CincyBillsFan

For me Allen's response to this bad play provided me with more reason to be optimistic then any one of his spectacular plays. We knew the kid had freakish arm talent and we quickly learned (vikings game) that he had freakish athletic talent. These are two things you can't teach and our guy had them which is a good thing. But mental toughness is also hard to learn and Allen throwing a pick six at the end of the half to allow Miami to tie up a game they were trailing 14 - 0 had all the earmarks of a disaster in the making. How many of you thought that coming out of the locker room we would go 3 & out or even worse Allen would throw another pick and the Dolphins would win the game? I know I was worried that the game was on that trajectory. Instead Allen comes out of the locker room takes the team on a 75 yard TD drive in which he makes 2 great throws (one for a TD) and had a huge run. These are the "little" that you want to see in your QB. And this is one of the reasons I'm optimistic for next season.

How about this: "Allen has potential but he's still young and has a lot to learn". or "It's not fair to compare Allen to Mahomes at this point in their careers. They're in very different situations." or "We'll have to wait & see how the season plays out. You don't really know until guys put on the pads and there's some real contact but I like what I see so far." or "Allen is coming along nicely but it wouldn't be fair to compare him to Mahomes at this point. They're different guys with unique strengths." There are a lot of ways Morse could have been guarded or even tepid in his opinion on Allen without being insulting. That he wasn't and seemed eager to compare him to what he saw in Mahomes is encouraging - nothing more or less.

I think this would be tempting fate. My guess is that sometime during the two weeks between the conference championship games and a Vikings/Bills Super Bowl an asteroid would slam into the Earth ending civilization. All that would be left would be a few drunk Bills/Vikings fans arguing over who would have won.

Great post. As another poster noted we can realistically expect that if Allen is the guy he'll have 2 good games for every 1 bad game this year. But that means he's going to have a couple of stinkers. That's where the defense comes in. My goodness there isn't enough Lithium in the world to handle Bills fans if they get depressed by their 2nd year QB making a couple of bad throws in JUNE!

As others have noted it's to be expected that the Bills defense, which will be a top 5 defense this year and is returning most of it's starters would be WAY ahead of a retooled offense with a 2nd year QB IN FREAKING JUNE. And as others have said Allen and the rest of the offense will get better by practicing against an elite defense. I'm picking the Bills to win 10 or 11 games this year and make the playoffs. They'll do that on the back of their defense and with some big plays out of Allen & the offense. But this will be a defensive minded team which means they'll try to run the ball on offense, limit TO's, gain field position and play outstanding special teams. They're going to win a lot of games 20 - 13. This worry about whether Allen missed a swing pass or whether he's struggling against a near elite secondary with mostly back-up receivers IN JUNE is bizarre to me.

Hell if you want to worry go right ahead, it's your heart attack. You can worry about all sorts of things such as an asteroid smashing into the earth and wiping us all out - it's a free country!

I'm answering this question taking into account the moves the Bills made in the off season and since they already have a very good defense I'll focus on the offense. They shored up their O-line and improved themselves at WR & TE. Sure I could pick a future HOFer at these positions and make the Bills even better but like I said I think they're much improved here. So where do I see a problem still? RB. They need a game breaking RB that fits the modern bill of being deadly both running and catching the football. So I'm going to take Christian McCaffrey. He's young, is just now coming into his own and I suspect he'll be in the final 3 for offensive MVP this year. And if he can convince Cam Newton of the value of check down passes he can convince Josh Allen. The guy has demonstrated that he can run between the tackles and carry the load taking over 90% of the Panthers offensive snaps last year. IMO he would provide the overall high quality RB production we haven't seen since Thurman Thomas. And he would do it for at least 5 more years.

