Zerovoltz
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Posts posted by Zerovoltz
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8 minutes ago, Lfod said:
I never seen Mahomes in games. I heard he played a few games at the end of the season.
Kinda interested in knowing what you saw as a KC fan. Not trolling I am interested in your thoughts as a fan. What did you see on the field that impressed/concerned you?
The Bills passed on both Watson and Mahomes I presume. I would hate to think my team passed on legit QBs.
The first link at the bottom of my post is a good summary....in the preseason....(YES, I know..PRESESAON) ...I'm not looking at the stat line...watch the arm talent...the poise...watch his head...he does NOT stare down targets...he is very good at scanning and moving safeties with his eyes. ....the other thing...he can move pretty well, but Mahomes is NOT a running QB...he is not Vick, not Lamar Jackson...hell, Alex Smith is much more athletic runner than Mahomes.......so, to sum it up...he has good pocket presence..doesn't lock on to a target...and the arm talent is incredible. ....so not just that he can throw it far....but if he has to move left or right..your play isn't broken....he can accurately throw a football from anywhere on a field while on the move...to any target on the field. All the coaches say he eats and breaths football and is a remarkable young man. (sure, they say that about everyone, but you can see it when he talks, etc) .....I've seen plenty of so so QB's...Grbac, Cassel, Bono, DeBerg...Trent Green....Green and DeBerg had enough brains, but not the physical talent. Grbac had a pretty good arm, but was a poor leader. Bono...and others like him...they were just there.....I'm very very excited.
BillsFan4....my post wasn't intended to be critical of what you had posted.....just more or less agreeing that those rankings are a guideline. I don't agree with your assement of Mahomes...but I completely understand your stance, and that it would be very hard to make a call on the small sample size of Mahomes in the NFL so far....I have no problem with anyone who needs to see more before they change their mind about him. Totally fair.
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Yav, do you really think they will be looking for a QB again soon? Trading away a good QB like Smith with a year left on his contract at a reasonable 20 million....that doesn't signal they beleive they have the QB....if they weren't sure, or thought he wasn't ready....you know, they could have kept the well established good QB they already had the last 5 years on the roster........that doesn't tell you anything? It's not even an opinion...just read the tea leaves guy.
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Just now, Yav said:
No. Mahoney was a reach and KC will be looking for a QB soon.
The Alex Smith die hards even exist on Bills forums apparently.
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1 minute ago, Putin said:
Let me ask you this if Mahomes was in his years draft would he be in the top 4 , with Darnold , Mayfield and Rosen ?
I don't think so
NFL coaches and front offices would take Mahomes 1 overall knowing what they know at this moment.
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I hear the 2029 QB class is going to be incredible.
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7 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:
Mahomes received a 2nd round grade from the NFL's draft advisory board -
and wasnt even in the top 10 QBs (as far as draft grades go) from the last 3 drafts.
This year he would most likely be in the 2nd tier of QBs discussion with guys like Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson etc.
***Biased KC Fan Post Warning***
First, let's draw a couple very important distinctions in this discussion. There is a difference between how the consensus "grades" a prospect, and how the prospect actually turns out to be, or is evaluated by the team that took him, the teams that passed him, the teams that wanted to trade up and couldn't.
With that in mind this could almost be a two or three part question.
1. Based on PRE DRAFT GRADES this year and BEFORE the 2017 NFL draft, where would you rank Watson and Mahomes when mixed with the 2018 class?
2. Based on what you know about the 2017 QB's now, where would you rank them Watson and Mahomes when mixed with the 2018 class?
3. Knowing everything you know now about how the season turned out, who you drafted at 27, what pick you got trading back, and what the landscape looks like to get your QB this year, would you still do that trade? or Would you undo the trade and take Mahomes or Watson?
....here is where you should be warned about my bias....so take the following with that information in mind as I attempt an objective take on this.
Regardless of the consensus draft "GRADE", the Chiefs clearly rated him higher than a 2nd round caliber player....and because the Giants, Saints and Texans also had him rated higher than that, the Chiefs, knowing this is their target CORRECTLY identified a trade partner to get to a point high enough up in that draft to get him. With the idea that KC had identified Mahomes, understood there were others who had come to the same or similar conclusions that were NOT IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS DRAFT GRADES, they drafted him where he had to be drafted if you wanted him. Mahomes may therefore have had a consensus ranking of "2nd Round" but the actual market was he was top 10-15 round 1. All a pre draft grade does is set a guide to media, fans, and a very general broad look overall for front office types. Front offices/GMs/scouts etc...are paid to be right, not paid to contribute their thoughts and ideas into a pool so that a consensus can be established that everyone just follows.
