Zerovoltz
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On 3/4/2018 at 9:39 PM, Zerovotlz said:
With the situation at this point still being so fluid, none of us really know who is going to end up where. We do know that as of today, the Bills are at 21/22, and that's all we really know. We don't know if they will be compelled to trade up, or if someone is willing to trade back, or if the guy they want, if they like one of them, will even be there. There are several teams in the "Franchise QB" market even as there are plenty of journeyman types out there, and Kirk Cousins who will be someones franchise QB soon enough.
What if the Bills simply can't get the guy they want went the dust settles? It might not even be due to lack of interest or lack of trying...just being in the position they are in could simply mean they lose by default this go round.
In 2019, should the Bills be in the market again, let's consider who else could be in that market. Let me speculate about 2018 first.
Cleveland is going to end up with a QB one way or another in this draft.
The Giants MIGHT take one, or trade out. I am going to call it now that they DO NOT take one in round 1 this year.
The Colts shouldn't be in the QB market now, but I can't 100% call that until Luck throws some passes. Reports are that he won't need another shoulder surgery, but he still hasn't thrown. For the sake of this post, I'll assume he is healthy. No QB now, No QB next year.
Denver- is a real wild card here. I don't think they are going to be able to sell Cousins on winning now in Denver, nor will they make the highest offer. I'd say they lose out on Cousins, but sign BRADFORD. (could be Keenum...half a dozen of one, 6 of the other ...whatever) They could still take one to develope, but that would be counter to trying to win now. The coaching staff is being given THIS YEAR, the roster window is basically THIS YEAR. They have holes to fill THIS YEAR. Elway may not have the green light to go QB after missing on Oswieler and Lynch...They may be inclined to wait until next year just because of where they are with their roster. Taking the QB now, with the coaching staff you are going to fire if they don't win now, is poor form. Lynch is still on the roster and while they may have determined he sucks....the situation almost demands he get one more shot before they tear down the whole thing...the roster, the staff..maybe even Elway himself. It seems like the timing is all off for Denver to be drafting one high. The one caveat being Josh Allen. If Denver can get him, I think that is who Elway loves and would be willing to go up and get him if they can make a deal to get to 1. I am going to say, in the end, Cleveland keeps the 1 and takes Josh Allen.
Jets- This is another team that will end up with a QB be it Cousins or a draft pick. I am going to say that I think the Vikings are the leader in the clubhouse for Cousins. Cousins can get paid there, have a stable front office and roster, and coaching staff all there. The jets roster and staff or in limbo. So for 2018....Allen goes 1. Giants go Barkley. Colts go Chubb. Cleveland could look to trade back at 4, but dont' and go Minka Fitzpatrick. Denver again is the trade up wildcard here. If Bufalo likes Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, they will need to be on the phone. I think the Jets will probabbly pay a price just to move up to 3,4 or 5 and go with Mayfield. If not, Arizona will be hot on the phone to get up here for one of those 3. i don't know who arizona likes out of that grouping. I do think the Jets love Mayfield...either they have to go up a few spots to get him, or they get word that Arizona is coming up for Rosen or Darnold and stay put. Either way, the Jets are going to be Baker Mayfields new team.
Assuming Arizona has traded up at this point, and the Jets have taken Mayfield....then it gets interesting for the trade up teams because that means Darnold, Jackson, and Rudolph are still on the board and the next several teams aren't in the QB market.
If this plays out as I have it here, you are looking at dark horse teams who might be interested in moving up to grab Darnold. Miami could suddenly find itself interested in going QB. Cincy could consider going QB as they will have lost MacCaron. the Saints could be interested in finding Drew Brees replacement, and the Chargers might be looking at Phillip Rivers successor. All but New Orleans is currently ahead of the Bills....but at this point, the Bills draft Ammo is more than sufficient to get up there...the problem is, do they like Darnold, Rudolph or Jackson?
Since this is about looking ahead to 2019, I will assume ONE of those teams trades up or stays put and lands Darnold. Then it becomes a two horse show. Does Buffalo like Rudolph or Jackson enough to move up if they feel they need to? Do they stay put and see if one of them makes it to them? Do they even want either of those two? for the sake of argument, lets say that they DO NOT go QB for whatever reason at this point.....you are looking at QB again in 2019....so what does that look like?
First lets examine who might be in the QB market.
Chargers if they don't get Rivers successor this year
Saints if they don't get Brees successor this year
Steelers if they think Ben is considering retiring
Bengals if they are tired of Dalton and don't get a replacement this year.
