Zerovoltz
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Posts posted by Zerovoltz
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1 hour ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:
First off, I won't hold being a Chief fan against ya. Always nice when civil fans of other teams want to discuss the thing we have in common...football.
Second, congrats (and you're welcome) on Mahomes. I think he's going to be solid.
Third, if you can...what's your opinion on how Ragland looked for you guys this year? I really liked him, but he just didn't fit the defense here.
My Predictions are listed above.
That trade is viewed as "good" so far. Ragland of course was still coming of the injury when he got here (to KC) but got better as season progressed. Had some moments where he flashed, and we could see the potential. We anticipate that he will take a step forward in 2018. It would be a dissapointment if the Ragland we saw this year, is the same one all of next year. We can see why he was a high draft pick as he is noticably faster then what we (KC) had on the field with him....2018 makes or breaks the trade. Liked what we saw..need to see more.
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One stop shop for everyone's one the record QB projections. (Yes, I am a CHIEFS fan, but we got our QB last year, and no one in KC wants to speculate on this fun stuff)
Josh Allen - BUST. This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate. He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate. Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB. It's not 1977 anymore. You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS. That's what Allen will be.
Darnold - HIT. Doesn't have the arm that Mahomes has, but I've seen enough film of him to see he does have an understanding of using his eyes and head to move safeties and identify the target downfiled and "throw him open". I do think he will need some seasoning and will look like garbage his first 16 or so games starting in the NFL.
Rosen - MISS. I think the guy has talent, but I put alot into the talk he's not in it for the love of the game, and he is injury prone. Not loving the game and being injury prone means you aren't going all out all the time. He is Jay Cutler. He will alienate too many people but will make some really good plays when he is healthy and trying....I don't see him as a winner. He will frustrate the coaches and fans wherever he ends up...too talented to give up on...too aloof and injured to ever really get you where you need to go.
Mayfield - HIT. Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs. His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win. The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys. Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED. He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter. Reps help. He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs. makes plays. So what he is 6'1. In this class, he is my no.1 guy.
Lamar Jackson - BUST. While he did progress each year, he's still not a very accurate thrower. He doesn't "win" in the pocket. He's a special COLLEGE player...what a gifted athlete!......but that's it...to me...great athlete..I do not see great NFL QB. This is going to be the guy that starts tumbling down the draft board.
My thoughts on some other notables:
Mason Rudolph. - Will be better than Josh Allen. I think you put him behind a good line and give him some deep targets....like old school raiders bombs away attack and you have something.
Luke Falk. Career backup. Accurate thrower. Not a strong NFL arm. benefited from system he played in. Best to play on team that emphasizes short passing game.
I have not seen enough film on any others to make any kind of evaluation...I've heard some like the kid from Virginia...I haven't seen him...can't say.
***Just my worthless KC two cents here*** If I were the Bills, If I could go up for Mayfield or Darnold, I would totally go all in. If I sat at 21 and Rosen fell to me (he won't) I'd do it. Lamar Jackson might fall that far...I'd pass or trade out. If I have missed out on Mayfiled or Darnold, I make sure I don't miss Rudolph, even if I have to use 22 to do it. .....Also.....If I can make the numbers work, and I am sure I can't get Darnold or Mayfield on drat day, I DO, make the push for Cousins. He's proven he can put up numbers with less than optimal talent around him. that matters and it's worth paying for.
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6 hours ago, Schmuggs said:
This move makes Washington a contender next year and beyond.
