DCOrange
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Posts posted by DCOrange
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39 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
Can someone tell me how Pearsall has suddenly shot up draft boards? He hasn't had the production of many of the others, doesn't have elite size and I was seeing him as back of 2nd -3rd round by most sites.
Personally i would stay very far away. Another slot receiver? No thank you.
He has some similar production red flags as guys like Mitchell and Coleman while also having the age red flags of Legette (though Pearsall was at least a solid contributor prior to this season). When I broke down Coleman, I mentioned how one of the things I like about Coleman is I feel like he has a couple calling cards where he should have success right away whereas most of this draft class are more in the mold of all-around players that are pretty good in a bunch of areas; Pearsall is one of those.
- Alignment Versatility: He's lined up, and been successful, all across offensive formations. Probably projects as a flanker/slot hybrid like McConkey, but he had a lot more success against press coverage than McConkey, so there's some X receiver ability in there as well.
- Skillset Versatility: In terms of Matt Harmon's success rates vs. coverage types, Pearsall ranks in the 87th percentile against man coverage and the 69th percentile against zone. That man coverage success rate is slightly behind Rome Odunze for #1 in the class. The zone success rate is 1% behind Odunze for #1 in the class (but McConkey and MHJ are both in between them).
- Hands + Separation: He has arguably the best hands in the class and is one of the best separators in the class.
- Acing the Draft Process: Lastly, he's killed it in the lead up to the draft, and there's always a few guys like that that rise up draft boards as a result. He was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl and was arguably the most surprisingly great Combine performer (though I'd personally go with AD Mitchell there). While his film is littered with examples of him getting in and out of breaks without having to slow down and also examples of him elevating to grab passes that a lot of other receivers could not reach, people questioned his athleticism some, and then he tested as one of the best athletes in the class.
For me personally, he ended up as my #10 WR in the class. I'd take him in the 2nd round but he's not a real consideration at #28 for me.
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6 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:
Matt Harmon's ranking of Franklin outside the top let's me know to never follow his scouting of receivers.
I don’t think he’s scouted Franklin yet. The 10 I listed are the only 10 he’s published so far.
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7 hours ago, DJB said:
You two seem to be the resident Coleman fans. Can you elaborate what you like about him and how he’s going to be successful at the next level? And why he is worthy of pick 28?
I’ve been vocal about my disdain for Coleman and why he is not worthy of being picked in round 1 with all the red flags I see, however I’m always open to ideas and seeing new perspectives on players .
I think I'm high on Coleman relative to most here. Similar to @HappyDays, I'm not sure he's really a 1st round grade to me. Pre-Combine, I had a late 1st round grade on him and Franklin as my #4 and #5 WR in the class. If they had done what they had to do at the Combine, I probably would have felt pretty good about potentially taking them at #28, but either way, they were always more fringe 1st round types. To me, it's the big 3 and Brian Thomas as clear 1st rounders and then nobody after that is clear.
I readily admit Coleman has a lot of red flags; probably more red flags than any other WRs that are being considered in the first two days of the draft. The main things I like/the reasons I'm willing to look past a lot of the red flags:
- Athleticism - Altogether, Coleman is a good, borderline great athlete for the position. The 4.6 forty really hurts, but as has been said ad nauseum, while he's certainly not a burner, he does seem to play faster than the 4.6 time would suggest.
- Age/Breakout Age - Coleman is the 2nd youngest WR in the class and tied for the 5th youngest breakout age in the class. While he's obviously fairly raw, he's at the age where being relatively raw is okay, and he at least has the physical tools you want (minus the mediocre speed) and has been fairly productive despite being relatively raw.
- Motor - He's a high-effort player on the field. Tenacious run blocker to the point that Michigan State would motion him across the formation to be the lead blocker on run plays as if he was a blocking tight end. It sounds like he's a very hard worker behind the scenes/a player that keeps his teammates energized.
- Short-Term Upside - Despite being a stacked WR class, I think a lot of these highly touted WRs are guys where you're not entirely sure if they have something they can immediately hang their hat on to bring immediate value. A lot of well-rounded types that could be really good players, but not a ton of guys that feel like they can do something that's relatively unguardable the second they enter the league. Coleman has that IMO with his ability to box out DBs for back-shoulder throws, make contested catches, and elevate to get to passes that nobody else can.
- Long-Term Upside - As I've kinda laid out already, he has the physical tools, he has youth on his side, and he's been fairly productive despite being pretty raw skill-wise. A lot of areas where he can further develop his skills to take his game to another level and seemingly has the motor you look for to max out that potential.
