Shaw66

The flow of consistent dead money results from two things: Some mistakes and turnover in the front office. When you have four head coaches in six years, and three GMs, there are going to be changes, and changes created dead cap money. I think the Pegulas hired Beane and McDermott for the long term, and getting to the playoffs in 2017 makes them pretty secure for the next two years and probably three. If they drop a bundle on Cousins and he doesn't bust, the dead space will end, because there won't be a lot of other big contracts. Dareus and Watkins are gone, Clay and McCoy will have run out.

Don't get me wrong. I'd like to keep Cordy. I don't have a problem with him. And I don't need know if they need to move him in order to have room for Cousins. All I'm saying is that if the Bills want Cousins and if they need cap room, I don't think they'll have any problem deciding to move him. I don't think, for example, that Beane would agree with you that Cordy is a "steal" at that price. I think he'd tell you that difference between what he gives you and what a $3 million tackle gives you isn't worth $4 million. I think he'd tell you that their are only about five offensive tackles in the league he'd ever consider "steals" at some price; the rest of them aren't special enough to worry make them worth a premium over completely ordinary talent. I think he'd tell you he'd just as soon have a $35 million QB who's really good and have 52 guys worth $3 million a piece. I don't think he'd lose any sleep over losing Glenn.

I think you're missing the point. They won't replace him in free agency. They'll replace him the draft, and it'll cost WAY less than $5 million. First, you have to ask "replace what?" He barely played last season, and the Bills went to the playoffs. Glenn leaving doesn't leave anything like the gaping hole Wood does, who played every snap last season. Whatever cap saving they get on Glenn is found money. Second, they were going to be drafting linemen already, so their plans don't change much if they lose Glenn. Third, if they write a big check to get Cousins, that's a long-term move. If they're squeezed for cap space in 2018, that doesn't matter so much. THey're fine in 2019 and beyond. I don't see the problem. I can't imagine it going beyond $30. But as I said, I think he'll be the highest paid in the league, so that'll put him over $25. If you want a top 10 QB, he's the only one who's even arguably there and available. I'd expect five serious buyers, a couple dropping out along the way. That's going to push the price.

I think in six months Cousins will be the highest paid player in the league. It's always worked that way - become a free agent at the right time. The Pegulas have already shown us once that they aren't afraid to pay what it takes. They paid $1.2 billion for a franchise that almost everyone agreed wasn't worth more than $1 billion. Any team that has a serious interest in the guy, any team that really wants him, goes into the auction knowing he's going to pay a price that looks unreasonably high. The Bills have shown pretty good discipline when their players have become free agents. Byrd, Gilmore, etc. - the Bills have let them walk when the Price got too high. QB is the most important position on the team. If you see a good one, you have to expect to pay more for him than seems right. We'll see.

That's the conclusion I've come to. These guys love picks, so if they like Cousins they sign him, unload Taylor and if necessary Glenn to give them enough cap room, draft a lot of talent this year, live through limited cap space this year, and then plug remaining holes in 2019. It seems to be the lowest risk way to go.

I really think people need to look at what Beane and McD are doing. They unloaded some of the best talent, by far, on the team - Gilmore, Watkins, Darby, Dareus, Woods. They aren't afraid to let players walk. It seems clear that they are operating very much in the Belichick model - get a lot of low priced players and teach them. When they write a big check, it's for a Hogan or Gillislee, a check that isn't too hard to swallow if the guy doesn't work out. The only place where they spend consistently is on shut down corners. I have no illusions about Glenn being protected. McDermott will coach the players he has, and he's happy to do that.

We'll see, but I think this regime is very much in the Belichick model. I think their view is that four players for $4 million each are always better than one player for $12 million. I think if the Bills want Cousins and can save $10 million in cap space moving Glenn, it's happening.

Hi Thurm. Good to hear from you. First, I love Patsian and Packian. Great words!!! Second, you've gotten quite animated about Taylor, when he is at best remotely related to this thread. But since you're on the subject, I've gotta say that if your cap numbers are correct, and I have no reason to think they aren't, then I agree completely that they need to cut him. It seems completely clear that he isn't McDermott's guy for the future. If it' costs $18 million in cap space to keep him and $8 to cut him, cut him or trade him and use the cap room to acquire the QB you want long term, if there is one. But if all you're acquiring is a guy who's one or two year bridge, and if you have to pay that guy $10 million per, you haven't saved anything. Taylor can be your bridge at $10 million a year just as easily as some other guy. But as I said, that's beside the point. The Patsian/Packsian point is the point. Dollar cost is clearly a part of the decision tree, but I talked about it more in terms of whether he's worth it rather than the question of institutional stinginess. We haven't seen this new regime to know whether they'd be willing to open their wallets for a big-time contract, so we don't know. However, the Patsian/Packian reference doesn't establish anything. The Packers did write a big check to keep Rodgers - he has the fifth highest average salary among QBs. Brady is lower, but even he is at $20 million. We don't know how much the Pats would have paid Brady if he'd insisted on what he's worth. He willingly gave up dollars to help the Pats acquire other talent. Not saying the Bills would break the bank for anyone. Just saying I don't think we know what their attitude is about such things.

