Zerovoltz
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***I am biased*** but being as objective as I can be here....
1. I don't want to lose site of the actual thread topic. This is a Josh Allen thread and about how he is doing. The reports coming out all match up with his scouting report. He has an incredible arm. He is mobile. He looks the part, and he is missing some throws. He is behind the others learning the playbook because the others have been here longer but he is catching up....high wonderlic score would indicate he can learn fast. This is ALL as advertised.....and he needs to SIT. I've done some analysis of QB's who started in the super bowl over the past 20 years and I looked at the first 16 games each of them started. The data in this case shows that sitting did not matter. A guy who sat 3 years had the same QB rating as the guy who started from day one over the course of the their first 16 games. It suggests that a super bowl starting caliber QB is going to be good wether he sits or not....and that the first 16 games of on field experiecne matter more than anything else. ......in the case of Allen, I would say he is one of the few who WOULD BENEFIT from sitting. His low completion pct playing at a small school, and the notion that he had a poor line and had to move around a lot suggests his reps in college were not very productive reps....in that he was often repeating plays where he had to run around etc and throw to less than decent targets....he isn't at a point where he would benefit by getting on an NFL field until he's had a TON of reps, in practice, with NFL level coaching, getting him prepared for the speed of the game, getting him used to the idea that he'll need to trust a pocket will be there and make reads to guys moving a lot faster. He needs to sit at least a year for all of this to take hold. Against the data, in this case...the exception is Josh Allen...there has never been such an obvious case for completely ruling a guy out of any plans to start for at least a year than this case with Allen. For the benefit of your team and your future....root for him to SIT.
2. Again...I am biased....and trying to be objective as I can....Mahomes is going to be a generational talent...you'll see it soon enough. If you draw your opinions on box scores, you are missing A LOT. Mahomes did have identifiable issues with his footwork, and he did make some glaringly poor throws in college. It's why he didn't go first overall...he needed some work. He got work. .....I can post a ton on this etc...but this is a Bills forum...I understand where I am here....I hope Allen works out for the Bills...I am looking forward to seing how it plays out in time. Lots of new QB talent coming into the leauge this past coupole seasons...very exciting times.
3. If nothing else....let Peterman or McCaron take the beating for the first 8 games at least. If you are honest about where the Bills roster is at this time, it isn't that great. Especially on offense. Let the kid sit...let the lesser guys take the pounding, and the wrath of the fans and media....then when he does get put into game action later on...the season will long be over, the team and fans will be ready to look at the remaining games to see what Allen can do and how he progresses...instead of looking at him as the guy who is going to save the franchise right now (he isn't ready!) SIT. SIT. SIT. Patience....and more paitience. Keep your shiny toy in the box for a while....
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My 2 cents on this.
Before the draft, NO ONE anywhere was saying Josh Allen would be a day one NFL starter. If ever there was a guy who needed to "sit and learn" it is Josh Allen. Allen is the same guy today he was before the draft..a physical specimen with a powerful arm....who has CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE flaws that need to be addressed before he would be considered ready to get onto an NFL field.
Allen is at MINIMUM a one year bench project and probably should be brought along even more slowly than that given what he is at this point. For comparison, look no further than Paxton Lynch. Go read his scouting reports pre draft a couple years ago..he was a "2-3 year project" with great size and arm who played in a spread BLA BLA BLA. They knew he was a project when they took him....and they got impatient and have given up on him already out there. I can't say it's justified to have given up or not, but it's a little unfair to call a "2-3 year project" a bust when you haven't given him 2-3 years EVERYONE though it would take to develope the guy. This is the danger with Allen. It is VERY HARD for a coaching staff to survive at 2-3 year development QB and see it though to where it pays off. If NOTHING ELSE, then ending the playoff drought last season might have bought your staff enough credibility and time to see it through....but that won't matter if the team is losing while waiting for Allen to be ready and the fans quit showing up...ownership will be tempted to compell the coaches to get the kid on the field NOW, or fire the coaches to placate the impatient fans. It's going to be a rough go. ....and after the time has been put in...you better get some results that show he is the QB to lead the team or a housecleaning comes and this all starts over again.