No.....it doesn't. It means the Redskins fanbase is about to be bewildered by having a QB who somehow has a good stat sheet, and you can't quite put your finger on the problem for a while. The more observant fans eventually figure out that Smith's stats are sparkling because he is super SAFE with the football and simply will not throw a 50/50 ball to anyone at anytime. All the 3 yard completions and 3 yard runs on 3rd and 8 look like postive plays in a box score, and in your passer rating, but in reality, these are drive killers, momentum killers. You start to see Smith runs from ghosts and the ghosts get scarier as the game gets into more critical stages. The man refuses to let you down by taking a bad sack or a making an awful turnover in the clutch.....and by deliberatly making this effort, he dooms you to a slow death, unwilling to take the slightest chance to make the play you need when you need it. Best of luck to them. Their fan base will divide into the "Alex Smith is great, look at his STATS" camp, and "Alex has flaws that kill us, and don't show up on a stat sheet" camp. He is a curse. Too good to bench, not good enough to get you over the hump. Paid to elevate the roster around him, but needs others around to elevate him. Washington will be 6-10 to 8-8 or so.
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Something to consider going forward -
If you are a team that doesn't have the "franchise" QB....and getting one of them costs a very lopsided value against your cap vs. the other 52 on your roster, it will not be long now at all, in this QB market, that some of the shrewder teams in the "have not" QB category, will revert to old school ground and pound. Most teams place a premium on pass rushers and DB who have cover skills. A team with no QB could counter the trend with big road graders on the O-line. Get a couple or RB or even three horses. Get some WR who will block, then run at these defenses with undersized defenders and bunches of DB's. The era of the great middle linebackers is long gone and such a team could potentially roll todays defenses into the ground if they built such a team....you get yourself a cheap QB who can run and throw playaction passes, and you could compete without participating in the absurd QB market. You only pay that QB the lopsided contract if he is in fact Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and you can throw 52 other guys on the field with him that he elevates to being very good every year no matter who they are.
In such a market, you could get the best blocking WR's best blocking TE's, revive the FB position and get the best one of those, and your QB would be so much less money because you wouldn't need him to be the focus.
Won't surprise me to see two or three teams who don't have a stud try and take advantage of this skewed market in such a way.
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58 minutes ago, Doc said:
I agree with you that getting Fuller was the better trade by far. Washington was dumb.
As for two teams saying no thanks to the QB's/seeing no day 1 starters, if Mahomes were in this draft, he also wouldn't be considered a day 1 starter and those 2 teams would still be making those trades, so I'm not sure what you're getting at here.
And do you think that Mahomes starting buys Reid another year if the Chefs don't make the playoffs (and they likely won't)?
Your point about the QB's and Mahomes is a valid one I hadn't fully considered before. I suppose I should have said that Cleveland doesn't see any of them as day 1 starters, and that Washington didn't see any of them, or at least any they could expect to get at 13 or trade up for, to be the long term answer. With Denver in hot pursuit now of Cousins, they are bowing out at 5....I suppose other than Trubisky, who did start day 1, you could say the same for Mahomes, Watson etc...I'm making more of it I guess than there is.
Ried will absolutely get another year...he's under contract for something like 5 more years. There will be a good number of pissed off fans if we miss the playoffs...Alex wasn't universally hated here....very large number who would rather KNOW you can go 10-6 again instead of trying to develope the QB.
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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Let me ask our Chiefs visitor - is there an acceptance with the fanbase that while Mahomes is huge upside there is a risk you end up with worse QB play in 2018 and a 7-9 type record? Is the position that "okay that could happen but look we think Mahomes could end up being a regular Superbowl QB and if we have to suffer a non playoff year in 2018 while he learns how to face NFL defenses week in week out then it is worth the cost?"
Or do you all presume he will immediately outplay Alex Smith in 2018?