Oakland if Gruden decides Carr can't be redeemed.
Tampa if they sour on Winston
Tennesee if they sour on Mariotta.
Miami if Tannehill can't stay healthy and they didn't draft a round 1 guy this year.
Denver if the whole thing comes crashing down.
All of these teams aren't certain to be in the QB market....a lot of things would have to play out to have any of them shopping for one. Let's go with Cincy being finished with Andy Dalton, being the actual main threat to draft one high. The Chargers, Saints and probalby Oakland will have a good record so will be drafting late even if they are looking QB. Miami won't be in the market if Tannehill is healthy and puts up Top 15 numbers...that's a reasonable expectation.
Tennessee might be growing a bit tired of Mariotta, but I don't think they give up on him yet. Same with Tampa and Winston...and Winston has at least had some big stats here and there.
that means really there might be 2-3 teams really in the "draft a franchise QB" mode to compete with the Bills.
Next years Class does not look strong as of now...it could change....but Drew Lock as the top of the class next year would make me consider what's out there in 2018 pretty hard. I am a Missouri Fan, and I love Drew Lock as my Tigers QB....I don't think I'd want him leading my NFL team.
So, summing it up.....Even though there would seem to be fewer NFL teams with a need in the 2019 draft for a QB, and that the Bills might be better positioned in that draft to get one, the class seems pretty weak at least this far out. You'd be kicking that can another year down the road for likely an even less appealing option than this year.
In conclusion. Now is the time to make it happen. Good luck.
....called it.
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Not sure how anyone wants to define "bridge" but I posted about this here a few days ago. Using as a basis all QB's who have started in a superbowl in the last 20 years....these would generally be considered good, great, successful QB's by just about any metric.....when you split those guys up into two groups....those who started from day1 and those who sat for a while (half a season or longer) ....you find that the QB rating in each of those groups first 16 NFL starts is THE SAME. .....IF there were some advantage to be gained by sitting and learning it should show up for the QB's who sat and learned by getting on the field and being more ready, and therefore having better stats.....but it simply DOES NOT play out that way at all. TALENT is the determining factor on the QB being worth a damn or not...and getting those first 16 games under your belt should happen sooner, not later....as there is ZERO data suggesting sitting is a benefit. Lot's of people like to make genreal statements....sit and learn...watch how things are done, study film. and so he won't get "thrwon to the wolves and have his confidence ruined. THE DATA SUGGESTS that is all bull mess. Get on the field...in game action. That is where the learning happens.
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3 minutes ago, VirginiaMike said:
I agree - the Browns will take Barkley. He's the best player in the draft and will make the offense better immediately. With a #4 pick as well, the Browns still can take one of the top QBs. I hope they take Allen because I don't want the Bills tempted to take that guy.
They just signed Carlos Hyde.....did you read that? Please explain why the Browns would sign a starting RB in free agency then spend the first overall pick at RB?
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19 minutes ago, Starr Almighty said:
I agree and Rivers learned nothing sitting behind Brees too
Favre is on record saying he didn't like Aaron Rodgers and didn't teach him anything. And again....WHAT is it they are learning? If they are learning something, it isn't showing up when they get on the field...you'd expect to see a difference in the QB ratings for the guys who sat to be measurably higher in their first 16 games wouldn't you?
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2 minutes ago, psuscott16 said:
The problem with the argument is there is no way to track, with data, the mental or physical impact on a talented QB that was thrown into the fire. Derrick Carr would be one that jumps to mind.
This kind of thing is very difficult to extrapolate data out of. Just using Mahomes as an example....he was 20 years old last year....maybe sitting helped him mature? Maybe working on his footwork or taking snaps in practive helped? Hard to say. You would be inclined to believe it was beneficial to sit. But, if you think sitting helps, someone like Rodgers or that grouping of SB starters who sat at first...that includes Brady fwiw.....you'd expect that their numbers over the first 16 games of their careers would be better than a rookie who was thrown right in...that first 16 games....the numbers say it simply isn't the case.
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5 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:
Right, Aaron Rodgers learned nothing sitting behind Favre.
His QB rating during his first 16 games starting in the NFL suggest all that sitting didn't matter. Among SB QBs the past 20 years, his first 16 games were the same as the ones who started right away.
