Zerovoltz
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Posts posted by Zerovoltz
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I think many of you don't understand the gravity of the Jets trade up to 3. The 2 isn't available. The Giants are keeping it and taking a QB. Eli is just about toast. The 2019 QB draft class is TRASH. There is no way to know where the Giants will pick next year etc. The Giants are NOT one draft pick away from winning anything. The best thing they can do with the pick they have is get the NEXT franchise QB. They are hard to find. You don't pass them when you can get them and you need one. The 2 is not available. 1. Cleveland Darnold. 2. Giants Rosen. 3 Jets Mayfield. Bills trade up to 9 with San Francisco to fend off the Arizona Cardinals and your next franchise QB in Buffalo will in fact be Josh Allen.
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Here is my take on this.
Cleveland will take a QB at 1. They aren't taking Barkley. They signed Hyde to start, they have a good change of pace back, The FO is not inclined to value RB. I am assuming for the moment that QB they will take is Darnold. For this scenario that doesn't matter too much.
The Giants are NOT taking Barkley. Here is why. They know the Browns are going QB. The Giants could trade RIGHT NOW with the Jets, and flop spots. They know the Jets are up there for QB. If the Giants wanted Barkley, they could have HIM and some more Jets draft picks just to flop.....They have surely been called by the Jets, Bills, and whoever else to inquire about the pick. They aren't trading it because they will draft ROSEN. Eli is almost done, the 2019 QB class is room temperature lobster bisque flavored yogurt. They can simply draft the next franchise QB right now....it's the hardest thing to find, there is no promise that at any other time will they have such an easy shot at one....they are taking Rosen....getting the next franchise QB is absolutely the very best thing they could possibly do with this pick.
The Jets move up to 3 because the like at least 3 of the QB, but I believe they have come up here for Mayfield. that GM and Coach DO NOT HAVE TIME to wait on developing Allen. Mayfield took a billion reps in college, he improved every year. He has a high completion pct. He loves the spotlight. He's a charachter. He is everything NY wants in an athlete....they went up for Mayfield. .....and IF the Giants decide to see what they can get for the pick....it would be really really easy to bilk the Jets out of something like the Niners got from the Bears last year....but I don't think the pick is in play....Only way is if the Giants could be sure Rosen would be there at 3.
Once the QB are gone 1-2-3....Allen will still be high on somoenes board...maybe even the Bills (probably) Arizona will be lurking, calling to go up....the Niners, sitting at pick 9 is going to where the action is....that will be the first team who look at the guys on the board at 9 and feel like moving down to 12 or 15 is worthwhile. Bills move up to 9....take the 4th QB of the draft, Josh Allen.
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1. Cleveland. DARNOLD. Seems to be gathering steams as no.1 overall.
2. NY Giants. ROSEN. This is a deep RB draft class. You can get a good one later. They have a short shelf life. The Giants need a successor to Eli, the 2019 draft class at QB is hot garbage. So bad it won't have a 1st round prospect in it. They won't have a better chance than they will with this pick to get a bonafide blue chip QB to pass the torch to.
3. NY Jets. MAYFIELD. The GM and Coach DO NOT HAVE TIME to wait on Allen. They need a guy who plays day 1. That is Mayfield. He had a billion reps in college. He got better every year, he is a name, and he is a charachter. This who they went up for.
4. Cleveland. KOLTON MILLER. AGain, they signed Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson is on the roster (one of their better players) ...PS. Hyde was a Buckeye..bonus points for the browns fans..the GM comes from a long line of front offices that DO NOT draft RB high. Including when he was the one making the picks with KC. Joe Thomas just Retired. They NEED his replacement, and here he is.
5. Denver. ELLIS. This is another regime with a coaching staff that has THIS YEAR to do something. They signed Keenum to starter money to win now while they think their window is still open. (debatable) ...This isn't the coaching staff to turn a new QB over to when they are fighting to keep their jobs....they need day 1 starters...and their O line is trash..perfect match.
6. Colts. CHUBB. The Colts could consider a trade down, but Chubb is on the board...he is who they will stay at 6 for..no trade down again.
7. Bucs. BARKLEY. The Bucs get a present gifted to them here....the impact playmaker they need in the backfield to go with Winston and Evans.