Having had all of 2017 to evaluate Mahomes further, see him in practice, work on his perceived and/or real issues, the same staff that drafted him, and the same staff who had won with pro bowl QB Alex Smith, decided that what Mahomes has shown them since they drafted was enough to trade Smith away. ....They traded away Alex Smith, who led the NFL in Qb Rating, won two straight division titles, and wasn't especially expensive considering the QB market we are now in. Smith had another year on his contract. They didn't have to trade him.
Now, for those of you who remain skeptical because you haven't seen enough....you are absolutely entitled and justified in your thinking....I would simply say that you haven't seen enough because you didn't see him in the Denver game, or you haven't seen him in practive, or you didn't see his pre season (YES, I KNOW IT WAS PRESEASON) and you haven't heard Ried talk about what he has in Mahomes...or most likely, you've gotten bits and pieces of some of this at best. That is fine, and to be expected. I don't know the day to day intricacies of Buffalo and I couldn't attest to Tyrod Taylor for example, except reading what folks here might say, or reading his stats....I may have an opinion about Taylor, but it wouldn't be all that well informed.
Having said that...and again, I am a biased Chiefs fan (one who has seen three decades of bad to mediocre QB play) and Mahomes is different, he is special. The scouts missed on his grade but Andy Ried didn't. Totally fair that most folks here can't buy in based on what I am saying here...but 4 games into 2018, your eyes will all be wide open.
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29 minutes ago, #34fan said:
Not for nothing, but this Drew Lock Kid out of Missouri put up better numbers (TD-INT) than Rosen OR Darnold last season!... 6'4", 225, and puts some MAJOR ZIP on that football... Rock gets to the receiver in big damn hurry... 44TDs to just 13 INT's, that's nearly twice the production of this draft's frontrunners, and he accomplished it in the SEC!!!
Tigers could run the table in the SEC next year with him at the helm... I really, really, like how this kid plays... if the Pats get him next draft, -count on 15 more years of domination.
I'm a Tigers fan and I love me some Drew Lock...and I think he will be the best prospect coming out next year....but the kid needs to make more progress....on the field and off it. (he is fairly immature yet) ....Missouri has ran a QB friendly offense and has a good tradition on going for producing some good college QB....I wouldn't get on the Drew Lock train just yet.
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26 minutes ago, MJS said:
Them not taking a QB first is supremely risky. I like Rosen, but there is no guarantee they'll get him at 4. If they like him that much, take him at 1.
This was the part of the article that really made the least sense....If they took Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield....at 1 there is at least to me...still a very good chance the 2nd pick is a QB and the 3rd pick is 100% going to be a QB....Chubb has a MUCH better chance to be at 4 still than Rosen to be at 4. Surely the coaches, scouts and GM all are well aware of that this is the case.
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Just now, PIZ said:
Cool. Thanks fir sharing. I've read it 3 times. Interesting.
If it has been posted here or alluded to here somewhere else...I apologize for being redundant if that is the case.
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Came accross this.....I am not saying one way or another what I think of this....it is one of those "I know a guy who knows a guy" type of things. The guy seems to have at least a shred of credibility as his posts last year on this football forum where he posted prior to the draft seemed to have came to be. Again....I am posting this for your reading enjoyment...not as fact, not as an endorsement of my opinion....in fact, this runs counter to what I still continue to think will happen wich is Darnold no.1 overall. Anyhow....here it is....for entertainment purposes only.
This stirred up reddit a little while ago when a poster imported it from the Browns' section of another forum, Football's Future.
Personally I found the reported takes to be plausible, if not credible, in no small part due to confirmation bias, if nothing else.
However, regardless of the credibility you give it, you might find the described recon approach teams take to be as fascinating an account of corporate espionage as I did.
Below is the OP from the original site with later edits of the reddit back and forth removed.
Here's the link to the thread: https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/7725-the-coaches-want-rosen-at-1-other-serious-browns-draft-rumblings/
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**LONG POST ALERT***
I have some terrible news to inform everyone.
It looks like we really will be passing on Darnold....
THIS IS NOT SOME STUPID TROLL, or me doing the reverse psychology thing saying Baker's going first while secretly feeling giddy and knowing we're taking Darnold at 1 as a way to cope with the possibility the Browns might screw this up.
