DCOrange
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Posts posted by DCOrange
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4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:
I question that Corley is not a fit. He seems like he would be in the new coordinat offense
I want to double dip at wide receiver, and he seems like a good candidate
The issue with Corley is he played pretty much exclusively out of the slot in college and almost all of his production came on screen passes. He has the physical tools to become a good WR but it really requires some projection/faith in coaching staff and even then, he's still almost certainly a slot in the NFL where we have Shakir slotted.
Personally, while upgrading from Gabe is easily the higher priority, I do think we could upgrade from Shakir in this year's draft if we chose to but it isn't a major need for us.
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4 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Side note: not that it really matters for us because he's not a fit - but where was Malachi Corley?
Even if you're dealing with an injury and won't be doing anything on field, you still are at the Combine to meet with teams.
Odd that he wasn't there. Was he simply not invited?
Corley was invited. I haven't seen any verified reports about why he didn't do anything, but some random people on Twitter were replying to some of the questions about him saying that he caught Covid.
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9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
Your system has major holes. As do all WR scouting metrics/systems. Your 2024 rankings have both Texas WRs REALLY low. I get that you're not exactly predicting picks, but evaluating the prospects...yet having Mitchell and Worthy both outside the top-10 WR prospects seems wild to me. I'm not a huge Worthy guy, but I do think Mitchell is potentially a sleeping giant as a future #1 WR in the NFL. And Worthy is probably better than I'm willing to admit, and definitely better in terms of draft value.
I'm sure a few WRs will slip through the cracks; I'm really just doing the metrics thing for fun. As I mentioned, Zay Flowers for example was relatively low when I applied the same system to the 2023 class. Having said that, Mitchell came out with a score of -4.98, 115th out of 129. WRs that ranked 100th or worse from the prior two classes:
- Kayshon Boutte
- Tyler Scott
- Isaiah Weston
- Grant Dubose
- Bryce Ford-Wheaton
- Charlie Jones
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Tyquan Thornton
- Johnny Johnson III
- Makai Polk
- Tanner Conner
- Antoine Green
- Justin Shorter
- Jake Bobo
- Jalen Wayne
- Ty Fryfogle
- Slade Bolden
- Braylon Sanders
Jayden Reed is the lowest rated in my database that has shown he might be good; he was 86th. Perhaps Mitchell will be the outlier from that group.
Worthy isn't too bad on the metrics; roughly in the top third of the group over the last three years.
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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
There have been videos in both cases as part of the Embedded series. The "notebook" conversation with Elam was at the Combine and the interview with Kincaid on last year's you can clearly see they are in a suite at Lucas Oil with the stadium visible out the window at the back of the room.
I get that, but point is there were no reports as far as I can tell that we met with them, much like there are no reports that we met with McConkey. That doesn't necessarily mean it didn't happen. I haven't found a public report about us meeting with any of our first rounders in the McBeane era as a matter of fact. Even the reports about Josh Allen stated that we only met with him at the Senior Bowl before bringing him in for a private workout.
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3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
I'll direct you to my reply to another poster 3 posts above yours. We never skip the Combine interview and Draft a guy in Round 1 simply on the pre-Draft meeting. The pre-Draft meeting is more of a formality and final piece of the puzzle after a good interview.
Do you have a link to a report that we met with Kincaid or Elam at the Combine? I've checked a bunch of lists of prospects we interviewed, brought in for visits, etc. and searched on Twitter around this time in those years too and didn't find any reports.
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32 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
My honest opinion? This is one of the weakest highlight videos I've ever seen for a supposedly 1st round talent.
First of all nearly half the video is punt returns. Not a good sign when you have to fill time in a highlight video with plays that will be irrelevant when he hits the NFL (unless you are drafting a punt returner in the 1st round).
More importantly every single pass catching highlight is the same. He catches the ball in open space and then zips by the defense at lightning speed. Where are the routes? Where is the shiftiness with the ball in his hands? Where are the catches outside of his frame? Can he find holes in zone? A couple times in these highlights he catches a vertical pass that is a tiny bit out in front of him and he falls to the ground while securing the catch, like a simple soft catch knocked him over.
This looks like a mid-round pick to me. For him to be successful the play has to be set up specifically for him to receive the ball in space because he isn't going to set plays up on his own. The pass will have to be perfect and he'll have to hope the defense takes a bunch of bad angles. I don't see any shiftiness on his tape at all. He actually gets caught from behind more than a couple of times because he doesn't understand how to force bad angles. He's the definition of a straight line player.
