DCOrange
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Posts posted by DCOrange
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3 hours ago, Back2Buff said:
Ricky Pearsall is up to 39 on DJ's big board.
He's my 5th rated WR. I think he fits perfectly to what the Bills need and what WR work best with Allen. Tell me this isnt what Beane and Mcdermott have been saying:
Pearsall is a loose, smooth wideout with outstanding hands and toughness. He is quick in his release and he understands how to change gears as a route runner. He is fluid getting into and out of breaks. He has outstanding hands. He attacks the ball at the highest point and makes some circus catches (SEE: one-handed gem vs. Charlotte). After the catch, he is quick to transition up the field and has the elusiveness to make defenders miss in space. He has a lean frame, but he plays with excellent toughness and competitiveness. Pearsall followed up an excellent 2023 season with a solid week at the Senior Bowl and should have a starting role from Day 1 for his drafting team.
New WR spots (change from last version in parentheses, + means they moved up the board, - means they moved down):
2. Marvin Harrison Jr. (0)
3. Rome Odunze (0)
4. Malik Nabers (0)
17. Brian Thomas Jr. (-1)
25. Adonai Mitchell (+8)
34. Ladd McConkey (+8)
39. Ricky Pearsall (+9)
41. Xavier Worthy (0)
43. Troy Franklin (-6)
45. Keon Coleman (-9)
47. Malachi Corley (-3)
49. Roman Wilson (+1)
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28 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:
He’s crappy so use a second rounder on him? We tried that with James Hardy.
I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I'd guess if he's saying he's not in his top 8 WRs, he's probably shortly after that, which in this class likely means he likes him a decent amount. Just not at 28.
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3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:
Let’s go on the record now boys … week before FA which could lead to a “fluid “ outcome if they sign or trade for someone
1 pick only as to which WR they are taking at 28…( or a minor trade up like last year)
Let’s assume Thomas is out of reach as Top 20 and Beane won’t pay the freight to move up…
So who you got folks?
My real guess would be that we trade up for Thomas or pass on WR at 28. If we have to go WR and it has to be at 28, my guess right now, as much as I would not like it, would be Xavier Legette. I think at 28 (again limiting just to WRs), it's likely a decision between Legette, Coleman, and McConkey and my guess would be that's the order they have them in.
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5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:
I think Legette and McConkey may both go in the first, unfortunately. I expect the Bills to favor the big X, which is why I posed the scenario in the way that I did. I know Worthy is fast as the wind, but I still think he's just too light. I dropped Franklin after his disastrous Combine, and it turning out he's smaller than advertised. I like Pearsall, but as BillsFanForever19 pointed out, he's a slot. I would go for Coleman if he dropped to the second. And Walker, too, really. Rice, a bit later, for me.
Anyway, I love McConkey, but I'm skeptical that is the way Beane is prioritizing the position, though I'm only guessing, of course.
McConkey played out wide a lot more than Pearsall did, but I think Pearsall is probably in the same boat where he might be able to play out wide but might be better suited to the slot. He was close to a 50/50 split this past season between lining up out wide vs. the slot and he was mainly playing outside at the Senior Bowl practices.
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2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:
The age thing is not as big as some make it out to be IMO. A 1st rounder has a 5-year rookie deal and then typically another 4-year deal.
After 9 years in the NFL, it's a crap shoot as to what a player's worth is going forward. He would be 32 and the young guys are 30ish.
It's not about how old he'll be on his rookie contract; it's about the fact that he literally didn't do anything in college until he was a very old (for a college player). The track record for WRs like that is historically atrocious. People can say if he was 21 instead of 23, he'd be a top 10 pick, but he was 21 once upon a time. He had 63 yards that season.
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I think taking emotion out of it, this was an obvious move. Really sucks that he couldn't stay healthy.
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Hopefully means 3-4 new WRs coming in this offseason. A man can hope.
