DCOrange
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Posts posted by DCOrange
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2 hours ago, DJB said:
That early part of round 2 is going to see a huge run of WR’s
Thats why passing on WR at 28 or moving back to 40 is a bad idea
I agree there will be a big run. I think the pickings after a trade down will still be very good though and my guess is the guys I prefer will still be there.
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35 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:
Yep, along with the ability to win vs press man in the NFL playoffs, which is what the Bills haven't had this whole time. His physicality and suddenness would give us that.
I don’t think suddenness is a strength for him at all personally, nor is dealing with press coverage. Of the 13 WRs Matt Harmon has charted so far, the only two worse at dealing with press coverage are McConkey and Roman Wilson.
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15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
How would you rank the top 5 pure vertical threats in this draft? Don’t include Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze.
Assuming we're talking purely about their ability to win down the field, probably something like:
- Brian Thomas
- Jermaine Burton
- Javon Baker
- Troy Franklin
- Adonai Mitchell
Worthy, Legette, Tez, and Coleman are in the discussion there too.
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37 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
Everytime I’m ready to go with my mock , I change my mind about things. One thing I’ve been consistent on is Worthy going before the Bills pick. I think Miami loves him and another team before 28 will take a chance on him.
Hope you're right
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8 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Who the hell is his QB?
Just as I watched Mason Rudolph and James Washington jumped out at me - watching this film "who is that QB?" jumped out at me. Penix, right?
Polk does make it look like he just pressed a big red "easy" button when it came to catching those bombs, though.
Yeah, that's Penix. He definitely has some moments where he looks like an amazing passer, but for the most part, I think he's pretty mediocre. I know Ben Solak for example had him charted as the least precise of the perceived top 6 QBs in the draft. I think there's too many red flags there for my liking but he's a fine flier in the 3rd round if he makes it there. I think he's going to end up being my QB5 or QB6 depending on where I end up with Spencer Rattler.
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9 minutes ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:
FML
Are you sure that wasn't about Burton? Not saying you're wrong just saying can't remember hearing anything like that about McMillan
There was nothing about character concerns in McMillan's bio in Dane Brugler's draft guide either and I feel like it would definitely be in there if that was out in the world. At any rate, I'm not a fan of his game anyways but that's interesting to hear.
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4 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:
Buffalo Bills
1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troyhe has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.
I keep going back and forth on whether I think the optimal move is to trade up, trade WAY up, or stand pat. This feels like a really good outcome though. Two of my favorite WR prospects in the draft and a good safety prospect. I'll differ to others on how the other Day 3 picks are but if we came out of the draft with Brian Thomas and Javon Baker, I would be very pleased.
21 minutes ago, julian said:I’ve seen plenty of people agreeing with your idea of Baker eventually becoming a #1, lots of respected talent evaluators, yet I always see him late 2nd,3rd rnd and in some cases a day 3 pick.
Why the disconnect ?
Think there's been some rumors that he struggles to learn the playbook, but beyond that, not really sure. It seems like everyone in the draft community says he's underrated but if everyone says it, is he really underrated?
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2 hours ago, LEBills said:
The bolded is so interesting to me because Nabers crushed zone in YPRR (4.5) and Burton was at 3.2 YPRR vs Zone. Both were markedly worse in yprr vs man.
Is it just that the QBs are throw them better balls in zone coverage, and struggling to get them balls in good position for bigger plays against tighter man coverages? And do big plays vs zone mask some of the down by down poor separation vs zone for Nabers and Burton?
Thanks again for posting
I can't explain all of it, but one thing I should mention is that %'s in general are higher against zone coverage. Harmon is basically tracking how often they get open against different coverage types and it's easier to get open against zone defense vs. when someone is actively trying to follow you everywhere. So with Burton for example, his success rate against man coverage was 75.0% vs. 78.6% against zone coverage. But the 75.0% against man is 3rd best while the 78.6% against zone is 3rd worst. That doesn't really explain why Nabers YPRR would be better than everyone against zone while his success rate vs. zone is behind most of them, but just providing some context. I'd guess the real explanation is that if Nabers scores an 80 yard TD against zone, that greatly impacts his YPRR but it only counts as one success against the zone coverage and doesn't count any more than beating zone coverage for a 2 yard gain would. Considering how explosive Nabers was, that would tend to help his YPRR a lot while not necessarily helping his success rates as much.
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32 minutes ago, SWATeam said:
I think the complete focus on an outside guy is overstated.
Yes, we need to replace Gabe. But we also need to replace Diggs. Made we get a Ladd or Pearsal early to play the Y and get an X later or via trade or something.
I think that may be at least in part what Samuel is for.
