaps in camp and during the preseason. This alone will give him a better understanding of the offensive scheme and guys who will be playing. it is also likely that we have a stability in the receiving group that we didn't have last season. * Dabold has now settled in and has had an entire off season to fine tune the offense to best fit Allen's strengths and hide his weaknesses. * by all reports Allen has continued to work hard on his throwing mechanics, footwork & film study. It's reasonable to assume the game will have further slowed down for him. This optimism is warranted from the clear improvements he made in all these things pre & post injury. * and we will NOT be looking for a new coach & GM if Allen doesn't step up but the rest of the team gets better. We'll be looking for a new QB like a lot of NFL teams. One final point. It's easy to be pessimistic about ANY rookie QB developing into a good NFL QB. The odds are stacked against it happening. So if your goal is to be "right" and claim you told us that Allen sucks but we didn't listen, then the odds are with you. All other things being equal the chances that you're right and we're wrong are a lot greater then vice versa. On this topic you have to adopt a baseball mindset and realize that most NFL QB's fail or never amount to much. It's like how excellence is measured in baseball with a 300 hitting average being HOF worthy but in school only getting 30% of the answers rights get's you a big fat F. Being optimistic in these situations is a choice. But IMO it sure beats being pessimistic. And it's more fun identifying things to give us reason to be excited & optimistic about then seeing everything through a prism that says Allen will never be a good NFL QB.

This is a straw man argument. Those of us who are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic that Allen might just be our franchise QB readily admit that he must improve a whole lot or we're going to be looking for another QB in 2021 or 2022. We fully acknowledge he must get better in a number of areas of his game. That is a long way from making excuses for the guy. And as for those "excuses" you have to have blinders on not to see that the O-line, running game and receivers left a lot to be desired last season.

Ronin did you actually watch the video you linked to? By my count Allen hit every one of this short passes - EVERY SINGLE ONE! I also so Allen throw away 4 or 5 passes while under pressure. I saw #10 & Jones drop at least one catchable ball each. Sure #10 would have made a nice catch to grab that deep pass but it's a catch I've routinely seen MADE IN HIGH SCHOOL football. I also was reminded of that stupid 4th down play in the 3rd quarter when a FG was the play to make. Sorry but I don't agree at all with your take on this video of that game.

Wow a thread about Beasley loving Buffalo sure turned negative real quick. Some thoughts: * It's obvious Beasley loves the Bills organization and thinks it's a lot better then Dallas was - that's pretty much all he's talked about. * I have to believe Beasley asked around concerning Allen especially given that his stated #1 reason for leaving the Cowboys was that he wanted to get targeted more and catch more passes. If he thought Allen was a total bust that couldn't complete a short pass I'm not sure the money alone would have been enough to lure him here. At MINIMUM Beasley must have some confidence that Allen can get him the ball. * I'm going to ignore the "Allen is inaccurate" statements that are made as if they are FACT. That argument has been made so much on 2BD that the dead horses bones have been ground into dust. * I will point out that structurally the Bills are designed for a slot receiver with Beasley's skills to shine. You have SPEED which MUST be respected with Brown & Foster at the wide outs and a QB in Allen who can get them the ball deep. Then you have a QB whose running ability is game changing. This means that LB's and safeties will be a bit preoccupied every time Allen drops back to pass. Beasley is savvy enough to exploit the inevitable defensive indecision here. * I believe that not only will Beasley surpass his single season catch numbers at Dallas he will have a surprisingly high average gain per pass catch. Why? because his YAC will be enormous as he runs free between the deep coverage worried about Foster/Brown and the underneath coverage worried about Allen taking off. * Folks keep claiming they watched & reviewed the tape and saw all these bad short throws by Allen. Well I don't believe you. Why? Because in the game against the Jets you guys were the same ones who tried to convince us that the short Allen throw to Clay, which would have resulted in a huge gain if completed, was at his feet. When we went back & forth arguing from memory someone posted the actual replay and it was OBVIOUS the ball hit Clay between his stomach & chest yet you guys kept insisting it was a bad throw! Sure you stopped saying it hit Clay's feet and moved up the anatomy first to his ankles then to his knees but it was clear where Allen hit the guy with his throw. Finally I think you guys just claimed he threw it to hard! * In fact as I think back to some of the biggest pass plays Allen made they were off accurate SHORT passes in which the receiver got free as a result of an Allen scramble. The 3 that come to mind off the top of my head are the pass to Ivory against Minnesota; the pass to McCoy against Houston and the pass to Ivory against Miami in the last game.

I agree there is cause for optimism. Allen MAY be the guy in a way we haven't seen since Kelly. Edmunds showed flashes of being a dominant LB at an age when most guys are still in college. We had a solid draft to bolster a roster that is full of young, up & coming players. I also believe we significantly improved the team with the free agents we signed. Ditto with the coaching which was further improved. Bills management has done a nice job of manipulating the salary cap getting the franchise out of a very deep hole. And as a bonus we'll have cap room next year to push even further up the NFL power ladder. I'm predicting that we make the playoffs with a fair chance to win the division. My sense is that winning 10 or 11 games this season is not out of the question.

That WR from Detroit comes to mind as he was making catches with the DB draped all over him. In fact, the Bill's were one of the few teams I watched last year where I can only remember the receivers making exceptional catches in tight coverage once or twice for the ENTIRE SEASON. Other receivers on other teams seemed to make these catches multiple times per game.