I wrote about this in another thread. I think Wood retiring increases the likelihood that the Bills sign a free agent QB. The retirement creates one more hole to fill. The cheapest talent is in the draft and undrafted free agents, and when you need a lot of talent, you look for cheap talent. If you mean does it affect what Cousins is thinking, I think it does but not enough to change his mind. Cousins is looking for the right situation long-term, not immediately. He won't want to change teams again. So it's much more important to him to land with the right coach and GM; if they're right, personnel issues will be dealt with soon enough.

I don't think you get who Cousins is. He will go to the place he thinks is the best fit for him. Money won't be the deciding factor, as long as it's enough money to satisfy him. He will think about this like Brady does. He wants to win, and that trumps the money.

Yours is a point of view, but I don't think it's Beane's point of view. I think he's all about rookies and low-priced free agents. So I don't think he thinks that paying the premium for Cousins is "too much." Of course, I don't know, but that's what I think is going on. Plus, if they think he's the guy, he's the guy for the next 6-8 years, and the cap hell that might result from signing him lasts only one year. My understanding is that in 2019 there's plenty of cap room. I don't think Beane will be afraid of the price tag. I think the whole question is whether the Bills think he's the guy.

Absolutely. My point is that people who think that the Bills can't compete for him are incorrect. He may go to any of several teams for any of several reasons, but the Bills have as good a shot as any.

Of course, no one knows for sure, but I think this is correct.

Thanks. I hadn't seen that. I read a different, longer article about him that convinced me of the same things. People really should read this article, or find other like it, and you'll see what we're talking about. This guy's view about the game is EXACTLY like McD's. The guy has an office, a little cubby hole, at the Redskins training facility where he can keep his notebooks and computer and study during his free time.

Someone here a few days ago said he went to some website where you can do your own modeling, using all the actual contract data and showed there's room to do it. I really don't think money would keep the deal from getting done. The Bills can find the way to pay what it takes to get him if they want him.

The difference between Kirk Cousins and Mario Williams is night and day. Williiams was all about the money. Cousins is all about the process, winning and being the best he can be. I really think Cousins may prefer Buffalo to EVERY other team because McDermott is his football soulmate. It's all about process, study, improvement. Heard that before? In his mind, the only better place than Buffalo would be playing for Belichick. Cousins was born and raised and went to college in the midwest. Buffalo would be like coming home, not going to Siberia. Cousins is going to go to the place that feels right to him, so long as the money is in the ball park. Buffalo can compete under those rules.

I'm on board. I think many people are missing what a good fit Cousins is for McDermott's philosophy. I think the OP hits the nail on the head - if the Bills are drafting a QB, they're looking for a guy like Cousins. Why would Cousins sign with Buffalo? Because HE sees what a good fit he is for the McD's philosophy. They mesh perfectly. You don't think the Bills would spend the money? Why not? Because they haven't in the past? Well, too things about that: 1. By the past, you mean under Mr. Wilson. The Pegulas have had NO PROBLEM spending money, on the stadium, on head coaches, on whatever they think is necessary. And 2. they spent the money to get Mario Williams. Didn't work out so well, but the organization, under Mr. Wilson spent the money when they thought it was the right thing to do. If McDermott is sold on the guy, money is not going to be a problem.

Must be a guy McD had his eye on but couldn't get last season. Has to be an upgrade in McD's mind.