8. Bears. DAVENPORT. Team needs a premium pass rusher....they spent FA dollars on offense.
9. BILLS. Trade up to 9 with San Francisco. The Niners don't see anything here they MUST have and field calls from Arizona and the Bills about this pick. The Bills give up the 12th, keep the 22nd a 2nd and 3rd to do this. ....and they select.....ALLEN. Knowing Arizona was in on him here, the Bills make the move here and get what they hope is their man. (twobillsdrive.com servers will blow smoke)
The rest doesn't matter.
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Couple of thoughts here.....first of all....watching this board IN GENERAL go from being excited about the FA and Draft eligible QB's, and then trading up to 12 to get more ammo for an attempt at a further move up the board....to watching as this board IN GENERAL, fell real concern about the Jets trading up to 3 (legit concern) ......to analyzing the press conference where the GM is clearly trying to temper expectations....to now, where many (not all) of you are now trying to talk yourself into thinking AJ is about to be the next great QB who just needed a shot, ala Brady. I guess you can always hope.
I very much sympathize with your plight....went through 3 decades of similar bull mess in KC.....by choice. ....always signing some other teams castoff because he had "developed" already with them...he was ready to go now...we had not wasted our time and draft picks developing them, we let the 49ers do that for us
(Montana, Bono, Grbac, Smith) ....anyhow, I used to participate in these very same types of conversations. I used to be the guy who thought you could win with just some guy at QB, and build a strong roster around him....hell KC has been the 1 seed in the AFC doing just this very thing. I used to make a passionate argument that Tyler Thigpen would lead the Chiefs to glory! I lost a 50 dollar bet back in 2012 or so when I was sure Thigpen would be the starting QB the next time the Chiefs won a playoff game. After I lost that bet (what a stupid bet!) I began to re evaluate my thoughts about all this. Keep in mind too, that KC has a LONG history of having some of the NFL's best RB over this same period of time. Okoye, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamal Charles and now Kareem Hunt.....and here is a list of the QB who beat us every playoffs. Marino twice, JIM KELLY twice, Manning twice, Luck, Brady, Elway, Harbaugh, Mariotta, Flacco, and Stan Humphries. That list has 6 hall of famers in it, for a total of 9 playoff wins against us. Flacco isn't going to the hall of fame, but he beat us on his way to a super bowl win. .....I watched every one of those games....and in ALL OF THEM, the Chiefs had the better, deeper roster than every damn team we lost to. We were lacking at ONE SPOT. I watched Matt Cassel be propped up by the fans, the media, the staff and front office. Todd Haley basically was fired by Scott Pioli because Haley had seen enough of Matt Cassel and Pioli was never going to admit Cassel was someone we needed to move on from. Anyhow....I know what this is like...to be a fan of a team that for whatever reason is stuck at QB....This is what it looks like...the fans don't want to admit the obvious, they don't want to start a season with no hope...after all what is a new season, with training camp and a 0-0 record if not Hope? As Red told Andy...hope is a dangerous thing.....when you don't have a QB. That's exactly the quote too..it's just hard to hear that last part in the movie.
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The Browns aren't drafting Barkley...not at 1 AND not at 4 if he is there....they signed Carlos Hyde to big deal to start. They have a good change of pace back on the roster. The GM is on record putting RB at the bottom of the list of things you need to win...and he has been in charge of, or been a part of drafts for decades where the philosphy was to wait on RB. If the Browns stay at 4 (and I think they will) it is because they will pick a PREMIUM position player. Chubb, or Fitzpatrick...not RB in a RB rich class that they own a ton of picks in. Same reason why they aren't trading out of 4...they have draft capital and they now intend to cash in. The GIANTS drafting Barkley makes more sense. They don't have a bonofide starter on the roster, and their FO isn't opposed to RB high.....and given that it makes some sense and they have a need I still think they are also going QB. Eli is amost toast, they are in position to get his replacement. 2019 is a bad QB draft class and they have no clue where they would even be selecting. This again, is a deep RB draft..they can wait. QB is scarce and it will be even more scarce after this draft. QB 1-2-3. The Bills must hope that the 4th QB in this draft is someone they like.
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34 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:
I hope this is the case. I do like Rosen, Darnold & Mayfield; the only one I would sell the farm for would be Rosen...
Keeping Whaley through last year's draft may have been a terrible idea in hindsight, as that cost us Watson or Mahomes. This move pushed us into going for the QB this year and I just do not see us trading to take the top guy...
Would you trade the 12th Pick, Tredaveon White and a 3rd for Mahomes or Watson? .....Of course you would.
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1 hour ago, kota said:
Who knows AJ or Nate could be the real deal. I would be fine with going with either one as the starter this year.
AJ looks legit. Go see his highlights.