The fanbase here is probalby about 70/30 in favor of Mahomes. There are some skeptics who do not think we will be competative in 2018, but that is the minority. Most, myself included, believe that Mahomes is ready, he has some weapons to utilize and the team now has a little flexibility having begun to remedy the cap issue we had and adding Fuller. Even those of us who are optimisitc that we can win now, realize that first time starting QB in the NFL often struggle as opposed to winning right out of the gate. Manning was awful his first 16 games, Elway was awful his first 16 games...Dan Marino is the exception, not the rule. We get that. It is PROBABLE that 2018 will be disappointing in the short term. I have no numbers to point to that I could back this up with, but having watched the parage of mediocre OK QB's come through here (KC) since 1986 (when I was old enough to pay attention) I can tell you that Mahomes is going to be special. He isn't Jay Cutler, he isn't Kyle Boller. I wish I could throw up some stats or something to make my point, but all I can say is that I can SEE it. But to answer the question....50/50, the fanbase will tolerate one year of being less than competive if it means Mahomes becomes that 15 year guy who has us as a legitamate threat every season to win the SB. We have been begging for this for so long...that's why the trade up last year was so exciting to us....many of us finally think the Chiefs are TRYING to win the super bowl instead of trying to win 10 games and keep the seats and 80 dollar per car parking lot full. So yes, in that case it would be well worth the cost. Wouldn't you trade a bad year in exchange for 15 seasons of knowing you'll always have a chance becasue you start each season with a legit QB?
Also....I've seen some posts saying KC has a decent/good O'line. ....eh...not really. Our LG position has been a revolving door of nobodies. RT is solid. LT Eric Fisher, the 1/1 of the 2013 Draft (a bad draft year overall) finally....FINALY had a season where I would grade him as ADEQUATE. ....and he's under contract for 4 more years..hope he takes another step....anyhow, the line is smallish and finesse. They are ok at pass blocking and decent at pulling and trapping...but AWFUL trying to get a push in short yardage.
Lastly, saw some other posts here about cleveland offering a 2 and some people thinking that it was a better offer than what we got...NO...not even close. Getting a CB, who would be a 1st round pick if drafted this year, under contract for less than 1 million per for 2 seasons is BETTER THAN a 1st round pick. You already know he won't bust, you already have him signed to a cheap contract. and you already have seen him succeed and be ascending in the NFL. That is WAY better than an unknown quantity in round 1 that will cost more.
...and one final note...If Denver gets cousins....that will be two teams...Washington at 13 and Denver at 5, basically looking at this QB class and saying...No thanks. If Cleveland was deep in trying to get Smith, that means they see NONE of these QB's as a day one starter....that's fine, but just more proof this class is a crap shoot with a bunch of guys who each have some sort of flaw.
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
Ok, which stat do you prefer? Here are his rankings from this season:
Passers rating: 1st
YPA: 2nd
YPG: 6th
ANY/A: 3rd
TD%: 6th
INT%: 2nd
DVOA: 10th
QB was not the problem on your team. If you expect Mahomes to step in and do better than that you're setting yourself up for major disappointment. If he is even a middle of the pack QB that would be a pleasant surprise, and I doubt your defense will improve enough to make up for any drop in QB production. Looking like a down year for the Chiefs to me. Mahomes is a long-term prospect so hopefully you guys will see him develop this year, that's the best you could realistically hope for.
Mr. Happy Days -
I am well aware of the stats you have posted. I am not here to tell you Alex Smith is hot garbage...he isn't. He is pretty good. He will protect a football like it's his first born child and take very good care of it. You aren't going to lose a game because Alex Smith makes a bad turnover at a bad time. ....Now, that said, if you look at Smiths QBR, Passer rating or whatever measurable metrics you like...they all go down from the first quarter, on. His measurables in the red zone are not as stellar as his overall metrics...BUT....that aside...where Alex Smith kills you, are things that stats don't tell you...things you can't read in a box score. His pocket presence is AWFUL. Smith has very very happy feet and will abandon good NFL pockets, take his eyes off of targets breaking open, run and occasionly makes some decent yardage, but most often he takes something and makes it nothing.....especially on third down. If you watch it live, you'd say, wow, look at Smith extend the play! Look at Smith go off schedule here and improvise! He's not. When he stays in a pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, goes over his targets, sets up, and throws..Alex Smith delivers a beautiful NFL pass....unfortunately, he doesn't do this often enough, and the higher the stakes are, the safer he is with the ball....It works well most of the time....but when it counts most, Smith and his sparkling stat sheet don't show up. ....And look, the thing is, He does NOT elevate the roster around him..THEY elevate him.