(Skip to The News below if u must)
As I've said before, my brother in law was a scout & personnel assistant exec for 11 years. I never ID'd his team when he was employed but he was canned in the mass firings when Mr. Reese and co. were fired from the Giants.
Although I'm often wrong about my own predictions, my b.o i. always cautioned me that what he'd tell me in terms of rumors has a chance of being misinformation put out by other teams to hide their true intentions. However, the vast majority of things he told me that I posted on this forum came true.
For example, for those people that actually paid attention to my posts on the old forum before last year's draft, you'd remember that based on what my b.o.i. heard at the combine I posted "the Bears will look to trade up for Trubisky with either the Browns at 1 or San Fran at 2." At the time, only 3 people responded to that post.
I also posted that "Sashi Brown was seen twice via my b.o.i.'s team spycraft department, 1st with Rick Smith of the Texans, and 2nd with Ryan Pace of the Bears at a private membership only room at a Wine & Cigar lounge in Indy" and... "Dont be surprised if we trade one of our picks to the Bears or Texans." That post received 2 responses and came true regarding the draft.
Teams have 10s and even 100s of thousands of dollar budget for their "spycraft" depts that includes things you wouldnt even believe all in order to propel the interests of their million dollar cash cows.
One of the more basic ways for teams to get inside info is to recruit disgruntled "soon to be fired" scouts and personnel staffers away from another team while they are still employed and possibly privy to strategic information. ALL teams try to do this. The best and smartest teams top execs leave scouts & even key personnel staffers in the dark on real rankings and strategy for fear of info leaking out. The elite top execs only inform the owner & a select few before the draft. Smart top execs run disinformation campaigns and put up false rankings in plain view of scouts and staffers so the disinfo will leak to teams giving them an advantage to operate under the veil of confusion.
The News: My b.o.i. told me this morning "the scuttlebut is that 6 Browns scouts & 1 personnel exec have been "respectably" flipped (i.e., they already agreed to move on to a team without breaching the trust of their former employee) due to being promised future jobs & due to being disgruntled"...However, 2 scouts and 1 personnel exec has been "unhonorably flipped" (i.e., informing on the teams draft beliefs while still employed to another team) with 1 person in particular "lacking any sort of ethics and is singing like canary so much that the team he's giving the info to is secretly laughing their a**es off b/c they know there's no way in hell they're hiring this guy after all this."
Apparently, there is already a major rift between the offensive coaches & the top personnel execs regarding the pick at 1 and ranking the QBs. It's likely irreconcilable.
In what was a shocker to me as a "Darnold no matter" what guy Todd Haley, Ken Zampese, Hue Jackson, and Al Saunders (he's become a de facto QB scout) are united in the belief that Josh Rosen is their guy, clear cut by a wide margin. The combine interview only confirmed this and they are all in. They all agree that Sam Darnold is their number 2, but there are some disagreements between the coaches on who is 3rd as some say Baker Mayfield while others surprisingly say Lamar Jackson. All the coaches apparently have Josh Allen 5th which completely surprised me.
The only personnel execs that mostly agree with the coaches are Eliot Wolf & Andrew Berry with Wolf having Darnold as QB1 and AB having had Darnold at 1 precombine but put Rosen ahead at 1 after the interview as Darnold tanked the interview and had no presence on the white board (I'd say did Mariota or Eli have a presence? Did Favre do a great job with X&Os on the board? No... but I digress..)
The rest of the top personnel staff (John Dorsey, Scot McCloughan--yes he's a top staffer more on that in a bit, and Alonzo Highsmith) along with Paul DePodesta have Baker Mayfield as their clear cut leader by a wide margin. The personnel guys then have Josh Allen number 2! Followed by Sam Darnold at 3 and Josh Rosen at 4. Paul DePo supposedly has it Baker, Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, & Allen.
Complicating the matter is apparently Scot McCloughan has come in waving a big stick as a former GM like he's the de facto top personnel guy when John Dorsey isnt around. He pulls his "when i was GM" card out in every debate. He is not consulting with other teams as that was just a farce to buy him time to finish some past due work that he and his company owed some teams for purchasing their scouting services. He is a full time Browns employee. This has in particular caused friction with Eliot Wolf as he thought he'd have that "right hand man assistant GM" role and it seems that Scot will have a powerful permanent position after the draft unless something changes and problems can be worked out.
Right now, John Dorsey is supposedly selling Jimmy that Baker is the top prospect as identified by Analytics and Traditional Scouting methodology with Paul DePo in his corner. Dorsey and Scot were blown away by Baker's combine interview while coaches thought he was too defensive.
