Shaw66

I don't agree that there's a talent imbalance. Torrence, Cook, Kincaid in the past three years. But I definitely agree about the long hard look. I just quoted a bit, but the whole post was excellent. Thanks.

I've suggested moving Johnson before. People bash me about it. I like it because safety is a more important position. It requires tackling ability, coverage skills and brains. That's Johnson. It's easier to find a slot corner than a safety. It's been a luxury to have him in that position. If he moves, then the Bills need a new slot corner or they go 4-3. I think Johnson would be a great safety.

I think McDermott wants to get Dorian Williams into the lineup with Bernard and Milano and attack from the second tiernof the defense. I still think we'll see Taron Johnson at safety and more 4-3.

I don't think so. One thing I like about Beane is he values first-round talent, and he likes to trade up to get it. Especially because he has a lot of draft capital, I expect he'll go up a few picks to get someone.

And this problem you describe is my biggest criticism about how McBeane choose personnel. They keep getting guys who do everything, like Rousseau and Oliver, but they aren't dominant playmakers. The dominant playmakers are the difference makers in the playoffs. Maybe with Milano and Miller (the pre-injury Miller) the Bills would have had the right guys. A roster dull of guys who just execute the system works in the regular season but has trouble in the playoffs, because the offenses are effective and can exploit otherwise minor weaknesses.

Thanks. I'm not sure we were talking past each other. I've enjoyed it, getting to understand your perspective about this. You haven't convinced me about philosophy, and I haven't convinced you, but that's okay. Your points about the draft make a lot of sense. I don't know the players in the draft, but I get your point. Bills needed a guard last year, but it wasn't a first-round move. Second round was the place to find a guard, and they did. If it's a second-round center this year, that's great. I really wasn't talking about what the Bills should be doing in the draft as talking about what the team needs. I don't think the Bills need a Tee Higgins to round out the receiver room. If they get a first-round receiver, it's a good move because in a year or two he'll replace Diggs, and he'll help this year, but I don't think the team needs a Tee Higgins to get the receiver room to the right level of talent. I think for 2024 a talent like that may be nice, but it's probably overkill. You don't think it's overkill. Got it.

I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant. What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January: Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score. Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s. That's how most games go. To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it. Offense did its part, but the defense didn't. It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team. The defenses are two good. Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model. You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't. Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line. They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better. He's a more effective threat. They need a center. Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center. I don't know who's out there. And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations. All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way. The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him. Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs. It's not about more weapons. It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. It's funny to me , because I agree with the first three paragraphs, in that I can understand what you're saying. I don't know that it's right, but it makes sense. I get, for example, that a big X might make it an exceptional receiver corps. I don't know if that's true. But I also get that a talented OC can figure out how to make different combinations work, so I don't know that a big X is the only solution. Why it's funny is I pretty much completely disagree with the last three paragraphs. I think a violent, highly talented defense is essential to winning the post-season, and the Bills need real help in that regard. So, I see defense as a greater need. I also don't think that trying to out-offense the whole league is the way to win. Somebody always stops offense. It's not a sustainable philosophy for winning. Defense is. And I seriously don't believe the surround-Allen-with-talent thing. He needs to be surrounded with enough talent; when he has enough talent, more talent doesn't make him better. The question is whether the Bills have the right talent and the right coordinator. The wrong coordinator, and it simply doesn't matter how much talent they put around Allen.

