Mikey152

Say what you will about this year’s receiving core, but one thing is for sure…they are ALOT different physically from previous groups Josh has had at his disposal. Looking back, our receiver group was almost comically stereotypical…Big X that only runs straight, do everything z that is your #1, shifty and reliable but smallish y, and a gadget guy. Don’t forget the special teamer who gets snaps and the emergency project guy too. There is a reason that is the classic setup…the physical skills compliment the role well in a traditional offense. The problem is, traditional offenses have become incredibly predictable in the modern NFL. You might be able to complete passes and even move the football if the guys are talented enough, but you’re gonna struggle with separation, YAC and scoring in the red zone. Sound familiar? This season, they turned over practically the whole room. Out of the projected top 6-7, only one guy is < 6’ and even he is close to 200 lbs. They’re all fast, or at the very least explosive and athletic. And none of them have been the guy before (which could be a problem, granted). In some ways, it feels more like the way a college team builds their roster, in that they just try and get the best athletes they can and worry about how to use them later. All of this makes for a group that is almost the antithesis of what we have had before, especially when you factor in the other skill spots. As a result, we are way less predictable this season. i get why that is scary, because that also means we as fans don’t know what to expect either, and it feels like everyone is unproven, including the OC. But there is one guy that is proven: Josh Allen. I have 100% faith that he will run the crap out of this offense and have his best season ever.

You're exhausting. JF was the QB for 10 games, and Andy Dalton was the QB for 6 in 2021. And Teddy Bridgewater was not good in 2020...I don't care how you try and spin it. Mooney put up 200 more yards on 43 more targets...in other words his YPT was way lower. Only had like 20 more scrimmage yards when you factor in carries.

Yeah, it surprised me...Harmon has different metrics on reception perception. It was an honest question on the ESPN analytics...just stumbled upon it today. If I had to guess, I think it is a man vs. zone thing. This one doesn't seem to distinguish.

Are we talking about the same Mooney? Dude is a stick. Flanker/slot. While we are talking about wr: https://espnanalytics.com/rtm Curious about thoughts on this...

How so? Fields>Brdigewater, plus Mooney needed 140 targets to get those yards. Curtis put up his numbers with a lot less targets (97). He was fighting with guys like DJ Moore and Robbie Chosen for targets (and CMC, but he got hurt early), while Mooney was up against the shadow of Allen Robinson and the TE room. In the two healthy seasons following their breakouts, Samuel put up considerably better numbers across the board with just as bad a QB and more WR competition. He was also drafted significantly higher and is much bigger. again, I think the contract is more about things like fit, Second contract vs third contract, etc. For example, Curtis Samuels contract with Washington was 3 years for 34 mil...He was either a top 10 paid receiver or close to it last season before all the wild deals But, and even though I don’t believe this…let’s call it a wash. Pitts and Kincaid cancel out and Samuel and Mooney cancel out. So it’s down to London and a bunch of scrubs vs. Coleman, Shakir, MVS, Hollins, Knox and whoever is 6. is that really a 12 spot difference?

I had a feeling contract was going to be your response...That is super situational and team/player dependent. If I had to guess, it probably comes down to age and injury history, but I am not sure. For the record, I also think Samuel is better than Gabe Davis (who got 13 AAV, too) But since you brought up Samuel...aside from contract, please tell me all about how Mooney is a better player. Im genuinely curious. The last two seasons, Samuel has had more targets, catches, yards, touchdowns. He is also 20lbs heavier AND faster AND has better hands.

Mooney the #1 on the Bills? That's a bold statement...gonna need you to qualify that one. By what measure? Im not sure he cracks the top 3 in Buffalo, and definitely not the top 2. Dude is a stick with questionable hands. Sure, he is fast and pretty good with the ball in his hands...but come on. As for TE, Id say #1 TE is a wash, but who's their #2? That guy from SF? Drake London is probably better than what the Bills have, barring Keon Breakout (funny thing is, Drake London is probably best case Keon comp), but after that and Pitts/Kincaid wash, the Bills run away with this one. Also, this is TE and WR (per the sharp list) so not sure what RB has to do with anything.