If any team takes Worthy in the 1st round it will end as badly as John Ross IMO.
Devil's advocate: stuff like finding holes in the zone generally aren't exciting enough to be in highlight videos.
I am admittedly low on Worthy though. He shows flashes of being able to change direction really well on some of his routes, but I don't think he showed much of it after the catch/didn't show it in his routes consistently either. He's more of a guy that will catch the ball and simply outrun defenders vs. a Kadarius Toney or Zay Flowers type where they're making people miss with change of direction skills.
I don't think it's an accident that he skipped the Combine drills; he knew he'd be able to just stop after the 40 and walk out a winner without having to draw attention to his hands, routes, etc.
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5 hours ago, DCOrange said:
In light of the NFL Combine performances and some prospects that I've revisited, I've updated my film, metrics, and combined WR rankings. I've also thrown in my personal rankings, which isn't necessarily married entirely to the film or the metrics but sort of a bit of A and a bit of B. For example, I think the metrics are too harsh on Mitchell, but I think the metrics is keeping McConkey above Pearsall for now. As mentioned before, some guys like Jermaine Burton and Javon Baker for example are excluded; I haven't found any All 22 film of Baker and I haven't had a chance to look at Burton.
I decided to apply the metrics system that I created this year to the 2023 draft class, mainly just to expand the sample size a bit to see if the results looked out of whack or not. The top ranked guys based on the metrics that I'm looking at:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (had to flip the formula to prioritize 2021 instead of 2022 for him since he played so little in 2022)
- Puka Nacua
- Josh Downs
- Tank Dell
- Demario Douglas
- Quentin Johnston
- Xavier Gipson
- Jordan Addison
- Rashee Rice
- Jalin Hyatt
Notable guys outside the top 10:
- Zay Flowers was #24 out of 43
- Jayden Reed was #30
- Michael Wilson was #28
- Jonathan Mingo was #32
- Dontayvion Wicks was #35
- Justin Shorter was #41
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19 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
I must have a different Idea of what breakout is vs the actually metric. Cambell is a 18.1 but only caught 10 passes as a freshman. He didnt produce until his senior year.
His junior season would have been his breakout as he led the team in receiving that year. But I do think his listed breakout age in incorrect. That’s quite interesting. I believe his correct breakout age would be 20.1 instead of 18.1.
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42 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
Its been more a fantasy stat but age of break is a solid indicator for NFL production. “Busts” usually break out later in thier college career when they mature and have an advantage over younger competition. Worthy breakout age 18.7. Everyone expected a fast time from him. I see Desean Jackson.
I’m not sure the young breakout age is really a great indicator so much as an old one is bad. The youngest breakout ages for a Day 1/2 pick dating back to 2007:
- Bryan Edwards
- Drake London
- Parris Campbell
- Jordan Matthews
- Donte Moncrief
- Aaron Dobson
- Rondale Moore
- Amari Cooper
- Sammy Watkins
- DeAndre Hopkins
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Assuming the top 3 are completely out of reach and the rest are fair game (though I would be very surprised if Thomas made it to 28), my rankings starting at 4 are:
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Keon Coleman
- Troy Franklin
- Jacob Cowing
- Ladd McConkey
- Ricky Pearsall
- Roman Wilson
- Ja'Lynn Polk
- Adonai Mitchell
- Brenden Rice
I would love to have Thomas at 28. After him, I'm honestly a little unsure now. Franklin had a pretty bad Combine; I still like the film and metrics enough that I'd probably take him but I'm not as confident in it as I was before yesterday. Coleman had a good Combine altogether, but the 40 time on top of the lack of separation on film is a very major red flag, so similar to Franklin, I'm not as confident about taking him as 28 as I was previously. Cowing, McConkey, Pearsall, etc. would be reaches/aren't really what I'm looking for for the Bills at 28, but I like them as prospects. Pearsall's Combine performance was pretty eye opening; similar to Mitchell I didn't really see the great athleticism that Pearsall showed yesterday.