Well, positional value is important, but I think you're greatly overvaluing the wide receiver position. I think wideouts aren't much more valuable than running backs. What? First, look at the Chiefs. Kelce at 93 receptions, Rice at 79, and Pacheco at 44. They weren't exactly stacked with receivers putting up gaudy numbers. Then look at the Lions. St Brown. LaPorta, Gibbs. The NFL just isn't about flashy wideout tandems. Now, think about what you're saying about the draft, about how deep it is at receiver. It's true about the league in genreal - there are good recivers who make plays all over the league. Samuel, for example. There are a lot of good, athletic, fast players. The league is much about getting a nice collection of those guys and designing an effective offense that they execute. And that's what people have been saying here about the Bills. Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid in a well designed passing attack are a tough group to defend - as tough as any in the league. Solid route runners, good hands, good speed, good run after catch. So, for the Bills in the draft, wide out has pretty low positional value. A center or a safety is much more important to the 2024 Bills. Now, the Bills will need a new #1 wideout, so I agree that the long-term value of the position is greater than the short-term value, but the Bills have some time to find the new #1. Beane always seems to make the move he needs to get the guy he wants, and I'm sure he'll make his move for a receiver when it makes sense. So, as much as you'd like a receiver in the first round, and I'd be happy with one, I think the notion that that position, particularly now, is not of significant value to this team right now. If you're going to talk about positional value, Beane should go in a different direction.

I'm not sure they need another quality guy for 2024, but I won't argue the point. You may be right. And I certainly won't object if a quality starter shows up in the draft. And I completely agree about the comparison with Shakir. With Diggs and Samuel on the field, Shakir will see more open space to work in. Samuel will make Shakir better, not vice versa.

I agree, but I think thebholes are fillable. Safety is my biggest concern. Difference maker might come out of the draft. Might not.

I agree with Transplant, in part for a different reason. I think most fans over emphasize player talent and under emphasize coaching. In terms of team play, the Bills are one of the best coached teams in the league. It's coaching that puts them in the top five in the league. Debating number 2 or 3 receivers makes little sense. Those guys are interchangeable and all will give you more or less the same production. Samuel has different strengths and weaknesses fro. Davis, but their contributions will be about the same. With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook there's more than enough talent for thw passing game. It's up to Brady. In fact, across the whole lineup, most players are interchangeable. The talent in the league is really high, and one backup DT is more or less the same as the next. You just need your share of playmakers. Allen alone puts the Bills ahead of most teams when it comes to playmakers, and Diggs and Milano are in that category. Bernard, Miller, maybe Kincaid. Maybe the first round pick. If Beane does a good job, he will get a starter in round 1. If it's a wideout, even better for the passing game. If it's an edge, great. Safety? Great. Center? Great. McDermott doesn't make predictions, but he will be disappointed if the Bills win fewer than 12 games.

All of this makes sense to me. I liked Davis's size, and the Bills lost that, but they play so much with two tight ends that I think they have the size covered. Diggs, Knox, and Kincaid is enough in red zone, and Shakir or Samuel can be Beasley. And I agree, a receiver in the first two rounds would make for a formidable receiver room.

I just clicked in to see what people were saying about Samuel. I don't know the league personnel very well, and I have no real opinion about Samuel as a player. I'm sure I've seen him, but I don't remember any play he's ever made. However, my opinion about the signing, as soon as I looked at his career stats, was what you said (in bold) above. This is a veteran receiver with physical skills (second round pick}. He has a lot of playing time. He must know the game. What I'm hoping for, and expecting, out of Brady is some sophisticated route designs that attack weaknesses in defenses from week to week. What those play designs require is smart receivers, guys who can read defenses and adapt. I think Diggs is one of those, and I think Shakir is one. Kincaid looks like one, and Knox isn't bad either. I think Samuel is one. And I think this is exactly the kind of guy that Reid likes on his team, a guy who can execute schemes with speed and who can catch the ball. I don't know Xs from Ys and slot guys and all that, but I don't think the physical differences in guys is what matters in those positions. I think the modern passing game is largely about attacking the weaknesses in the defense, and that takes brains, not physique. I like this signing. And I don't think it means the Bills won't take a receiver in the first round. What Samuel does is eliminate the NEED to go receiver early. It gives Beane flexibility in the draft. And I'll go back to the point Transplant made in his thread. This team is getting better. Dodson, Settle, Jackson are losses, but they can be and will be replaced. There'll still be some talent signed in free agency, and the draft will help. I like this team.