Ugh. You still haven't answered the actual question...Instead of arguing my points, please give me ANY reason that the Falcons WR/TE are better than the Bills. I looked at their roster. London, Mooney and Pitts. Smith and Hollins were their #2 TE and WR, respectively, in targets and yards and they are gone. Behind those 3 there is nothing of note (late round picks and UDFAs with almost 0 production). Mooney and Pitts had 1k seasons in 2021, but significantly less production since (QB related? Maybe) I am struggling to see how that roster is better than the Bills. The point about Hollins should be clear, because he is a direct comp. On the Falcons, he was their second most productive WR last year. They added Mooney and some late rookie draft picks/UDFAs. That same guy on the Bills may or may not get any run on this team, suggesting we have a deeper room. So, all that said...instead of arguing my post, try arguing the point...for once.

At the end of the day, I get why they are/were skeptical. Last years offense might not have been a great fit. No one guy had consistent production historically. The only thing I really ever had a problem understanding was the idea that they lacked talent. This years receiver group is considerably bigger, faster and more athletic than they have ever been with Josh at QB...by like a lot.

Here's the crazy thing...because of the skill set guys like Kincaid, Cook, and even Knox have...they might draw the CBs depending on where they motion to and iso a WR on a LB

That sure is a giant sized formation...Imagine the damage they could do in the red zone.

Dorsey and Daboll played more against coverage, not people. In theory, you have an answer for everything a defense does...so as a concept it is great. But defenses have gotten pretty good at disguising coverage, and if the WR needs to read it just like the QB, there is a better chance somebody messes up.

I'm gonna get killed for this, I know it already...but I think they're gonna try and use him like the Dolphins use Tyreek. Probably not featured like Tyreek is, but similar from the perspective that he plays as a flanker and is moving a ton presnap. Lots of targets between the 20s as their primary man beater.

Yet he was second in targets, catches and yards among their WR. Yes, I said #5 on the Bills...that was at WR. If we count TE and RB, He is likely #8 in targets this season barring injury. So the point doesn't change. He was a starter on the Falcons and he likely won't be on the Bills. There was nothing disingenuous. This whole thread has gone back and forth between WR or WR/TE (and apparently RB now). But if you felt misled by my post, my apologies. That was not my intent. I was merely trying to point out that he was their #2 WR and didn't clarify. All that said, instead of focusing on how I "lied" maybe you can tell me how you think the Falcons receivers and TE are significantly (16 vs 28) better than the Bills? This isn't a courtroom...maybe focus less on winning and more on a constructive conversation?

We both know I was talking about receivers. But great job grabbing a post from a few pages back, not actually commenting on any of the points or telling me why the falcons TE and WR are 12 spots better, and pointing out my error. Not enough bad news today to gloat about, I guess. you win. You’ve officially killed the thread.

Claypool isn't a savior...and I don't think the Bills see him as one. But it is clear that instead of taking late round fliers on WR, they chose to pick up a bunch of recently highly drafted WR that flopped in the NFL to varying degrees for whatever reason. I think the starters are pretty much locked in as Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid and Cook. Only X and how much 12 we play (and who comes off) is really much of a question at this point. If some combination of Coleman and MVS do a decent job, the Bills will be fine. I know what you think of my opinion, and it is whatever...but as someone who has seen ALOT of Curtis Samuel football, we should be excited to hear he is playing flanker and going in motion a lot.

Legendofricallen.com has the full movie up...

First off, I read the article...It said Warren Sharp analysis team, whoever that is. And they even said the rankings were based on whatever criteria the voter decided was appropriate. It's not hard to see how someone would look at the Bills receivers and think they are bad...Coleman is a bust, Shakir has short arms, Samuel is a gadget guy, MVS can't catch, Claypool is a head case and who the heck is Mack Hollins. That's probably what most people think. Most of those statements even have some truth to them. It's just not the whole truth. I really need to follow my instincts and push away from this thread once and for all. There really is no point. It will be exactly like Alpha said...If theyre good, there will be some excuse like "I did say if Keon or Kincaid stepped up, they might be ok" and if they are bad, full of I told you so. Im not trying to be right. Im not even trying to make a prediction. Im just saying that maybe you should enjoy the ride a little instead of assuming it is gonna suck before it even starts. "Worrying only means you suffer twice" Trying to convince Bills fans their team doesn't suck is just strange.

Fly by me? Of course it is a fact he wrote that...the ranking is the opinion. Not sure this is the gotcha you think it is...I never debated that Warren Sharp ranked them 28th...clearly he did.