3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:If Mahomes plays well whats the data say about that? Who to say he wouldnt have looked like Kizer? Granted Kizer didnt have the players around him KC does. Some guys are better prepared to play learning the position and how its done at the NFL then winging it on the Fly. The KC Chief would not have gone as far or been as successful with Mahomes playing qb.
If Mahomes plays well, what data can you point to, that shows it was BECAUSE he sat and not because he is talented?
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10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
They should play when they are ready. You dont want to force the rookie on the feild. When they are the best Qb on the team they play. Mccarron adds a bit of a competion element and also time to let the rookie adjust. I expect whoever is drafted if Buffalo trades up will surpass Mccarron some point during the rookie season. When? Idk could be OTAs could be TC could be mid season. Heck maybe Mccarron comes out of nowhere and kills it like Jon Kitna when Palmer was a rookie.
If Mccarron is playing, your rookie isn't benefitting. Data suggests he needs to get his first 16 games under his belt...data says sitting doesn't accelerate development.
9 minutes ago, Mango said:Best man wins in camp. But it has to be consistently. So if the rook comes in and isn't better 80% of the time, he sits I think. Just to avoid the huge clunkers, and digging the team/himself into a hole. I have faith that McCarron is a more than serviceable place holder, so the situation is different than at other points.
Not many rookies will see the field if the "best man" is on the field. Rookie needs to develope to become the best man....data suggests they dont' develope on the bench.
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A while back this was a major topic of discussion about Mahomes and when he would be "ready". I decided to try and see if there was any data to support sitting or starting etc. Here is what I found.
I used QB's who started in a super bowl in the last 20 years as a basis to check this. The idea was to check a large sample of "successful NFL QBs". Here was what I found.
Of the QBs to have started in at least one SB the past 20 years, the QB rating was practically the same over their first 16 games starting. So the group who sat, rated THE SAME as the group that started from day 1 as rookies over their first 16 games.
In the case of TALENTED NFL QB's who played in a superbowl, the TALENT is what mattered, not sitting and learning. IF sitting was a factor, there should be a measurable advantage to those QB's in their first 16 games who sat, from having more film study, mentoring, etc. THERE IS NOT. Playing QB in the NFL is something you must actually get on a field and do in order to learn.
The "Bridge QB" as a concept is dumb. Having a veteran backup in case your rookie is INJURED so the rest of the team can develope and compete is great...having some guy be a "placeholder" who delays your rookie from taking the field is less than optimal. You are wasting the most critical portion, the most painful portion of that developement and therefore also wasting:
1. The time you have your QB on his cheap rookie deal.
2. The useful year(s) of the other players on your roster.
Draft your man, get him on the field. See if he improves over the course of 16 games. That's it.
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3 hours ago, Luka said:
The crazy part of the situation in KC is Mahommes hasn't proven jack ****.
I can understand why you would say this....but, you'll get it about 3 or 4 weeks into the season.
3 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:But he is on a rookie deal and since he was drafted in the first is a franchise guy!
I have watched a parade of mediocre QB's come through here since I was old enough to pay attention back in 86. Mahomes is NOT like any of them...he is different. he is better, and when you watch it, it is obvious. Clearly, I am biased, and you shouldn't take my word for it...but google things like Baldy Breakdowns Pat Mahomes, or just read all the comments from folks who would know.....or connect the dots....Cheifs have Alex Smith, he is good, his stat sheet is stellar. They traded up to draft Mahomes. They work with Mahomes all year. They trade Alex Smith and will start Mahomes. They didn't have to trade Smith..he was under contract another season....They know what they have.
2 hours ago, Luka said:I've always advocated putting together the best possible team. I bet Alex Smith would've liked to have Watkins last year, seems they were always devoid of talent at the position. I'm just wary of annointing any QB the Chosen One until they you know, play a couple NFL games first.
Alex Smith would not get much out of Watkins. Smith doesn't like throwing deep unless the guy has completely beaten coverage by a mile. Watkins, or any WR is wasted with Smith (SEE Jeremy Maclin) for evidence. And if you aren't convinced....watch the Redskins this year. Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson are going to be fantasy superstars...Josh Doctsons career trajectory will now go the wrong way...and they just signed Paul Richardson today....he will be a disappointment....more becasue of the QB (Smith) than Richardsons talents.
As far as KC spending big on Watkins.....in my opinion, KC's offense was already good to go...need to spend on D...I guess we are tyring to be greatest show on natural grass. I am skeptical of a guy who has injury history, etc like alot of folks here.