As a temporary compromise just to keep the peace while much draft work is still to be done, the coaches and personnel execs are now strongly discussing that they will take their number 1 player on the big board Bradley Chubb at #1 overall and their QB at 4. Which to me makes ABSOLUTELY NO FU**ING sense at all when we need a QB.....but again I digress...
Distraught on Skype I immediately asked my b.o.i. " if this was all a joke" and "how certain are you that this isnt just elegant disinformation on the Browns part"?
He told me it's absolutely not a joke and the same spycraft dept heads (some of the best in the business) that he trusted in NY all those years have the Giants new personnel staff convinced that it is real enough to the point where everyone on the Giants staff except for new GM Dave Gettleman and an assistant staffer are operating as if it's true and they'll have their pick of all the QBs at 2 or at worst Baker Mayfield will go 1.
I've jokingly been saying Baker would go 1 but secretly believed Hue and co AND Dorsey all loved Sam Darnold at 1. I never even considered the thought that Josh Rosen wouldve been the unanimous selection among the coaches.
My only hope now is that some compromise is struck and we go Chubb at 1 and Rosen makes it to 4 based on the personality thing, or Hue and the coaches win out and we take Rosen at 1 to guarantee we get our QB, or that meathead Dorsey is running the most sophisticated 4D chess misinformation game utilizing scouts, coaches, and personnel people as pawns to fool the scouting community. I'll hold my breath on the latter.
Say goodbye to Darnold for real my friends. He's the hero we deserved...I'll never stop believing that based on the tape review. It just really sucks...
I'm now going to watch Rosen again and try to 1. convince myself I like him more than Darnold and 2. Somehow the coaches desires win out...wish me luck..
Oh...P.S. I hate-love (more hate than anything) this sh** team with all my heart..
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12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Of course Johnson defended it. In hindsight though, I’m sure that, being honest, the Cowboys would have rather used that first overall pick (that’s what it was) on Cortez Kennedy or Junior Seau.
In hindsight of course he would have. Doesn’t change his goal or idea that going in he had to find a QB and was willing to expend resources to do so
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This is a great time to remind everyone that Jimmy Johnson basically did what equated to this in 1989. He used the 1st overall pick on Troy Aikman. What people forget or don't even know, is that he also used a pick in the supplemental draft to select Steve Walsh. By doing so, the Cowboys gave up their 1st round pick in 1990. If you search around some, you can find Johnson talking about how important it was to get that QB....and he was willing to burn up two 1st round picks to make sure he had at least 1. He understood, that if you didn't have a QB, then your first job was to find one...and not stop trying to find one until you were sure you had one. It was important in 1989, and it's even more important now.
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by your line of thinking then, anyone who pays someone to play football is now criminally negligent. Clearly it's a dangerous game, but people will watch it and those who participate at the highest level can make a lot of money. This isn't as hard as it's made out to be. Everyone can agree it's dangerous and there are risks. The NFL should just agree to part with some cash and set up a pension/care fund for dudes because chances are they will need it later on...separate from the fat paychecks. Then we can get back to watching big fast dudes smash each other and run fast.
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I prefer to see an NFL kick off. However, I do understand there is a stat somwhere that says something like injuries are 5 or 6 times more likely on that play than any other regular play. (that makes sense...lots of guys running full speed and colliding) So, my thoughts on this.
I understand that there are way fewer returns now since they have moved the ball up and most kicks sail deep into, or through the end zone. A kicking team still has the option to onside kick, squib kick, kick short on purpose daring the other team to try a return, etc. On the flip side....you may be down a score late in a game and instead of kneeling at the back of the end zone, you may opt to bring that out hoping for a great return. LEAVE THE OPTION to the teams how they want to handle kicking and returning kicks. The onside kick is a an exciting play, the return is an exciting play. the term "Kickoff" is specific to this sport and is a transcendant term...we have "kickoffs" for all sorts of things besides football.
2nd point. NFL football is enjoyable because we are watching modern day gladiators. We marvel at the size, speed, toughness, and strategy of the game...and by it's nature, as has been mentioned, is dangerous. Instead of having all these changes to rules etc....keep improving the helmets etc...that's great...but have every NFL contract contain a clause in it about how the sport is dangerous and perhaps remind the players that while they are playing a dangerous sport and many of them may suffer later in life, they can make a ton of money to take those risks. I don't play NFL football because I am short and slow and fat. But if I could run a 4.2 and throw a ball 70 yards etc...and someone offered me life changing money....there is a 99.9 percent chance I will accept those risks and play football. I would suppose 99 percdent of those playing now would continue to as well.
