Shaw66

I've read the camp reports for three days now, and the best news I've heard is that Torrence moved into the right guard slot of Day 2 and survived at least well enough to be there again on Day 3 (and Bates started getting more work behind Morse). It wasn't a surprise that McGovern immediately slotted in at left guard, and his arrival almost certainly means the Bills have upgraded the line there. It's still early, but if Torrence already is showing that he's more capable than Bates on the right, it's really good news for the offensive line. Two guys who can competently man either side of Morse can mean a big change for Josh in the pocket and for the running backs. Morse does a good job, but he isn't the stoutest of centers, and having solid guys on either side allows the Bills to take advantage of his strengths rather than having his weakness exploited. I still have my concerned about Spencer Brown, as do many people, but if right tackle is the biggest problem across the line, I can live with that. Brown has the potential to be special, but If necessary, Doyle or Quessenbery or someone can be at least serviceable.

I'm not sure Davis ever could be a 75-catch, 1200 yard guy. I'd like to think he'd become Mike Evans, but I seriously doubt that's happening. Kincaid is the guy who could become that guy. That's why he went in the first round and Davis went in the fourth.

This is good stuff. Exactly. I'd throw in Isabella. I keep scratching my head about why they signed him. In part, it's becoming apparent that Beane always will go after speed. Maybe they see him running the jet sweep. But maybe they see him in the Beasley slot role. I don't know that anyone's tried him there much, and I haven't looked to see if he has the athleticism to play, but I think he has the quickness. But if you can have a guy look him running out of the slot on one play, threatening short and threatening deep, and you can have a guy like Kincaid in the slot on the next play, you're really testing the defense to match up. I think the Bills are trying out everyone in the slot - Kincaid, Harty, Sherfield, Shakir and now Isabella, to find a couple of guys who will be threats on short- and mid-range throws. And the real point about all of this is the threat as much as the actual production, because what the threat does is force the defense to get away from doubling Diggs. Remember Diggs?

This is a great point, and I need to be constantly reminded of it. (You forgot to mention Milano.) But I can still hope. The reason I can hope is that when you have a team as good as the Bills have, a guy with talent but not necessarily a future can flash for a half-season on more. KC's been having skill position players do that for a few years now. So a guy with, reportedly, high-end talent like Shorter might thrive under McDermott's leadership and in a system where he just has to be able to attack the holes in the defense that Josh, Cook, Diggs, and Kincaid create. That is, you don't have to be an eight-season keeper at the position - you just have to fill the need that a good offense creates. So, yes, you can't depend on low draft picks. But sometimes they rise to meet the need.

I just came back to this thread and I'm amused by the comments. People jumped all over transplant for the suggestion, even though he himself said it wasn't likely. And despite jumping on transplant, the discussion about Davis is pretty good and raises interesting points. I like the original post because it was creative without being stupid. Beane does things we don't expect, and transplant did a good job thinking about what kind of thing Beane might do with what he's looking at right now. There might be some other things, but the list is short. Corner #2 kind of looks like the receiver room - a lot of talent, but no one has taken the job yet. And you hate to trade corner talent. MLB, but really, you can't trade anyone there until you know what you have. Not trading Bates - he's your backup guard and center. With Nyheim gone, you're not trading a back. But Davis, at least you can make a case, especially with how well the receiver corps has looked so far in camp. I like the point Gunner, I think, made: If you want to make a Super Bowl run, you don't make yourself weaker by trading a guy for a pick when you're likely to lose the guy in free agency next year and get a comp pick for him. Why not use his talents, and if he has a big year, the comp pick might be better than you can now in a trade. Trade him for a player? Now, that might make more sense. Davis for a guy to replace Hines? That would make some sense. It doesn't look like the Bills have a quality speed back behind Cook, and that's a weakness. Finally, I'll. say what many people have said for the past few years: It's great, finally, to have training camp discussions here come down to hypotheticals like this. I mean, discussing whether Davis is a true #2 or not, and having that beat the hot discussion, or discussing whether Elam should the #2 corner with Jackson and Benford on board is a whole lot better than talking about why the GM didn't find a left tackle , or #1 receiver, or a #1 corner. I noticed it listening to Hyde's press conference. This is a team full of veterans whose every sentence is backed up by an unspoken thought: "We know how good we are. We aren't here talking about how this team is going to get to .500. There is only one objective and we all know we are this close to it." Great time to be a Bills fan.