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This is a good breakdown of what we see, what we saw all preseason and what the players and other observers say they see in practice....he's ready and he's going to be awesome.
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7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
The Chiefs did fleece the Redskins on this trade. Of course if Mahomes becomes the next big arm with poor mechanics QB to bust in the NFL, this trade won't matter. You could do a lot worse than Alex Smith. He had the highest passer rating in the league. I wouldn't expect him to repeat that but I definitely don't expect Mahomes to even come close.
NFL Passer rating is a rediculously outmoded and outdated stat. in 2000, Brian Greise was no.1 and Brett Favre was something like 21st. If you look at the formula for NFL passer rating it is HEAVILY skewed toward completion percentage and interceptions. Smith completes a TON of very high percentage short passes....and he will not throw a ball with a reciever that has even a defender nearby. He is VERY VERY safe....passer rating rewards Smith for completing a three yard pass on 3rd and 8, and it doens't penelize him on 3rd and 8 when he jitters out of a clean pocket for a 2 yard gain...he didn't take a sack, he didn't throw a pick, he didn't have an incomplete pass...NFL passer rating rewards that. So, yes, Smith was the "highest rated NFL passer" it's 100% true...and he earned it.
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1 minute ago, MJS said:
Let's wait and see if Mahomes is actually good or not. Everyone talks him up like he is already a Franchise QB, but he has only played in one meaningless game so far. Time will tell.
We did get a great rookie in Tre White from the trade down. If the Bills use KC's first rounder to move up and get a QB, I hope Mahomes and whoever we take turn out to be great QB's. It would be a rare instance where both franchises look great for making a trade. Win-win. Both get their QB.
I'm totally rooting for you guys to get your QB. I was actually at the wide right super bowl rooting for the Bills.
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1 minute ago, joesixpack said:
Bigger question: wtf is a chefs fan doing here?
i smell a jeffismagic trollololololol moment
I joined to keep track of Bills fans attitude toward the trade and Mahomes over time.....Thanks for having me. I also joined a Browns group for the same reasons (Dorsey there, they passed on every one last draft) This group here is a WAY WAY more inteligent and thoughtful group than the guys on the Cleveland boards, and franly, the KC boards I am on...lots of frustrating Madden players who don't understand the cap or real football....I hope you'll see fit to let me stick around....even as I will poke you for Mahomes here and there.
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1 hour ago, dezertbill said:
This shocked me as well. I think Fuller is more value than the 3rd.
KC robbed Washington.
Today is a great day...and I want to thank the Bills organization and by extension the fans for helping to bring it all about with that trade last season.
From a KC perspective....We have a very ready Mahomes, and we get out from under Smith, get cap space, a thrid round pick AND...this is the important part....Fuller, a corner who would absolutely go in the first round of this years draft, under his PALTRY rookie contract for two more years. That is BETTER than actually getting a first round pick....you know he isn't a bust already and he's pennies on the dollar cheap for a high end corner that would cost MILLIONS on the open market. ....I am going to use a very tasteless term to describe what happend today....but KC plunger raped the Redskins.
It would seem at least the Redskins have looked at this QB class and said "no thanks" The Browns made the phone call to KC...that doesn't mean they weren't going to draft a guy, but it tells you that whoever they are going to take, they don't think will start day 1. That isn't usually the case when you invest the 1/1 in a QB.
The Bills are going to go through the Kirk Cousins bidding war, and trying to convert the 21st and 22nd overall pics, OR going with Tyrod and Peterman, OR signing someone like Bradford when all you had to do was use the 10th overall pick you had last year and avoid all this uncertainty. You had Mahomes and Watson right there, under the tree with shiny wrapping paper and nice big bow...and you punted.