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19 minutes ago, cd1 said:
"Rookie deals" don't last forever!
If not careful or you won't be able to "afford" you franchise guy once it is time to pay the piper.
Watkins is three years. Hitchens three years. Mahomes is under contract three more years. Plus looking like labor dispute coming in2020.
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I am as surprised as anyone else how we (KC) are throwing around money.
Brett Beach said a month ago we would be adding another fast deep threat at WR. The money is steep, but I can’t emphasize enough what they believe ( and I believe) they have in Mahomes. Bombs will be dropping all over the field. Watkins is only 24. They are betting he is about to reach that potential. I hope he does.
my main point is though, if you get a QB in the draft who in fact is a franchise guy, this is the kind of spending you can do (I’m not arguing it’s wise spending, we’ll see) lots of room to build out the roster when QB isn’t consuming 10-30% of your cap space
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On 3/4/2018 at 9:39 PM, Zerovotlz said:
With the situation at this point still being so fluid, none of us really know who is going to end up where. We do know that as of today, the Bills are at 21/22, and that's all we really know. We don't know if they will be compelled to trade up, or if someone is willing to trade back, or if the guy they want, if they like one of them, will even be there. There are several teams in the "Franchise QB" market even as there are plenty of journeyman types out there, and Kirk Cousins who will be someones franchise QB soon enough.
What if the Bills simply can't get the guy they want went the dust settles? It might not even be due to lack of interest or lack of trying...just being in the position they are in could simply mean they lose by default this go round.
In 2019, should the Bills be in the market again, let's consider who else could be in that market. Let me speculate about 2018 first.
Cleveland is going to end up with a QB one way or another in this draft.
The Giants MIGHT take one, or trade out. I am going to call it now that they DO NOT take one in round 1 this year.
The Colts shouldn't be in the QB market now, but I can't 100% call that until Luck throws some passes. Reports are that he won't need another shoulder surgery, but he still hasn't thrown. For the sake of this post, I'll assume he is healthy. No QB now, No QB next year.
Denver- is a real wild card here. I don't think they are going to be able to sell Cousins on winning now in Denver, nor will they make the highest offer. I'd say they lose out on Cousins, but sign BRADFORD. (could be Keenum...half a dozen of one, 6 of the other ...whatever) They could still take one to develope, but that would be counter to trying to win now. The coaching staff is being given THIS YEAR, the roster window is basically THIS YEAR. They have holes to fill THIS YEAR. Elway may not have the green light to go QB after missing on Oswieler and Lynch...They may be inclined to wait until next year just because of where they are with their roster. Taking the QB now, with the coaching staff you are going to fire if they don't win now, is poor form. Lynch is still on the roster and while they may have determined he sucks....the situation almost demands he get one more shot before they tear down the whole thing...the roster, the staff..maybe even Elway himself. It seems like the timing is all off for Denver to be drafting one high. The one caveat being Josh Allen. If Denver can get him, I think that is who Elway loves and would be willing to go up and get him if they can make a deal to get to 1. I am going to say, in the end, Cleveland keeps the 1 and takes Josh Allen.
Jets- This is another team that will end up with a QB be it Cousins or a draft pick. I am going to say that I think the Vikings are the leader in the clubhouse for Cousins. Cousins can get paid there, have a stable front office and roster, and coaching staff all there. The jets roster and staff or in limbo. So for 2018....Allen goes 1. Giants go Barkley. Colts go Chubb. Cleveland could look to trade back at 4, but dont' and go Minka Fitzpatrick. Denver again is the trade up wildcard here. If Bufalo likes Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, they will need to be on the phone. I think the Jets will possibly pay a price just to move up to 3,4 or 5 and go with Mayfield. If not, Arizona will be hot on the phone to get up here for one of those 3. i don't know who arizona likes out of that grouping. I do think the Jets love Mayfield...either they have to go up a few spots to get him, or they get word that Arizona is coming up for Rosen or Darnold and stay put. Either way, the Jets are going to be Baker Mayfields new team.
Assuming Arizona has traded up at this point, and the Jets have taken Mayfield....then it gets interesting for the trade up teams because that means Darnold, Jackson, and Rudolph are still on the board and the next several teams aren't in the QB market.