I got some Matt Cassel "Highlights" you can look at too.....he looks GREAT in his "highlights" ....and he's on the open market! If you just look at his "highlights" you'll wonder how this guy was ever allowed to escape New England!
53 minutes ago, Clyde Smith said:We just acquired a young pissed off, hungry, ready to make a name for himself, ready to shift his career into the next gear type player. I am pretty confident that A.j. Is going to hit the field and show his ass. I’m ok with skipping over Qb’s in the draft and just adding key pieces instead.
A.J. = every midling NFL QB that ever graced the roster of an NFL team that missed or didn't try to draft a franchise QB.
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1 minute ago, Looper said:
I disagree - Keenum is on a 2-year deal and taking Allen/Mayfield would give them enough time to get ready for year 3.
If you are drafting a QB that takes TWO OR THREE years, then you shouldn't be drafting that QB. .....and uh Denver has one of those 2 to 3 years to develop guys on the roster already....do a google search for Paxton Lynch scouting reports and read all about 2-3 years....
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1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:
Some other things to discern from this. Certainly if the Jets dealt with the Colts, they would have called the Giants. Suggests the Giants have identified their choice at 2...whoever that is. ....and they must not think that player will be around at 6. This suggests QB more than anything. Doesn't rule out Barkley. Just says they like someone at 2.
colts GM on record saying they took other calls...didn't want to exit top 10. That doesn't mean they spoke to bills, but it could mean they spoke to Bills, and/or Arizona, and/or Miami maybe...and others not suspected of wanting to go up.
Further suggests that the Jets have either A). at least 3 QBs they rank the same or B) the one they rank higher is the one they must think will be there. That continues to lead me to think Mayfield is their guy as I do not beleive Cleveland or the Giants are in on him. in the case of the Jets....they must be good with Darnold and rosen being gone before 3.
One other item to consider. Any stupid notion the Brown would take Barkley at 1 should be dead now....The Jets didn't go to 3 to take a NON QB. Cleveland would be making a mistake trying to figure out what will happen at 2 and 3 before taking a QB at 4. They simply have no reason at all to pass the QB they want at 1. They are still going to get a very valuable piece at 4. QB 1. Another way to look at it. in picks 2 and 3, you KNOW at least one of those is a QB. (Jets) the 2nd MIGHT be also. If you want Barkley (I do not think they will take Barkley at 4) at 4, he has a 50/50 chance of being there. There is NOT a 50/50 chance at the QB first on your board being there at 4. Browns QB at 1. Bet the house on it.
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Nothing new to add, and it's been said before....but I laugh when people say...I wouldn't take QB X at 5 but if he fell to 24 I would....or better example...he's not worth taking at 7 but I'd do it at pick 15. ??? If you have identified a franchise QB, then the pick at which you take him means NOTHING....the point is that you take him, or get him. there is no such thing as a franchise QB who isn't worthy of any pick in a draft.
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Some other things to discern from this. Certainly if the Jets dealt with the Colts, they would have called the Giants. Suggests the Giants have identified their choice at 2...whoever that is. ....and they must not think that player will be around at 6. This suggests QB more than anything. Doesn't rule out Barkley. Just says they like someone at 2.
colts GM on record saying they took other calls...didn't want to exit top 10. That doesn't mean they spoke to bills, but it could mean they spoke to Bills, and/or Arizona, and/or Miami maybe...and others not suspected of wanting to go up.
Further suggests that the Jets have either A). at least 3 QBs they rank the same or B) the one they rank higher is the one they must think will be there. That continues to lead me to think Mayfield is their guy as I do not beleive Cleveland or the Giants are in on him. in the case of the Jets....they must be good with Darnold and rosen being gone before 3.
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Lots and lots of folks here with some kneejerk reactions to todays trade are getting some things severely wrong as they try and make sense of what is going on.
1. Cleveland. They are taking a QB. I don't claim to know which one, but it will be a QB. The barkley talk at 1 AND/OR 4 is rediculous. They signed Carlos Hyde to a big deal this past week to be the feature back. They have Duke Johnson, one of the few consistant performers on their roster as the 3rd down guy. Doresy has a LONG LONG history of being with front offices that don't take RB high, or when has made the choices himself, has NOT taken RB high. He drafted Kareem Hunt in round 3 last year....his entire careers work and experience indicate that he is clearly in the "you can find a RB later" school of thought. It's a deep RB draft. They aren't taking Barkley at 1, AND they aren't taking him at 4.