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I don't think you will be seeing Luck traded, for all the reasons mentioned already....I think everyone will be surprised when Alex Smith ends up with the Colts. If you are the Colts and you are waiting to see if Luck can or can't come back, are you really going to use that 3rd overall draft pick on a franchise QB? Are you going run Jacoby Brissett back out there and try and sell tickets? (yes McDaniels knows him) ....they could trade for Smith and his one year of control. That buys them time to evaluate Luck, or for Luck to get another surgery etc. If Luck is finished, you could then sign Smith to an extension....it would be his team (something smith wants) and you are ok at QB for 4-5 years and can spend all of that time finding the next one. Or, if Luck comes back and he's ready to go, you thank Smith for his time and trouble, he becomes a free agent and probably finds himself very much in demand still. Indy could then trade out of 3 this year, load up on picks and go forward.
As a Chiefs fan, It is entertaining reading all the different view points about what to do at QB for the Bills....lots of opinions. My opinion is that you were in position at 10 last year and missed on Mahomes. (and maybe Watson)
In my biased opinion, you could have taken Mahomes (or maybe Watson) at 10 last year instead of trading out. Now you'll have to expend serious draft capital to move up to 3 or 4 to do essentially the same thing a year later......and you have to hope that whoever you take, is someone they think more highly of than they thought of Mahomes or Watson last year.
I'm not saying it won't work out etc...but seems like quite a bit more involved and risky trying to move up now as opposed to staying in place last season.
I honestly hope you get something good and I'll be rooting for you and watching intently on draft day.
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Just a Chiefs fan throwing in my 2cents. I beleive Alex Smith will be starting for the Colts in 2018. They don't know yet if Luck is going to recover, play, be good, be ready...etc...You can't commit to drafting a QB at 3 if you already have Luck, but you can't come back and sell tickets if you have to keep waiting to find out and you throw Jacoby Brissett out there again. (although McDaniels at least has worked with him before) ....you could trade for Smith. You get him and his one year under contract at 20 million. He plays, you compete, and that 20 million buys you a year to find out A) If Luck can or can't come back, and B) if Smith is your mid to long term starter, and you sign him to an extension. Just my thoughts.
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No, we could keep Alex...he's under contract for 18.....we wouldn't trade him because everyone has seen enough to see what we have.....a QB, who when drafted had an incredible skill set and a brain....who needed some coaching on his crappy footwork...and who has taken well to that coaching and considered by many to be on the path to superstardom. That is why we wouldn't make that deal. Denver would gladly part with Paxton Lynch for that. I'd bet the Bears would send Trubisky to Cleveland right now for just the 4.
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If the Browns offered us (the Cheifs) the 1 and the 4 for Pat Mahomes today, the Chiefs would not make that deal.
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There are some opinions here that are going to look really bad by week 4 next year.
2 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:I’d say 5th round. That’s because that’s where he should have been drafted.
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.....THANK YOU BUFFALO (from a Chiefs fan) I've seen enough...and heard enough from people who should know it when they see it.
1 minute ago, Klaista2k said:If true it's sickening that we passed on him.
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Just some help for those of you that haven't quite grasped why Alex Smith is available. 1. KC is in cap hell this offseason. 2. KC has a low dollar, ready to go replacement (who the fans also want) and that they invested resources in to grab at #10 last year, as you all well know. These are the 2 obvious reasons..the third reason is that Alex Smith understands, and is very good at being safe with a football. NFL passer ratings heavily reward you for throwing a two yard completion into the flat on 3rd and 8 instead of being intercepted trying to make the throw that gets you a first down. Nothing wrong with protecting the football. The problem is that Smith is not a good Red Zone QB, and he is not a good 4th quarter QB...and if you watch Smith play, he abondons way too many good pockets often making nothing out of something (yes, you read that right) There aren't stats for how Smith is "too safe". He is a very good player...but certainly not great....he DOES NOT elevate the talent on your roster....you must put really good folks around him in order for his safe and efficient play to be of value. There you go.