I just got done watching this video and reading the article, and then I saw your post. http://winning.jwmi.com/bill-belichick-leadership-rules-football/ It's 15 or 20 minutes of Belichick being interviewed about coaching. It's fascinating. I'm totally on board with you. For the past year it's become clearer and clearer that it's about the coach much, much more than about the players. It's clear when you listen to Belichick. It's clear when you notice that, except for quarterbacks, the best players aren't winning more than the average players. I do think quarterback is different. Yes, he matters less than the coach, but he's the one player who really matters. I know, duh. But that's why I wrote what I did. I think there's a lot of work that goes into getting the right guy. If you find the guy who you think is the right guy, you pay whatever it takes to get him. Not true for any other position, but it's true at QB. If you think he's the guy, you pay him and don't worry about it. I think it's Cousins. And I think it's foolish to say he isn't worth what he will get. It isn't about Cousins alone. It's about whether he's the kind of QB that will succeed in a well-run football organization. I think that because I think Belichick is McDermott's role model, and one of the things Belichick says in the video is that the thing that he values most is dependability. He wants guys who are dependable, guys who come to work every day, study, work hard and then do what they've practiced. It's a very military approach. Belichick says his first season at the Patriots a first round pick showed up late for one of the first meetings, and Belichick was incredulous. He looked at the guy and asked "what are you doing?" What he meant was "we have jobs to do, every day, and you're not doing your job." Dependable. That's Cousins. Belichick says Brady isn't the most talented athlete to play QB, but he's smart, works really hard. He dependable. And he keeps improving. That's Cousins. Belichick talks about his players' personal lives, how important it is for them to know each other and care about each other. They have team nights out, trivia contests, all of that, because Belichick wants them to know each other, to know about their families. They don't have to like each other, but they have see each other as human beings. To Belichick, their personal lives are important. McDermott too. Cousins gets all of that and can be the leader of a team that has core values like that. This is a total guess, but I'd guess that McDermott thinks Cousins is exactly what McDermott wants, because for McDermott it's about working hard, learning and dependability. That's Cousins.

Sorry, it was 5 of 6 in the NFC.

Interesting. I hadn't thought about it, but I think you're right, that they won't give up picks. They have a system and a plan, and they have the discipline to stick to it. And I think they're confident the Pegulas will give them the time to do what they think is necessary. Having a winning season and making the playoffs secured that confidence. My sense of them, however, is that they would be willing to write a big check if there was a free agent QB they wanted. They'll be patient building at all the other positions, trusting their system. Can't be patient at QB, because the right QB, say a top 10 QB doesn't come along very often. So, yeah, we won't see any picks get traded to move up for any other position, and probably no big picks for a QB, either. That says to me they will be aggressive buyers in the free agent market. Just a guess.

Fair enough. It's what I was thinking about, and to clarify my thoughts I wrote. Once I wrote it, I figured I'd post. My guess was that most people would react like you, but it seems like some people liked it. I'm okay either way.

I've gotten to the point where I don't think this is a consideration. Five out of six AFC teams in the playoffs this season weren't in the playoffs last season. Teams turn over 25-35% of their rosters every year. The Rams went from nowhere to the playoffs in a year. Other than the Patriots, there are no dynasties. So if you're a QB under 30, you don't care all that much about how "close" the team is. I think the agents are telling them to look for a team with the right environment, the desire to improve, quality management, etc. And if you're a GM, you're expecting to be only a year away. (Unless you work for the Browns.)

"not a crazy buyer." In this realm, crazy is in the eye of the beholder. If they make a big free agent move, there definitely will be some folks complaining that they paid too much. Maybe me. If they trade up, there will be people complaining they gave up too much, or took the wrong guy. Hard to know what's crazy. If they trade two first round picks for Luck, crazy will be determined by how Luck plays over the next five years. Peyton's the only one.

Tolstoy, indeed! Gotta have some fun with this stuff. Interesting comments. I think you're right about the springtime. Just watching what Minnesota does will be fascinating. Once they act, the wheels will be turning in a dozen NFL team offices. And the draft seems to have several promising QB prospects, but a GM who bets the ranch on any one of them is also betting his job. Every one of the QBs in the draft could crash and burn. I don't agree that QBs will be looking long and hard at olines. I think the free agent QBs know the score: very few teams have good olines, and the quality of the line on most teams changes dramatically from year to year. Cousins will be looking for a six-year deal, and he'll be much more interesting in who the coach and GM is, because that's who's going to solve the oline problem, if there is one. Bradford and Bridgewater would be looking for big deals, too. Maybe even Keenum. Foles right now probably wishes he'd taken a one-year deal in Philadelphia. I really think the big question is what is happening to the league? I just wonder if a Peyton Manning makes his team a contender by his presence alone on a 2020 team like the real Peyton did in 2010. The game is changing, and as it changes, the difference in value between a Manning and a Matt Ryan may be shrinking. I think you're right. Not just scouting, but a commitment to actually taking one. Not every year, but no less than every three years. The Packers did it for years, the Pats have done it for over a decade. Take one, groom him, let him go or trade him. Just keep doing it. Heck, the Pats spent a pick on Brady when they had Bledsoe, who was going to play at a high level for five or seven more years.