That's because the Giants didn't have any productive receivers. He was a starter on that team, and never would have sniffed a staring spot with the Bills.

Well, Transplant, I've gotta agree with you. I mean, it isn't a sure thing, but I think that a lot of people around here, if they're honest with themselves in December, are going to realize that they were too pessimistic. I won't rehash all that you said, but I do want to comment on a few things. First, the thing that has me worried the most are the safeties. The safeties play a really important role in this defense, and Poyer and Hyde were a magnificent combination. They were better than the sum of their parts, and I worry that they won't be replaced easily. Rapp didn't impress me the way Poyer and Hyde did; maybe he'll be better in his second year in the system, but he'll only be better if he has a good running mate back there. Whoever it is, it's not likely that they'll develop in one season the chemistry that Poyer and Hyde had. I hope I'm wrong, but that's the position that I think can hold back the progress of the team. You didn't say much about the draft because, of course, we have no idea who's coming and what positions they'll play. I agree that Beane will use his excess picks to move up; I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with only 7 picks. What you didn't say, exactly, is that the Bills will add at least two, maybe 3, possibly 4 starters in the draft. Not starters in September, but significant contributors by December. First round guy is almost certainly going to play - Beane seems to have missed on Elam, but it isn't likely to happen again. We saw what Kincaid added by December last season, and if the Bills take a receiver, we can expect more of the same. Second round, last season the Bills got a starter who moved in right away, and the season before they got Cook, who by December had taken Motor's starting slot, effectively. A third or fourth round corner or safety easily could be playing later in the season. The point is, the Bills will be better because they're going to get some serious help at three or four positions. Someone said the starting center isn't on the team yet, and I agree with that. But if he is on the team, I have a lot of confidence that Beane and Kromer know what they're doing. I agree about Miller. Gunner says he's done, and Gunner's right a lot of the time, but I think it takes more than a year to recover from that injury, really recover. Finally, like you, I have a lot of confidence in Brady. I think the offense is going to hum like we haven't seen in a few years. I agree that Diggs almost certainly played hurt for the second half of the season. He wasn't in a funk; he just stopped making the plays he usually made, and his body language said he was trying but just couldn't. I think Brady will get more out of Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, and whoever fills the #2 slot. I think the Bills will be explosive.

McDermott values leadership in every room. Oliver isn't the guy, at least not yet.

Good point.

I hear what you're saying, but I think you're right that he isn't on Beane's list. They've always said that effort, teamwork, work ethic are essential, and if you don't have that, you aren't playing for the Bills. Compare Young to Spencer Brown. Brown had a unique body and good athletic ability, but he wasn't all world at anything. They took him for the intangibles. That's the kind of upside they bet on - someone who's work ethic can make him an over-achiever. That's who Bernard is. And Milano. And Taron Johnson. Miller had the special physical traits AND the character stuff. I can't see Young.

Me too. There are some places where I should spend time - like, a part of me wishes I'd check into the Athletic and Cover 1 every few days, but I don't do that. As far as nationally, it's a joke. I suppose there are a few outlets that would keep me informed better than I am. I wasn't a big Peter King fan, but if you read him regularly you'd get some good, in-depth coverage of some part of what's happening with teams. But so much of what's out there is stuff written by people who are interested in the game, but don't have the time or the budgets to produce thoughtful stuff. They're just grinding stuff out, and in that situation it's hard not to just run with the conventional wisdom. So, you get, "Poyer, White, Morse. I know something about these guys. Wow, that's three big players. Bills are slashing the roster." Pretty uninformed stuff.