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Jermaine Burton is next up for Matt Harmon...looks like his profile will be posted today or tomorrow. The data is pretty good though. 3rd best success rate against man in the draft class, though he is tied with Nabers for 3rd worst against zone. 3rd best against press coverage as well and I know his hands are considered to be very good. Says based purely on film and his data, Burton would be a 1st round pick. Maybe bumped down to early 2nd round based on his off-field issues.
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17 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Oh boy
In all likelihood, he'll be off the board by the time we pick anyways. Would be a nice addition to the secondary though; feels like a very McDermott pick.
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39 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Here’s a question. Let’s say we draft a WR at 28 and another in the 2nd. They both have average rookie seasons. Let’s say around 40-50 catches and 3-4 tds.
Are we set at WR in 2025?
Probably depends what those catches look like but I would lean towards yes.
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27 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
yes, for BTJ.
I’ll say it again…if Seattle wants to go rebuild new regime…
We could pull off a huge trade.
28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, 2nd
for 16 & DK Metcalf
Essentially breaks down:
28, 128, 2025 2nd for 16 (BTJ)
2025 1st, 2nd for DK Metcalf (extended)
(I think this is what it would take for them to move him and IMO it’s fair)
yes, you don’t have a 1st or 2nd next year
but you just added 2 huge Beasts on the outside who can also FLY & you kept pick 60 for whatever
DK Metcalf
Brian Thomas Jr
Samuel (line up anywhere)
Shakir (slot)
+ Kincaid
We’re set for years.
IMO Beane needs to be thinking along these lines. The position is begging for a massive move
FWIW, Benjamin Allbright is saying Seattle is basically a lock to take Troy Fautanu at #16.
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15 hours ago, DCOrange said:
I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:
- Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
- Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
- Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
- His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
- One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
- Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).
Profiles for Franklin and Xavier Legette were posted today. Updated rankings:
- MHJ - #1 out of 63 he's scouted since 2021, Top 10 pick
- Rome Odunze - #3, Top 10 pick
- Malik Nabers - #8, Top 10 pick
- Brian Thomas Jr. - #12, Clear 1st rounder
- Ricky Pearsall - #17, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
- Ladd McConkey - #18, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
- Adonai Mitchell - #20, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
- Xavier Worthy - #25, Priority Round 2
- Troy Franklin - #28, Priority Round 2
- Keon Coleman - #33, Good Day 2 Option
- Xavier Legette - #34, Good Day 2 Option
- Roman Wilson - #50, Late 3rd/Early 4th
Franklin
- 58th percentile vs. man
- 72nd percentile vs. zone
- 26th percentile vs. press
- Does a great job stacking DBs when working downfield and also does a great job breaking off his routes to come back to the ball on curls
- His poor results against press coverage point towards potentially being more of a flanker WR rather than an X at the next level
- Doesn't look comfortable working over the middle of the field
- "Difficult evaluation because he has some nuance to his route running and the type of foundation you want to build on, but the lack of play strength and his frame really haunt him".
- "I don't know how you watch Franklin play and not come away concerned that he doesn't trust his hands"
- His relatively good base of fundamentals and route running should make him much more valuable than more limited vertical types (such as Valdes-Scantling). If he can bulk up some without sacrificing his speed and flexibility, he could be really good.
Legette
- 19th percentile vs. man
- 62nd percentile vs. zone
- 19th percentile vs. press
- Fits into the same bucket as Keon Coleman where Harmon believes he best projects as a big slot in the NFL
- Good timing working over the middle, finds windows in zone coverage and displayed the ability to keep those windows open as long as possible
- Transitions to run after the catch very well
- Raw route runner, struggles with isolated routes and "is not at a place in his development where he can win one-on-one
- His plan against press coverage is "wildly underdeveloped"
- "Hard not to be cautious when projecting an older prospect with this lack of seasoning"
- Stellar in contested catch situations and has good hands in general
- "If a coach wants to use Legette outside because of his physical gifts, the ceiling for this kind of guy is an Alshon Jeffery-type; a productive contested catch maven who has big seasons but is likely best as a complementary threat. Possibilities open up if he lands with a more creative coaching staff who has a vision for him beyond the X-receiver downfield combatant"
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27 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Interesting WR ranking.
I don't always agree with Thor, but he is at least willing to go against the grain with some of his takes. Also now the second person in two days to compare Troy Franklin to Marvin Mims.
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1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:
Yeah but in a smaller league right? He's 6'7..
That could certainly fly in a mid major.. but I don't think he could play center in the ACC
Certainly a smaller league, but he's basically the same size as Maliq Brown and probably a little stronger. I don't think we'll really want to play him at C but if McCleod and Patterson end up being hurt/non-factors, Davis will probably be asked to fill in.