I didn't say it was stacked with talent. I said it was stacked with "potential." I think Davis is better than you think, but I don't disagree. And yes, there would have to be a plan in place. The plan might be Shakir. The plan might be that Kincaid actually plays some wideout. But yes, they won't trade Davis unless they know what the starting group will look like. Not clear who that would be.

Who would give a third for a receiver as bad as you suggest?

That's a pretty creative idea. I like all the soft evidence you've given. There's a limit to how many big receivers you're gonna put on the field, and Knox and Kincaid both should see the field a lot. Hard to say what to think of Shorter at this point, but he has to be a long shot. The other point is that McBeane love speed, and it's been in short supply in Buffalo. The possibility of moving Davis makes the Isabella signing make more sense. Maybe they want a burner opposite Diggs, with Kincaid in the slot. Maybe they think Shakir can handle the load at #2, or maybe #2 will be receiver by committee. It is curious how stacked the receiver room is with guys who have potential. Interesting suggestion.

Well, my heart is with you, but it really is about, I hate to say it, complementary football. I think your point about time of possession isn't correct. The offense isn't on the field very long because it's a big-play offense. It moves the ball in big chunks, which means the Bills don't have the ball long before scoring. If he took the short, easy throws, the time of possession would go up. And as much as you (and I) talk about the bend-don't-break style of defense, that isn't really, correct, either. The Bills can't be at the top of the league year after year in yards allowed if they're bend-don't-break. BDB, by definition, gives up a lot of yards, and the Bills don't. The truth is, the Bills were 5th in first downs allowed by the defense, and they were seventh best in third-down conversions by the opponent. In other words, the defense stops the big play AND forces punts. I love the big defensive plays, too, but it's hard to argue with what the Bills do. Hard to argue, that is, until you get to the playoffs, where that style may not be the best. In the playoffs, you need some big plays.

I love this! I do. It's fabulous having Josh as the Bills QB, because his entertainment value is off the charts. But I want the Lombardi. He can be 5% less entertaining and 10% more effective, and I'll take that.

You missed the point. I wasn't saying Dane is better than Gardner. I was saying that McDermott requires his DBs to play the position in a particular way, and it isn't always apparent to the fans, including me, why a guy plays. Levi Wallace was a whipping boy around here for years, but he stayed in the lineup because he played the way McDermott wanted. What was perfectly clear last season was that Elam didn't play the zones the way he is supposed to. The reason Hyde and Poyer are so good is that they've internalized their assignments so well, that they always know what they're supposed to be doing AND what the other safety is doing. Elam didn't show that last season, and if he never learns it, he never will be a full time starter. White was a great cover guy when he came out of college, but the reason he started as a rookie was because he understood and executed his broader role. I hope Elam gets there, because I like his cover skills, but it's up to him.

As my thinking has evolved during the off-season, I've come around to what you're saying. It's heresy around here, I know, but I think the problem with the offense is not the weapons surrounding Josh, it's Josh. In particular, it's Josh's completion percentage. What makes for consistently good offense is getting positive yardage on every play. 0 yards on a play is bad, negative yards is worse. Josh has used the wrong thought process up until now. If you have a 60% chance of completing a pass for 20 yards, one would think that's a better option than the 90% chance for 10 yards, because on average you get 12 yards out of the 60% play and only 9 yards out of the 90% play, but I don't think that thinking is correct. The consequences of getting 0 yards on 40% of the longer throw is much worse than the extra yards gained on the 60%. It's better to get positive yardage virtually all the time, even if that positive yardage is less than you'd get on the longer throw. 0 yards on a play is a bad outcome. Josh needs an offense that gives him 2-3 quick reads for 5-7 yards, and he needs to take them. Save the downfield throws for the times when the chances of completing them are 80%, not 60%. The rest of the time, take the easy throw. Josh is 37 on the career completion percentage list, behind about 15 current QBs, including Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert, and Rodgers, to name a few. Retired names ahead of him included Peyton and Brees, Big Ben and Tom Brady, Steve Young and Kurt Warner. Josh doesn't complete enough passes, period. He has the best arm in the league, maybe even in the history of the league, but to date he hasn't had the best head. He needs to take and complete the easy throws.