2. NY Giants. Everything has a price...and the Giants can demand a ransom here, you would think...but can they really? Barkley is a more obvious fit here, they have a GM who last year spent a 1st round pick on Christian McCaffery. They have a need at RB...but they have plenty of holes to fill, deep RB draft. Consider the 2019 QB class SUCKS. (at least it seems that way now...granted we are a year out, but it's not good) They were all geared up to move on from Eli at the end of last season. They still understand that Eli is just about done as it is even if they aren't moving on just yet. They are in a great position to take his successor. Again, looking forward a year....when the QB crop is lacking and you don't know where you are drafting, they may recognize the position they are in as the best chance to get their next QB. They may well be prepared to have a 2019 in which there is no Eli, no Beckham, and they are starting over....could get a jump on that with the QB now. Let's examine the trade market for this pick. 1QB off the board at 1. Let's assume that is either Darnold or Allen. The Jet's are at 3, willing to move up to 2 if they must to get Mayfield (speculation on my part, but I believe that is their man.) Cleveland with 4, not moving up. Denver at 5. They aren't moving up. They are staying put. So, no trade partner there. 6. Colts. no reason to move up to six after moving out of 3....they are also staying in place at 6 for a top NON QB. Tampa at 7. Not moving on from Winston (nor should they, he's shown enough to continue as the unquestioned starter) 8. Chicago. They have Trubisky. They aren't in the trade up market, and if they were to move up it isn't for QB. No reason to go to 2. 9. 49ers. Garroppolo. 10. Raiders. Carr. 11. Miami. They are sticking with Tannehill...see below. 12. Buffalo. NEED QB. 13. Redskins. Alex Smith. 14. Packers. Rodgers. 15 Arizona. Signed Bradford..but could use drafted QB. 16. Baltimore. Not trading up for QB this year..have Flacco. The trade market is stay in place or move to 12 and picks with Buffalo. Arizona has no ammo.
3. Jets. They will take a QB here....I am almost sure it's Mayfield. They are in great shape if this is their man...the Giants would be the desination for Rosen if they take one. If the Giants can figure out the Jets target, and it isn't the QB they are after, they could fleece the jets to flop spots.
4. Cleveland....could trade out, but if you read the market for the 2nd pick....it's the same market. Cleveland will spend this pick on a top NON QB prospect.
5. Denver at 5. They aren't moving up. Let's look at this closely...it's another team alot of folks here haven't paid close attention to. They signed Keenum for starter money. They have a coaching staff who has THIS YEAR. The GM has been plauged by poor QB choices. Paxton Lynch is still on the roster. They have re-upped their WR's for the next two seasons. They are in WIN NOW mode while they percieve their window is open. They need more day 1 starter help, not developmental QB help. They are NOT a threat to move up now, nor are they a threat to take a QB where they sit. They are in on a top Non QB prospect at 5. They are staying put.
6. Colts. Chose to trade with Jets for a reason...wanting a top NON QB prospect and can still get that here.
Miami just restructed Tannehill...he's there for 2 more seasons, or they take a giant cap hit to let him go.
The Bills are still in line to get a QB...at 12. The Jets move up has settled the situation at the top....the Problem here is the Bills Board. is the QB that will be left, is he "the man?"
speculating that the draft goes 1.Darnold. 2. Rosen. 3 Mayfield. That leaves ALLEN, JACKSON....and Rudolph. It is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that Buffalo passes at 12 now even, and waits for 21 to see how it shakes out. I am sure Jackson and Rudolph will have made it that far..and possibly even Allen. That leaves the following possible scenarios.
Best Case: at 2, the Giants keep the pick AND take a NON QB. Jet's go Mayfield...that leave Rosen for the taking, and the Bills with plenty of Ammo and all sorts of trade partners to work with to move up and get him.
More Likely Case: Giants don't show their hand, Jets get itchy about their man, fear someone could move up, Giants know Bills have need for Rosen....takes 2 to have a market....they have a market...Bills sell the farm to move up. 12, 21, other picks. Get Rosen.
Alternate Likely Case: Giants convince Jets someone is about to move to 2 and get their guy. Jet's swap with Giants. Jets take Mayfield anyhow. Giants and Bills talk. Bills still pay ransom to move up to 3 for Rosen.
Better Case: Rosen still on board as draft progresses....closer he gets to 12, less ransom the bills pay to move up....perhaps he lasts to 12. Beane is hero.
