Mikey152

I agree 100%...it's all gamesmanship. They have mastered playing football 5-10 mph over the speed limit.

This is the truth... Gilmore was good in Buffalo, but he was also super handsy and got called for it quite a bit. Now, in NE, he is just "physical"

This is not really true... Aaron Rodgers, who is the best deep ball thrower in the NFL, tries to throw it the same distance every time. He focuses on mechanics and side. The rest is all timing.

That safety was in good position to make a play on Mckenzie if Josh threw the ball earlier. Mckenzie wasn't really open until the safety let him go by so he could stay in position for the crossing route underneath...which is exactly when Josh threw the ball.

Takes like this always crack me up...as if other quarterbacks can drop 50 yard bombs into a bucket consistently in a game situation. Deep balls (ie fades, not crossing routes or long throws on a rope) are not nearly as precise across the nfl as you seem to think they are. Most quarterbacks are focusing on inside/outside the numbers, timing, and consistent technique. None of them can throw it 55 yards instead of 58 on command...that's not real life. Their goal is to throw it the same distance every time. Josh is consistently overthrowing his targets and they appear to be to the correct shoulder and in bounds, so it's clear to me that there is a timing issue, not a technique issue (last year he had some underthrows that looked like they WERE technique related). Some of it is on him, i'm sure...because he throws it further, he has to wait longer and sometimes the internal clock goes off in his head too early due to things like pass rush or excitement. Some of it is also on his recievers...they're all pretty small and guys like Zay were horrible at tracking the football. On that miss to John Brown, James Lofton (who is qualified to criticize) even mentioned that Brown looked too early/long...That's going to impact the timing, especially with a QB like Josh who is unlikely to leave it short.

They get called for a lot of penalties because they COMMIT a lot of penalties. It's intentional. They coach holding on offense and on defense, because they know full well that refs aren't going to call it on every play, and they are willing to take those penalties because overall the benefit outweighs the risk. What you won't see them do is commit a lot of stupid penalties like false start, off sides, etc...It's all holds, interference, roughing, etc...and it's on purpose.

The reality is, the biggest way they cheat is rarely ever even talked about... They cheat with the salary cap. Tom Brady is arguably the greatest QB of all time, yet continually makes quite a bit less money than that title should afford him. And it's not all out of the goodness of his heart that he takes less. The team has found ways to compensate him that don't count against the cap, with the most obvious being hiring his TB12 company. It's complete bull####. And beyond the cheating, they are also masters of "gamesmanship" ie pushing the rules as far as they can go without either A) breaking them or b) not getting called out for breaking them...kinda like going 5 mph over the speed limit and not getting caught. In the NFL where the difference between winning and losing is razor sharp, those little edges become huge.

There is a reason why Jones, who isn't particularly fast, is the one who is open on deep balls...It's because he's left in single coverage by the defense, almost daring Josh to throw it. I think it's pretty clear by now that Zay has poor ball skills. Honestly, I think a lot of you WAY overrate the ability of a quarterback, any quarterback, to place a football 40+ yards downfield. On a deep ball like that, their job is to put it in a general area with enough air to allow their WR to make a play. On a ball that is "overthrown" by 5 yards, sometimes the QB leads the WR too much, but often times the WR misjudged the football or looked up for too long. Maybe it's easier to think about a sport like baseball...speed is an asset in centerfield, but there are tons of examples of fast guys that don't reach baseballs that guys slower than them make plays on, simply due to the fact that some people are better at tracking the ball in the air. Zay Jones has horrible ball skills, pretty much at all levels.

I think a WR's ability to track the football is seriously underrated when it comes to a deep ball...A QB is not super precise on something that far away and with that high of a launch angle. It's all about timing and a WR's ability to adjust. Case in point, Tyrod Taylor was one of the best deep ball throwers in the league...when he targeted Sammy Watkins. After Sammy left, Tyrod couldn't connect to save his life.

I will say this... I don't like how slow they are to get to the line sometimes. In the first game against the Jets, this didn't seem to happen and they ran quite a bit of motion...but the last two weeks they seemed to be a bit slower getting plays in and there was more than one rushed snap that just got off in time. Might have contributed to Josh not seeing the whole field.

That safety had a lot of ground to cover when Allen let go of that football. And....Brown is open. But Josh didn't get enough on it. Not only did he not set his feet, but it didn't come out of his hand great. Also, looking at this graphic he probably had more room than I thought towards the pylon

Because he reached the boundary and had to stop running...but when Josh let go of the ball, he was still open, he was just standing still 30+ yards away so it was going to take a strong throw to get there before the coverage did. Allen didn't get enough on it because he was on the move. You're right, though...he might have been able to hit Knox on the sideline, but I think he was only open because the corner who had that zone dropped back to try and play the pass...it would have been similar to the pass he ended up throwing aside from the fact that Know still had a little room to run. But I am done splitting hairs over it. It was a risky throw due to the pressure, but Brown WAS open on the play and Allen was accurate...the timing was just off. So while it was close to being a pick, it was also close to being a TD.

No doubt...but I also think it was a calculated one. They were down 16 on the road. To that point, he also just missed a TD to Brown on the play prior when Mosley threw his hands up with his back to the QB and got a PD. Was decent position, but straight luck to get this arm on the ball. 9/10, John Brown down the seam against a LB with his back to the ball is a TD or penalty.

