DCOrange
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My attempt to convince myself the sky isn't falling:
- A lot of people believe Kincaid will turn into a go-to receiver.
- A lot of people believe Shakir is blossoming into a good starter.
- A lot of people believe Curtis Samuel is a good starter.
- It's still a very deep WR class with a ton of guys that project as starting caliber WRs.
- The Chiefs just won the Super Bowl in which their top receivers were a declining (albeit still very good) Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Marques Valdes-Scantling.
If all of that stuff is true, we should still have a pretty good group of receivers even without trading up in the draft and probably a better group than some of the other contenders have had recently.
I don't know how much of that I actually believe though lol.
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Feel like we gotta trade up into the top 10 now. I don't know. This feels like an absolute disaster despite Diggs' age and potential decline we saw last season.
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On 4/1/2024 at 9:40 PM, HappyDays said:
Derrik Klassen with Bleacher Report, whose opinion I really respect, wrote up his top 16 WR prospects:
He breaks down what makes each of the prospects special in their own right. It's a fantastic read.
His list in order:
1. Marvin Harrison Jr
2. Rome Odunze
3. Malik Nabers
4. Keon Coleman
5. Brian Thomas Jr
6. Jalen McMillan
7. Roman Wilson
8. Ja'Lynn Polk
9. Xavier Worthy
10. Ladd McConkey
11. Adonai Mitchell
12. Jermaine Burton
13. Xavier Legette
14. Malachi Corley
15. Troy Franklin
16. Ricky Pearsall
I like Klassen, particularly for his QB breakdowns. These are some real interesting rankings. I really don't see it with McMillan personally; he's on my do not draft list. He's much lower on Franklin than I am too, but some of the other stuff lines up pretty similarly with me. Relatively high on Coleman, relatively low on Worthy, Mitchell, and Legette. Interesting stuff.
2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:He's far from the only Bills reporter that feels this way. If you watch One Bills Live, he's the favorite of both Chris Brown and Steve Tasker at 28.
The Bills Guys at Cover 1 did their first full Round 1 Mock for every team and took Legette with Mitchell, Worthy, McConkey, Coleman and Franklin still on the board:
As we get closer to the Draft and coming off the Combine, he is rising more and more. Good chance that's from hearing things from teams. He was picked at 29 in Mel Kiper's latest Mock.
This idea that he's a 2nd Round prospect that we can probably get at 60 or in a small trade up and we can afford to wait on him doesn't seem to be based in reality, in my opinion. The feeling I'm getting right now from people is that the first 3 guys are gone by Pick 8. That Thomas is going to go higher than expected and that Mitchell is closer to him in league circles than people expect. Both will most likely also be gone by the time we pick.
If he's the guy Beane likes, he should take him at 28 and shouldn't try and get cute about it. Coming off his measurements and performance at the Combine and the type of WR he is, I think his current value is a Late 1st to Early 2nd Round as the Floor type of guy. It's no guarantee he'll be there in a Trade Down and I don't think we'll be able to Trade Up from 60 far enough to still get him.
I think you're probably correct that if he's the guy Beane wants, he should just take him at 28. I hope that's not the case though personally.
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28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
His record the past few years is not great. Loved Drew Lock. Loved Zach Wilson. High on Kellen Mond. High on Matt Corral.
To be fair, the Lawrence draft after Lawrence was pretty dreadful. Likewise with 2022. I know he said Mond was like the best passer in the draft class which is simply asinine. I can't remember the comments about Corral but somebody has to be ranked somewhat high in each class lol. I don't think his track record is horrendous or anything but he has significant misses just like everyone else does.
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3 hours ago, HappyDays said:
I would be really surprised if he fell out of the top 3. But one thing going against him is Chris Simms ranked him as his #6 QB in the class. Some will roll their eyes at this, but while Simms has been too high on a couple QBs (most notably Zach Wilson) I can't remember a time where he ended up being too low on a QB. He seems to have a great eye for identifying mechanical issues that will lead to limited success in the NFL.
I have a really hard time taking anything Simms says seriously after he credited himself with nailing the Josh Allen draft because he ranked them correctly at one point, but in reality, he changed his rankings like 5 times after that and ultimately had Rosen as his #2 QB and Lamar as his #4.
I'm fine with the occasional miss, like being weirdly high on Kellen Mond or having Zach Wilson over Lawrence (though that was honestly pretty egregious IMO). I'm not fine with just putting out a bunch of different versions of rankings and then saying whichever one looks the best in retrospect was the real rankings.