Not knowing what the Giants think of Rosen and others, and not being sure who the Jets want keeps things cloudy, but the Bills are not in horrible shape, they haven't missed out...and the Jets moving to 3 clarifies the market and allows time to consider options and plan.
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No....This was a measured move by the Colts to get a bunch of extra selections AND stay in the top 6. They will get a blue chip NON QB at 6. There is someone up there that they like and wanted to stick around for....that is the ONLY REASON to make this deal today....they simply were not going to consider anyone outside the top 10 as a trading partner....again that is the ONLY reason to go ahead do this now, not 40 days from now.
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On 3/4/2018 at 9:39 PM, Zerovotlz said:
With the situation at this point still being so fluid, none of us really know who is going to end up where. We do know that as of today, the Bills are at 21/22, and that's all we really know. We don't know if they will be compelled to trade up, or if someone is willing to trade back, or if the guy they want, if they like one of them, will even be there. There are several teams in the "Franchise QB" market even as there are plenty of journeyman types out there, and Kirk Cousins who will be someones franchise QB soon enough.
What if the Bills simply can't get the guy they want went the dust settles? It might not even be due to lack of interest or lack of trying...just being in the position they are in could simply mean they lose by default this go round.
In 2019, should the Bills be in the market again, let's consider who else could be in that market. Let me speculate about 2018 first.
Cleveland is going to end up with a QB one way or another in this draft.
The Giants MIGHT take one, or trade out. I am going to call it now that they DO NOT take one in round 1 this year.
The Colts shouldn't be in the QB market now, but I can't 100% call that until Luck throws some passes. Reports are that he won't need another shoulder surgery, but he still hasn't thrown. For the sake of this post, I'll assume he is healthy. No QB now, No QB next year.
Denver- is a real wild card here. I don't think they are going to be able to sell Cousins on winning now in Denver, nor will they make the highest offer. I'd say they lose out on Cousins, but sign BRADFORD. (could be Keenum...half a dozen of one, 6 of the other ...whatever) They could still take one to develope, but that would be counter to trying to win now. The coaching staff is being given THIS YEAR, the roster window is basically THIS YEAR. They have holes to fill THIS YEAR. Elway may not have the green light to go QB after missing on Oswieler and Lynch...They may be inclined to wait until next year just because of where they are with their roster. Taking the QB now, with the coaching staff you are going to fire if they don't win now, is poor form. Lynch is still on the roster and while they may have determined he sucks....the situation almost demands he get one more shot before they tear down the whole thing...the roster, the staff..maybe even Elway himself. It seems like the timing is all off for Denver to be drafting one high. The one caveat being Josh Allen. If Denver can get him, I think that is who Elway loves and would be willing to go up and get him if they can make a deal to get to 1. I am going to say, in the end, Cleveland keeps the 1 and takes Josh Allen.
Jets- This is another team that will end up with a QB be it Cousins or a draft pick. I am going to say that I think the Vikings are the leader in the clubhouse for Cousins. Cousins can get paid there, have a stable front office and roster, and coaching staff all there. The jets roster and staff or in limbo. So for 2018....Allen goes 1. Giants go Barkley. Colts go Chubb. Cleveland could look to trade back at 4, but dont' and go Minka Fitzpatrick. Denver again is the trade up wildcard here. If Bufalo likes Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, they will need to be on the phone. I think the Jets will probabbly pay a price just to move up to 3,4 or 5 and go with Mayfield. If not, Arizona will be hot on the phone to get up here for one of those 3. i don't know who arizona likes out of that grouping. I do think the Jets love Mayfield...either they have to go up a few spots to get him, or they get word that Arizona is coming up for Rosen or Darnold and stay put. Either way, the Jets are going to be Baker Mayfields new team.
Assuming Arizona has traded up at this point, and the Jets have taken Mayfield....then it gets interesting for the trade up teams because that means Darnold, Jackson, and Rudolph are still on the board and the next several teams aren't in the QB market.
If this plays out as I have it here, you are looking at dark horse teams who might be interested in moving up to grab Darnold. Miami could suddenly find itself interested in going QB. Cincy could consider going QB as they will have lost MacCaron. the Saints could be interested in finding Drew Brees replacement, and the Chargers might be looking at Phillip Rivers successor. All but New Orleans is currently ahead of the Bills....but at this point, the Bills draft Ammo is more than sufficient to get up there...the problem is, do they like Darnold, Rudolph or Jackson?