If this plays out as I have it here, you are looking at dark horse teams who might be interested in moving up to grab Darnold. Miami could suddenly find itself interested in going QB. Cincy could consider going QB as they will have lost MacCaron. the Saints could be interested in finding Drew Brees replacement, and the Chargers might be looking at Phillip Rivers successor. All but New Orleans is currently ahead of the Bills....but at this point, the Bills draft Ammo is more than sufficient to get up there...the problem is, do they like Darnold, Rudolph or Jackson?
Since this is about looking ahead to 2019, I will assume ONE of those teams trades up or stays put and lands Darnold. Then it becomes a two horse show. Does Buffalo like Rudolph or Jackson enough to move up if they feel they need to? Do they stay put and see if one of them makes it to them? Do they even want either of those two? for the sake of argument, lets say that they DO NOT go QB for whatever reason at this point.....you are looking at QB again in 2019....so what does that look like?
First lets examine who might be in the QB market.
Chargers if they don't get Rivers successor this year
Saints if they don't get Brees successor this year
Steelers if they think Ben is considering retiring
Bengals if they are tired of Dalton and don't get a replacement this year.
Oakland if Gruden decides Carr can't be redeemed.
Tampa if they sour on Winston
Tennesee if they sour on Mariotta.
Miami if Tannehill can't stay healthy and they didn't draft a round 1 guy this year.
Denver if the whole thing comes crashing down.
All of these teams aren't certain to be in the QB market....a lot of things would have to play out to have any of them shopping for one. Let's go with Cincy being finished with Andy Dalton, being the actual main threat to draft one high. The Chargers, Saints and probalby Oakland will have a good record so will be drafting late even if they are looking QB. Miami won't be in the market if Tannehill is healthy and puts up Top 15 numbers...that's a reasonable expectation.
Tennessee might be growing a bit tired of Mariotta, but I don't think they give up on him yet. Same with Tampa and Winston...and Winston has at least had some big stats here and there.
that means really there might be 2-3 teams really in the "draft a franchise QB" mode to compete with the Bills.
Next years Class does not look strong as of now...it could change....but Drew Lock as the top of the class next year would make me consider what's out there in 2018 pretty hard. I am a Missouri Fan, and I love Drew Lock as my Tigers QB....I don't think I'd want him leading my NFL team.
So, summing it up.....Even though there would seem to be fewer NFL teams with a need in the 2019 draft for a QB, and that the Bills might be better positioned in that draft to get one, the class seems pretty weak at least this far out. You'd be kicking that can another year down the road for likely an even less appealing option than this year.
In conclusion. Now is the time to make it happen. Good luck.
.....going to strain my forearm patting myself on the back.
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This takes the Broncos out of this QB market. Here is why. Keenum is being brought in to keep the window they think they have open. (I'm not sure they really have any open window left, but whatever) Keenum is going to cost WAY TOO MUCH to be a bridge...this is to be the starter for the next 2-3 years while they still have a good WR pairing, still have Von Miller, still have Harris...they aren't completely bereft of talent. Paxton Lynch is now officially a bust, but he's still on his rookie deal, still a guy they drafted in round 1 and paid dearly for to move up...and Trevor Simien....Simien isn't very good, but he's experienced and also cheap. They aren't going QB this year....they will stay put at 5 and get one of the top 3 Non QB players in this draft....again in line with trying to win while the window is open. AND....the coaching staff are all basically working THIS SEASON to prove themselves....this is not a situation where they have a staff in place, ready to start the franchise rebuild with a new QB....this staff won't be coaching any QB they take in the draft now...they are all in with Keenum and winning to save their jobs. Elway isn't going to ask for their input on wich QB fits their system etc.
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Clearly I am a Chiefs fan....but even I can't wait for the draft to see how this all plays out. I've always looked at the trade last year as a great thing for KC to get Mahomes, and I am glad you got White last year...and I hope that the extra ammo you got from the KC deal last year helps you all get "the man" this year. Buffalo has been a GREAT recent trade partner for my team. I am rooting for this to go well for you all. .....also the NFL=crack. This offseason has been entertaining as hell.
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4 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:
Let's take the 33% odds for example and let's say you're playing scratch off tickets. Would you rather have 1 ticket at a 33% chance or 5 tickets with a 33% chance?
(Although the odds of finding a franchise QB is far slimmer than drafting other positions and our chances of finding starters would be greater than 33% along with 5x more chances to find good players.)
Your analogy assumes a pro bowl linebacker is equal to a pro bowl QB. that simply isn’t the case.