I love Matt Harmon as a WR analyst and he makes a pretty strong case for the transition to big slot WR. He very well may be right, and if he is, Coleman doesn't make a lot of sense for Buffalo. I tend to think of Coleman similarly to how I thought about Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming. I totally acknowledge all the metrics and stuff that suggest he will be a bust and should not warrant any serious consideration. I just tend to think he has the mental makeup and physical tools to be the outlier. It's admittedly a pretty high-risk play.
I think I'd probably lean towards taking a different position at #28 or trading down rather than reaching on Coleman or Franklin, but those two remain at the top of my list after the big 3 and Thomas as far as WRs go.
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Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far:
- MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick
- Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick
- Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick
- Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder
- Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2
- Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option
- Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th
https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/
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3 minutes ago, Brand J said:
Interesting that he’s played for 2 leagues, yet isn’t seen as an UFA, free to sign with anyone. What’s the difference between his situation and someone like Cam Wake?
Wake entered the NFL draft (or at least signed with an NFL team) before ending up in the CFL, so no need to enter the draft again.
Stiggers never went through the draft process and I believe is one year away from being able to enter the league as a free agent. Not 100% positive on that though.
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On 4/12/2024 at 3:39 PM, Buffalo716 said:
I feel like we are taking there guard now lol
Would be very surprised if he isn’t our starting PG for better or worse.
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It's the QBs to me. After Caleb and Maye, I wouldn't touch any of them in the first round. I could maybe understand McCarthy but I wouldn't want to be the team taking him in the first personally. Daniels, Nix, Penix...I don't see it with them.
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9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I've heard from my source that Baker doesn't interview well and may struggle to learn an NFL playbook.
Perhaps so. I won't pretend I have those sorts of connections; I can only go off the film and metrics. Based on those two things, I would say he's a 2nd rounder. If teams just don't think he'll be able to develop then I get passing on him.
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15 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
Where do you envision that Cowing would play? He is very short and light.
Almost certainly will have to play in the slot.
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Working off of this consensus big board: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024
I would go with Javon Baker and Jacob Cowing at WR. Both are top 10 WRs in this class IMO.
The consensus big board still has Drake Maye as the #2 prospect in the class, but it feels like a lot of the people in the mainstream media are pushing him down their boards and I think that's a major mistake.
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I think I have a strong idea who our PG will be lol. I’m a bit skeptical but hope Leffew is up to the task.
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25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Dane Brugler published The Beast today. If you have one reason to sign up for the Athletic for a month, this is it:
Here are his WR rankings:
Some notes that I haven't seen mentioned much elsewhere:
- MHJ: "As talented as he is, his discipline and dedication to his craft might be the most impressive part of him" - NFL scout. Tendency to coast when he isn't the target of the play, poor effort as a blocker, not really a YAC weapon. Turned down NIL deals at first because he believed they'd be a distraction.
- Nabers: Body catches more than you'd like but has shown the ability to extend and catch the ball with his hands. Was arrested on Bourbon St. for illegally carrying a weapon. Was ruled ineligible his senior year of high school because his family happened to move to the same school district as his former coach and there was a rule against that; still made the All-American team despite not playing lol. Credits his time growing up as a center fielder for his ability to track the deep ball.
- Odunze: His weaknesses section is hilariously short. Needs to expand his route tree and only average change of direction skills, but that's basically it. Suffered a broken rib/punctured lung and didn't miss any time.
- Thomas: Needs to improve his play strength and tends to lose his footing on some of his breaks, but his ability to stutter step and then accelerate is great, uses his basketball background to box people out, and has "minimal delay going from catcher to runner, which is uncommon for a big receiver"
- McConkey: Similar to Legette, he switched from WR to QB his senior season in high school. Experience as a punt returner, gunner, and on kickoff coverages. Adding weight has been a challenge in the past; scouts believe he probably won't be able to put on any additional weight in the NFL. Doesn't have ideal contact balance, but makes up for it with his creativity after the catch.
- AD: Played a few games at QB his senior year of high school but otherwise played WR. Always looking for someone to block. Below average play strength; physical DBs will give him trouble. Small hands and doesn't always play strong to the football. Not a YAC weapon and wasn't a high volume target in college.