Since this is about looking ahead to 2019, I will assume ONE of those teams trades up or stays put and lands Darnold. Then it becomes a two horse show. Does Buffalo like Rudolph or Jackson enough to move up if they feel they need to? Do they stay put and see if one of them makes it to them? Do they even want either of those two? for the sake of argument, lets say that they DO NOT go QB for whatever reason at this point.....you are looking at QB again in 2019....so what does that look like?
First lets examine who might be in the QB market.
Chargers if they don't get Rivers successor this year
Saints if they don't get Brees successor this year
Steelers if they think Ben is considering retiring
Bengals if they are tired of Dalton and don't get a replacement this year.
Oakland if Gruden decides Carr can't be redeemed.
Tampa if they sour on Winston
Tennesee if they sour on Mariotta.
Miami if Tannehill can't stay healthy and they didn't draft a round 1 guy this year.
Denver if the whole thing comes crashing down.
All of these teams aren't certain to be in the QB market....a lot of things would have to play out to have any of them shopping for one. Let's go with Cincy being finished with Andy Dalton, being the actual main threat to draft one high. The Chargers, Saints and probalby Oakland will have a good record so will be drafting late even if they are looking QB. Miami won't be in the market if Tannehill is healthy and puts up Top 15 numbers...that's a reasonable expectation.
Tennessee might be growing a bit tired of Mariotta, but I don't think they give up on him yet. Same with Tampa and Winston...and Winston has at least had some big stats here and there.
that means really there might be 2-3 teams really in the "draft a franchise QB" mode to compete with the Bills.
Next years Class does not look strong as of now...it could change....but Drew Lock as the top of the class next year would make me consider what's out there in 2018 pretty hard. I am a Missouri Fan, and I love Drew Lock as my Tigers QB....I don't think I'd want him leading my NFL team.
So, summing it up.....Even though there would seem to be fewer NFL teams with a need in the 2019 draft for a QB, and that the Bills might be better positioned in that draft to get one, the class seems pretty weak at least this far out. You'd be kicking that can another year down the road for likely an even less appealing option than this year.
In conclusion. Now is the time to make it happen. Good luck.
....called it.
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Not sure how anyone wants to define "bridge" but I posted about this here a few days ago. Using as a basis all QB's who have started in a superbowl in the last 20 years....these would generally be considered good, great, successful QB's by just about any metric.....when you split those guys up into two groups....those who started from day1 and those who sat for a while (half a season or longer) ....you find that the QB rating in each of those groups first 16 NFL starts is THE SAME. .....IF there were some advantage to be gained by sitting and learning it should show up for the QB's who sat and learned by getting on the field and being more ready, and therefore having better stats.....but it simply DOES NOT play out that way at all. TALENT is the determining factor on the QB being worth a damn or not...and getting those first 16 games under your belt should happen sooner, not later....as there is ZERO data suggesting sitting is a benefit. Lot's of people like to make genreal statements....sit and learn...watch how things are done, study film. and so he won't get "thrwon to the wolves and have his confidence ruined. THE DATA SUGGESTS that is all bull mess. Get on the field...in game action. That is where the learning happens.
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3 minutes ago, VirginiaMike said:
I agree - the Browns will take Barkley. He's the best player in the draft and will make the offense better immediately. With a #4 pick as well, the Browns still can take one of the top QBs. I hope they take Allen because I don't want the Bills tempted to take that guy.
They just signed Carlos Hyde.....did you read that? Please explain why the Browns would sign a starting RB in free agency then spend the first overall pick at RB?
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19 minutes ago, Starr Almighty said:
I agree and Rivers learned nothing sitting behind Brees too
Favre is on record saying he didn't like Aaron Rodgers and didn't teach him anything. And again....WHAT is it they are learning? If they are learning something, it isn't showing up when they get on the field...you'd expect to see a difference in the QB ratings for the guys who sat to be measurably higher in their first 16 games wouldn't you?
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2 minutes ago, psuscott16 said:
The problem with the argument is there is no way to track, with data, the mental or physical impact on a talented QB that was thrown into the fire. Derrick Carr would be one that jumps to mind.
This kind of thing is very difficult to extrapolate data out of. Just using Mahomes as an example....he was 20 years old last year....maybe sitting helped him mature? Maybe working on his footwork or taking snaps in practive helped? Hard to say. You would be inclined to believe it was beneficial to sit. But, if you think sitting helps, someone like Rodgers or that grouping of SB starters who sat at first...that includes Brady fwiw.....you'd expect that their numbers over the first 16 games of their careers would be better than a rookie who was thrown right in...that first 16 games....the numbers say it simply isn't the case.