One other note....as much as I love Mahomes...and I think he could have started and done fairly well last season, KC had a pretty unique situation being able to sit the kid, work on his issues, while fielding a division winning team with a really good QB onboard already. Whole lot easier for even me, to wait while Smith was still leading a good football team.
Buffalo has a really rough schedule to start the year off. Let AJ take that beating..take the negative press, ....Allen needs work and reps...for at least a whole year....I'm normally of the shcool of thought that if a QB is going to be good, then he will be good wether he sits or not. ...this would be an exception. You drafted a KNOWN project...now let him go through "THE PROCESS" of being a project. If it is going to pay off at all, it has to be this way.
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Not gloating, bragging etc...just repeating what I have heard locally from KC OTA's.....take it for what it's worth...it's practice....but Sammy Watkins made a couple of spectacular one handed catches (there is film out there, if you search twitter for it.) ...Lots of comments on how smooth and fast he is...sharp sharp route runner. I think KC overpaid by quite a bit for the guy, but he does have a chance to make it look like a respectable contract in this offense...going to be designed to find the open guy/one on one match up and expect that guy to win most of the time....can't double cover Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt every play...someone will be in man or have a matchup to exploit...that is the idea anyhow...If Watkins can "win" his matchup, Mahomes can get him the ball. Watkins matchup win numbers with the RAMS were actually VERY VERY good (I can get the metric if you want me to go hunt it down) ....Goff didn't exploit his wins at a high pct. Anyhow...it's OTA's.....looking forward to preseason with pads on to get a real idea of what Watkins is going to look like in KC.
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Just for clarification...when I said the "book is closed"...yes, that means all the moves, picks etc have been executed...so now we know who got what and who went where.
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Just now, 3rdand12 said:
whaleys scouting
McD is a defense guy and likely waiting for Beane to get settled before laying down the stack on the poker table for future franchise QB
I absolutlely understand...and if I was McD, I'd probably have done the same thing...don't let the guy on the way out, lock me into a QB I haven't seen or evaluated and have that determine my fate....I'm not saying it was the wrong move by McD, but pointing out that these circumstances may come back and bite the Bills.
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2 minutes ago, MarlinTheMagician said:
I have been so impressed by Beane and McDermott. What McDermott got out of the roster last year. Beane's gumption to try to go get a QB and many other things. Plus, one of the best things is they seem totally in-sync. It seems when GM and coach are not on the same page it is a formula for disaster even if, independently, the coach and the GM might not be on the same page. Our guys are. And I don't think they are just copying Carolina - they were buddies there, but not in charge. I think they look at Carolina and say "here are all the things Carolina did well, how can we do it better."
I think they may be the best Coach/GM pairing in the league. And even if not the best now, perhaps the best YOUNG coach/GM combo - a band that could play together a long time. Adding people like Dan Morgan only helps (quality people giving us a real football infrastructure).
Be interested in the board's thoughts. How do they rank overall as a pair? How about among young GM/Coach teams? I think these guys are awesome, full disclosure.
(yeah, I am trolling a little here) ....the set up for the 2017 Draft meant that the coach and GM weren't working together. Plenty of speculation about it all...maybe so, and maybe not...but it might have prevented the Bills from taking Watson or Mahomes....wich led of course to Allen this year. ....and we simply can not say yet if this was a disaster or not...but we can certainly point to this as a point in time when the coach and outgoing GM were not likely on the same page.
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2 hours ago, Mat68 said:
College stats have never correlated to NFL success at Qb. Really there are 2 things, natural ability and drive. No one knows how hard a 20 something will work when they can have anything they want. Analytics got Clevelands lasy regime fired. They out thought themselves with Wentz.
I agree with your initial statement that college stats have never correlated to NFL Success....there is a long long list of college superstars who won trophies and put up "numbers" that bombed in the NFL. However, there is a stat that's been thrown out about completion percentage in college correlating to NFL failure.