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16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
With 2nd overall pick, the Washington Commanders select: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
While its been no secret he is our guy, we are excited to officially make Drake a member of the Washington Commanders and the foundation of our future. We couldn't be more excited to add a QB with all the size and physical gifts you could want in an NFL franchise QB. We are enamored with his big arm and accuracy allowing him to make any throw at any given time on the field. We know the staff and players are excited to get out there and start working with Drake. While we believe he can come in and compete now, he will still have to show it and earn it on the field just like everyone else.
@TPS and the New England Cheatriorts are now on the clock.
#1 QB in the class, and one of two 1st round prospects IMO. Drives me nuts that he might fall to the Patriots in real life and at the expense of my local team too. I really hope this is how it plays out in reality.
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13 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
this dude is a baller.I assume at this point that JJ and Bell stick around to start on the wings so we end up with a lineup of:
PG: ???, maybe Erik Reynolds but not sure
SG: JJ Starling
SF: Chris Bell
PF: Donnie Freeman
C : Eddie Lampkin
I fear the paint defense will be atrocious again as JJ and Bell haven't really shown the effort to defend on the perimeter and Lampkin almost literally cannot jump. Gotta hope Red gets those guys to buy in on defense to minimize Lampkin's flaws defensively.
Offensively, we could be good. A little nervous about the ball-handling/shot creation but if Reynolds ends up being the guy, he gives us a lethal shooter on the move. Bell is a great stand still shooter. JJ isn't particularly great at anything but shot it pretty well the second half of the year and has shown some flashes of creating off the dribble. Lampkin is a guy you can run the offense through in spurts; his size is tough to deal with even if he isn't super skilled and he's a creative passer (albeit very careless with the ball like Copeland was).
Not entirely sure what to make of Donnie offensively yet. He didn't shoot the ball well in high school, but he's supposedly been shooting it very well at the McDonald's practices/scrimmages. He's a good athlete and is fairly comfortable with the ball in his hands, though I wouldn't really expect him to break people down off the dribble.
At any rate, if Lampkin ends up being the guy, then it definitely feels like we're hoping to score enough points to make up for our defense. Lampkin does not have the skillset I would personally prioritize in a center, particularly with the likely roster we'll have next season. But I don't know what other options are really feasible for us so maybe this is the best we can do. I'd prefer someone that can protect the rim and elevate around the rim offensively but the fact that we can just post Lampkin up would probably provide some value.
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17 hours ago, DCOrange said:
Think it’s a pretty safe bet he’ll have plenty of suitors. Sounds like we’re targeting Eddie Lampkin from Colorado.
And just like that, Eddie Lampkin is reportedly visiting today.
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48 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
So probably the two most exciting guys from our team last year are gone. Just brutal. Wonder what his transfer options look like. I suspect he has many options.Think it’s a pretty safe bet he’ll have plenty of suitors. Sounds like we’re targeting Eddie Lampkin from Colorado.
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Maliq Brown in the portal
Guess my source was right…just took awhile.
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Matt Harmon, my favorite guy out there for breaking down WRs, published his scouting reports of Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman today (and has published the top 3 guys already as well). Behind a paywall, but I'll post some of the stuff that stood out to me below, as well as Harmon's tweet including some of their various charts:
Brian Thomas
- Success rates against both man and zone coverage were above average
- Success rate against press coverage was elite
- Route chart is unsurprisingly very limited; Harmon compared his usage to DK Metcalf in college.
- His success rate specifically on go routes was otherworldly
- Noted that he is also a very good YAC threat; going down on first contact less than 50% of the time
- Ultimately said he could be a super fast version of Tee Higgins
- Sounds like Thomas is Harmon's WR4.
Ladd McConkey
- Success rates against both man and zone coverage were elite.
- His success rate against press coverage is horrific, so definitely not projected to be an X receiver in the NFL.
- His route tree and general usage in college suggests flanker is probably his ideal role but he would likely thrive in the slot as well.
- Said he's the best in the class at running out routes, partially due to how much vertical pressure he puts on DBs.
- Ultimately compares him to Tyler Lockett. Along those lines, Lockett has generally been a fringe top 10 WR in the NFL in Harmon's opinion, and his development against press coverage was a big reason why so that McConkey will likely need to improve there in order to hit those same heights.
- Sounds like he'll be somewhere in Harmon's Tier 3 or Tier 4 (late round 1 vs. priority round 2).