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In light of the NFL Combine performances and some prospects that I've revisited, I've updated my film, metrics, and combined WR rankings. I've also thrown in my personal rankings, which isn't necessarily married entirely to the film or the metrics but sort of a bit of A and a bit of B. For example, I think the metrics are too harsh on Mitchell, but I think the metrics is keeping McConkey above Pearsall for now. As mentioned before, some guys like Jermaine Burton and Javon Baker for example are excluded; I haven't found any All 22 film of Baker and I haven't had a chance to look at Burton.
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2 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:
Where’s the college production though? Worrisome and I know he was injured last year
He was productive on a per pass route basis. Georgia just didn't throw a ton/he missed a lot of time. In terms of yards per route run, he was tied for 5th in the class this year behind only Malik Nabers, Jalen Coker (FCS School), Marvin Harrison Jr., and Troy Franklin. He was merely middle of the pack in 2022 in terms of YPRR, but that's still ahead of other Day 1/2 guys such as Keon Coleman, Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Brian Thomas, and Xavier Legette.
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4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
Thomas will go Top 20 … he is out of the Bills reach as it costs to much to move that high..Beane just won’t pay the price …and with the rest of this WR talent available … he shouldn’tDane Brugler is saying he's likely going top 15
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Feel like this second group ran the gauntlet much cleaner than the first group did.
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3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:
I thought you were referring to his total production... I also wonder if the amount of routes run is off for him, because as a team Texas threw fewer passes than you have him down for routes run?
That's because some of the routes resulted in sacks or scrambles.
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Xavier Worthy with a 4.25 and I don't think anyone is super surprised lol
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Pearsall testing as one of the most athletic guys in the class is not something I expected either. He checked pretty much every box on film aside from the athleticism.
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Brian Thomas absolutely flying. Fastest 40 time of any WR so far.
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12 minutes ago, Motorin' said:
I think because he missed a ton of games. But he also had tons of clutch TD's in big games, including the national championship winner.
The only WRs in this year's class to run more routes this season were Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk. It's certainly not a lack of playing time. He just wasn't very productive. This doesn't just apply to him by the way; the same goes for Coleman, but Coleman isn't as nuanced a route runner or apparently as explosive an athlete as Mitchell is.
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17 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
That's still less than 3/4 of the time on the Outside in the College level.
There are guys who are thought of as Outside guys that have to switch to the Slot at the Pro Level.
At 5'11 with a 36" vertical, 185 pounds soaking wet, and less than 75% usage on the Outside at the College level - it's *at best* a projection to say you can stick him on the boundary 90% or more in the NFL and that it's going to work out best for him.
He was 75% out wide two seasons ago and 79% this past season. He lined up out wide more often than Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, Malik Nabers, and several other guys that nobody is questioning as a wideout.
I do think taking his physical traits into account, it's not as clear that he can play outside as some of these other guys, but to pretend 75+% out wide isn't a high number is simply not true.
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1 minute ago, Pete said:
40" is amazing hops. That has to be a combine high
7th best vert among the corners
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Some very high verts from the second group so far.
- Malik Washington - 42.5"
- Ricky Pearsall - 42"
- Xavier Worthy - 41"
- Tez Walker - 40.5"
- Rome Odunze - 39"
- Brian Thomas - 38.5"
- Isaiah Williams - 38"
- Johnny Wilson - 37"
Broad jumps:
- Tez Walker - 11'2"
- Xavier Worthy - 10'11"
- Ja'Lynn Polk - 10'9"
- Ricky Pearsall - 10'9"
- Johnny Wilson - 10'8"
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I feel like this tracking is new this year (or at least new to the public) so I'm not sure what exactly to make of it, but it's certainly interesting.
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I really can't get over Mitchell's combine. I don't know what to make of it. A guy that explosive with his size and route running ability should have been dominating college competition and instead he's near the bottom of the entire draft class in a lot of the production metrics. I just revisited his film for a third time a couple days ago and now I'm wondering if I have to do it again lol. I just don't get it.
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After yesterday who is your WR pick at 28?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
His measurables this weekend were enough for me to bump him ahead of some of the guys that I had tied with him in terms of grade, but honestly, it kinda leaves me questioning him more if anything. With his hands, routes, and being on paper one of the best athletes of all-time, why did he struggle so much to produce in college at multiple schools? It doesn't really check out. I think some of it can unfortunately be explained away by the fact that he looked like he wasn't really trying on an alarming number of his snaps, but even when he did try, he didn't produce as much as someone with his profile should have. Very strange evaluation.