Someone posted an argument in here in another thread about Josh Allen having not been raised up going to clinics and camps and etc etc....and on and on..and that he is only just now getting real coaching etc. I'd buy in 100% to that argument IF he had show improvement throughout his college career. The biggest red flag to me was that his completion pct was low at JUCO, and no one out in southern california thought they could coach him up..not even the minor players out there like Fresno State or SD State or San Jose State, who have put QBs into the NFL, and always get beat to the top talents by USC, Stanford, UCLA etc...they passed. Even still, Wyoming takes the kid. ....His completion pct sucked. it sucked again, and it never quit sucking. It would bother me a great deal to see that those mid majors out in California, again, who have put QB's in the NFL...Carr, Fales, ...didn't think they could coach that out of him. ....and then he goes to Wyoming, and those guys for whatever reason...failed to coach him up.
Now, I am looking at this from a far...so I am sure I am missing something here..but....The same coach (and GM) decided that a guy who had already has a 62.4 pct completion pct with 51 passing TDs against 18 pics, who has thrown for 9054 yards and rushed for 1700 yards and 15 TDs....that guys flaws can't be fixed......but they beleive they can "fix" Josh Allen? .....I'm not here to promote Tyrod Taylor. He may be Alex Smith light...not willing to throw downfield...takes off running out of clean pockets on 3rd and 8 and gains 3 and you punt....From what I have read, it may well be that Taylor had some of that going on....and if you decide that you are moving on from that...that is fine...it doens't change my point.
The coaching staff couldn't fix the NFL QB who again has a stat line of 62.4% 9054 Yds, 51 TDS, 18 ints, 1700 rushing and 15 rush TD...but they can fix this other guy that almost no one thought was fixable, and then in college, didn't improve after the guys who thought he was fixable brought him into their program......
I really hope it works out for you all....you deserve a great QB.
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11 minutes ago, Gugny said:
I'll maintain this forever: Had we kept Marrone and Whaley, this team would have been a perennial playoff team. We were a QB away.
Tell me if I'm wrong...but didn't Whaley like Mahomes?
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To Hapless Bills fan. With Rosen on the board I would have thought the Bills would go Rosen, so yeah, I lucked into my Allen trade and draft. I only thought Allen because I thought Darnold Rosen and Mayfield would all be off the board.
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Now that it's over....time to own up to what I said...(and take a little credit too) Here is my post from March 21st in one of the threads here....I really never much wavered from these...I posted this very same thing in many threads on this board....here it is for all to see...and for me to admit where I was wrong, and where I wasn't. Post draft comments are in bold.
My 2 cents.
1. Cleveland will take a QB. Not like anyone should pat themselves on the back for calling the obvious, but some here did think Barkley would go. no.1
2. NY will take a QB. They will do their due dilligence and field calls, but really they will stay where they are. The reality is, the 2019 Draft Class is going to be one of those years where ZERO QB's are drafted in round 1. It's that bad. The QB's coming out next year SUCK. The crop of potential QB free agents next year...SUCKS...compared to the bounty available this crazy offseason. Eli SUCKS....at this point. He wants to retire a Giant. I can see him accepting his mortality a bit better if he gets to finish as the mentor to his chosen successor (and not benched for Geno Smith) The Giants have considered all this. The most value they can muster from the 2nd overall pick....is to use it themselves. ROSEN. I was WRONG. I still the Giants are going to regret this.
3. The Jets will take a QB. Consider the situation in New York...they have a GM and a HC who are on short leashes. They DO NOT HAVE TIME to wait for Darnold or even worse, Josh Allen to develop. They moved up here to insure themselves Baker Mayfield. He will be ready to go day 1. He has had a billion college reps, he got better each year, he has a high completion pct. He is a big name. He has a Heisman. He is a charachter. He has JETS written all over him. ...and again...can't stress enough, he is ready to go day 1. The staff needs results sooner rather than later. I didn't think it would end up being Darnold...given the scenario that played out, if he didn't go 1, I was sure he would go 2. I was only right that this was for a QB, but that was obvious the moment they traded to 3.
4. Cleveland will take someone here not named Saquan Barkley. .....That front office just signed Carlos Hyde to good money, he is a Buckeye, and they have Duke Johnson, who has been one of their better players as the 3rd down guy on the roster. The same front office has a long history of not valuing RB high in the draft...and this one is full of RB....they can get a good one later, if they even think they need another one. We'll never really know if they would have taken Barkley here if were available. I don't think the pick would have been different...still would have been Ward.