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38 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:
Watched one of those Buffalo podcasts yesterday (I think cover1) and someone said that was common in their offense (he was talking about Mitchell) because their plays often went to one side of the field.Can you please provide more details about what you’ve seen with Worthy taking plays off?
Edit: I urge people concerned about his work ethic to watch Worthy’s recovered fumble play from the video I noted in my above post.
It's the same deal as Mitchell. They both just flat out don't run their routes an alarming amount of the time, cut routes off early, give zero effort blocking, etc. And it isn't just when the plays are being run to the other side of the field. This is obviously bad just in general, but it's especially bad to pair that up with a QB like Allen who extends plays and tries to find guys to throw the ball to on the run.
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I should add that I think including 2018 would mean adding DK Metcalf to the list, so it's not impossible to be good despite this. And even then, 2018-2023 isn't exactly a huge sample.
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2 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:
Any word on Chance Westry?
The staff initially thought he'd return around the holidays this season, but he suffered another setback. At this point, it'll be going on two years since he played in a competitive game; he's a very talented player and I know the staff is very high on his skillset, but I think we have to basically treat any contributions he gives us as a bonus at this point.
Last I heard, we have no plans to bring in a guard through the transfer portal, so probably planning to just roll with Quadir, JJ, Copeland, Cuffe, and Elijah Moore as ball handlers. Sounds like our main focus in getting a legitimate center, which makes a ton of sense but it'll be interesting to see how we make the roster work with Maliq and Freeman both best at PF. Freeman will almost certainly be starting, so is the plan to demote Maliq to make room for a center or are we talking about more of a depth C rather than a legitimate starter? Not sure.
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27 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:
I think Mintz could be one of those "addition by subtraction" types. He shows little interest in playing defense and is a poor shooter. He seems more interested in "getting his", than in getting teammates involved. I do expect improvement from both Starling and Copeland, but we need size down low, in the worst way. The interior defense was horrendous for much of the year.
I do think we could definitely improve our offensive spacing by subbing Judah out for a better shooter, but he's by far our best scorer right now and probably our best creator for teammates too. Not an easy guy to replace.
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If we could just get Judah to stay one more year, I feel like next year's team could be awesome. Going to have to hope for more improvements from Quadir/JJ and or maybe some portal luck.
Donnie Freeman is probably the first kid to come here in a decade where he's pretty much a no-brainer NBA player unless he literally doesn't improve at all.
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2 hours ago, DJB said:
It’s sImply coaching with Worthy and Mitchell. Both can be coached up to work hard on every snap
It’s possible but I’m not sure I buy that, especially considering Mitchell already played for one of the best coaches in the country/one of the biggest hardasses and still loafs around. Ultimately it’s up to Buffalo to try to figure that out in their interviews but actions speak louder than words. I wouldn’t blame them for taking the chance on one of them. Just isn’t a risk I’d be willing to take in the first round personally. I think once you get past the top 4 WRs, they all have either serious red flags or are perceived to be relatively low ceiling options, so we'll have to take a risk on something. Efforts a tough one for me though.
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16 minutes ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:
Interesting. Honest question I haven't watched anything but highlights, did they take plays off in the playoffs? Were they potentially doing it in college to preserve themselves for the pro pay day? Is that a thing?
The game this year against Washington is not in the All 22 database I have access to, but I did watch Mitchell when he played for Georgia in the playoffs and it was the same deal. Part of why I'm kinda skeptical that he was coached to do that at Texas. He was doing it at Georgia while McConkey for example played his ass off.
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7 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:
I love everything about Mitchell from athleticism to route running. The only question I have is why does he not show up in games as much as Worthy. Does he take plays off or is the QB just missing him? If he loves football and has that Odunze competitiveness I don’t see how he’s not a first round pick and a likely target of ours
They both take a lot of plays off.
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2 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:
Is there a best source for stats on college WRs getting separation?
