Mikey152

I think we are arguing different things. they can be deeper than last year without Cooper and better this year with him...those two things aren't mutually exclusive. I have definitely never said Amari Cooper makes us worse. Clearly he helps. But he isn't the #1 receiver on this team. He plays a role, and one that they clearly had a gap at thanks to the epic fail that was Curtis Samuel so far this season. I really hope it is his injuries.

How's this for a stat... The Bills have won every game where Khalil Shakir led the team in targets, and they have scored 30 in every game where he was first or second in targets (whole team, not just WR). The Bills have lost every game where Amari Cooper led the team in targets. They scored 30 nine times when he wasn't first or second in targets.

Cooper has played in 6 games...They have scored 30 in 11. Amari Cooper has outsnapped Mack Hollins in one game since he became a Bill...Week 8. That also happens to be the week Curtis Samuel missed. He was supposed to be their man beater, but for whatever reason it has failed, so they brought in a replacement. Is it good that with Cooper, the Bills have a guy that can win 1 on 1? Sure. That is a valuable skill and makes their offense harder to play against. But it isn't THE REASON it is hard to play against...if it was, Cooper would get way more snaps and targets. Cooper keeps teams honest, he doesn't make it go. Clearly I was wrong when I thought the Bills had a guy like that on the roster in MVS/Claypool/Samuel. They all failed to be that guy and I am glad Amari is on the team. But lets not get it twisted...he is an important piece, but not as important as the other pieces.

Serious question... Lets say you're right, and despite his limited snaps and targets, Cooper is having an impact on the passing game indirectly. Why was he 4th in snaps at WR the last two weeks, if he is truly a #1 WR and that impactful? What other #1 is 4th in snaps on their team? And what about the reverse? Do you not think that Hollins and Coleman are having similar impacts on the running game and Josh's efficiency? There is a reason they get more snaps than Cooper, and it isn't because they are better at getting open. If the only thing that mattered was the ability to get open, teams would play 5 WR most of the time. Of course that is ludicris, but so is the idea that WR only help the offense when they draw coverage or catch passes. I watched the Ravens game and the Houston game. The main reason the offense looked bad wasn't WR, it was offensive line. There were free rushers on A LOT of plays. Josh was sacked 3 times and pressured on almost half his drop backs against the Ravens, and it wasn't because he was holding on to the ball because nobody was open. There was clear miscommunication up front. Houston game was similar, and Josh forced things and played his worst game this season. The Bills did make a good move grabbing Cooper. It is clear that Samuel wasn't who they or I thought he would be this season against man.

Typical... Changing the argument to suit your needs is par for the course. Let me state this plainly for you before I move on from this thread for good. The point of this thread was that the WR room, despite the drop in name recognition, would be better than last year. That the offense would play better. The people who agreed believed that the more diverse skill set and selfless, team oriented mentality would outweigh the production gap. The non-believers were worried that without a true #1 (or two), the offense would struggle to move the football and be worse than last year. The graphs above compare the Bills with and without Amari Cooper...like it is some shock that adding a pro bowl WR made the offense better. But where is the comparison of the pre-Cooper Bills to last year? That first graph wasn't best in the league, but it sure wasn't the worst, either...I bet it was better than last season. Curtis Samuel was a flop for whatever reason. Coleman had growing pains then an injury. Amari Cooper fixes that. But it doesn't change the fact that I wouldn't trade Hollins and Coleman for a healthy Diggs and Davis right now. That was the point of this thread...The WR group got better, even if it isn't "better". And that is true. It has been true all season. They are a better team with this roster. That trade was about Samuel falling off a cliff. Even the haters have been surprised by that. So you're claiming non-linear correlation? I find this funny, because this runs counter to the whole #1 WR theory, but whatever.

Who would he shadow on the 50%+ snaps where Cooper wasn't on the field last week? Against Detroit Cooper had the 4th most snaps AT RECEIVER and zero targets, but he is the reason we put up 48? Really? Amari Cooper is clearly a better WR than the guy he replaced (MVS), but to act like he was the key to unlocking this offense is just silly. Honestly, this offense looked fantastic when Kincaid and Coleman were out and Knox/Anderson were getting more snaps...perhaps we should cut them. Amari Cooper on last years team instead of Diggs, and this offense isn't this good. It's the line, it's the RBs, its the new WR all coming together. Amari isn't the only reason they have gotten better as the season has gone on, and its completely disingenuous to suggest as much

Correlation does not equal causation....