Agreed but they're impact is more pronounced and variable in football. Take officiating for example, while umpires have a big impact on each baseball "play" the number of moving pieces from the pitch to the end of the play that umps impact is less then what an NFL referee crew impacts on each NFL play. Or take weather, sure a strong wind can effect a baseball game but such an effect pales in comparison to how rain or snow impact every part of a football game. Even worse, over the course of the LONG baseball season variables like weather can be expected to largely even out. But the limited number of football games offers no such assurances. I suspect that if you add it all up the total movable pieces for each NFL play they are an order of magnitude greater then what happens on each pitch in baseball. Making matters worse, is the fact that the relatively few games played in a football season often don't enable events to even out.

Football is even more complicated then this! Not only does it have the interaction of the 10 other players but you have to add in the following for EACH play: * The impact of the coaches that are on both the sideline & up in the box. This ranges from the play call that is sent in to the signals being sent to other players on the field (O-line & WR's for example) from the sideline. All this occurs in the 20 seconds or so before EACH play. * The impact of the refs. Football is probably the most overly officious team sport. Each official on EVERY play can impact a QB's final stats. Does a holding call cancel out a TD throw? Does an interference call cancel out an INT? Does a rinky dinky illegal content call on one side of the field cancel out a pick six on the other side? * The opposition defensive players & coaches. Their reactions to every offensive snap have a lot to do with a QB's final stats. * The weather. Hockey is played indoors and baseball isn't played in the rain or snow. But football is played in almost every type of weather. And which part of an offense is impacted by the weather the most? The passing game.

As K9 points out Football has to many moving parts (variables) to lend itself to effective analytics use. Among team sports baseball is much more suitable. Not only is it made up of very well defined individual actions the sheer number of games played within one season allow a statistically meaningful collection of observations to be made. To match a single baseball season an NFL player would have to complete for 10 seasons. By that time player aging will have introduced a powerful and uncontrollable variable to deal with. I don't know enough about hockey to comment intelligently on whether analytics has been a useful tool there.

Why would folks waste their time? Analytics can not proactively predict a young QB's future prospects any better then a beer swilling fan gobbling down chicken wings at the local bar & grill.

As others have noted the degree to which Allen polarizes these so called QB "experts" is weird. I can't recall so much venom spewed at a player like that which some of these analytics guys hurl. My take is they realize that if Allen succeeds it indicates that their precious equations are crap. And that threatens their paycheck. As someone who spent a LONG career working in R&D and made use of all sorts of mathematical modeling & analytics techniques the attempt by these guys to model QB performance using analytics is laughable. There are simply to many variables to make the calculations worth much. When I see a QBASE score of 37.3% I can't help but be amazed at the arrogance of these guys who believe their calculation is accurate to a TENTH of a DECIMAL PLACE! Really! How about "37.3" +/- 50%. There I fixed it for you Shantz. Allen may not get better then he is. He may flounder going forward and turn out to be a bust at QB. He may never be anything other then an average QB in the NFL. Or he may be the next John Elway. At this point in his career who knows. I don't need silly equations to tell me that. Watching the NFL closely will tell you this. But anyone who has watched a fair amount of the NFL would say that there is reason for optimism that Allen may in fact be a very good NFL QB. Using my advanced eyes analytics technique (AEAT) I calculate that there is a 34.5892% chance of Allen being an above average to excellent QB.

Great article with some new takes on what we saw unfold last season pre & post the Allen injury. Thanks for posting! As others have noted the Bills coaching & front office should get a lot of credit for changing things up on the fly. The issues the article lays out for Allen in the first half of the season were a direct result of the Bills decision NOT to name him the starter in the summer. This meant they had to build an offense that suited either McCarron or Perterman. In hindsight this was a huge screw-up. Past Bills regimes would have compounded this mistake by NOT making any changes and allowing Allen to flounder and maybe even wash out of the league in a couple of years. That the Bills made such significant changes in BOTH offensive personal AND scheme DURING THE SEASON was impressive and unexpected. I also liked how Cover 1 noted that Allen was very effective throwing the ball on deep routes. I also recall a couple of big time PI calls where DB's had to tackle the WR before the ball got there to avoid giving up a TD. This is another big advantage of throwing the ball deep. Long ball PI is great because it can get you down the field fast with a 40 yard penalty. With an improved O-line, new & improved WR's to compliment our more experienced returning WR's and a better running game, the Bills offense presents match-up nightmares for NFL defenses. Allen won't run the ball as much as last season but when he does look for 15 yard gains on 3rd & 12. You know the kind that break the back of most defenses. I see him rushing for about 40 yards per game using his legs to convert 3rd & longs & generate red zone TD's.