It isn't listed in PFF's premium stats, but their draft guide includes "Open Target %". Of course many factors can influence this such as the routes they're running, the coverage they're facing, etc. It's easier to get open finding a soft spot in a zone vs. working open against man coverage for example. If you're running a ton of crossers across the middle, you're bound to run into traffic more often than a curl route against soft coverage. If you're the focus of the defense, you'll probably have a harder time getting open than the #3 target on your team. Having said that, here's where everyone ranked:
Name Open Target % Tahj Washington 89% Malachi Corley 86% Jordan Whittington 86% Lideatrick Griffin 84% Xavier Worthy 84% Jacob Cowing 83% Ladd McConkey 82% Brian Thomas Jr. 80% Jalen McMillan 79% Malik Washington 79% Troy Franklin 77% Marvin Harrison Jr. 77% Jamari Thrash 77% Ricky Pearsall 75% Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint 73% Devontez Walker 73% Jermaine Burton 72% Xavier Legette 69% Brenden Rice 66% Malik Nabers 64% Ja'Lynn Polk 64% Rome Odunze 61% Adonai Mitchell 58% Ainias Smith 56% Keon Coleman 53% Johnny Wilson 51% -
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1 hour ago, Brand J said:
I wanted Franklin at 28 before the combine, but if he’s going to show up 2 inches shorter and almost 20 pounds lighter than his listed ht/wt, that boy better run a 4.3. His time was disappointing for his frame, can he add 20 pounds and maintain 4.4 speed? Not a risk I want to take in round 1.
While his time was disappointing, it's so close to a 4.3; he probably would have been in the 4.3's if his technique was slightly better. He's still very fast. The weight was definitely disappointing and the gauntlet drill was really bad.
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1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:
Are there any examples of very successful WRs who are Worthy's height and weight — 165 lb at over 5'11"?
I though he was 178 but that 165 number is not sitting well with me...I don't think those exact dimensions have ever been done before but Devonta Smith (6'0" 175) and Jordan Addison (5'11" 173) are close. Guys his size generally do not blow up in the NFL and guys with his speed generally do not blow up in the NFL, so he'll be an outlier if he's good. He's definitely talented though, and I say that as someone that does not want him lol.
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31 minutes ago, section122 said:
I think dontayvion wicks showed well this year.
Jake bobo also got a lot of good press in seattle.
Would you feel good if our first round pick matches Bobo’s 196 yards as a rookie?
Wicks was solid as the #3 in GB this year.
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35 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Who would you say is the best WR when plays break down and the QB is out of the pocket?
Of the guys I've watched film on so far, I would say Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall, Ladd McConkey, Jacob Cowing, and then maybe Brenden Rice and Roman Wilson. And absolutely not to Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. Hard to say with Brian Thomas and Troy Franklin as Thomas' QB never really bought time outside of the pocket to throw and Franklin's threw the ball so quickly there were very limited opportunities for these sorts of extended plays.
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32 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
not sure metrics wise who it is?
2 of Mitchell, Legette, Thomas Jr, Coleman, Pearsall is my guess
based on height / vertical / what I've seenIt's tough to say statistically because the sample sizes are always small when you're talking about contested targets. For example, over the last two years, Marvin Harrison Jr. had the most contested targets in the draft class with 60 combined between the two seasons. For plays that are already sort of coin flips by nature, you'd really like to see a larger sample to draw conclusions from. Having said that, the guys at 50% or higher in terms of catch % on contested targets are (highest to lowest):
- Cornelius Johnson
- Tahj Washington
- Casey Washington
- Luke McCaffrey
- Rome Odunze
- Bryson Nesbit
- De'Corian Clark
- Hayden Hatten
- Jermaine Burton
- Javon Baker
- Ja'Lynn Polk
- Malik Nabers
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Malik Washington
- Zakhari Franklin
- Moose Muhammad III
- Roman Wilson
If we limit it to guys that had at least 20 contested targets over the two years, you're left with:
- Luke McCaffrey
- Rome Odunze
- Hayden Hatten
- Javon Baker
- Ja'Lynn Polk
- Malik Nabers
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Malik Washington
- Zakhari Franklin
Some of the WRs that people have talked about in general for this class that don't make the list:
- Troy Franklin - 46.7%
- Tez Walker - 45.2%
- Xavier Legette - 44.0%
- Keon Coleman - 43.5%
- Brenden Rice - 42.9%
- Jacob Cowing - 41.7%
- Ricky Pearsall - 40.9%
- Adonai Mitchell - 40.0%
- Xavier Worthy - 29.4%
- Jamari Thrash - 29.0%
- Malachi Corley - 28.6%
In terms of going up and high pointing the ball in traffic, Odunze, Baker, and Polk definitely pass the eye test in addition to the numbers.