Again, nobody is saying Amari Cooper isn't valuable... I just find it ironic that for a hundred pages people argued that the WR position is about more than just stats, and all we saw was "Top 25" this and "100 Targets" that. We "NEED" a number 1 WR for this offense to function and were told a #1 was somebody with big numbers and a bigger contract. So We start off like a house on fire, and haters are quiet...then we suck for a few weeks (which also happen to be the worst the Oline has played all season) and haters are saying "see, told ya" Beene gets Cooper, and the offense gets better...but Cooper isn't getting #1 snaps, gets hurt, and isn't even putting up close to #1 production in any stat. Haters say "WR is about more than just stats" WTF Side Note: The Bills have scored 30+ points 11 times this season. Amari Cooper has played in 6 games for the Bills and started 4. He was 4th on the team in snap percentage this week against the Lions behind Coleman, Shakir and Hollins. He was also 4th last week behind Hollins, Shakir and Samuel.

No, I meant the negative folks are...

Moving the goal posts... Every post about a #1 WR used stats and contracts as confirmation. Of course, now that we traded for Cooper none of that matters. We have a #1 that was on the bench in the red zone in our last game, has been hurt, and has poor numbers...but clearly he is the reason our offense is going off now because he sucks away all the coverage. I'm not saying Cooper wasn't a good get for this team, but to act like HE is the reason the offense is good now (or even one of the top 5 reasons) is just silly.

And the game Cooper missed? the real reason they struggled in those Ravens and Houston games were two fold: they were the worst games the line played by far, and Shakir was banged up or out. claiming that Cooper is the reason they have gone on this run, and thus “victory” is pretty ridiculous

If we're still using stats to describe the WR group, we still haven't learned anything.

Assuming the injury happened on the hit and not the subsequent fall, why are we worried it is a ligament? Did the hit bend his wrist in an awkward way? Unless I am missing something, this is a blunt force injury and the joint was never forced into an awkward position, so it is more likely a break or bruise...not seeing how a ligament injury is even possible.

...I didn't make the thread

I am sure having Cooper has been a great addition, but to act like he is the key that unlocked it all is kind of silly. He really isn't getting a lot of snaps or targets and certainly not enough to explain the sudden increase in production. The real difference the last two weeks has been A) Healthy Shakir B) Emergence of Coleman (taking snaps from Hollins and MVS) C) Worse teams and a home game. I will say, Samuel was a big miss on my part. He just has not been a factor, at all. That clearly hurt their ability to beat man against good defenses, and it also pushed some guys up the roster that maybe shouldn't be getting so many snaps.

sounds silly, but it almost makes sense to get a personal foul intentionally.

Maybe I can ask this way... What is more likely, last season...that Stephon Diggs lost a step and could no longer "separate" or that changes to the scheme limited his ability to do so in favor of a more team-based offensive system? In other words, certain routes and/or route combinations make it easier for receivers to win against man. So do certain alignments and personnel groupings. This idea that a good receiver just constantly separates from coverage regardless of who is covering them, where they line up, or what route they run is ridiculous and not at all realistic. I would bet money that teams that more frequently use 6 OL, 12 personnel, and condensed sets tend to have a lower average WR separation regardless of their perceived talent. They also probably have a better epa and running game, so it's a trade off.

I don't know, does it? Matt Harmon also loves Curtis Samuel because he separates... Matt Harmon has an agenda. The idea that on a given play all the receivers will be open/separating is just silly.

Dorsey had a JA friendly system...

Ah yes, I am sure Ross Tucker poured over hours of tape before making that claim... And I have watched the games and some all-22, including some posted on here. In fact, there were just two clips the other day "proving" that our WR don't get separation...Only, the first they showed had 7 DBs in cover 2 and Kincaid could have been wide open but he ran right at the safety, not to mention the back was available and Josh didn't even look at him. But please, tell me all about how that was on the WR. FWIW, Diggs wasn't really getting separation when they made the switch to Brady, either...everyone assumed he just lost a step or was disinterested. But maybe it has more to do with the scheme, and more specifically with the type of adjustments they are allowed to run. It's pretty clear (to me) that, unlike under Dorsey, the WR are being coached to run the routes as assigned. That pretty much means the route combinations become the coverage beater, not the player. In theory, that works...but it forces your QB to process a lot more information pre and post snap and generally only one or two guys will be open on a given play. Oh and as for teams with bad receivers throwing less to first read...maybe you should take off the blinders and look at the other teams below average in that stat...Bears, Packers, Lions, Niners, Vikings...those are all good receiver teams.