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15 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
Where does Davis slot? Can he play PF?
Benny Williams to UCF
Davis is mostly PF. Can probably fill in a little at C or SF if needed. He was the starting C for Delaware last year.
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9 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round.
For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.
I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:
- Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
- Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
- Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
- His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
- One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
- Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).
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Jyare Davis to Syracuse is official. Gotta think Dakota Leffew will follow soon.
In outgoing transfer news, Justin Taylor committed to James Madison and Maliq Brown is visiting (gulp) Duke.
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8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think he runs routes well at all.
He showed at the Senior Bowl that he has the movement skills to run good routes IMO but in actual games it felt like by far his biggest strength was more just utilizing his speed on crossers, posts, etc.
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30 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
I like him and I think he has some of the skills and the intangibles that Beane will like. Feels like an exclusive slot guy though which between Shakir, Samuel, and the big slot/TEs, I feel like there isn't much opportunity there.
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1 minute ago, section122 said:
Since both of them have the effort question, is it fair to say that maybe they were coached to take it easy on certain plays?
I don't really buy it personally, particularly with Mitchell because the same effort issues showed up at Georgia. Hard to say for sure with Worthy since he didn't switch schools/staffs.
1 minute ago, section122 said:Worthy outperformed Mitchell's best year in all 3 years of college. @DCOrange are there any concerns with Mitchell's late breakout or does his age negate that?
Yes. If I went just off of the metrics that I like to look at, Mitchell would literally be near the bottom of the draft class and one of the lowest rated I've had in the last few years (out of almost 130 WRs). Worthy is near the tail end of the top 1/3 of that group, pretty good but not great.
1 minute ago, section122 said:Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28? Or is there someone else you would prefer? I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?
I wouldn't take Mitchell at 28 personally. I could maybe get on board with trading up in the 2nd round for him, but in all likelihood, there will be WRs available at #60 that I will have a higher/equal grade on than Mitchell.
I'm not sure there's realistically a WR I would opt for at #28 (assuming Brian Thomas doesn't slide that far). After the big 3 + Thomas, I have late 1st or early 2nd round grades on the following: Coleman, Franklin, Jacob Cowing, McConkey, Javon Baker, and Pearsall. Considering they're all early 2nd round or better, I wouldn't really be mad if Buffalo took one of them at 28 but my guess is there will be better value available at other positions there. Cowing is basically a guarantee to be available at #60 as I don't think anyone is really as high on him as I am (he's also almost certainly slot-exclusive which probably means he isn't a fit for us) and Baker seems extremely likely to be available at #60/could be a trade up into the 3rd round candidate.
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7 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round.
For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.
We'll see where Harmon ultimately lands on him, but I'll be pretty surprised if he's outside his top 10. It seemed that the OP was saying we shouldn't trust Harmon because he's outside of his top 10 when we don't actually know where he is since he hasn't finished scouting him yet.
Personally, I think if you're just looking for someone to be a deep threat and open things up underneath, there's probably a lot of better options than Franklin. The allure with Franklin is that he isn't just a deep threat; most of his targets came closer to the LOS and he was generally very productive on those while still offering some deep ball upside. If you think his physical issues will prevent that part of his game from translating to the pros, I wouldn't bother taking him where he's likely to be drafted. I like him; he's on the late 1st/early 2nd fringe for me.
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21 minutes ago, section122 said:
Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?
Worthy has the production and speed. Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well. Does it really just come down to height and weight?
I think the size, athleticism, and skills give AD a chance to be an elite WR if you get him to buy in. I very much question his effort (not to mention production red flags), and as a result, bump him down to the 2nd round. But he has all the physical traits we're theoretically looking for to fill the X WR spot.
Worthy has the same effort questions but far worse physical limitations, so lower ceiling and same low chance of reaching his ceiling IMO. Not to mention I don't see him as an X, which is the more pressing issue for us. His production profile is definitely a lot more impressive though.
Ultimately, with where I have both of them graded, I know they'll be gone before I'd personally be willing to take either.
2024 WR Draft Class
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
McConkey’s YPRR this season against man was pedestrian (granted small sample size since he missed time), especially compared to his YPRR vs. zone where he was dominant.
Matt Harmon has McConkey as #4 in the class vs. man coverage out of the 16 he’s charted now.
I agree with the concerns about too many similar skillsets and particularly with none of them being a good fit at the X. For comparison’s sake, Harmon has Legette charted as the 16th out of 16 against man coverage (though I know his numbers on Tez Walker will be dead last once he publishes him on the website; he has Tez as I believe the worst he’s ever charted lol) and has Legette at the the bottom against press coverage too (McConkey is also at the bottom).