Sorry for the misunderstanding Mango. I wasn't trying to be critical of the post as it was an interesting graph. My remarks were aimed more at the people who are trying to use the data as another way to bash Allen. I was also pointing out that over the last few months there have been all sorts of analytics thrown around involving QB play. I just thought this one was especially subjective and open to interpretation and when added to all the others it seems like the "experts" are way over analyzing the rookie QB's. As Oldmanfan has pointed out the use of these statistical techniques is probably inappropriate given the variability for each NFL pass play and the small sample size for the young QB's. And I'm not talking just about the "aggressiveness" chart but pretty much all of the analytics work that has been presented in a slew of posts over the last couple of months. One way to look at it is say I was running a 6 month clinical trial to look at the effect of a test drug. I'm going to measure clinical outcomes as well as track the drug, it's metabolites and impact on say blood chemistry in the subjects. Now let's say that after only ONE DAY of treatment I made a bunch of measurements and ran the data through the most sophisticated analytics available and didn't see an effect. And then I took this data and went around telling everyone that the Drug doesn't work. I would be guilty of gross abuse of statistical analysis and my conclusion would not be justified. The Drug might work or it might not. And this is exactly what these analytics people are doing using various statistical techniques to asses these young QB's.

Is it me or is EVERYONE going overboard on the stats thing? How many different ways can you slice a loaf of bread? In all these cases we're trying to use convoluted statistics to evaluate a ROOKIE QB, who was considered a project by every expert and who only played in the equivalent of 11 games. And he played on a team with a weak O-line, no running game and a piss poor receiving group. Frankly this is insane. To me it looks like we're trying to analyze his performance & future prospects as if we were analyzing a million subject, 5 year nutrition study. We just don't have enough data to usefully apply the stats that were trying to use on Allen. Or Rosen. Or Jackson. Or Mayfield. Or Darnold. At this point it's all about the eye candy. Which means the best we can do is GUESS at what the future holds for these rookie QB's. The most sensitive we can be is to look at Allen's limited body of work and decide whether to be OPTIMISTIC or PESSIMISTIC. It doesn't get more specific then that at this point. And before someone throws out Allen's HIGH SCHOOL (HS? are you freaking kidding me) & COLLEGE stats as if they mean anything remember that you could fill Rich Stadium with QB's boasting great college stats who failed in the NFL.

As others have noted you have completely missed the meaning of this stat. Allen was pressured on almost HALF his throws - which I believe led the league. That he also led the league in having more time to throw is a clear indication of his elusiveness under pressure. This was apparent to anyone who watched his games. A typical Allen pass began with his almost immediately being put under pressure by the pass rush and having to make a move in order to avoid the sack. IMO next year we'll see that in these situations Allen will be quite dangerous because: * His threat to run and gain 25 yards will mean that his receivers will become uncovered downfield as LB's & Safeties move up to contain Allen's runs. * The greatly revamped WR & TE group will take better advantage of the opportunities that arise after Allen breaks containment. You saw evidence of this after he came back from his injury where some of his biggest completions were off scrambles. * With a year of experience under his belt, Allen himself will be much more effective at exploiting defenses in these situations. And with a revamped O-line he won't be put under pressure almost half the time. This will give the kid room to breath and more fully exploit the situations where the pass protection does break down. . * The Bills offensive brain trust has had a year to practice & design for this sort of thing. Last year the team used 4 different QB's (including a raw rookie) and replaced the ENTIRE starting receiver group at mid-season. Bottom line is that there was precious little time to work on their strengths as they were treading water on offense. Now the offense has had a whole off season to work on plays that take advantage of Allen's athleticism.

I didn't go back and re-watch every Allen play but wouldn't it be fair to say that this was a PRE-INJURY Allen antic? I don't recall to many instances where he panicked and turned his back to the rush AFTER he came back from the injury. In fact wasn't it the Jacksonville game, his first one back, where he stepped into the rush and as three guys were wrapping him up delivered a deep strike for a 75 yard TD pass? And it seemed like Allen learned that rather then running around like a chicken after the pass protection broke down he should just look for a running lane and take off. I would also argue that most of the "laughable film" came from the Green Bay game. This was truly Allen's worst game as a rookie. But let's not forget that it came right after one of his best games. This means Allen was INCONSISTENT, especially before his injury. You should see my shocked face at the idea that a rookie QB might not be consistent in his play.

It is odd to see the negativism rising up in response to an excellent post by KZoomike. Most Allen supporters are fully aware of the kids shortcomings and what he needs to work on. We are also aware that the chances he ends up a bust are better then the odds he ends up our franchise QB. But when looking at an NFL QB you have to apply Baseball logic. That is a lifetime batting average of 300 likely gets you in the HOF even though you're only getting a hit 30% of the time. A pessimist would say that sucks! The same applies to the NFL where the odds of drafting a great QB are low. So when a kid shows signs of possibly being THAT GUY, I choose optimism. The idea that being optimistic about Allen's future with the Bills is the same as viewing Allen through rose colored glasses is just plain wrong. Down here in Cincinnati When friends ask me about the Bills Super Bowl losses I always tell them that I would rather go four times in a row and lose every one of them then never to have gone. For four magical years we had something special and the joy I got from reaching four straight Super Bowls easily overwhelmed the bitterness of the four straight losses. That's how I'll view Allen. He's shown me enough to justify my optimism and even if he never lives up to expectations I'll have enjoyed the time of optimism. The alternative is to walk around with a permanent rain cloud over your head.

Seriously, you're saying Allen was twice as bad as Darnold in this game? Twice as BAD! As others have noted that game was lost by the special teams and a defense that couldn't hold a 4th quarter lead against a rookie QB at home. And for the record, this game made me think that Darnold is going to be a damn good QB.