Zerovoltz
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Posts posted by Zerovoltz
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I think it is entirely POSSIBLE that 6 QB go in round 1....and I think it is also POSSIBLE that 5 go in the top 15.
Cleveland. QB.
New York G QB
New York J QB
Denver trades BACK....Allen or Rudolph go at 5 to someone.
9 Niners trade BACK. Allen or Rudolph go at 9 to someone.
Later on in round 1, somoene takes Lamar Jackson.
I still beleive Darnold is the pick at 1.
I still believe that the Giants will take a QB while the getting is good and cheap for them.
It's a given the jets are taking a QB.
I have said all along and continue to believe the Broncos are not in the QB market. They are in the OL market...if they trade back and miss Nelson, then they can take one of the high grade OT..Their fans don't want OL at 5 but that would be more palatable after a trade back. And again...the coaching staff has been publicaly told they have THIS YEAR. no reason to draft the QB now, that the coaches won't touch with a ten foot pole. they are tyring to win now.
Mason Rudolph is about to fly up the draft board. The media doesn't want to believe it or realize it...but he's 6'5, has a good deep ball..a high completion pct playing at big school, etc etc...and it will occur to them that they could get a guy not quite the physical beast that Allen is, but who is prototypical AND he actually played college football well? .....Rudolph IS the guy NFL front offices usually say they want....He is going top 15. I think someone goes up and takes him before Allen and before Jackson. I have said for the past couple Months, he is who the Bills should be targeting considering the circumstances....I simply don't think you can sit and wait for this guy at 12.
If 3 go 1-2-3 as I suspect...the Bills better be prepared to move. I completely think the Patriots, Chargers, and Cardinals will call the Broncos about 5. FOR RUDOLPH.
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It's interesting how the media has so much influence on these things. Let's examine last year. That QB class wasn't hyped during the lead up to the draft, and it wasn't hyped the season before as being a class to look forward to. The media, it would seem to me, when they come to a consensus on something, they tend to roll with it. Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson and Kizer weren't good according to the media and the media maintained that message for the most part. Part of that narrative was that this class was supposed to be very good...and the media has maintained that. From an evaluation standpoint, if you looked at the 3 first round guys from last year and the first round projected guys this year....is that REALLY the case? Josh Allen is a better prospect than Pat Mahomes? (of course I am biased to Mahomes, but come on.)
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4 hours ago, Logic said:
I don't know many two-down, thumper 3-4 ILBs that are "stars" any more. We'll see.
I am pretty sure that quote was intended to be consumed by the local KC fanbase....they let very popular long time LB Derrick Johnson walk (for good reason, he is very old now and very slow) and many of the fans don't like it that he wasn't resigned. I think this was more to feed them something to help them understand why they moved on. I agree that inside LB in this era are hardly involved enough in high profile plays to be "stars" Unless you make a number of interceptions (not Raglands game) or sacks (not likely when he won't be blitzing much) then you aren't going to be on sportscenter (or whatever highlight media) much.
I saw enough of Ragland to think he is going to be at least an above average run defender and maybe more....he is an upgrade over what we've had for sure.
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3 minutes ago, Bills365 said:
If cleveland takes Allen. i could see the jets doing what the bears did last year and swapping the giants. If the giants are not gonna take a qb why wouldnt they do it? take the extra picks for the same player. The jets would cut any teams off from attempting to jump them for a qb. I really hope that doesnt happen but i think its a real possibility.
This is much more likely than the Browns coming up to 2.
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The Barkley hype is killing me. He was 57th out of 58 draft eligible players who were graded for yards after contact behind the line of scrimmage. He is a very good player. he is not a complete generation talent at RB. The draft is deep at RB. The Browns have plenty at RB on the roster. The Giants could use one, but you can get good ones all over the draft. RB= easy to find. EDGE= not so easy to come by. QB= hardest position in sports to find. The browns aren't taking Barkley at 1. The Giants are not taking Barkley at 2.
I will buy that Giants could take Chubb at 2.