I think Allen was also referring to the following things: * He didn't get a lot of first team snaps during training camp and the preseason. How many guys did he throw the ball to who weren't even on the team in week 1? Timing issues with his receivers largely happened as a result of his lack of first team reps during the preseason. * The Bills also changed up their receiving corp drastically over the course of the season. They let Benjamin & Holmes go and signed McKenzie. This further hindered the ability of Allen to develop rapport with his receivers. By simply giving Allen the lions share of 1st team reps in training camp and during the pre-season games, he will have a much better opportunity to work out any timing issues with his receivers. This alone almost guarantees better passing production. Throw in the fact that the receiving group has been significantly upgraded talent wise and we have reason to be optimistic.

I think there's a good chance Beasley will have a big impact on the Bills passing game. First off, he's a significant upgrade to McKenzie. And don't forget that Allen was able to hit McKenzie on the type of short throws that make slot receivers so dangerous. Second, the Bills have added speed & another deep threat at WR. With Brown & Foster split wide teams will have to respect the deeper patterns. This is a slot receivers dream. Combine this with Allen being able to hit almost any point on a football field means that there won't be a lot of nickle & free safety help to cover Beasley. This will create exploitable match-up issues with LB's & strong safeties trying to cover this guy. Third, short passes to slot receivers require timing. The best way to disrupt these passes is with quick, up the middle pressure. With last years O-line DT's were pushing the center & guards into Allen's face at the snap. The upgrade of the O-line means that Allen will have that extra second without anyone in his face to make those throws.

The other issue with the whole notion of what is and isn't a "dropped" pass, is the matter of misplayed balls. The best example I can recall is the "lost the ball in the sun" play against New England. That was a perfectly thrown deep ball that should have been an 80 yard TD pass. Not only would that have been a nice stat line for Allen, more importantly it would have completely changed the course of that game. On the positive front, I think Foster is a diamond in the rough who will be a fine NFL player. I also think the addition of Brown & Beasley will have a huge & positive impact on the Bills receiving production.

Another great point addressing the lack of great catches by the Bills receivers last season. I assume you're talking about the perfectly placed ball by Allen that should have been caught at the Dolphins 5 yards line. The play was ruled a catch but overturned on review. Yet it should have been caught and likely would have led to a Bills win. It really bugs me when folks claim that it was Allen's bad pass and not Clay's drop that mattered most on the play against Miami. I say BS! You can't evaluate that play without taking into consideration the amazing way in which Allen avoided being sacked TWICE on that play. That he did not throw a perfect pass under those circumstances is not in the least bit surprising. That an NFL TE making $9,000,000 per year was late adjusting to the ball AND couldn't make a knee level catch that NFL receivers make all the time was the real issue here. Sure, Allen took responsibility and was clearly pissed that he hadn't thrown a better pass. But that's why we're excited about next year - this kid gets what leadership looks & acts like. But IMO that play was on Clay, NOT Allen.

This is exactly right. The best catches I can recall were the Demarco catch on the wheel route against the Chargers and Fosters catch along the sideline against Miami. And neither of those were ever going to make the ESPN highlight reel. Yet almost every time I watched a game on TV I saw WR/TE/RB's make circus catches. IMO the LACK of great catches by the receivers was a bigger problem then the drops. And when you combine the two, it explains why Allen completed less then 60% of his passes.