5. Denver. No reason to be scared of these guys taking a QB....and not just becasue they signed Keenum....but consider they did sign him..to starter money. The coaching staff has been told publicly they have THIS YEAR to produce results. The Broncos still have a first round QB on the roster that Elway seems to have wiffed on, but he was supposed to be a 2-3 year project coming out. They re-upped their two WR. They are in win now mode with a coaching staff in win now mode...they simply aren't set up to draft their next QB...this staff isn't going to be around for that....they either win with Keenum or they are done and Denver will then go into rebuild mode. They will take the Guard from ND. Day one pro bowl starter at a position they need desperately. Rosen, Allen, Jackson...all on the board here...and they passed....and if Chubb hadn't been here, they would have traded out they said. They weren't ever in the QB market.
6. Colts. ...Buffalo could have offered them more than the Jets and I bet they did offer more....but as has been mentioned...Colts understand how this is playing out and at worst they will end up with the 3rd Best NON QB picking here. They will stay put. Yep.
7 bucs....another great NON QB player they like here. Barkley is my guess. I called the Bills trade up for Allen...I just didn't quite get the spot right..thought it would be at 9.
8. Bears. Spent heavily on offense in FA...take Davenport. Davenport went at 14...Bears went with very good and very safe Roquan Smith.
9. 49ers. This is where the action will be on draft night for Arizona, and Buffalo if they want something still on the QB board. I am guessing Josh Allen, Jackson and Mason Rudolph are what is left. Here is where the Bills move because Arizona will be trying to get up here too...and the Bills get Josh Allen. Again...i called the Bills to trade up for Allen...missed the pick by 2 spots.
Miami is not a threat to move up. They quietly restructured Tannehill a couple weeks ago...and parting ways with him will be cap hell the next 2 seasons. They also resigned David Fales... It can't be said with 100% certainty that they would have passed Rosen if he fall to them, but they certainly didn't make an effort to move up for him...took M Fitz...Tannehill is still their guy..and I think he always was going to be.
Watch out for San Diego and Pittsburg moving up to that 9 spot for Allen...and if they don't get that...both are major candidates to move around trying to get Rudolph. LOL....well Rudolph did end up in Pittsburg.
I do not think Jackson will go round 1. ....but he did....barely...so I was WRONG.
1. Darnold
2. Rosen
3 Mayfield
9. Allen (to Buffalo) Trade with 49ers Perhaps my best call of this whole thing...made a whole month out with everything in flux.
I will be taking a break from this place for a while...it's been great fun talking draft and QB's with all of you. This is my favorite place to come and talk football....can't emphasize enough the stark contrast of this place vs. other teams (including my own Chiefs) boards. Smart fans, who post well thought out topics and interesting comments. When the season starts, I'll be back again (if you'll have me) to see how Allen is doing, and of course to remind everyone how great Mahomes is every once in a while. I hope ultimately the trade is looked back upon by all parties as a good thing for everyone involved. I hadn't been a Bills fan before, but I'll be rooting for you on Sundays that you don't play the Chiefs and hoping that Allen turns into the QB you hope for and deserve. Best Regards.
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The sling it part is what matters. At minimum, the Bills have people in charge who understand that the team needed a QB. Everyone has their opinion of Allen. That’s fine. The important part is they knew they had to get a QB and they got one.
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I posted all over this board that I thought Rudolph would go in the first round....clearly you can count me among those that got that completely wrong.....so.....to offer some hope to the fans here who don't like Allen....you can all rest easier now knowing that I have been calling him a bust for months.
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I got to meet him on day one of the draft down on the floor. Awesome dude!
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We traded away the NFL's leading passer (a bad rating system, but its the one they use) who had led the team to back to back division titles, having thrown for over 4000 yards with only 5 INTs.....and he still had a year left on his contract for only 20 million (cheap for veteran good QB these days) ....and we traded him to so that we could start someone else. (Mahomes) ....They didn't just get rid of a good, winning, popular QB with a year left on his contract for the hell of it. ...but I understand...need to see something more before you are convinced....can't blame anyone for that....but the actions sure do speak loudly.