So, let's examine the scenario....the Browns take Barkley at 1......this invites the Giants to maybe move a spot with the Jets...they could make a deal with the condition the Jets take QB "X" wich is a QB the Giants aren't interested in. The jets take QB X. Now the Giants are on the clock at 3. They may still very well want QB "Y" and could easily take him here...or again, could slide one more spot to 4 with Cleveland again, with the understand that Cleveland is going to draft QB "Z". Now the Giants are on the clock at 4 and can take QB "Y" or Chubb. This seems like a whole lot of what ifs and hand shake understandings that certain players are selected. ...but even worse than that...it assumes Barkley goes 1. That is the worst part...he isn't going at 1.
Let's examine it another way....let's say Cleveland takes Allen at 1. What would the point be? If the Giants take Chubb and Cleveland wanted Chubb, there would be no trade. If the Giants take Barkley and that is who Cleveland wanted...no trade...it would only make sense if the Giants again, had an understanding about which NON QB they would take, maybe you could pull it off...but there just isn't much to be gained by swapping...If you already aren't taking the same player....there is nothing to gain by swapping.
Its an extremely unlikely scenario simply because there is pratically nothing to be gained by the Browns or the teams to swap.
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3 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:
The funny part about Lamar, his ceiling to me is so much higher than anyone in this class. If someone can find a way to mold an offense around him, the kid could be the second coming of Vick.
That being said, Allen who doesnt bring the same athletic ability or credentials is rated higher than Jackson. Its beyond astonishing to me.
This is the thing that blows my mind....if you are a team drafting a QB this year....I don't understand how you can like Allen and not like Jackson and vice versa. You either marvel at the physical attributes and don't worry about the completion pct, or decision making or you worry about the completion pct and don't care they are physical specimens. ....to like one and not the other makes no sense..they have similar concerns.
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I come here a couple times of day myself, and I am a Chiefs fan. I signed up to see what Bills fans have had to say about the trade last year, and to see what your thoughts about this draft coming up are, especially as this is the culmination of last years trade down, and other moves to get to this point and select your guy. Since joining I've also submitted my arm chair GM thoughts and participated in some other threads etc. I've come to really enjoy this forum a lot. This is, overall, a really good group of fans to interact with. MOST of the people here are rational in their thought processes and speak (type) intelligently. Way more fun here than the Chiefs groups I am in.......tons of "we should see if the Bears will trade us their first round pick for Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, or is that too much to offer them?" threads. (Ware and West are both backup RB's who were nobodies to begin with and now coming off injuries) ....and those threads actually have people participate in serious discussions about that. It sucks.
I will troll some about Mahomes (he is going to be freaking awesome!) but I genuinely hope you all get the QB you want and deserve. I will keep following the Bills into the future if they take a QB just to see how it goes. I've kind of become attached and invested in all of this....Fun times.
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.....If nothing else, this just confirms that the Broncos are NOT in the QB market. I've made this case for months here....they signed Keenum to starter money, they have PUBLICLY given their entire coaching staff THIS YEAR. They aren't taking a QB high and then turning that kid over to a staff that won't want a damn thing to do with him. They are tyring to keep the window open and drafting a QB this year does not fit with any of that. .....If the Broncos were in on a QB, not only would this news not be out there...they'd also be trying to get to 2. They aren't.
I continue to stick with my same analysis of this as I have had for the past couple months.
1. Darnold. I beleive he is the consensus no.1 QB and I think ultimately Cleveland takes him.
2. Rosen. Giants recently had a press conference where Gettleman said it was horse mess to think the Giants had to take a QB. I think they like Chubb quite a bit and it would benefit the Bills if the Giants went Non QB...but I just can't get past the math involved when you consider how hard it is to get a franchise QB, and how in this year, picking 2nd, you can get a guy who is conisdered a possible franchise QB, and have him ready to go when Eli bites the dust....Edge rushers aren't exactly falling from trees, but they are easier to come by than blue chip QB prospects.
3. Mayfield. again...I have said it a hundred times...that coaching staff and FO need this pick to work. Mayfield played a TON of reps...high completion pct...and he is cocky and a name...has NY written all over him.
4. Browns stay put and take non QB of their choosing. I don't presume to know who this would be...my guess would be Chubb.
5. Broncos are after the guard from Notre Dame...they would be compelled to move down if they can still pick him up...I say they keep the pick and take him here.