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14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Draft order:
1. Cleveland Browns
2. New York Giants
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Cleveland Browns from Houston Texans
5. Denver Broncos
6. New York JetsWhich are the 4 team that need a "franchise QB?
I totally don't follow the logic that 4 of those 6 teams will draft a QB, and 2 teams will want to draft something else so the 4 teams should trade with the 2 teams to move up, but doubtless that's just me bad.
I seriously doubt that any team feels the group of guys between 20-40 are pretty much of the same quality to them.
I should just stay away from my computer for a few days. THREE. Need a franchise Qb. Not 4 . Sorry. Man I am off kilter.
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2 hours ago, CraigD said:
Agree with the last poster. You need to research better only round 1 picks have the 5th year option that can be apllied
Ugh. You are right. I botched this. the advantage of the round 2 picks and later is they are not subject to the stipulation when signing an extension, that are not equal to or better than the average of the 3rd-25th salary of players at the same position, but I would contend that Giants and Colts MIGHT both be inlcined to move back just a few picks, still get a nice haul and still get a blue chip prospect.....purely speculation on my part of course.
3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:Zero teams moved out of the top 5 last year. Chicago moved from 3 to 2 with SF dropping from 2 to 3; that was it.
Tennessee had the Rams' pick from a 2016 trade. Only one team moved from outside the top 10 into it, and only 2 teams moved from outside the top 24 into it.
The 2017 first round featured 6 total trades--3 that involved top 12 picks, and 3 that involved picks 25-31.
All of that is to say that your numbers are off.
Now, is it hard to move into the top 5? No, not hard at all. It's costly, but finding a dance partner isn't tough. There's plenty of reason to believe that any of NYG, Indy, and Cleveland (4) would be willing to move out if given the right ransom.
I can't dispute any of this....I would simply contend that the situation at the top involves 4 teams drafting in the first 6 picks that all have a need for a "franchise" QB. and two teams who can add some serious draft capital having only to move a few slots and still likely get the NON Qb they were going to get anyhow. ....the last 6 QB drafted in round 1 were all trade ups.
And to Hapless Bills Fan....when I was talking about Blue chips in this draft, I was using an arbitrary number. i don't propose to know how many of those type prospects teams think there are. simply pointing out if you think the group of guys between pick 20-40 for example are of the same quality, trading into round 2. Again, dependant on a teams board and philosphy etc.
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Not many people realized it at the time, but when the NFL went to a slotted payscale for draft choices, and that system allowed for a 5th year team option on all rookie contracts for players drafted after round 1, the value of draft choices weren't the same anymore. Teams have slowly but surely began to realize this and it's reflected in how more and more teams are doing business on draft day. Let me break down what changed, and then how that applies to the Bills situation this year.
The slotting system has made it MUCH MORE APPEALING to take a chance on a QB. The mistake used to cost your franchise millions and millions of dollars, setting everything back years, costing coaches and GMs their jobs, scaring off fans from buying tickets...it was an incredibly risky proposition all the way around. Now, if you swing and miss, you have a player who isn't killing your cap or your willingness to turn around and try again to find his replacement. Given that more and more teams have come around to the reality that if you don't have a QB, you are facing a steep uphill battle to compete, and given that there are plenty of teams who need to find that guy, the market for QB's in the draft is as strong or stronger now, than it has ever been.
At the same time you have these forces at work, the picks in round 1, that teams are sitting with, once the "sure things" have been drafted, are not worth nearly what they once were. Here is why. Lets say you have pick 18. Your scouts/gm etc have decided that the draft has 10-12 really good, blue chip, can't miss, start day one, plug and play guys in it. After pick 12, those guys are off the board and you pick at 18. You are drafting a guy who may have a 1st round grade, but he might be every bit as good or the same as the guy who will go at 33. (first pick of round 2) The big difference being, the guy picked at 33 will have a contract that includes the magical "5th year option". An extra year of club control, that is almost certainly going to be at a bargain rate if the player is any good. The market is now set up in such a way that the 33rd pick is considered at least equal to pick 18, 14, 22...whatever the case may be...and in many teams thinking, pick 33 is the better pick to have. Again...I can take a guy who grades well, who may or may not pan out at 18, or I can take a guy with the same grade, same expectation of success, but get him a little cheaper to start with, and again, the magical extra year of club control.
Now lets apply these dynamics to this years upcoming draft.