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5 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:
Right, Aaron Rodgers learned nothing sitting behind Favre.
His QB rating during his first 16 games starting in the NFL suggest all that sitting didn't matter. Among SB QBs the past 20 years, his first 16 games were the same as the ones who started right away.
3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:If Mahomes plays well whats the data say about that? Who to say he wouldnt have looked like Kizer? Granted Kizer didnt have the players around him KC does. Some guys are better prepared to play learning the position and how its done at the NFL then winging it on the Fly. The KC Chief would not have gone as far or been as successful with Mahomes playing qb.
If Mahomes plays well, what data can you point to, that shows it was BECAUSE he sat and not because he is talented?
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10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
They should play when they are ready. You dont want to force the rookie on the feild. When they are the best Qb on the team they play. Mccarron adds a bit of a competion element and also time to let the rookie adjust. I expect whoever is drafted if Buffalo trades up will surpass Mccarron some point during the rookie season. When? Idk could be OTAs could be TC could be mid season. Heck maybe Mccarron comes out of nowhere and kills it like Jon Kitna when Palmer was a rookie.
If Mccarron is playing, your rookie isn't benefitting. Data suggests he needs to get his first 16 games under his belt...data says sitting doesn't accelerate development.
9 minutes ago, Mango said:Best man wins in camp. But it has to be consistently. So if the rook comes in and isn't better 80% of the time, he sits I think. Just to avoid the huge clunkers, and digging the team/himself into a hole. I have faith that McCarron is a more than serviceable place holder, so the situation is different than at other points.
Not many rookies will see the field if the "best man" is on the field. Rookie needs to develope to become the best man....data suggests they dont' develope on the bench.
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A while back this was a major topic of discussion about Mahomes and when he would be "ready". I decided to try and see if there was any data to support sitting or starting etc. Here is what I found.
I used QB's who started in a super bowl in the last 20 years as a basis to check this. The idea was to check a large sample of "successful NFL QBs". Here was what I found.
Of the QBs to have started in at least one SB the past 20 years, the QB rating was practically the same over their first 16 games starting. So the group who sat, rated THE SAME as the group that started from day 1 as rookies over their first 16 games.
In the case of TALENTED NFL QB's who played in a superbowl, the TALENT is what mattered, not sitting and learning. IF sitting was a factor, there should be a measurable advantage to those QB's in their first 16 games who sat, from having more film study, mentoring, etc. THERE IS NOT. Playing QB in the NFL is something you must actually get on a field and do in order to learn.
The "Bridge QB" as a concept is dumb. Having a veteran backup in case your rookie is INJURED so the rest of the team can develope and compete is great...having some guy be a "placeholder" who delays your rookie from taking the field is less than optimal. You are wasting the most critical portion, the most painful portion of that developement and therefore also wasting:
1. The time you have your QB on his cheap rookie deal.
2. The useful year(s) of the other players on your roster.
Draft your man, get him on the field. See if he improves over the course of 16 games. That's it.
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3 hours ago, Luka said:
The crazy part of the situation in KC is Mahommes hasn't proven jack ****.
I can understand why you would say this....but, you'll get it about 3 or 4 weeks into the season.
3 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:But he is on a rookie deal and since he was drafted in the first is a franchise guy!
I have watched a parade of mediocre QB's come through here since I was old enough to pay attention back in 86. Mahomes is NOT like any of them...he is different. he is better, and when you watch it, it is obvious. Clearly, I am biased, and you shouldn't take my word for it...but google things like Baldy Breakdowns Pat Mahomes, or just read all the comments from folks who would know.....or connect the dots....Cheifs have Alex Smith, he is good, his stat sheet is stellar. They traded up to draft Mahomes. They work with Mahomes all year. They trade Alex Smith and will start Mahomes. They didn't have to trade Smith..he was under contract another season....They know what they have.
2 hours ago, Luka said:I've always advocated putting together the best possible team. I bet Alex Smith would've liked to have Watkins last year, seems they were always devoid of talent at the position. I'm just wary of annointing any QB the Chosen One until they you know, play a couple NFL games first.
Alex Smith would not get much out of Watkins. Smith doesn't like throwing deep unless the guy has completely beaten coverage by a mile. Watkins, or any WR is wasted with Smith (SEE Jeremy Maclin) for evidence. And if you aren't convinced....watch the Redskins this year. Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson are going to be fantasy superstars...Josh Doctsons career trajectory will now go the wrong way...and they just signed Paul Richardson today....he will be a disappointment....more becasue of the QB (Smith) than Richardsons talents.