This shows a significant lack of understanding. It's day two of training camp, and Torrence, a rookie, was starting with the ones. Edmunds started from day 1. Your characterization of McDermott is simply incorrect. And I continue to say that complaints about Dane are evidence that people don't understand the defense. Somebody posted data a month ago or so showing Sauce Gardiner gave less separation than any corner in the league in man and in zone. Dane gave up a lot of separation in zone and was middle of the pack in man. Why did Gardiner give up less separation in zone than Dane? Because he didn't know how to play the defense. In zone, you're supposed to leave your man as you read the keys. Sticking by you man when the play is going the other way is a bad move. Dane knows what he's doing, which is why he's on the field, and Elam hasn't learned that yet. I hope he does, because he has talent. And for those who say Elam outplayed Benford, I don't what you were watching. Benford was clearly better until he got injured. He was better because like Dane, he understood his role in the defense.

In McDermott’s world, NOTHING makes up for lack of scheme knowledge.

They moved up because their #2 corner had lousy man skills, and you can't play zone all the time.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38075863/aaron-rodgers-agrees-reworked-contract-jets

Lou Saban was a center for the Browns!

I don't expect anything else from him. That's what I like. But someone else writing a camp commentary might already be trying to tell us who looked good and who didn't, whether Dorsey looked like he was in control of the offense, all sorts of stuff that is opinion or wishful thinking or whatever. What I like about what astro does for his readers is just tell you what he saw.

Great stuff, as always. Just observations, but it gives a sense of what's going on. Thanks.

RAS difference is striking. Alli said was the description I quoted sounded like Knox. Seems he's different. Still, like you, I could see a role for him. For the Bills, he's just an experiment, like a lot free agents looking to catch on somewhere. We'll know in a few weeks.

I guess Chaos is still doing his research.

What's your basis for saying this? Can you name even 6 corners who will pass him in 2023?

Yes, it is. I believe Oliver was #8 among DTs when the deal was done, and he's already down to 12. Diggs is #4. Oliver was paid as a good, efficient DT, but not a star. Diggs got star money, so far as I can tell.

I agree. He seems to get beaten more often than a top cover should. Takes chances. Gunner is correct that we would get similar money if he hit free agency, but I think this continues Jerry Jones's pattern of caving to pay top money to guys who are just less top-players. I don't think he shows the discipline that a good GM shows.

I don't study the draft, so I had no idea who Sternberger was until I saw this thread. Having read the thread and the comments about how he sort blew up his career coming out of college, I think the Bills are thinking there's something else going on here. I think the Bills asked him, "Kid, have you rehabilitated yourself?" (apologies to Arlo). In fact, I think the Bills are already sure that he's a good bet. I say all the time that one thing you can tell about players in the draft is the quality of their physical skills. Guys taken in the first have outstanding talent, in the second, high-quality starter talent, in the third, starter talent. After that, guys are projects. Third round, Sternberger presumptively has starter talent. (He played some quarterback in high school, he was a star tight-end on an undefeated state championship team, and he was a power forward on the basketball team.) If the Bills were interested in him in the draft, then he passed the Bills' character screens - hard worker, team orientation, wants to learn, etc. In his college career, he bounced around. In his pro career, he got injured, had a substance abuse suspension (related to his recovery?), caught a playoff TD from Rodgers, got released by the Pack and bounced around, only to resurface as a standout in the USFL. Sounds very much like a guy who needed a reset. The Bills signing him suggests that they think he now is bringing to the game the kind of attitude that they value. Training camp and preseason will give him six weeks to demonstrate that he's now bringing the right focus to the game. He's still a project, but an interesting gamble. If he makes the roster, great. If he goes to the practice squad, he probably won't stay there, because other teams will recognize that the only reason he isn't on the roster is the Bills' depth at the position. If he gets cut, then we'll know he's just the latest in a long line of receivers who I, along with a lot of others, fell in love with who never went anywhere.