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Smith as a seat warmer is expensive. Smith as your three or 4 year starter makes more sense considering the money involved and the compensation (won't be a first.)
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KC Fan here....I don't think the Bills are a very likely destination for Smith UNLESS you plan to have him be the man and sign him to an extension. It also isn't going to take a first (whoever suggested the Bills give us(KC) back our #1 for him, I love you.) .....Smith is good enough to be some teams long term starter for a some more years....he isn't going to want to be a bridge and since he has one year left, he has leverage to leave if he doesn't get a good vibe about his long term prospects. Smiths market is going to depend on several factors....1st, the QB market will start to fall into place once Cousins lands. At that point it will be about what teams think Smith is more than a bridge. Washington, Jacksonville, Arizona, maybe Denver, and the Colts if Luck's status is uncertain. Teams like Cleveland, the Jets...I think poeple just assume Smith fits those places because they suck and Smith is pretty good....For teams needing just a bridge to the young guy they draft....Smith isn't cost effective...you can get a McCown or a Glennon or a ....Tyrod..... to be that guy a lot cheaper. Market is heavy with those. Of course draft day strategy comes into this...Cleveland, Jets...probalby drafting someone and doing the veteran bridge...again, not what you need Smith for. Smiths market in a trade varies widely depending on how many bidders there are and if they are wanting Smith Long term..he is worth a lot more as a long term answer than as a bridge....we'll see.
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10 hours ago, starrymessenger said:
Not to quibble but the reason Alex bails is because he sees the SAM (James Harrison) with a clear path and breaking for him so he tries to keep his distance while surveying his options to the weak side. I agree that ideally you would have wanted him to hang in there long enuf to see Hill streaking free to his left for a sure TD. So yeah a bit like Tyrod there. IMO he would have probably had time to see Hill and deliver the ball before Harrison decapitated him, but just barely. A bloodthirsty Harrison is about to catch up to him on the sidelines just as the tape runs out.
you need to watch this again...the SAM isn't even close as Tyreek Hill is passing by a flat footed safety...at this point Alex should be setting and stepping into one as he has a ton of space and time....Smith seeing the SAM who is 7 or 8 yards away, leaves a HUGE pocket and that's it. Ruined a play that should have gone for a long TD. I don't have video of every time he does this...you'd have to watch all the games and be looking for it..but it happens alot...and you CAN NOT see this on a stat sheet.
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2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:
Look harder; that first video is a good example of prematurely abandoning the pocket before his #1 receiver even made his break...the guy who did break and instantly became 2 steps open.
Smith never passed it to him, though, b/c he was too busy escaping the pocket.
Brady stands tall in there, resists the heat, and throws for a completion.
I like Alex Smith and would consider him an upgrade over Tyrod, but he certainly has his limitations, which is all the OP is trying to say I think.
You have summed it up right here. Smith is only a good QB, because he does this too often. His pocket presence is garbage. Brady "wins" this play 19/20 times. Smith loses this play at least 9 out of 10.
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Just now, Teddy KGB said:
He won the nfl title game the following week then lost 34-31 in the sb.
If kelce didnt get smoked and Reid went Reid again idk if this talk is happening.
I get your point, but I’m not buying all of it.
Teddy, I think you have your years mixed up....After beating the Saints, the niners lost he following week to the Giants in a close game. The NEXT SEASON Smith got a concussion and lost his job to Kaepernick about week 8 or so...the Kaepernick led 49ers lost to the Ravens in the Super bowl. Smith was traded to KC that offseason for 2 2nd round draft picks.
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Predict outcomes for the 2018 QB class
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I have not. I am a member of a couple of facebook groups for my Chiefs posting activities....I should probalby get on a board so that I can point back at some of what I post more easily. Should I be on that board?