At the top, you have the Browns, who should be taking a QB at 1. (I just don't see how they don't at this point) At 2, the Giants are in great shape here to basically trade down a few spots. If Allen is on the board especially, the Broncos will move up to 2. The Giants will move back to 5. they will get a 1st in 2019, and you can be sure they will get the Broncos 2nd rounder this year. 40th Overall (8th pick in round 2) that carries that contract value I just mentioned. ....I'll get back to the Giants in a moment. With two QB off the board, the Jets will be hot on the phone to move up to 3. This could very well be Baker Mayfield. The Jets will of course be trading a 2109 1st, but also that valuable early 2nd rounder. 37th Overall. The Browns now sitting at 4 take Saqon Barkley. Everyone in Cleveland is happy for a day. Then the Giants pick at 5. Having gotten a nice haul out of Denver to move down three spots, they still get a choice of Chubb, Minkah, or that Ellis guard from ND. They still get the blue chipper. The colts, Also, are still in line for Chubb, or Minkah etc....one of the blue chips.
Lets examine these circumstances cloesly.....If the Bills want to move up to 2 or 3, is their ammo of 21 and 22, and a 2019 1 (and more) really more attractive than say the Giants taking 3 steps back, a 2019 first, and an early 2nd.....with the guarantee you end up with one of the few can't miss prospects in this draft? Same with the Colts..step back a few spots, get a 2019 1st, and an early 2nd this year....and still get one of the few cant miss guys now....is that better or worse than 21, 22, and 2019 1st? That is the reality the Bills are facing. Ok...now continuing....
Pick 7, Tampa. This may well be the last spot to grab a "Can't miss" blue chip guy...either Ellis, or if the Giants took him already, then whoever the last man standing is..Chubb, Minkah. There are still 2 teams.....and certainly 1 for sure, in the QB market. ARIZONA, sitting at 15. for the sake of argument, the Bucs take the last big time blue chip, and now we are on to 8. Chicago. This will be the first spot where the can't miss guys are gone, and you also have a team that either likes Calvin Ridley here or they think they can get him or some other WR a little later. They have holes to fill and need more picks. Right here the question becomes, WHO are the QB still on the board? Is he "the man" according to your board? and Is Arizona going up to get him?
Sitting at 21 and 22.....isn't quite the AMMO that it would have been 10 years ago when you look at it like this. You are also looking at a near impossible climb to 2 or 3 and after that, you are realistically looking at takign the FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD even if you can get up to 7, or 8. That is the reality of the situation. And as if this wasn't enough to consider....Arizona can stand pat, or move up and get that 4th QB if the Bills do stay put.....and lurking in front of the Bills are.........
12. Cincinnati Bengals They can walk away from Dalton after this year when his contract no longer is a cap killer. MaCaron is gone. I don't think they will go QB, but....
15. Arizona Cardinals They stay in place and grab one or trade up and grab one..but here they are in dire need of a QB.
16. Baltimore Ravens They can walk on Flacco after this year and that awful contract. Ozzie Newsome is retiring after this season, so I would suspect he won't go QB, and leave that problem up to the next guy....but can't rule it out. Newsome might see it as a chance to extend his legacy by drafting the next guy.
17. Los Angeles Chargers Phillip Rivers isn't getting younger...and they could draft a guy to sit and learn, so a project isn't a concern here....Could totally see Mason Rudolph.Given all of this, as a big picture, it seems UNLIKELY the Bills will emerge from this draft with their present/future QB when it's said and done.
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....Uh.....IF the idea that Lamar Jacksons running plays were by design......and if he has been running a Bobby Petrino "Complex NFL offense"......then doesn't that just make his crap completion pct even more glaringly bad? And wouldn't also stand to reason that if you have a QB who can run like Lamar can....and who isn't the most adept passer, you'd probably WOULD design run plays for him...lots of them.
BUST. Running backs don't play QB.......because they can't complete more than 60% of their passes too. BUST.
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Just something to consider......the last 6 QB's drafted in the first round were all selected by teams who traded up to get them. Given the number of teams needing a franchise QB, and given that next years class looks awful.....draft day is going to be a frenzy of trades. Cousins signing with the Vikings will hurt the Bills.