- Coleman: Was a star basketball player in high school while also competing in track and playing football. Only considered colleges where he could play both basketball and football. Switched his commitment twice before ultimately landing at Michigan State. Left the Michigan State basketball team at the beginning of his sophomore season to focus exclusively on football. Cousin of CeeDee Lamb. Draws a lot of penalties. Quickly transitions from catcher to runner, quick burst off the LOS and at the top of his route. Physically dominant as a run blocker. Driven to max out his ability and cash in for his family. Not as efficient beating press coverage as you'd expect. While he's improved as a route runner, more polish is required. Can be a bit prone to offensive pass interference. Had some nagging injuries throughout college.
Going to bounce around more from here/be shorter as I just can't do this for everyone lol, but let me know if there's any guys in particular you'd like a short blurb about and I can try to get back to you.
- Pearsall: Punt return and gunner experience, dad was a "tough-as-*****, sticky-handed receiver" just like Ricky.
- Worthy: Committed to Michigan and tried to early-enroll, but academic issues forced him to delay enrollment. He moved to Michigan anyways to get to know his teammates and ended up leaving a month later and reconsidered his options. Joined Steve Sarkisian at Texas due to how he utilized Devonta Smith at Alabama.
- Corley: first from his high school to play division 1 football
- Legette: Played running back as a child, moved to WR for high school, and then moved to QB his senior year; comes from a town of 2,500 people. His 1.78 "flying 20" tied Brian Thomas for the fastest at the combine. Experience as a kick returner and gunner, "genuinely enjoys playing on special teams". Missed a few games after a motorcycle accident in 2021.
- Malik Washington: Led all WRs in forced missed tackles this season. Inexperienced on special teams outside of kick returns. Torn ACL as a junior in high school.
- Tez Walker: Most of his offers were to play DB. Torn ACL his senior year of high school, and his college team pulled their scholarship as a result. Worked at Bojangle's to pay for his rehab during his one year gap between high school and college. Has been open about mental health challenges he's faced growing up. He had the only 20+ yard catch allowed by CB Nate Wiggins in 2023.
- Burton: 6 schools in 8 years, a reputation as an undisciplined player, and had "up and down moments" with the coaching staffs at Georgia and Alabama. Played for former Chargers WR Curtis Conway at one of his many high schools and was teammates with Johnny Wilson.
- Rice: Never lived with Jerry Rice growing up. Joined track team as a junior in high school because college football coaches questioned his speed.
- McMillan: Family believes he's a better baseball player than football player. Received dual-sport offers from schools including Oklahoma and USC. Nothing crazy, but has suffered several injuries over his college career. Re-aggravated his MCL sprain multiple times this past season, which forced him to miss a lot of time.
- Javon Baker: Left Alabama after two seasons. Initially committed to Kentucky in the transfer portal, but they pulled their offer so he ended up at UCF instead. Says he learned a lot from DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle at Alabama. More drops than TDs in his college career.
- Cowing: One of the lowest ranked recruits in UTEP's recruiting class but he led the team in receiving 3 years in a row. Became a father during his freshman year of college. Entered the transfer portal to try to find a small school near Arizona to be closer to his son and was shocked when several big name schools came calling. Had an NIL deal with the Boys and Girls Club, which he says was very influential on him as a child. Feisty blocker despite his small stature. Was banged up throughout his college career but never missed a game. Only FBS player with 85+ receptions each of the last two seasons.
- Johnny Wilson: Was only the #21 WR in his recruiting class, but he received almost 40 scholarship offers. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce was one of his main recruiters and got him to ultimately commit to Arizona State. Was one of many players to leave Arizona State amidst NCAA investigations. Didn't receive much attention in the transfer portal but he reached out to FSU head coach Mike Norvell and convinced him to offer a scholarship. Doesn't play as strong as you'd expect, struggles to match DB's physicality. "Hears footsteps" working over the middle of the field. Zero special teams experience. Missed most of 2021 due to a hamstring injury.
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7 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Interesting you say that because Legette is the Metcalf comp for me in this draft. Size and speed and ability to go up and get the ball. Not a fluid route runner, but so much a physical stud that it doesn't matter.
BTJ is a tough comp. Best I can come up with is a bigger Will Fuller.
I’ve said it a few times in this thread, but the main thing that made DK such a great prospect IMO was his ability to beat press coverage and then accelerate immediately. Legette doesn’t have either of those qualities IMO whereas it’s Thomas’ calling card.
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On 4/6/2024 at 9:30 AM, DCOrange said:
Sounds like Dakota Leffew might be the one to keep an eye on. He'll be a 5th year senior, but this past season was the first time he's played point guard as their starting PG got hurt two games into the year. It would be a high risk move. I don't really think it makes a ton of sense for him to be the target, nor do I think it makes a ton of sense for him to even want a PG role, but we'll see I guess. He showed a lot of flashes of passing ability this past season, but over his 4 year career playing in the MAAC (in the conversation for the worst conference in Division 1), he has 233 assists to 228 turnovers.
