Shaw66

He's not an unrestricted free agent until the period ends for the Redskins to franchise him. I think that's early March. Until then, he is exclusively Washington property. As others have said, he only can talk to other teams if the Redskins gave him permission, which may have happened. However, it's interesting that if Washington gave him permission, say, a week ago, that that information didn't leak out.

I would also expect Cousins to do his search more deliberately than this. Washington didn't tell him to look for a deal until they locked up Smith, at least I wouldn't think so, so that means Cousins made a decision really fast. Maybe he knew all along.

Thanks. Those are both good points. But can he get traded if he isn't under contract for 2018? He isn't under contract until he's franchised and he's signed. It may be true, but it seems kind of odd in this situation.

I don't get it. Did the Redskins cut Cousins? If not, he can't be talking to Denver; it violates his contract with Washington. It's tampering. And if they DID cut him, doesn't Denver talking to him violate the free agency rules? What am I missing?

Look, are we having a conversation, or are you just arguing because you like to argue? Yes, Kelly wasn't committed to Buffalo and it worked out okay. But the Bills OWNED THE RIGHTS to Kelly, and if Kelly wanted to play in the NFL he HAD to play in Buffalo. If he had been a free agent, he never would have signed in Buffalo. Cousins is completely different. He IS or will be a free agent, so the fact that he doesn't feel a commitment to Washington is a big deal. I don't care if you lived in the midwest and didn't like it. You aren't on the shortlist of QBs the Bills are interested in. Cousins is the one who matters, and he's a down-to-earth, hard-working midwest boy. Born there, raised there, went to high school and college there. I'm guessing he doesn't like the east. And, as someone else pointed out, the Redskins didn't exactly show him a lot of love when they talked contract. You asked me how can he be that good if Washington is giving up on him, and I answered - because he doesn't want to be there, not because Washington doesn't want him. Your response? Why is Washington giving up on him? Come up with something better.

You have to read other things I've written at length. First, there's no way Cousins isn't better than Taylor. He's a pocket passer with enough mobility as a guy needs these days. His numbers have been significantly better than Taylor's for three years. His three-year numbers are top 10 in the league. Second, he fits the McDermott philosophy. He's smart, hard working, believes that winning is a process and he's personally dedicated to process. He's the kind of guy who in a system with five-year continuity will get better each year, because he learns more and more. Washington is dumping him because he doesn't want to be there. They mismanaged their relationship with him, and I suspect he's told them he'll listen to their offer but he's certainly going to listen to others. Translation: if your offer isn't the very best, I'm leaving for someplace that suits me better. I don't know any of that, but that's my sense. He's a hard-working midwest guy who isn't at home in east coast bull ****. I think he wants out. So it's not so much that Washington doesn't want him, but they aren't willing to invest in a guy who isn't committed to them.

I don't think that McB will be regular big spenders in free agency. I think they want to grow their own talent by getting players in the draft, undrafted rookies, guys off practice squads. Hyde's about as high as I expect them to go for free agents. I expect their free agent spending will be on role players. Except QB. They might spend big on a QB. So that makes me think that they don't need to blow up the roster except to the extent that they need cap room to buy a QB, if they go that route. You certainly don't want to unload serviceable players to create cap room that you don't really want to use. And that then makes me think that they're not unloading guys whose cap savings are under $4 million. Why move a guy who's useful to you if you don't need the room. Seems to me Taylor, Glenn and Clay are the guys who are at risk.

It looks exactly the same to me. I'm going to have to make a big bet somewhere, and I think Cousins is the best bet.

I don't think so. I don't think Smith is any better Cousins, and I don't think he plays the style that McB wants, although admittedly no one knows for sure what they want. If you believe they like Peterman's style of play, Cousins is a good Peterman, and Smith is a good Taylor. Plus, Smith won't want to be someone's bridge to a bright young rookie. That's what he was in KC this year. He'll want a quick ride to the top. If Minnesota really is in the market, Smith is perfect for them, and they're perfect for him. Plus, Smith costs $20 million for 2018, which means you're eating more cap room than if you just keep Taylor. Granted, Smith is a better QB, by why spend $20 million to get someone who isn't your future. I don't see these guys using a bandaid approach.