As far as KC spending big on Watkins.....in my opinion, KC's offense was already good to go...need to spend on D...I guess we are tyring to be greatest show on natural grass. I am skeptical of a guy who has injury history, etc like alot of folks here.
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19 minutes ago, cd1 said:
"Rookie deals" don't last forever!
If not careful or you won't be able to "afford" you franchise guy once it is time to pay the piper.
Watkins is three years. Hitchens three years. Mahomes is under contract three more years. Plus looking like labor dispute coming in2020.
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I am as surprised as anyone else how we (KC) are throwing around money.
Brett Beach said a month ago we would be adding another fast deep threat at WR. The money is steep, but I can’t emphasize enough what they believe ( and I believe) they have in Mahomes. Bombs will be dropping all over the field. Watkins is only 24. They are betting he is about to reach that potential. I hope he does.
my main point is though, if you get a QB in the draft who in fact is a franchise guy, this is the kind of spending you can do (I’m not arguing it’s wise spending, we’ll see) lots of room to build out the roster when QB isn’t consuming 10-30% of your cap space
Rumor: Trade up discussion with Giants
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
My 2 cents.
1. Cleveland will take a QB.
2. NY will take a QB. They will do their due dilligence and field calls, but really they will stay where they are. The reality is, the 2019 Draft Class is going to be one of those years where ZERO QB's are drafted in round 1. It's that bad. The QB's coming out next year SUCK. The crop of potential QB free agents next year...SUCKS...compared to the bounty available this crazy offseason. Eli SUCKS....at this point. He wants to retire a Giant. I can see him accepting his mortality a bit better if he gets to finish as the mentor to his chosen successor (and not benched for Geno Smith) The Giants have considered all this. The most value they can muster from the 2nd overall pick....is to use it themselves. ROSEN.
3. The Jets will take a QB. Consider the situation in New York...they have a GM and a HC who are on short leashes. They DO NOT HAVE TIME to wait for Darnold or even worse, Josh Allen to develop. They moved up here to insure themselves Baker Mayfield. He will be ready to go day 1. He has had a billion college reps, he got better each year, he has a high completion pct. He is a big name. He has a Heisman. He is a charachter. He has JETS written all over him. ...and again...can't stress enough, he is ready to go day 1. The staff needs results sooner rather than later.
4. Cleveland will take someone here not named Saquan Barkley. .....That front office just signed Carlos Hyde to good money, he is a Buckeye, and they have Duke Johnson, who has been one of their better players as the 3rd down guy on the roster. The same front office has a long history of not valuing RB high in the draft...and this one is full of RB....they can get a good one later, if they even think they need another one.
5. Denver. No reason to be scared of these guys taking a QB....and not just becasue they signed Keenum....but consider they did sign him..to starter money. The coaching staff has been told publicly they have THIS YEAR to produce results. The Broncos still have a first round QB on the roster that Elway seems to have wiffed on, but he was supposed to be a 2-3 year project coming out. They re-upped their two WR. They are in win now mode with a coaching staff in win now mode...they simply aren't set up to draft their next QB...this staff isn't going to be around for that....they either win with Keenum or they are done and Denver will then go into rebuild mode. They will take the Guard from ND. Day one pro bowl starter at a position they need desperately.
6. Colts. ...Buffalo could have offered them more than the Jets and I bet they did offer more....but as has been mentioned...Colts understand how this is playing out and at worst they will end up with the 3rd Best NON QB picking here. They will stay put.
7 bucs....another great NON QB player they like here. Barkley is my guess.
8. Bears. Spent heavily on offense in FA...take Davenport.
9. 49ers. This is where the action will be on draft night for Arizona, and Buffalo if they want something still on the QB board. I am guessing Josh Allen, Jackson and Mason Rudolph are what is left. Here is where the Bills move because Arizona will be trying to get up here too...and the Bills get Josh Allen.
Miami is not a threat to move up. They quietly restructured Tannehill a couple weeks ago...and parting ways with him will be cap hell the next 2 seasons. They also resigned David Fales...
Watch out for San Diego and Pittsburg moving up to that 9 spot for Allen...and if they don't get that...both are major candidates to move around trying to get Rudolph.
I do not think Jackson will go round 1.
1. Darnold
2. Rosen
3 Mayfield
9. Allen (to Buffalo) Trade with 49ers
14. Rudolph (to San Diego) Trade with Packers.