Well, the full movie is up...It is even weirder than the trailer. Might still buy a tshirt, tho

Do you think maybe that frustration might have some influence on your opinion? Also, for the record...that's not how scientific method works. If it were scientific, according to his observations his hypothesis would be the Bills are 28th best based on whatever his criteria is, and the season would would either confirm or deny it. Either way, a hypothesis is really just an informed guess. If a scientist were to claim his hypothesis is correct without testing it, he isnt much of a scientist Just curious what you think of all the twitter notes from practice today...guess it's time to start worrying about the defense if they can't shut these scrubs down, huh?

I know what the difference between objective and subjective is…I am a scientist. If you can put “I think” “We think” or “he thinks” in front of what you are saying, it’s an opinion. THAT is a fact. “I think the Bills receivers will be terrible in 2024” ”Warren sharp thinks the Bills are the 28th best receiver group” Neither of these are facts. They are opinions. To make them objective, you would need to say something like “Based on historical production, the Buffalo Bills have the 28th least productive WR group in the NFL. Teams with historically poor production from WR are often unsuccessful” That could be a fact, I guess. But you’ll notice the distinction…it only talks about what has happened (ie facts) not on what will happen (ie opinion) the reason your post isn’t a fact is because there are exceptions to everything you claim. Exceptions that have been pointed out countless times in this thread. You and your ilk continuously choose to not acknowledge this bias in your findings. they have a term for that…it’s called confirmation bias. what is fascinating to me about all of this is most of us are Bills fans. The thing I am leaving this thread with isn’t even anything about the receivers…it’s really about fan frustration. Between the receivers, the coaches, the FO…there are quite a few bitter fans out there. Honestly, that amazes me. During the drought, I totally got it. I probably even get wrapped up in it. “You” are so focused on a SB you started hating the thing you love. The truth is, it probably won’t even get better if and when they do win. It will never be enough, because the problem isn’t the players or the coaches or the FO…it’s you and your perspective on football and life.

I was going to write a long post, but I guess I have a simpler question for you… What makes a football player better or worse than another football player, in your mind? Their draft slot, their production, their size, their 40 time? When you say “objectively” what exactly do you mean, because all I have seen is subjectivity. if we can leave this thread agreeing on anything, it should be the fact that ANYBODYS take on where the Bills WR rank in a season that hasn’t even happened yet is 100% subjective (ie an opinion) supported by whatever objective facts they deem appropriate (thus making it subjective). Because it is subjective…it can also be (shocker) wrong. And it happens A LOT in football. Like more than people are right if we are being honest. So why be so pressed?

I think this is probably my last post in the thread. For all your jabs at being realistic, you seem to be missing some very important basic points about football: - you might not care about things like the running game, defense or the cap, but football teams do. Everybody here makes fun of McDermott for talking about complimentary football, but that is what EVERY football coach in America worth a damn believes in. The key to Johnson, Shannahan and McVays whole systems are the run game fcol - Stefon Diggs (as well as Von, White and Poyer on defense) put us in a tough spot the last few years. Those were our big contract guys, our stars…and they all got hurt or didn’t want to be here. - We have generally been picking at the end of the first round for a while now. You have to get lucky to grab a dynamic guy in that spot. It can happen, sure…but the slam dunks are usually gone. Sure, the Bills could have traded up for Nabers (maybe), but it would have cost them A LOT of draft capital and just wasn’t realistic (or even possible potentially…if it’s so obvious then why would the other team agree?). Here is some realism for you. Our starting 5 targets are Kincaid, Cook, Shakir, Samuel and some combination of MVS/Coleman/Hollins/Claypool. Knox will likely get a bunch of snaps, too, but tbd on who comes off. Hamler, Isabella, Shorter…probably don’t make the team unless it is on the PS or they are undeniable. Say what you want about that starting 5, but all things considered (Diggs trade/dead cap, the turnover on defense, the cap situation heading into the offseason) that’s a workable recover group. The starters are fast and reliable. 4 of the starters have played for Brady. And most importantly, Josh likes them and seems happier than last season.

I left WR out specifically because we are talking about WR. The point is, the rest of the offense is pretty good. A rising tide lifts all boats. Football is a team sport. You don't just support your QB with WR.