I think this is seriously wrong. There aren't enough to go around. When you find one that you think is the right guy, you pay him what it costs, and you don't pass on him because you think it costs too much. If you cheap out at QB, you get a cheap QB, and he's not taking you anywhere.

And Carolina wrote a big check for Cam, while they both were there. I know all three QBs were already on the team, and that made less risky than a free agent, but the point is that if those teams are McBeane's models, all three have spent big bucks on QBs. (By the way, as a complete aside, I believe Kraft and Brady have a handshake deal that Brady is going to get paid some big dollars after he retires, doing public appearances or bein a consultant or something. Wait and see.) So I'm not going to be surprised if they write a big check for a free agent. They know what QBs cost. As for Taylor, I hear you, but I don't think the total dollars are what matter. It's the 2018 cap hit. 2019 they can afford the hit. I'm betting the Bills will be serious contenders for Cousins, or maybe Bridgewater or possibly Bradford. I don't think they'll have any interest in trading up, and I don't think they'll like the uncertainty of pinning the next two or three years on an unproven rookie taken in the first or second round, along with a guy who is placeholder. I think McBeane are actively building, and they'll want their QB of the future on board in 2018 if they can get him So I'm expecting they'll write a big check to someone.

Do you think the Jets are in a better position going forward than the Bills? I'd call them about even, but I don't really know. My guess is the Cousins doesn't like living in DC and wouldn't like NYC. My guess is he'd like to get back to the midwest. Really depends on whether they fall in love with anyone. If they fall in love with Cousins, they pay a fortune and get him. Fall in love with Darnold, pay a fortune in picks to move up. Anyone's guess.

The flow of consistent dead money results from two things: Some mistakes and turnover in the front office. When you have four head coaches in six years, and three GMs, there are going to be changes, and changes created dead cap money. I think the Pegulas hired Beane and McDermott for the long term, and getting to the playoffs in 2017 makes them pretty secure for the next two years and probably three. If they drop a bundle on Cousins and he doesn't bust, the dead space will end, because there won't be a lot of other big contracts. Dareus and Watkins are gone, Clay and McCoy will have run out.

Don't get me wrong. I'd like to keep Cordy. I don't have a problem with him. And I don't need know if they need to move him in order to have room for Cousins. All I'm saying is that if the Bills want Cousins and if they need cap room, I don't think they'll have any problem deciding to move him. I don't think, for example, that Beane would agree with you that Cordy is a "steal" at that price. I think he'd tell you that difference between what he gives you and what a $3 million tackle gives you isn't worth $4 million. I think he'd tell you that their are only about five offensive tackles in the league he'd ever consider "steals" at some price; the rest of them aren't special enough to worry make them worth a premium over completely ordinary talent. I think he'd tell you he'd just as soon have a $35 million QB who's really good and have 52 guys worth $3 million a piece. I don't think he'd lose any sleep over losing Glenn.

I think you're missing the point. They won't replace him in free agency. They'll replace him the draft, and it'll cost WAY less than $5 million. First, you have to ask "replace what?" He barely played last season, and the Bills went to the playoffs. Glenn leaving doesn't leave anything like the gaping hole Wood does, who played every snap last season. Whatever cap saving they get on Glenn is found money. Second, they were going to be drafting linemen already, so their plans don't change much if they lose Glenn. Third, if they write a big check to get Cousins, that's a long-term move. If they're squeezed for cap space in 2018, that doesn't matter so much. THey're fine in 2019 and beyond. I don't see the problem. I can't imagine it going beyond $30. But as I said, I think he'll be the highest paid in the league, so that'll put him over $25. If you want a top 10 QB, he's the only one who's even arguably there and available. I'd expect five serious buyers, a couple dropping out along the way. That's going to push the price.

I think in six months Cousins will be the highest paid player in the league. It's always worked that way - become a free agent at the right time. The Pegulas have already shown us once that they aren't afraid to pay what it takes. They paid $1.2 billion for a franchise that almost everyone agreed wasn't worth more than $1 billion. Any team that has a serious interest in the guy, any team that really wants him, goes into the auction knowing he's going to pay a price that looks unreasonably high. The Bills have shown pretty good discipline when their players have become free agents. Byrd, Gilmore, etc. - the Bills have let them walk when the Price got too high. QB is the most important position on the team. If you see a good one, you have to expect to pay more for him than seems right. We'll see.