That's a good point. I said a few days ago that so far as I'm concerned, Tua and Brock Purdy are the same guys. Smart guys who can run your offense, accurate throwers on the short and mid-range balls, QBs who can eat up opponents so long as the offense is running on schedule: Drop, one read, or two, and throw. The problem with them is that when you need your QB to make a play, rather than just run the offense, the six or ten plays when you're off schedule and you need help, Tua and Purdy are not your guy. Those guys, as you say, are all in the AFC. Interestingly, even Rodgers, if he has anything left, is in the AFC. NFC has Dak, who makes those plays but not consistently enough, and I don't know who else. The only problem with this NFC theory is that the chances are that within a couple of seasons, some team or teams in the NFC will have gotten their guy in the draft, and once there are two or three in the NFC, Purdy no longer will look like a franchise guy, because he isn't going to be making the plays. So, even if I were in the NFC, I'm not sure I'd put big and long money into Tua.

There's just no quality mass-market coverage of the NFL in the off-season, because there's really no large market for quality. All of the national media outlets can get away with all the generalities, platitudes, same old stuff. Audiences for some reason tune in for that stuff, and they really don't want to hear the in-depth stuff, which is just too detailed. Take the Bills, for example. Since Beane went to work a few days ago, there's a lot to say about the Bills, but only people like us want to hear it. It's detailed, complicated, and not easy to explain in a sound bite. The general tv market isn't interested in a one-time half hour show about what's going on with the Bills salary cap. All that market wants to know about the Bills is Josh Allen, salary cap hell, the window, and maybe something about a wide receiver. And, as interested as I am in the Bills, I'm certainly not interested in 31 half-hour shows about the other teams. The result is that there's nothing out there to look at, other than the people who are dedicated to covering the Bills. Chris Brown, Eric Wood, Steve Tasker, Cover One, a half-dozen journalists, either print, online, or podcasts. Other than those folks, we know more here than the national media.

I don't know what Miami is thinking, but I don't think of it that way. Yes, for any other position, the question is whether the player is worth the money. That is, if you're talking about a linebacker, is he the best LB in the league, and what does the best LB cost? Or is he the 10th best, and what's 10th best worth? If he's depth and he's the 50th best LB, what is that worth. But for QB, I think the question is different. I think to a great extent, if you don't have a true franchise QB, you don't have anything. That is, I'm not interested in paying 10th best money to the 10th best QB, because the 10th best QB isn't a franchise QB. If I have the 10th best QB, I'm still looking for my QB. It's the position Washington was in and Minnesota now is in with Cousins. So, from my point of view, Miami's question is whether they believe Tua is their franchise QB. If he is, then sign him up at whatever cost. If he isn't, signing him to a mid- to high- contract is a mistake, because they'll be stuck with that contract when they decide to move on from him in a year or two or three. "Insist" may be too strong a word, but I would be amazed if Beane and McDermott haven't talked about WR with Allen. They certainly would like his input about what kind of receiver Allen sees as helping. And to some extent I'm sure Allen is saying to them, "Just figure out who we need to win." It's not like Allen's priority is a 5000-yard season or 50 TD passes. He wants to win the Super Bowl, and if they can win the Super Bowl running 35 QB sneaks a game, Allen will sign up for it.

As others have pointed out, the incentive may have been that the Bills told him they would cut him, and his agent told him that his options in free agency would be limited, given the uncertainty about his recovery.

I agree that if you have a QB, the window is always open. But that doesn't mean there is no such thing as a window. In other sports GMs sometimes operate on a "window" theory, trying to accumulate a lot of young talent and winning a championship before it's time to renew the contracts of several players at significantly higher contracts. The Mariners had a window, for example, when they had Griffey Jr, A-Rod, and Randy Johnson. They weren't going to be able to keep them all, and they saw the window closing. Unfortunately, they didn't get through it before it closed. In the NFL, the workings of the draft and the cap make discussions of windows less likely. The Dolphins and the Bengals have mini-windows, because they've both been playing with two number 1 receivers, which they could afford because one was on a rookie contract and because their QBs were on rookie contracts. Those windows are now closing, and the we'll have to see if those franchises have GMs and coaches who can in a more normal situation - high QB contract and only one number 1 receiver.