A few things: There is no way someone can, with 100% accuracy, determine the first read in a play simply by watching all-22. Beyond that, who is compiling/vetting these charts? Credentials? Bottom line, this is not an objective stat and should t be treated as one. Second, even if this stat is 100% true, I think you are committing a logical fallacy due to confirmation bias. Your premise is the WR suck, and this “stat” which doesn’t say if the first read was open or not, if the first read was even a WR, or the type of defense being played against the call confirms it because the first read isn’t good enough to get open. there are a lot of reasons this is happening, and I don’t even know wr is at the top of the list. First, Josh has always had a tendency to hold the ball…he’s not really an anticipatory thrower AND he has a ton of confidence in his ability to extend plays. Second, this offense has changed to more of a “run your route” style offense, which means the post snap defense has a lot of influence on where the ball is going. His first read is going to be based on his presnap read. It’s not like he picks a receiver and says “get open” and the receiver can’t, so he moves on. Honestly, I don’t think the problem is the receivers, per se. I think trying to read the whole field under pressure while trying to not make a mistake is causing Josh to be indecisive. It doesn’t help that none of the receivers can just destroy man coverage and make it easy for him, I guess…but he shouldn’t need that if he is who we think he is. pretty much, I think Josh is the best thrower of the football in the NFL and I don’t think it is close…that covers up the fact that he is middle of the pack when it comes to decision making, and this offense and receiver core is exposing that to a certain extent. Hopefully some more “easy” reads with Cooper gets the job done.

Do you not see what is happening here? Your original premise was the Bills offense will struggle because they have bad WR. That we are wasting Josh Allen. Clearly through three games, this has not been the case. So now you have moved on to the premise that Josh and Brady are doing this IN SPITE of the Wr. I can show you your bias pretty easily… Our Qb is low in attempts (don’t trust him), most of his passes are around the LOS (probably because he throws so many picks otherwise), He barely completes passes to his WR despite the fact they are one of the most efficient groups in the nfl (game manager), and he never throws to his first read (indecisive and timid). You give Josh the benefit of the doubt because you think he is great…but he’s middle of the pack in yards this year too, yall. He’s also on track for not even cracking 4K, and yet this is his best season ever. i won’t go as far as to say it is hypocrisy, but it is 100% rooted in bias heading into the season. With Josh, you think he is great so you focus on the good. With the WR, you think they suck so you focus on the bad. Maybe, just maybe…football is a team sport, and the Bills have built a good team. WR included.

Ironically, this same crowd told me all offseason that I wasn’t allowed to project rate stats. (Even though that’s literally the point)…but apparently highly variable volume stats are fine to project.

That's why this thread is pointless... They are starting with a premise (the WR are bad) and using confirmation bias to support their theory. Josh could have the best season of his life and win the MVP, and sentiments in here will be that he did it IN SPITE of his WR. How silly is that? Here is my question to all the haters: Joe Brady isn't new. Josh Allen isn't new. The Oline isn't new. The RB aren't new. The TE isn't new. Even the scheme isn't really new. The only thing that is new this season is the WR room. Why are you SO sure that some of this success isn't because they are good in this scheme? And if they are good in this scheme and the offense and team succeeds, doesn't that make them good for the Bills? And doesn't that equally make guys like Diggs and Davis worse IN THIS SCHEME? Flat out, this scheme requires the receivers to catch, RAC, and block. Same as the rest of the skill guys. The guys this year are CLEARLY a better fit than the guys last year, regardless of your arbitrary metrics about who is better. All it takes is two eyes to see it. Everyone talks about how much better Josh looks, like he took some magic potion this offseason...maybe he just has a better team??? Analogy: A Ferrari is better than a RAM 1500...unless you need to tow something.

So true... But just for fun, lets just try and pin him down... Badol - Ignoring the small sample size for the moment, the fact that the Bills are the top scoring team in the NFL, 3-0, and have very low yardage output from their receivers compared to both the league and their own team last season are all true. So, that leads us two one of only two possible conclusions, as far as I can tell. Either: A) Yardage is an important indicator of WR quality/performance, and the Bills are succeeding IN SPITE of their WR...which also suggests that maybe top-flight WR isn't critical for a good offense? or B) Top flight WR are important to a good offense, and the bills have a good offense...which logically means their WR are good (or at least a good fit) and yardage totals maybe aren't the best barometer of success because they are at least partially dependent on targets.