That's the conclusion I've come to. These guys love picks, so if they like Cousins they sign him, unload Taylor and if necessary Glenn to give them enough cap room, draft a lot of talent this year, live through limited cap space this year, and then plug remaining holes in 2019. It seems to be the lowest risk way to go.

I really think people need to look at what Beane and McD are doing. They unloaded some of the best talent, by far, on the team - Gilmore, Watkins, Darby, Dareus, Woods. They aren't afraid to let players walk. It seems clear that they are operating very much in the Belichick model - get a lot of low priced players and teach them. When they write a big check, it's for a Hogan or Gillislee, a check that isn't too hard to swallow if the guy doesn't work out. The only place where they spend consistently is on shut down corners. I have no illusions about Glenn being protected. McDermott will coach the players he has, and he's happy to do that.

We'll see, but I think this regime is very much in the Belichick model. I think their view is that four players for $4 million each are always better than one player for $12 million. I think if the Bills want Cousins and can save $10 million in cap space moving Glenn, it's happening.

Hi Thurm. Good to hear from you. First, I love Patsian and Packian. Great words!!! Second, you've gotten quite animated about Taylor, when he is at best remotely related to this thread. But since you're on the subject, I've gotta say that if your cap numbers are correct, and I have no reason to think they aren't, then I agree completely that they need to cut him. It seems completely clear that he isn't McDermott's guy for the future. If it' costs $18 million in cap space to keep him and $8 to cut him, cut him or trade him and use the cap room to acquire the QB you want long term, if there is one. But if all you're acquiring is a guy who's one or two year bridge, and if you have to pay that guy $10 million per, you haven't saved anything. Taylor can be your bridge at $10 million a year just as easily as some other guy. But as I said, that's beside the point. The Patsian/Packsian point is the point. Dollar cost is clearly a part of the decision tree, but I talked about it more in terms of whether he's worth it rather than the question of institutional stinginess. We haven't seen this new regime to know whether they'd be willing to open their wallets for a big-time contract, so we don't know. However, the Patsian/Packian reference doesn't establish anything. The Packers did write a big check to keep Rodgers - he has the fifth highest average salary among QBs. Brady is lower, but even he is at $20 million. We don't know how much the Pats would have paid Brady if he'd insisted on what he's worth. He willingly gave up dollars to help the Pats acquire other talent. Not saying the Bills would break the bank for anyone. Just saying I don't think we know what their attitude is about such things.

I wrote about this in another thread. I think Wood retiring increases the likelihood that the Bills sign a free agent QB. The retirement creates one more hole to fill. The cheapest talent is in the draft and undrafted free agents, and when you need a lot of talent, you look for cheap talent. If you mean does it affect what Cousins is thinking, I think it does but not enough to change his mind. Cousins is looking for the right situation long-term, not immediately. He won't want to change teams again. So it's much more important to him to land with the right coach and GM; if they're right, personnel issues will be dealt with soon enough.

I don't think you get who Cousins is. He will go to the place he thinks is the best fit for him. Money won't be the deciding factor, as long as it's enough money to satisfy him. He will think about this like Brady does. He wants to win, and that trumps the money.

Yours is a point of view, but I don't think it's Beane's point of view. I think he's all about rookies and low-priced free agents. So I don't think he thinks that paying the premium for Cousins is "too much." Of course, I don't know, but that's what I think is going on. Plus, if they think he's the guy, he's the guy for the next 6-8 years, and the cap hell that might result from signing him lasts only one year. My understanding is that in 2019 there's plenty of cap room. I don't think Beane will be afraid of the price tag. I think the whole question is whether the Bills think he's the guy.

Absolutely. My point is that people who think that the Bills can't compete for him are incorrect. He may go to any of several teams for any of several reasons, but the Bills have as good a shot as any.

Of course, no one knows for sure, but I think this is correct.