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I have two tickets and only planning to use one for myself.....interested?
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2 hours ago, Commonsense said:
It's nice to have an outside viewer chime in but what you said isn't any more or less believable than all the other scenarios being floated.
Draft capital will be doing all the talking on draft day. If the Bills are willing to part with their motherload they can get anywhere they want too.
I continue to maintain that NO ONE can get to 1, 2 or 3 now. The teams that are there are using the picks they have on QB. The jockeying will be for the 4th QB and the action will be around pick 9. Mayfield will be a Jet. Darnold to Browns. Rosen to Giants.
I think the Bills (make a mistake) and go up to 9 for Allen.
I think the Patriots go up to 14 for Rudolph.
Arizona gets left in the dust in round 1.
Chargers go Lamar Jackson....I had been thinking Saints, but the Chargers need rivers replacement. Jackson can sit....he will generate buzz for a team that needs to have buzz to sell some tickets to the new stadium.
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Maryland Bills Fan......Stan Humphries led the San Diego Chargers to a Super Bowl once. .....There is a list of OK QB's who were on a team that had ONE magical season where all the free agent signings worked out, where the drafts had been good for two or three years in a row, and the ball bounced the right way a few times, and they made the super bowl. There is an incredibly long list of guys like Matt Cassel who mustered all the skill and talent that was in them and barely led a team to the playoffs a few times...and were never close and were never going to be close. You are completely missing the point of the concept of the "franchise QB."
If you attempt to assemble a great roster, as you propose, without the "Franchise" QB in place, you MIGHT have a few years of really good drafts, you sign free agents that work out, and then MAYBE....if it all comes together ONCE, you might maybe win a super bowl. Teams without a great QB have gone down this road many times. It isn't impossible..it just isn't likely that ALL of those things come together all at the same time, and if it happens....it only happens ONCE if at all. Not likely to begin with...and it's a one shot thing if it happens. (once every 10-15 years)
When you have the "Franchise QB" in place, you may have a bad season due to injuries, or tough luck, etc...but EVERY YEAR, you are a threat to win and compete. With the QB in place your other players will perform better because the man with the ball is making better choices...He can throw a target open as oposed to having to rely on the target to become wide open before throwing. .more catches, better audibles, more TOP, more points...this translates to the D...less time on the field...playing with a lead more often...and when you have "holes" on the roster, they aren't as big a deal because as long as you have the QB, you are competing for TITLES.
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3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:
Funny thing. The Bills are drafting #12 this year and somehow there seems to be only a few teams (Browns, Jets & Broncos) who are pretty sure of drafting a QB ahead of us. Now we all expect that there will be some teams trading up to grab a QB, but if a QB is all that dang important and just makes everything butterflies and rainbows... why aren't all those teams drafting ahead of us grabbing a QB and moving directly on to the promise land? Doesn't a “franchise QB” get you there? Why aren't they drafting a QB? Or maybe they already have a “franchise” guy and still are in the bottom 12 of the league. How could that be? Let's look:
Browns (they have Kizer, OK, they are one of the ones getting a QB this year.
Giants they have Eli Manning. Sounds like he has been called a F.QB. #1 overall pick
Jets They have moved up to get a QB
Texans they have Watson Sounds like he has been called a F.QB. #12 pick 4 year $14M
Broncos They have a committee of 3 and are one of the ones getting a QB this year.
Colts they have Luck. Sounds like he has been called a F.QB. #1 overall pick
Bucks they have Wilson Sounds like he has been called a F.QB #1 overall pick
Bears they have Trubinski Sounds like he has been called a F.QB #2 overall pick
49'ers they have Garoppolo Sounds like he has been called a F.QB $27M/ year contract
Oakland they have Carr Sounds like he has been called a F.QB 5 year $125M
fish they have Tannehill Sounds like he has been called a F.QB 4 year $77M picked #8
If getting a “franchise QB” is the sure path to success, then why are eight of the teams who have “franchise guys” sitting before us in the draft?
Browns. Drafting a QB.
Giants. They have Eli Manning. He is old and been in decline. They may well draft a QB. They have the 2nd pick because Manning isn't very good now, and he can't carry that roster.
Jets. Have come to their senses and are going up to 3 for a QB.
Texans. ??? They didn't have Watson most of the year. He was a rookie. They lost a lot of games. .....you don't have a point here.