Good WR's were not exactly abundant in this draft. The Bills added two starting caliber WR's in FA and have a 3rd starter between Foster & Jones. The two UDFA WR's the Bills just signed are intriguing. I'm betting one of these guys not only makes the team but see's playing time at wide out. Throw in the CFL guy who may be a lot better then we think and the Bills are okay at WR. Frankly OL & TE were much higher priority's then WR and they seem to have fixed both those areas.

And evidently didn't miss a game!

I love the pick. As others have noted he is great value at #9 and fits a need. I also think he is an example of the new type of DT that will percolate through the NFL over the next few years. A little undersized but very explosive off the ball, great hand strength and a knack for creating havoc by deeply penetrating the O-line. I think we're moving away from the days of the behemoth DT's that only needed to tie up space so LB's could make plays. As an added benefit the guy looks tailor made for Buffalo. I love the way he waded out into the Bills crowd to high five & hug folks. Seems like the Bill's brain-trust does seriously look at personality types in making their selections.

My beer consumption goes up significantly when I'm watching the Bills. At first it's the excitement of the upcoming game & expectation of a win that triggers over consumption. Then it's angry frustration as the game proceeds that triggers over consumption. Then with a disappointing end I try to drown my sorrow triggering over consumption. I've just never tried it after eating a Thanksgiving feast.

Looking at the schedule I'm seeing 10 or even 11 wins. The way you get prime-time games is to make the playoffs on a regular basis. Until we do that there's no point in getting upset or being surprised by our lack of Monday & Sunday night games. I'm not a big fan of the Turkey Day game at Dallas. It's not that the Cowboys worry me, they don't play all that well on Thanksgiving. Rather it's the late start of the game that gives my stomach the heebie-Jeebies. I'll have to break out the Tums as we'll slam the big feast before the game and then suffer through a nerve wracking game. Why "nerve wracking"? I expect this to be a very important game from a playoff standpoint. Question to this board - is it possible (or advisable) to drink lots of beer AFTER a huge Thanksgiving dinner while watching the Bills? Also is any one going to watch the game WHILE eating dinner. And with the NFL's short halftime breaks would it be possible to finish the feast up during halftime?

Since 1986 there have only been 3 other QB's who in the off season had me excited for the new season to roll around and they were Jim Kelly, Drew Bledsoe & Doug Flutie. That's 33 years and only 3 guys. So yea Allen has got me chomping at the bit for next season to get started. Sure he has a lot to improve on but with that being said in roughly 11 games this kid has produced more spectacular highlights, both running & throwing the football, then any other Bills QB not named Jim or Doug have in over 30 years. A lot can still go wrong and as a Bills fan part of me dreads that Allen will implode and suck. But the chances that we have a special talent at QB hasn't been this good since Kelly first walked out on the field. Bottom line is that I would rather be optimistic now only to have my hopes crushed later then be pessimistic during the off season and then have my hopes crushed.

I saw no issues with his arm after the injury. My guess is that what you perceive was Allen trying to take a bit off some of his throws. During his time off he realized he didn't have to throw missiles every time. For example: * The 75 yard TD pass to Foster against Jacksonville. While he's being engulfed by 3 Jaguar D linemen he gets of a 45 yard throw. * Several throws against Miami including BOTH TD passes and that dart he threw from the end zone to convert a 3rd & long at the sideline. * Several throws against the Jets where he converted 3rd & long situations. On just the 2nd play from scrimmage Allen connects on an 18 yard throw that was an absolute steamer of a throw. * He also threw some darts against Detroit. And there were others. Again I think the Allen you saw after the injury was putting a lot more touch on the ball then just trying to throw it threw a wall. As an aside the reason his % completion didn't go up as a result was that he was also throwing the ball away a lot more post injury to avoid the sack. The reduction in his sack numbers shows that.