I never said it was a smart decision...I'm not defending his choice, as clearly he misjudged how long the ball would take to get there when thrown on the run. But you're wrong...he DID have time to set his feet. At the very least he could have settled. He wasn't rolling out so much as stepping up in the pocket. But he got excited when he saw brown open and thought he could get it there. the whole point was yes, it was almost picked...but it wasn't a bad decision, it was bad mechanics by a young QB trying to make something happen. It's not like the safety was baiting him...he just made a nice play. So as much as it could have been an interception, it was a lso really close to being 6. So was the throw right before it with a super lucky pass break up by Mosley.

To me, that's the real takeaway from the first half...outside of the turnovers, the Bills offense actually looked sort of...efficient. Even without a running game. Quick, accurate passes to open receivers...changing the plays at the line...pretty much the exact thing every critic of Josh Allen said he couldn't do.

We clearly were not watching the same football game... John Brown was standing still wide open by the pylon, but it was a long throw by Allen and he threw it on the run without setting his feet, which game the safety time to get over and make a play on the ball. It was accurate and his receiver was open...he just didn't have enough velocity on it to beat the safety. As for the Darnold pass, Bell was covered...hell, he was slowly walking backwards while Darnold was scrambling for his life. Darnold heaved one up to the back corner and the Bills defender, who was right in front of Bell, completely whiffed on the PD. As for sugarcoating...We didn't turn the ball over on that play and it wasn't in the first half, so I'm not sure what you're even talking about. It's you that's reaching with the "should have been a pick"...that's pretty much the definition of hypocrisy.

Yes, he "just missed" throwing a pick...but he also "just missed" a touchdown on that play, too. Was a great break by the defender, but if that ball had a little more velocity, it's 6. It's not like it was a horrible decision, he just didn't set his feet because he thought his arm could get it there. Conversely, the Bills tipped several passes and Darnold threw a few that could have been picked, including the 2 pt conversion. Results-based analysis only gets you so far.

I think 9 OLinemen is unlikely...especially with the position flexibility they have in their top 7-8. Will probably carry an extra WR, LB or secondary player instead, IMO. Outside of that, and maybe who the bubble guys are a RB, S and CB...I agree with your prediction.

Just to clear up a few misconceptions... First off, Vertical and broad jump are highly highly correlated to agility. The muscles you use to jump are the same ones that allow you to change direction...explosive is explosive. The main difference between the two types of tests, however, is the deceleration (or lack thereof) required to change direction (agility) vs. starting from a stopped position (explosiveness). Things like footing, center of gravity, weight...all of those factors are multiplied because they apply on deceleration AND acceleration. DK is at a distinct disadvantage as a tall, heavy receiver with long legs in those types of tests. What happened, at least in some respects, is to be expected. That said, it doesn't mean he can only run in a straight line...it just means he won't be able to use precision to gain separation. He may need to round off a route more than you would like, but his combination of size (both reach and weight) combined with his speed would allow him to run away from corners AND separate from them physically. People keep talking about north/south, but the reality is he would be just as dangerous running east/west. Plus lets be real...this dude would be a split end in almost any offense. His route tree is already going to be limited based on the type of coverage he will most often see...he's either going to beat his man physically at the line against press and get vertical, or stem his route if he gets a cushion. Bottom line is, a guy that size with his flying 20 time is a nightmare and the kind of cushion CBs will need to give him, combined with JA's velocity, will more than make up for a few milliseconds of time needed to CD. If he is actually physical and can actually track/catch the football, he is a steal at #9

2x...both seasons under Reed. In 2017, Smith had an air yards per attempt of 7.6, and in 2018 Mahomes was at 9.2. It also clear based on their arm/skill set that the chiefs were looking to get more aggressive. Completion % went down (though not a ton because Mahomes is clearly a better QB) and touchdowns doubled. FWIW, Smith lost his job in SF for pretty much the same exact reason. For ***** and giggles...JA was at 10.9

Reed is probably not a great name to throw out there, considering he ditched Alex Smith for a far more unproven (and aggressive) Patrick Mahomes...

Not for nothing, but Foster mostly lined up at Split-End, not flanker...

You are completely wrong if you think every player isn't on their board and isn't ranked appropriately according to talent. Just because you have a starter at a position doesn't mean you don't want to know what is available. The player could be an upgrade, backup/handcuff, an heir apparent/cost control, or even trade bait (either in the draft or later). This is where I think fans and GMs differ. Fans are thinking about right now...coaches are too, most of the time. But GMs are trying to build a sustainable roster. They have three years from now in mind just as much as today. Position should really only ever come into play in "all else being equal" type scenarios, period.

I think BPA is too literal. It would be extremely rare that there is a single "best player"...usually it is a group of players lumped together. If two guys are in the same tier, they are considered the same from a value or talent standpoint...that's when you can start bringing in subjective stuff like personal opinions and current roster. If none of the guys left in that top tier fit your team for whatever reason, you should trade the pick and not just give them to a team that does need/want them for free.

I'm pretty sure you are the one that doesn't get it...what we are saying isn't even all that different. But what you were describing isn't BPA at a position of need...it's just BPA. BPA at a position of need is just drafting for need, because of course you would draft the BPA at the position you need...