Just plugging things into the NY Times Playoff simulator.
Right now the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the Conference. That grows to 7% if the Bills beat the Steelers and the Fins beat the Chiefs.
The Bills then have an 18% of winning the Conference if they beat the Broncos and the Saints beat the Chiefs. But that grows to 100% if the Steelers lose one more to either the Browns or the Colts, and the Bills, Steelers and Chiefs finish in a 13-3 tie.