Keon Coleman
- His success rate against zone coverage was above average, but his numbers against man coverage and press coverage were both very bad.
- Longer bullet here, but the most interesting part IMO was that Harmon said he's charted 29 WRs that were below the 35th percentile in two of three categories (man, zone, press). 22/29 amounted to nothing in the NFL. 2/29 are tough to categorize as a hit or a miss (Christian Watson and Will Fuller). The remaining 5 are inarguably hits (he specifically mentions Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Juju Smith-Schuster as three of the five) and the thing all five of the hits have in common is that they all transitioned to being a big slot in the NFL. That is ultimately where he believes Coleman has the best chance of success.
- To that end, Coleman was pretty good at finding holes in zone coverage, pretty good on in-breaking routes, pretty good making catches in traffic, and pretty good at making defenders miss after the catch; all attributes that should help him win from the slot.
- Two other guys he mentions as comparisons where it goes wrong is Treylon Burks and Jonathan Mingo; their coaches didn't see the vision for them as big slots so they got stuck out wide and have floundered.
- Based on Harmon's scouting report, Coleman would not appear to be a logical option for the Bills as we don't need a slot or zone specialists right now.
- Harmon has him as a Tier 5 prospect (Good Day 2 option, but probably no higher than late 2nd round).
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40 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Yeah, I'm not understanding the people who are like "look at the tape" when it comes to Franklin.
As I've said before, I think "the tape" refers to YouTube highlight reels. When you dig deeper than that, there's a lot of uninspiring stuff in the footage. Stuff that the Combine performance seemed to confirm.
Leading up to the Combine, fans on this board were way higher on him than a lot of the experts were. Now that we get further and further away from the Combine, there's a push by the people that fell in love with the highlight reel to say "forget about what you saw".
They also seem to want to go "oh, he was sick? That explains everything, pay no mind to the Combine". A couple major problems with that for me:
1.) Sickness had no bearing on him being 2" shorter than he was listed and having under 9" hands.
2.) If his sickness contributed to his slower than expected times - why didn't he re-run the 10 yard split and 40 Yard Dash at his Pro Day?
There also seems to be this idea that us having a Private Workout with him means that we're heavily interested in him. In all actuality, that's not a good thing. Top Prospects aren't generally asked to re-do their workouts or agree to do that on a visit. Us asking and him doing that speaks to how badly he looked at the Combine.
Long story short, the "tape" isn't anywhere near as strong as the few minute highlights would lead you to believe. And the Combine dispelled the things that made me think he was a 1st Round guy before I watched more than just highlight reels and seemingly confirmed the concerns I had from when I did.
Troy is not one of the 8 WR's I have a 1st Round Grade on. He's my WR10 and I'd only be interested if we went with another position in Round 1 and couldn't get one of the first 9 guys I have above him.
I think his tape is mostly very good. The main negative that I questioned a bit on film and was seemingly confirmed at the Combine was his hands. He didn’t drop the ball in the games I watched but it didn’t really look like he was super confident catching the ball and it left me wondering if he just kinda got lucky in the games I watched. Then he struggled with it at the Combine. Definitely a concern.
I think he’s one of the few in this class (outside the top 3) that has a true calling card though. Most of these guys require projection or are solid in some areas but it isn’t super clear where they can win on day 1. Franklin showed he can get open in the short passing game with creative releases at the line and that’s something we could definitely use. Add his vertical ability on top of that and you have one of the best WR prospects in the draft IMO (if you can get past the potentially shaky hands).
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I've really only scouted the QBs and WRs (and read about some other positions but I wouldn't really swear by anyone since I haven't watched their film.
- Drake Maye - To me, the #1 QB in the draft. For the life of me I do not understand the current buzz that Daniels and JJ could go ahead of him. I don't think those two are remotely close to Maye as a prospect.
- Javon Baker - I still need to watch film properly on him, but I feel like I kinda caught on to him before it was cool to like him which is always fun.
- Jacob Cowing - Might be too small to make it in the NFL, but his film was awesome to me. Really rooting for him at the next level.
- Keon Coleman - Feels like a pretty good chance he busts in the NFL, but he kinda reminds me of Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming where despite all the evidence that we should avoid him, I like him.
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Unless Brian Thomas slides, I’d probably vote to skip WR at 28. After the top 4, I’m not really dying to take any of them in the first round. There should be plenty of talent available in the second and if we get nervous, we can trade up in the second round no problem.