Broncos don't have a "committee of 3" They have ONE guy who is paid like a starter. Has been named the starter...and is going to be the starter. Undisputed. On a team who have coaches that have publicly been given THIS YEAR. They are pick high because LAST YEAR, they had Trevor Simien. He isn't very good. They signed Keenum hoping that he is an improvement....again....if your question is to ask why these teams are up high....the answer is going to keep coming back to 1. They have no QB, or 2. The record is bad because the QB they do have was hurt or wasn't on the team last year....but let's keep going....
COLTS....Luck didn't play....it should be obvious what this guy means to that team. He was out all last year and they got to play all year wtih Jacoby Brissett.....
Bucs. They have Winston. He had a bad year...played hurt...and even when healthy...not 100 percent certain he is the man, but they aren't ready to call him a bust yet...he has shown enough to continue. ....
Bears...Dude...they drafted Trubisky at 2 last year...he was a rookie...I'm not that impressed with him, but I will even admit his WR corps was bad. If he is just a guy, then this is what happens..you have a bad record and you draft high...
49ers. Couldn't win without Garropolo. couldn't lose with him. I am tottally not getting your point.
Oakland. Carr...is their guy. He had a bad year...he has had a good year. Bad year, bad record. new coach etc....
Fish. Tannehill...again...out all of last season....
Translation. EVERY SINGLE TEAM on your list got BAD QB PLAY last year...some had rookies, some had old dudes...some had their guy miss part of or all of the year. the lesson here is a simple one. BAD QB = HARD TO WIN. HARD TO COMPETE. GOOD QB = COMPETE EVERY YEAR.
6 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:As I said QB is the most important piece. You do have to build the team around then though. Brady doesn't do it alone. Some say get the QB and build around him and others believe build the team to protect the QB while he is developing.
I say get the QB when he is available because they don't grow on trees.
THIS is it. You get the QB when you can. You keep trying until you find him. Chances are you will find him at the top of a draft, but you may find him in another round, in free agency, undrafted. etc. The odds are much lower he will be found there, but the point is, until you have one, you need one, and if you need one, you do what you can to get one. Draft, trade up, whatever it takes.
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1 hour ago, #34fan said:
Wait, -What?
1. How could that ever be the point?.. Why bother picking at all if it doesn't count... Are all picks worth the same? -decidedly not. But who can consistently predict where a generational player will be taken? if you have a good staff that does it's homework, you can find kids that stand a good chance of improving your roster.
2. If we hit on LB, OG, and WR, then that's the beginning of one SOLID foundation... Right now, we look good at RB... If McCarron turns out to be Matt Cassel in that situation, I'm gonna to party like it's 1999!.. Why do you think Cassel keeps getting work? -The guy led the Patriots to an 11-5 season when Brady's ACL blew in 2008.. They're playoff-bound If not for an a-typically ambitious MIA squad.. If McCarron is capable of anything like that, SIGN. ME. UP.
You have had Matt Cassel as your QB for the past 17 years..but you don't realize it.
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3 hours ago, kdiggz said:
So....uh.....Allen rates a 92. Scout Inc must not give AF about completion pct at all. Wow.
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On 4/3/2018 at 1:24 PM, mjt328 said:
Three years. Seems like an exaggeration. But just for fun, let's go with it.
Let's assume we mortgage two full years worth of picks. We give up #12 and #22 this year, along with our 2019 1st Rounder and a few 2nds/3rds for good measure. We literally can't draft any top prospects until 2020. And this sets the franchise back a full 3 years with NO playoffs.
If that gives us a CHANCE to get the franchise QB we are looking for, I will take that deal without question. Because once those 3 years of sacrifice are over, we are setup with a QB who can keep us in championship contention for the next 10-12 years. Maybe even a Super Bowl.
Now consider the alternative. We stay put at #12 and all the strong QB prospects are gone. So we load up on the D-Line, Linebackers, Wide Receivers, etc. Don't forget we still need to use a Day 2 pick on a QB, like Mason Rudolph or Luke Faulk, who have a much higher chance of becoming nothing in the NFL.
Our roster is awesome for the next three years, but we can't get farther than the Wild Card/Division Round, because of mediocre QB play. Then in 2022, all of our fantastic draft picks are Free Agents. We only have so much cap space, so we can only re-sign half of those guys.
.... And we are back to the exact same place as April 2018.