Cleveland...(it is Cleveland) should take a QB at 1. Cleveland can deal the Bills another blow if that QB is NOT Allen because Denver will then call the Giants about moving up from 5 to 2 to take him. If the QB Cleveland opted for was Rosen or Darnold, then the Jets will look to move up to 3 for Mayfield. Cleveland will then be delighted at 4 to take Barkly, Fitzpatrick, Chubb...whoever they want...the Giants at 5 could have tons of options..take Chubb, take Fitzpatrick...they could go Ellis...or trade out again...or if the QB still left is the one they covet...Darnold in this case..they might do that. Colts at 6 will still have something nice to take, then you are literally looking at Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson. With Arizona needing someone, and possibly Miami, New Orleans, Baltimore, Cincy....lurking ....none of them are that likely, but I'm thinking the top 4 are gone by pick 7. and all via trade up except Cleveland. .....The Bills are going to have to be very aggressive...there are more teams that want one of these guys than there are guys to take.
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I'm going to buy that this is a smokescreen to keep Rudolph clean to pick 21 (or within trade up range) I predicted in this forum a while back that Lamar Jackson would fall out of round 1, and I continue to believe that. I could see a team that already has a running/passing QB and offense taking him in round 2 as a backup and long term developement project. Carolina would be my prediction on his destination. I simply don't think any front office is going to trust the guy and is less than stellar completion pct to be the undisputed QB of the team the moment he is drafted. Recency bias is working against the kid too....Bridgewater and his injury being a light weight narrow guy from the same schoool....I don't like Allen for his crummy accuracy either, but at least some FO is going to point at that guy and say...look at his arm! Look at his size!
I think there is going to be a frenzy at the top with trades and the top 4 will be gone by pick 6. Allen, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold. ...After that, someone that missed out up at the top is going to be lurking on Rudolph.
Here is what I think at this time. Cleveland take Barkley at 1. Giants trade down with Denver. Denver takes Allen at 2. Colts trade down to 6. Jets take Mayfield at 3. Cleveland takes Rosen despite his overtures of not wanting to be there at 4. Giants can't believe their luck....Darnold is here still. They take him....they have time to work with him while Eli rides off into the sunset. Colts are happy as they go Chubb at 6. Then it's no mans land all the way to 21. Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson are on the board and Arizona is sitting there at 15. Tampa is on the clock at 7. This is what I believe Buffalo is going to be looking at on Draft Day.....I can totally see a scenario where the Bills have to contemplate moving up to SEVEN, to take the 5th QB off the board if they want Rudolph. Once Rudolph comes off the board, then it's all downhill for Jackson....if the Bills are still sitting there at 21, with no QB, they aren't taking Jackson either because he may well be there in round 2, or you go with the second tier...Lauletta etc. If I was the Bills and this plays out, it would make me sick.
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9 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:
Go back and watch Nathan Peterman's Gruden QB camp and you will floored. He also has a lack of arm strength. I think knowledge of the game can only take you so far if your can't throw an out route.
And I agree, I wish we could take Rosen's brain and arm talent, Allen's arm strength and size, and Jackson's athletic ability and make a quarterback. Maybe Mayfield's moxie and Darnold's toughness as well. I wouldn't want anything from Rudolph. Very ordinary.
.....I'm trolling, but ....you could have had that combo at 10 last year.....(Pat Mahomes)
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3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:
Comparisons to Mike Vick run deep
Well....if he is Vick...that's worthwhile. If he's Geno Smith...not so much. I don't think he's accurate enough to win consistantly in the NFL....I would not draft him in round 1. (I have the same concern for Allen)
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1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:
In my mind this questin needs to be asked.
The QBs that will be available at 21......where do we think they will be drafted in NEXT year's draft.......
I think Lamar Jackson is a top QB prospect in next years draft
Why wait for next year what we can get at 21 this year and have the extra pick?
This is a great way to look at it. .....but it depends also on what you think of Jackson...he WOULD be the best in the class...I'm still very unsure about what I think of him....but if your front office grades him as EJ Manual...even if he is the best of the class....that isn't a class you want any part of....if he's Mike Vick, Cam Newton or something good or better than that..you'd be all over it...NOW while you can get him. I can't wait for this draft....NFL=CRACK. ....and still hoping this works out for you guys...Would love to see the trade be a "win-win" for everyone. They are the best kind of deals.
Should Beane be Fired Because of Today's Colts/Jets Trade?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
No....This was a measured move by the Colts to get a bunch of extra selections AND stay in the top 6. They will get a blue chip NON QB at 6. There is someone up there that they like and wanted to stick around for....that is the ONLY REASON to make this deal today....they simply were not going to consider anyone outside the top 10 as a trading partner....again that is the ONLY reason to go ahead do this now, not 40 days from now.