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2 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
Justin Taylor would be a great fit at Sienna too! He is more of a MAAC-type player.I think he will definitely end up at a better program than Siena.
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3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
I don't know if he was really ever gonna crack the line up
Given how many scholarships we had the year we took him, I'm totally fine with taking a flier on a late bloomer with his height and athleticism but between injuries and simply lack of development, it was probably time to move on. I wonder if he'd consider following Gerry to Siena or if he'd prefer to try to catch on at a bigger program again.
1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:He was always going to be a head coach one day.. so it was just a matter of time of time
Maybe they can bring back devo
Really curious to see what they end up doing with that assistant vacancy. I haven't really heard anything concrete but seems like the prevailing theory at the moment is that they'll look to bring in someone outside the Syracuse family. Someone else however mentioned Demetris Nichols as a possibility too. Guess we shall see.
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Peter Carey has officially entered the transfer portal.
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3 minutes ago, Cash said:
Given that it came from Warren Sharp, I wouldn’t be shocked if he took Legette’s YPPR against man coverage and compared it to everyone else’s overall YPPR, or otherwise was shady statistically. Dude is either a scam artist or stupid.It’s also possible he was just talking about Legette’s rank among the guys that are perceived as great WR prospects. Gould is an intriguing Day 3 option but he’s not viewed anywhere near the same caliber of prospect as a guy like Legette.
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3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
In man situations he is an upgrade over Davis. 90% of the offensive production is short to intermediate. Having guys that excel in that area will make for a more efficient passing attack. Without Davis the offense needs a deep threat. Samuel fills a hole. At 28 Wr isnt as obvious. I think Beane adds a wr with deep ball ability with one of their top 3 picks. May not be 28. The wr class is deep enough where Beane can find that player rd 2 or 3 if they really like some better rd 1 or 2.
100% agreed. Think Samuel is a nice upgrade for the offense but doesn’t address the deep ball threat/perimeter threat that we are missing after losing Gabe. Fortunately it’s a fantastic draft for WRs; we should have plenty of options to choose from to add that element. And I tend to think we should pass on the WRs in the first round unless Thomas happens to slide.
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3 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:
I love Harmon’s work and Samuel has obviously played with pretty iffy QBs for most of his career, but the production simply hasn’t been there against man coverage. Like I said, I think he has the skills to potentially be a good WR against man but he’s going on Year 7 or whatever and people are still hoping for him to really break out. I don’t want it to come across like I think he sucks or anything; I like Samuel and am excited to have him on the team. I just don’t think it would be wise to assume we’re all set with he and Diggs as the man beaters. Would much rather add one more weapon that projects to be that type of player.
Even if you want to assume Samuel will be a beast against man, we still have more of a need for that skillset than beating zone IMO.
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9 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
against man coverage 4.0 is the claimI know some of his backstory. Both of his parents died before he finished high school. He’s had a tough road.
I heard a clip of a South Carolina reporter/journalist rave about how Legette got so good because of his insane work ethic in the offseason.
He seems like a guy you’d love to root for
Oh duh lol I was reading the wrong part of the chart. 4.0 still isn't #1 in the class though (but it is #2). Anthony Gould was at 4.3 this year.
9 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:The NFL is a zone league. You want WRs that understand how to beat zone.
That's what Kincaid and Shakir are for. Those two (and Diggs, who is good against basically any coverage) are great against the zone. Aside from Diggs, we don't really have anyone that excels against man coverage (Samuel theoretically has the skills to be but simply hasn't done it to this point in his career).
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9 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Xavier Legette meets most, if not all of the criteria Beane has spoken about IMOConcerns: 1 year of production. A few years older than other WR’s
I always enjoy when different stat trackers cite the same statistic with completely different numbers. Warren Sharp has Legette at 4.0 YPRR this past season while PFF has him at 3.2 (which is still very good, but merely 8th in the class instead of 1st). He was also, as you could probably guess based on his numbers the prior season, dead last in YPRR that year.
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Gerry McNamara to Siena
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4 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:
What would the Bills realistically need to give up (in picks, not silly player ideas please) to get to say pick 10 to 12 for Odunze?
Next year's #1+28+?
At minimum our first two picks this year and next years first. Likely some more future picks thrown in as well.
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Who Should the Bills draft at 28 (TSW community mock version 1.0)) 2024
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
In order:
But I probably only consider the first two at 28.