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I was fortunate enough to be on the floor for day 1 of the draft...I felt really bad for the Bills fans on the floor..they were seated up front right by the stage....Allen was of course attending and came out...having heard a few of them talking as they shuffled by on their way out....I didn't get the impression they were stoked...but kind of had to go along with the noise because it was all going down right there in front of them.
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Chiefs Get :
QB Pat Mahomes (R1 pick 10, 2017)
Bills Get:
CB Tre White (R1 pick 27, 2017)
Pick 91 (R3 pick 91, 2017) packaged with other picks for trade up to 37. Rams used pick on S John Johnson. Bills go to (R2 pick 37, 2017) and select WR Zay Jones.
Pick 21 (R1 pick 21, 2018) packaged with other picks for trade up to 16. Ravens traded out with Titans who used the pick on LB Rashaan Evans. Bills go to (R1 pick 16, 2018) and select LB Tremaine Edmunds.
Esentially, after it was all said and done, it was Mahomes for Tre White, Zay Jones and Tremaine Edmunds.
Thank you.
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Freaking Awesome! All moves, the trade last year, and you get Allen. CONGRATULATIONS!
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Possible the agent is behind this? Perhaps the Allen camp has gotten wind he is going to drop due to the accuracy issues and instead of having to own up to that major flaw being why, they can point to these juvenile tweets and say that Allen was the victom of overly worried teams trying to avoid controversy? Just a farfetched theory, but who knows. AS others have mentioned...any agent and management team worth their salt would have been all over this a long time ago.
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Might be useful to have a single post/thread where all the TWITTER rumors in these last 24 hours can be posted in one place. (I have nothing to put here, just want a consolidated place for twitter rumors as they come in) Add them here as you see them. THANKS.
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...(I didn't read this whole thread so probably repeating something here) .....to the original poster. Yes, the team has all of those needs. And every single one of those except QB can be readily found in later draft rounds, camp cuts from other teams, free agency...etc etc...the whole reason you expend more money, more time, more draft capital on QB is because planet earth contains about 15 guys who can actually competently man the QB position in the NFL. There are not many who can be NFL LB...but that number on planet earth is probably somewhere around 100 or 200. Same with Most of the other positions. The QB costs more because he is A) Not many people can do it and there is much more demand than supply and B) Asside from being a rare human...the position is HEAVILY weighted so that the impact of having someone who can perform makes much more difference than someone who can or can not perform at Inside LB for example. The same is true the other direction.....you can have the best ILB, OLB....K, P....G, C....bla bla bla...but the nature of QB is if he sucks..the others impact is severaly limited no matter how good they are.
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1 minute ago, Doc said:
Reid signed Jeremy Maclin to what amounted to a 2-year $25M deal back in 2015. Maclin barely eclipsed 1,000 yards his first season there and was released after the next season.
Alex Smith is a WR killer. If you don't run Jarvis Landy 5 yard slants...he isn't getting that ball to you deep unless you A) are wide open and B) He stayed in a pocket long enough to actually notice you are wide open.
Maclin wasn't a bad WR...he just wasn't going put up numbers with Smith. Watch the WR with the Redskins this year...you will see what I am talking about. Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson should both move up a couple rounds in your fantasy drafts because that is where Smith is going with the ball.
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I don't think Mariotta will ever be more than a middling starter....almost a curse...because he is good enough that you really don't need or want to go try and draft a replacement...but not the guy who really makes the roster around him better...needs a good roster around to make him better. .....You can throw Andy Dalton in that boat along with Tannehill. I'm willing to wait one more year on Winston...I think he is the more physically gifted of the two (he and Marriotta) I think there may be another step up to be made for him..we'll see.
As far as this relates to the Bills....I'd certainly be tempted to take Mariotta and leave the mystery prizes behind doors 1-6 in this draft alone....good/competent QB play is still way better than unknown draft pick QB most of the time.
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7 minutes ago, Yav said:
Think about what you just wrote.