6. Colts will consider a move down but I think they stay in place and go with a defensive player.
7. Bucs. Saquon Barkley. This is really the first spot where Barkley could go to a team that really does need him.
8. Bears will draft defense here.
9. Niners....I maintain this is the hot trade spot....
Remember, the farther along this goes, the cheaper it gets to trade up...New England, Chargers, Cardinals, will be on the phone here. Bills move up to 9.
9. Bills Josh Allen.
10-14. Cardinals, Chargers, Patriots...someone gets Rudolph here.
Late round 1. Saints kick tires on Lamar Jackson
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1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:
Thanks for that
Beleive me...you are totally welcome! .....seriously I hope the Bills get that QB this year....I like win/win trades.
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I'll be there day one only. Attending the exclusive, official Chiefs pre draft party then attending day 1, even though KC has no round 1 pick. Since I live down here.....nothing better to do on a thursday evening.
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1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:
Just looking at your avatar, Mahomes is the perfect test case for a project QB drafted in the top half of the 1st round.
Yeah....good point...the knock on Mahomes was that his mechanics needed work and he'd need some time to learn taking snaps under center...
31 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:It's really hard to define a project QB.
Isn't Drew Brees one? He sat for his first year behind Flutie while the Dougster was completing 56.4% of his passes and throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs. I'd argue Cousins is a terrific example.
Isn't Romo one?
Is a project QB only a guy who has potential to be near-elite or a top ten guy if he develops? Or is it anyone who is thought to be able to start if he develops? Hard to say.
Favre? Dunno, maybe. The story is bizarre. Take a look:
https://www.si.com/nfl/2016/10/18/brett-favre-book-jeff-pearlman-atlanta-falcons-green-bay-packers
He certainly wasn't picked to start the first year. Miller was the established starter.
Isn't Brady one? No, nobody called him to be excellent but they thought he might be decent down the line. Isn't that developmental? I think it is, but it's reasonable to disagree.
I think Russell Wilson was drafted as a developmental guy but they found to their surprise and excitement he was ready right away.
What is a developmental QB? I'd say it's a guy who you think/hope can get a lot better with time and teaching. I think there are plenty of them over the years.
So, yes, this is kind of hard to define. I'd almost try and separate these into two categories...Project...and developmental. When I hear project, it seems like that is always associated with some QB who posses physical talents/traits but lacks experience in a certain offense, or needs mechanics work, but who scouts have identified as someone with a very high ceiling if the project to fix those issues succeeds. The developmental QB would be someone identified as a 3rd round pick or later, who lacks something physically usually, but who has exhibited proficient play in college and could become a servicable backup or starter if surrounded by a strong roster etc someday......so to that end....you could see Mahomes as a "project" although, I still tihnk of that term as something reserved for VERY RAW prospects that need alot of work...more than Mahomes....by this defintion..jsut about eveyrone in this 1st round is a project...and I don't really think that term fits Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield...like it fits Allen.....where as Peterman would be developmental....over time he could be serviceable starter but never expected to be a "star" .....does that make sense? If so....Allen would surely be a "project". Paxton Lynch would be a project. Bryce Petty would have been considered developmental.
So, to me..project should apply to someone just like Allen or Lynch....physical traits are there, height, arm, etc, but have some serious work to fix major flaws....so that if fixed you have a star...that is a project.
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Skins...I agree Warner is a great story. But, can you really call a guy who was basically barely on the radar a project? Maybe you can....he gained some notoriety playing in the Arena Leauge wich drew some interest from a few teams....but it's not like anyone went into that draft year and said Kurt Warner...he could be great but he's a project. I would think he is more a story about perserverance than being seen as this talented guy who just needed time and coaching.
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Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project". It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL?
Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do.
Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us)
On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready.
Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here)
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Good write up. I don't agree with all of it, but it's useful information. I remain skeptical due to completion pct.....and the bothersome part is....this kid was a physical specimen, from California. He had to go to JUCO, where he had a low completion pct. .....you are asking me to believe that that this manchild with a golden arm, in California, was NOT RECRUITED to a divsion 1 school, where you would think that a coaching staff would be interested in coaching him up. That didn't happen. He went to JUCO and didn't light the world on fire there. He can throw it far. His targets, had a low drop pct. He was playing against lesser talented defenders. There is alot to like....clearly he is being considered because of the good qualities.