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5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
Mitchell always played on stacked offenses where they had multiple high-end talents to “feed”. Just at Texas, they also had RB Brooks - one of the better backs in this draft, Worthy- likely 1st round WR and TE Sanders who might be a 2nd pick, too.
Sure, but he ran more pass routes this year than every other WR in the class besides the Odunze and Polk and was still below average in terms of yards. He was near the bottom of the class in terms of targets/pass play and yards/route run too. Other guys that played with talented teammates: Nabers, Thomas, Franklin, Harrison, McConkey, Rice, Tahj Washington, Odunze, Polk, McMillan, Worthy, etc. all above him in that regard, most of them significantly above. Keon Coleman is the only other guy that was in a similar situation and had similar struggles but he at least produced decently well on a per snap basis before he transferred to Florida State.
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3 minutes ago, Brandon said:
If I'm reading this right, this looks more like game attendance than individual meetings. The numbers are always the same for players from the same school. All three Texas players score 3. The two Michigan players score 15. The two Georgia players each score 7. Florida State...both score 6.
I'm not sure it means much.
Correct. It's based on how many times we scouted them in person/who was in attendance. It makes sense that a school like Michigan (played more games than everyone else, had more NFL talent than everyone else, played against top notch Big 10 schools, and is a shorter flight for us to get to) would be at the top. I'd like to know more about where the points are coming from in some of these cases. For example, did we go specifically to scout Iowa (in which case, you can probably deduce that DeJean is a target) or were they simply playing against Michigan?
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28 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
didn't Shakir have the #1 success rate among all WR's in the league when targeted? The dude was a stud in the playoffs. His acrobatic play for the TD against PIT then an insane catch for a TD against KC. Would have had a 2nd TD if Dion Dawkins blocked another half second
Shakir was good this season, no doubt. He didn't do much against man coverage though; his target rate against man was extremely low and he wasn't very productive when he was targeted. I think most of the slot guys that are projected to go in the first two days and a few day 3 guys of the draft project better against man coverage than Shakir currently is/Shakir projected in college.
Shakir dominated against zone coverage this year, which is obviously still very valuable but we have a need for guys that can beat man coverage and that can come both out wide or in the slot.
Edit: I would add, Ladd McConkey's college metrics are very similar to Shakir's metrics this season. McConkey was #3 in the class in Targets/Pass Play and #2 in Yards/Route Run against zone, but #38 and #19 in those two metrics against man. Guys that shined in both of those metrics against man coverage and are likely slots in the NFL: Malik Nabers (could play anywhere but he obviously is out of reach barring a gigantic trade), Malachi Corley, Joshua Cephus, Malik Washington, Anthony Gould, Roman Wilson, and if we focus on 2022 instead of 2023, you could add Jacob Cowing and Jalen McMillan to the list as well.
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2024 WR Draft Class
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Definitely a little reminiscent of Beane being excited by Gabe running a slower than expected 40 lol. I think anyone that watches Franklin on film knows he’s still one of the fastest WRs in the class. I think the shaky hands he showed at the Combine is concerning though; that was something I had flagged as a potential flaw in his game on film but it’s always tough when you’re just watching a handful of games.