The Bills drafted Watkins and it's been a fight about trading up to get him for years so the Bills traded him to LA where he didn't do much and KC then signs him and Andy Reid is the genius? Seriously? He just over paid for a WR that's consistently hurt and disappears for games at a time, buy yea he can judge talent. SMH
Yav....you are among the group of KC fans who do not like Ried. (that's fine, I'm not going to argue for or against your stance..he hasn't won in the playoffs..he is the coach..someone has to be accountable) For whatever you think of Ried...he has a LONG history of finding talent on offense and having teams with offenses that score a lot. Reid deserves all the ciritcism that comes his way for garbage clock managment and his failure thus far to do much with KC in the playoffs. I'd still defer to Reid on matters of offense and offensive talent.
That said....I do think 16 million per year for Sammy Watkins is damn steep to add a piece to what was already going to be a high scoring good offense. I think we (KC) would have been just fine with the group we had. I do think that Watkins will be a good addition IF the Chiefs turn into the 99 Rams (wich is what they are trying to do) ....If Watkins = 1999-2001 Isaac Bruce then the money will be worth it. That's hoping for quite a bit.
how is Josh Allen doing so far?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Hapless Bills Fan -
Last year, in some Chiefs facebook groups I post in, I was looking at the Sit Vs Start now debate raging about Mahomes at the time. A lot of people were just throwing it out there that Mahomes should sit because he was a rookie and needed to learn. No one...not armchair internet guys...not paid sportswriters....no one ever supports this with any data....they just throw it out there like it's a forgone conclusion that a rookie is better of sitting....but is that really the case? It's a tough question to answer because plenty of awful QB, never see a field because they are awful...and plenty of awful QB see the field because they are a high draft pick....so the best I could do was to take the STARTING QB's from the last 20 super bowls. This gave me a sample size of several long term starting QB who are considered to be good to elite for the most part. It also has a nice cross section of high first round picks, a few other round picks and an undrafted FA all in that grouping.
The idea was to check the QB rating for each of these QB's over the course of the first 16 games they started in the NFL. IF sitting was a benefit to a NFL superbowl caliber QB, you would think that among this group, those who sat signifigant time to start their career, would have a highter QB rating over their first 16 games started, having sat an learned, practiced more before starting out, etc etc.
What that data actually shows is that of that group of super bowl starting caliber QB, their QB rating over the course of their first 16 games was basically identical. the sit and learn group was actually a point or 2 lower in QB rating than the start from day one group. The most telling thing about the data to me was that the rating for these guys was almost the same on average for the their frist 16 games.
The data says that if a QB is going to be good/great, it is because he had the talent to begin with and that over the first 16 games of his career, he does NOT gain an advantage having sat. He learns to be an NFL QB at the same rate as the guy who started from day 1 by BEING ON THE FIELD AND PLAYING NFL GAMES...not reading playbooks, not studying film....not watching someone else do it.
......and then YES...I go against my own analysis for Josh Allen and strongly suggest that to ME...in my opinion....is the rare guy who probably would actually see tangible improvement by sitting a year to start with....I do not think that Wyoming prepared him for NFL football at all. (I frankly don't think he'll ever be that good) ...but playing behind a poor line, with poor talent around you, means you repeated over and over again...a lot of things that didn't prepare you to be a good NFL QB. If all your reps were running for your life, throwing to slow targets, then Allen would be a guy who would actually benefit from staying OFF an NFL field on game day until he has made real progress on the practice field. No one is saying he doesn't have the build, the arm, the brains....but he simply doesn't have anywhere near the QUALITY REPS most others got in college football to be ready. To be CLEAR....Wentz, Goff, even Mahomes....got A LOT more out of their time in college football than Allen did. He needs this year to get right.
I'm not convinced he'll ever be accurate enough for the NFL...I didn't think he'd ever be before the draft, and I still don't....what I am SURE about is that he shouldn't be thrown out on the field now. That wouldn't be fair to him...and it wouldn't be fair to you, the fans of the Bills to ruin this kid because he wasn't ready.
To summarize. Yes, I think if you believe a QB is the real deal, he needs to start....Yes, I think Allen needs to sit because he is the exception due to his unusual college career.
And lastly....Mahomes is going melt your faces off this year.