Unfortunately there aren't a lot of point guards out there right now; there's a lot of scoring guards but it's pretty light on guys that will consistently create for their teammates. Carlos as mentioned above is certainly one of the few, but I'm not sure if he offers enough scoring. The one kid that seems to offer both the scoring and creating upside is Malik Mack from Harvard, who is notably friends with Donnie Freeman, but it doesn't sound super likely at the moment. He's asking for a ton of money to leave Harvard; it doesn't sound like Syracuse is willing to match his price but it sounds like maybe nobody will so he may have to decide if he just wants to take the most he can get or simply stay at Harvard (which is obviously a very good choice too lol).
I think we were really hoping Erik Reynolds from St. Joseph's would enter the portal. Similar to Leffew, he's not really a point guard but has shown flashes of passing ability. But what he does have is some of the best shooting/shot creation in the country. Unfortunately it's starting to sound like he'll just end up staying at St. Joe's.
Sounds like everyone's been balking at the asking price for Harvard PG Malik Mack and it's slowly becoming more realistic for us to get him. Not sure who else might be in on him beyond these three schools, but I've heard us, Georgetown, and Vanderbilt are three of the schools that have mutual interest.
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1 hour ago, zevo said:
The more I read and listen to…I want no part of Brian Thomas jr. Especially if he requires a trade up. This is the thing that would make me most miserable on draft night
Legette is the guy I desperately want
Understand it's probably much more than that chart swaying you, but Legette is significantly lower than Thomas in the career YPRR part of that chart and just on par in terms of the target rate. Mitchell is slightly above them in target rate but below them in YPRR.
17 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:I like comps. Do you have a comp for Thomas in your mind? What about Leggette?
Walterfootball compares Thomas to MVS and Leggette to Breshad Perriman. I would be pretty disappointed in both of those outcomes.
ESPN compared Thomas to Tee Higgins and Leggette to AJ Brown.
He's obviously nowhere near as jacked as DK was, but skillset/usage wise, Thomas is very similar to DK right now IMO.
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I'd rather just draft multiple WRs in the draft but he wouldn't be the worst flier to take. Issue is he may be best suited for the slot at this point and we have plenty of guys to line up there.
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I think the part of Keon's game that can theoretically translate immediately are things like backshoulder throws and just contested catches in general over the middle. That, his run blocking ability, and the YAC stuff should allow him to have an immediate role in an offense.
There's a lot of areas where he needs to grow. He's the second youngest WR in the draft class (beating out Xavier Worthy by a couple weeks). One thing that would help a ton is that there's reps where he properly uses that strong body of his to get the route leverage that he wants and then lean into the DB before exploding away to create a lot of separation. It's not something that he does consistently right now, but given his combination of youth, physical tools, and seemingly good intangibles, those that might take him early are betting on him making stuff like that a more common occurrence.
I think a few years earlier in our team building, Coleman is someone that Beane would have had a ton of interest in. I'm not so sure about that in 2024.
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19 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:
Any ideas as to who?
Sounds like Dakota Leffew might be the one to keep an eye on. He'll be a 5th year senior, but this past season was the first time he's played point guard as their starting PG got hurt two games into the year. It would be a high risk move. I don't really think it makes a ton of sense for him to be the target, nor do I think it makes a ton of sense for him to even want a PG role, but we'll see I guess. He showed a lot of flashes of passing ability this past season, but over his 4 year career playing in the MAAC (in the conversation for the worst conference in Division 1), he has 233 assists to 228 turnovers.
Unfortunately there aren't a lot of point guards out there right now; there's a lot of scoring guards but it's pretty light on guys that will consistently create for their teammates. Carlos as mentioned above is certainly one of the few, but I'm not sure if he offers enough scoring. The one kid that seems to offer both the scoring and creating upside is Malik Mack from Harvard, who is notably friends with Donnie Freeman, but it doesn't sound super likely at the moment. He's asking for a ton of money to leave Harvard; it doesn't sound like Syracuse is willing to match his price but it sounds like maybe nobody will so he may have to decide if he just wants to take the most he can get or simply stay at Harvard (which is obviously a very good choice too lol).