This thread is basically what I joined this place for.....this exact same thread exists on KC boards everywhere for the last 2 decades. So many fans always arguing we had "holes to fill" ....You all probably recall that KC was in the playoffs all the damn time from 1990 to about 2006. All we ever did was fill holes. And our organization was actually good at that. Many good drafts and free agent finds to fill out rosters. A long long line of great RB's in that time. Some super offensive lines. Pro Bowl pass rushers, and defensive backs...and always making playoffs......and always losing in the playoffs. Lost to Marino twice. Manning twice. Elway, Roethlisberger twice, JIM KELLY, Luck, Brady......I am not that smart, but it doesn't seem like a coincidence that Elvis Grbac, and Chaz Bono....Damon Huard, Matt Cassel etc would find themselves on the losing team in playoff games vs THOSE GUYS. When you try and make the argument that you can win without a QB, it is worthwhile to look at the teams that pulled it off. The 2000 Ravens being an example...had great drafts for 3 years or so in a row (very hard to do and very unlikely) and added some great free agent pieces to that team (Shannon Sharpe, Rod Woodson) ...and got game manager play out of Dilfer....AND everything fell just right for ONE SEASON. If you want to use all your draft picks to fill holes and try and duplicate the 2000 ravens..knock yourselves out. Kansas City tried it for decades that way, and even when you are reasonably successful at roster building...you have NOTHING wihtout a QB...you have a lottery ticket hoping that ONE season you were the ultimate roster building badass and everything comes together ONE time for that trophy. GOOD LUCK!
19 hours ago, SoTier said:Minnesota. Back in the late 1990s the Vikes went to the playoffs with Brad Johnson (1996 & 1997), Randall Cunningham (1998), Jeff George (1999), Daunte Culpepper (2000). Then they came back in the last decade to make the playoffs 5 out of the last 10 years despite not having an entrenched franchise QB in his prime: Gus Frerotte (2008), Favre (2009), Ponder (2012), Bridgewater (2015), and Keenum (2017).
Furthermore, the Bills 17 years of playoff drought wasn't because they lacked a franchise QB. They failed to make the playoffs for so long primarily because of poor FO decisions, from selecting HCs to drafting players to decisions about which FAs to keep and which FAs to sign. The Bills had a franchise QB in Drew Bledsoe from 2002-2004, and failed to make the playoffs. The only year where you actually argue that better QBing would have put them in the playoffs was in 2014 when Marrone dumped Manuel and went with retirement list refugee Kyle Orton who played rather poorly toward the end of the season. Through most of the drought, the team didn't have enough talent on the sidelines or on the field to even be a playoff contender.
Expanding on my point. KC went 13-3 with Steve Bono, they switched out to Elvis Grbac and went 13-3 a couple seasons later. They switched out to Trent Green and went 13-3 again a couple more seasons later. That was all sandwiched in between a bunch of 11-5, 10-6, 12-4 ETC. You give me a roster with the best 52 NON QB in football and I can go 13-3 several times. You give me Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady...an in his prime Jim Kelly...and I will find 52 football players to fill out my roster and win championships.
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17 minutes ago, Buddo said:
In what sense do you mean 'dwarfing 1983'.
Is it just on numbers picked in the first round?
Or is it that they will all become successful NFL QBs?
Because I can't see any reason for the title of the OP.
FWIW, I don't have any particular arguments about the opinions of where, and to who the above QBs will go, I think it's a reasoned, and reasonable, analysis (or guess;) ), but I see no relationship to the '83 class being espoused.
Mostly to do with the 5 in top 15, and the possibility that there could be 7 taken in round one if someone gets desparate that misses out. I probably over did it a little with the title.
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1 hour ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:
Serious question.. how do you get tickets??
I live in Ft. Worth, Texas and they are doing a lottery down here for tickets....but that isn't how I got mine. I am a Chiefs season ticket holder and I won two ticket to the Chiefs draft party down here, and attend day 1 of the draft through them.
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The 2018 Draft is going to be the draft that surpasses the famed QB class of 1983. 5 QB in the top 15 picks. More and more front offices have come to the realization that QB is more important now than it's ever been. ***YES, you can win a super bowl with a mediocre game manager, but your window is ONE season in wich you hit on a ton of your draft picks, your FA signings pan out better than expected and everything falls your way for ONE SEASON***
With so many teams in need, combined with an anticipated GARBAGE QB class in 2019, we are looking at 6 or maybe 7 possibly going in round 1. It is crazy.