I certainly can't say the OP is wrong, or that Allen can't be coached into being better than he has been....but I don't like the odds. I will remain skeptical.
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1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:
Right, but trading Alex Smith would also seem to indicate their faith in Mahomes is genuine, misplaced or not.
.....Yes....there is no reason for HYPE....they are actually all in on the guy....trading a pro bowl QB, with a year left at a reasonable 20 million ought to tell you way more than anything myself or some pundit could SAY. They BELIEVE it....and so do I.
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3 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:
IMO McD knew the whole FO would be turned over after the draft, he likely gets 1 real shot at QB, he was going to wait on the scouts he trusted to evaluate and identify the QB to stake it all on, they weren't in a position to decide that last year.
The 2017 Draft year, for the Chiefs to get Mahomes, a lot of things had to line up just right. The Bears taking Trubisky, then the Niners, opting not to like any of the QB, waiting on Cousins, The Jets, having only taking Hackenburg one season before, were still willing to wait on him, The Browns opted for Myles Garret at one. The bills having the FO in flux, as you say, with McDermott not about to have his career determined by Doug Whaleys scouting and draft, weren't taking a QB.
1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:That is how most of these deals are done.
I wasn't a big Mahomer but I consistently said last year that punting on QBs when we were in position to take one when there was no way of knowing whether we would be in position again in 2018 was a very risky strategy.
As a long suffering Cheifs fan...it was wonderful to see my team FINALLY identify a guy and then go get him when he was there. I hope it works out for Buffalo this year. I understand your pain.
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....first lets get past this "they could have kept Jimmy G" garbage. No they couldn't have. .....He was going to be a UFA this offseason if he hadn't been traded. New England WAS NOT going to use the franchise tag on a QB who won't start. You can't pay your backup Starter money while you are paying your starter, starter money. The Pats did give him up cheap, but they still got more than what they would have gotten if they let him walk. (they got a 2nd, letting him walk would have netted a compensatory pick at end of round 3.) So, please folks, quit prefacing all your patriots takes with "they could have kept Jimmy G". they could not have.
...second. It may well be true they like Baker Mayfield...and as some others have noted....they can't get him. If the Browns don't take him. AND, the Giants opt to trade out of 2 AND the Giants don't take a phone call from the Jets to move down ONE pick so the Jets can assure themselves their choice at two AND the Bills also somehow, if the Giants are open for business...also can't beat the pats offer..then and only then, would the Pats be able to get Mayfield. ....the notion is ABSURD.
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I've seen enough of Allen that I would avoid him until day 3. I'm not a coach or a scout. I am just some nobody like everyone else here. I like speculating, watching film, making a judgment like everyone else here. I can completely understand the fascination with the guy. He absolutely has the physical traits you want a QB to have. Big, tall, rocket arm...and high wonderlic score to boot. Seems to have interview quite well, and looked great at the combine and senior bowl. There is a ALOT to like there. To me....you can't overlook the flaws...wich are substantial. He makes poor choices at the line...he stares down targets. he isn't an accurate thrower. That alone, I could almost accept and deal with it...but the fact he did not IMPROVE over time is the single biggest red flag in my mind. This sort of flaw is major.
If the Bills end up with Josh Allen it will be precisely because they couldn't get into the top 3 AND they will be panicking because frankly, you aren't going into this season with McCarron, no no.1 drafted QB, and the bleak prospects of 2019 at QB. The front office, after passing like they did last year, CAN NOT come away from day 1 without a QB. They CANT. If you get to pick 7 or so, and you know you have the Patriots, Cardinals, Chargers, behind you making calls, and for who, Allen, Rudolph, ? Jackson?...the pucker factor in the Bills war room will be defcon 5 if 1-2-3 is all QB and Allen isn't one of them....
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10 minutes ago, Bring Back Kelly said:
Ohh and I'm sure that's the order that they will be picked in.
We aren't talking about the order they will be picked in. you claimed he his recievers dropped the ball alot. they didn't. No one said anything about draft order. Just own it and move on.
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4 hours ago, Bring Back Kelly said:
I find it funny how everyone keeps on the accuracy issues. The kid had bad receivers. If you bother to look at the highlights, his receivers dropped a lot. The placement is what should be considered. A lot of those drops were right in position to be caught. He had 1 decent receiver out of 4. Plus he was down a starting center and RB. This guy can run, throw, anticipate and most importantly see over the center. Mayfield is Short and will have problems.