I think we were really hoping Erik Reynolds from St. Joseph's would enter the portal. Similar to Leffew, he's not really a point guard but has shown flashes of passing ability. But what he does have is some of the best shooting/shot creation in the country. Unfortunately it's starting to sound like he'll just end up staying at St. Joe's.
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18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
With the 36th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Washington Commanders select: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Our plan was to look IOL here or Edge, but our targets are all off the board. Gave heavy consideration to cornerback TJ Tampa as well, but ultimately we could not pass up an attempt to replace Samuel with the best pure route runner in the draft and give our new QB an excellent weapon to grow with. Ladd has maybe the highest floor of any receiver in the draft and we just couldn’t pass up the opportunity to add a player of his caliber to our new look offense. He can beat you in all 3 phases of the field and we can’t wait to see him and our new QB hit the field together.
@BigdaddyinOrlandoand the LA Chargers are on the clock!
Really knocking the draft out of the park IMO.
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Finally got around to watching film of Javon Baker and Jermaine Burton, so I'm up to 23 receivers now. Not sure if I'll ultimately get around to more or not...I had Malik and Tahj Washington circled as two that I wanted to watch but I just don't know if I'll ultimately have the time to get to them. I still have to finish up a few QBs as well. Anywho, sort of brief notes on these two guys as well as where I slot them in in my rankings:
Javon Baker
- Good release package off the line
- Good body control to hang in the air combined with strong hands makes him a good contested target guy
- Sets DBs up well, decelerates, changes direction, etc. Ran a lot of vertical routes at UCF but he seems to have the tools to be a good route runner
- Pretty average acceleration and long speed, that combined with the diet of vertical routes may have contributed to him having one of the lowest "open" ratings in the class per PFF
- Pretty strong physically, but had a few times across the games I watched where he just allowed DBs to push him tight up against the sideline and basically make it impossible to make the catch in bounds.
- Kind of just gets in the way as a run blocker vs. someone like Coleman who you legitimately want to design run plays towards
- Ultimately got an early 2nd round grade from me for his film which puts him at the tail end of the top 10. #10 in terms of my metrics rating as well.
Jermaine Burton
- Effortless speed
- Impressive ball tracking on the deep ball
- Will continue to work his way open when his QB is buying time, which could pair very nicely with Allen
- Strong hands, physical at the catch point
- Does a nice job of varying speeds in his routes, getting into the DB's blind spot, etc.
- Has a tendency to run his routes standing straight up/almost running on his tip toes, led to some awkwardness getting in and out of his breaks.
- Generally poor effort as a run blocker
- Got an early 3rd round grade from me for his film, #15 in the class. #20 in terms of my metrics rating.
Overall Rankings
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1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
Mintz is officially gone. I guess expected.
https://orangefizz.net/2024/04/judah-mintz-leaving-is-best-for-everyone/?expand_article=1
Yep. I suspect we have our new PG in the next 7-10 days.
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Sounds like the staff is feeling good about our chances of getting Jyare Davis, a transfer from Delaware. 6'7" upperclassman that was their starting C this year. Probably more of a PF depth piece for us.
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11 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:
Name one!
I know you've already addressed it some extent, but of the 43 WRs I researched, his analytics are nearly the worst in the class and of the 86 WRs I've looked at in the previous two years, only one player that's even close to Mitchell's score has had any production (maybe two if you consider Tyquan Thornton to be a success).
In both his Georgia and Texas film, there's an alarming number of reps where he just doesn't try even when he's meant to be a valuable part of the play.
He's also one of the worst in the class in terms of running after the catch.
And nitpicking a bit more, he doesn't fight for the ball in the air particularly well yet (but he does obviously have the size and athleticism to project success there someday).
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2024 WR Draft Class
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Some of it can pretty innocently be explained away: He blew up early in his high school career and decided to capitalize on that by transferring to one of the powerhouse prep schools (IMG Academy). Got homesick and decided to go back to Atlanta but I believe Georgia has rules against people transferring from out-of-state, so despite growing up in Atlanta, he was ruled ineligible and had to move elsewhere again to continue playing football, so he ended up in California. Some of it, not so easy to explain away; it sounds like none of the coaching staffs that he played for in college liked him. Also not included in the 6 schools in 8 years thing is that he originally committed to Miami, changed his commitment to LSU, and then flipped one more time on Signing Day to Georgia. So he never technically went to Miami or LSU, but he's really had a hard time making a decision and sticking with it.
In Matt Harmon's scouting, he has Pearsall's success rate against press coverage at 67.7% (51st percentile) vs. McConkey at 44.4% (8th percentile).