I continue to maintain the following as I have now for the past couple months:
1. Cleveland. Darnold. I simply refuse to blieve they are taking Jeff Allen at 1. The games I have seen suggest the kid is not accurate enough. They may see him as another Big Ben, but Ben completed 63% as a freshman, and 69% as a junior, his final season at Miami of O. HE was accurate to begin with and got better while he was there....this simply isn't Josh Allen....I would run away as fast as I could from that guy...I think Clevelands brain trust understands Darnold is the superior prospect despite Allens impressive workouts.
2. NY Giants. Rosen. ....So, the Bills, Patriots, Broncos, Jets, etc...are expected to offer a bounty for the 2nd pick to take the QB here. If the Giants had the 12th and 22nd picks.....and having Eli on his last legs....would they not want to offer that to two in order to get Rosen? I can't stress enough....2019 class is garbage. Eli is just about done. They can't possibly know where they would pick next year in a bad year for QBs...and by then they are really going to NEED one. The MOST VALUE they can attain from the no.2 pick is to use it themselves, ensuring their future with Rosen. Also....the Saquon Barkley talk is rediculous....if nothing else, this is a DEEP RB draft.....a very good one will be there later if that is what they think they need. Consider also, just having more picks doesn't mean you get day one contributors or stars.....Rosen is the pick here...not a trade out.
3. NY Jets. Mayfield. The GM and Coach need to WIN NOW with the new QB playing early and often. Their jobs depend on this.. Mayfield....can't stress it enough. improved every year. High completion pct. TONS AND TONS AND TONS of college reps. Ready to go right now...he is flamboyant..he is a name....they went to 3 for Mayfield.
4. Cleveland gets the first NON QB player of their choice. It won't be Barkley.
5. Denver. They want the guard from Notre Dame....might consider a trade down, but need a partner that won't take them off of that guard. is the 4th QB in this draft worth coming up to 5 for? Denver is NOT taking a QB here. The coaches have publicly been given THIS YEAR. The team kept the WR duo, and most of the d remains in tact. The line is awful. The guard starts today. They signed Keenan to starter money to START. they are trying to win while the window is open, and the coaching staff in place is NOT the group who will be around for their next high draft pick at QB. They aren't going to develop a guy if drafted at 5. This staff lives or dies with Keenum now.
6. Colts. Great place for a top 3 NON QB. I say Chubb is the pick.
7. Tampa. Saquon Barkley. They have some other really nice offensive pieces...this is the missing piece for this team.
8. Bears. Offense is set. They have holes to fill, and pass rusher is a huge need. They dont' trade out and take Marcus Davenport UTSA.
9. 49ers.....here is where it's at for the Bills, Pats, Chargers, Cardinals.....maybe even Steelers. SF will be willing to accumulate some picks here to move out. Who wants Allen? Rudolph? Jackson? The problem with this draft and these circumstances is that Buffalo has to get someone....(YES, they HAVE TO!) The problem is, no one at the top 3 is going to budge, and then you are going to be considering an expensive trade to 9 or so, for the FOURTH QB of this draft....and if the Bills don't make it, someone will. This is as good as it's going to get Bills fans.....you move up to 9 and it's for.....ALLEN.
The fun isn't over....because picks 10-14 then become teams that don't need QB...and Arizona, the Chargers and the Patriots ...and maybe Steelers will be looking at Rudolph. ....I had predicted in past posts this would be the Chargers moving up ahead of the Cards for Rudolph...but now I think the Pats go up to any of 10-14 to take Rudolph. Arizona PASSES on Jackson...and he goes tumbling down to the Saints. Who stand pat and take him.
That leaves a final tally of
Cleveland - Darnold
Giants - Rosen
Jets - Mayfield
Bills - Allen
Patriots - Rudolph
Saints - Jackson
....and now would be a great time to troll and remind you all, Mahomes (and Watson) were just sitting there at pick 10 last year. Ask yourself, would you trade Tre White and the 22nd Pick for Watson or Mahomes now? .....or you might ask it another way....would you trade Mahomes or Watson for the 12th and 24th picks in this draft? ....or another way to look at it...would you trade Mahomes or Watson for ANY of the QB in this draft?
last years Chiefs Trade
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
You guys are looking at Alex Smith using box score analysis. His stat lines are often very good. The box score doesn’t show the clean pockets he runs out of, the wide open receivers he misses or won’t throw to, drives he kills by being too safe. Even the playoff loss. They didn’t pass to much.
Also, moving on from Alex to Mahomes isn’t because they have “Zero Evidence”. It’s exactly the opposite. They saw enough to be comfortable with trading away a proven veteran under contract.
Last. YES. The expectations are that Mahomes will be as good or better than Smith and he will be.