Umm...not so much.
Target drop passes percentages:
Lamar Jackson - 8.5%
Baker Mayfield - 8.0%
Josh Rosen - 7.5%
Mason Rudolph - 6.6%
Josh Allen - 4.8%
Sam Darnold - 4.3-
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Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:
Chiefs' worst case scenario. Mahomes blows out his knee on the 1st day of camp.
True.
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Of all the posibillities, I haven't seen much alluded to about the absolute worst case coming true on draft day. Here is a very real possiblity.
1 Cleveland takes a QB not named Josh Allen
2. Giants take a QB not named Josh Allen
3. Jets take a QB not named Josh Allen
4. Cleveland takes non QB.
5. Broncos take Josh Allen or non QB.
6-7-8-9-10-11. Someone trades up for Josh Allen if he is still on the board and it isn't the Bills.
12. Bills having missed top 4 QB, don't take one here.
13-21. Cardinals take Mason Rudolph, Chargers take Lamar Jackson or Saints(or New England) trade up for either of these guys before pick 22 and the Bills stay put.
22. No QB of note. Bills take non QB.
The "build the roster first" people will be STOKED.
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Browns - Darnold. They are going to end up doing this if for no other reason than, so if he doesn't work out they can sort of say "out of that grouping, most people had him no.1" He does seem to be no.1 on many folks lists. The Browns need some fallback excuse if they choose wrong. They can't take Allen even if they like him....red flags everywhere.
Giants - Rosen. They could trade out, as Bills fans continue to hope is the case. Here is the problem with the "Bills trade up with Giants" scenario. Lets assume for a moment the Giants really don't want a QB and are considering Chubb, or whoever. The Bills will be on the phone certainly. The problem is the Jets. They will also be on the phone. The Jets will be taking a QB. The Giants can move back to 3 if they dont' want a QB, and gain a nice extra set of picks...like the Niners did with the Bears last year. They still get the Non QB they want. In this case the Giants get the player they want and extra picks. The Bills offer to get to 2 in this market, is going to have to be outrageous. (I'd pay whatever it took if my QB was there but....) I still think the Giants take a QB and it's a moot point. If they do stick or only move to 3, it's Chubb..but I am staying with Rosen.
The Jets moving to three was a stroke of pre emptive brilliance frankly. The Bills are effectivly boxed out of the top 3, or at best, the price is going to be astronomical.
One way or another at 2 or 3, the Jets will get Mayfield.
Cleveland at 4 will stay put and get a non QB.
Broncos at 5 will consider a trade down, but will take the Notre Dame guard they need badly...read my other posts for why.
6-7-8 Non QB.
9-10-11. Ripe trade up destinations for whoever wants a piece of Allen. This is the reality the Bills are facing down. Trade up for Josh Allen? Stay for Josh Allen? Someone else comes up for Allen and the Bills stand still for someone else?
worst case. Bills don't move off 12 and someone (Arizona) comes up for Allen. Bills don't move off 22 and Mason Rudolph goes to the Chargers. Saints get wild hair and move ahead of Bills and take Lamar Jackson at 20 or so. Bills wait to day 2 or 3 for Lauletta, Mike White, etc.
5 QB in top 15
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I think we are about to see something that has never happened before.
5 QB in top 15 picks.
1. Browns. QB. (Darnold)
2. Giants. QB (Rosen)
3. Jets. QB (Mayfield)
5. Broncos trade out to Bills, Patriots, Chargers or Cardinals. (Rudoloph)
9. Niners tradout to Bills, Chargers or Cardinals. (Allen)
Jackson goes later in round 1 to the Saints.
Rudolph is going to blast up the draft board. Not sure why he isn't more well liked by the media...probably because the media already has their one 6'5" guy with the big arm etc (Allen) and have kind of overlooked the otehr 6'5" guy that can't throw a ball 80 yards from his knees....but has actually play the position of QB proficiently at a big college. BORING!
Allen will be the 5th off the board...and someone make a desparate pick having missed the first 4, will be taking him.
Too many QB needy teams in a QB stacked draft with a poor FA and draft class in 2019....perfect storm.