Shaw66

I've been thinking about this "stretch-the-field" notion for a few days or weeks now. I keep thinking about it when I see posts that want us to return to the days of John Brown. We all loved watching Josh bomb away. The reality is that the league has changed. Total scoring per game in the league is down six points since 2020. Rich McKay, who heads the competition committee, says it's down because everyone is playing two-high safeties and because they're calling fewer defensive penalties. We all know how interference is called has changed a lot in the last few years. Defenders get away with a lot of contact, including on deep balls, making it that much harder to complete long throws. A few years ago, pretty much all contact was called, which made the defenders play off the receivers, and that's the era where John Brown could thrive. Yes, they've had injuries, QBs out, etc., but the guys we like to think of as elite receivers, the tall guys who can stretch the field, are not dominating any more, especially in the playoffs. Hill and Lamb put up big numbers, but their teams aren't winning. Who are the receivers in the winning offenses? 49ers, Bills, Lions, even the Chiefs don't feature deep threats. They all have guys who can get deep, not guys who "stretch the field." Why? Because the defenses are designed to stop those guys getting deep, and those defenses create opportunities for smart, talented, versatile receivers, like the guys you see on the 49ers, Bills, Lions, and Chiefs. Shakir would have been useless five years ago, because he's not as physical as Beasley. Five years ago, defenses were designed to stop guys playing like Edelman, and Beas was one of the few who could thrive in it anyway. Shakir couldn't. But with defenses now shutting down the deep ball, guys like Shakir - smart, quick, good hands - can get production in middle of the field. Maybe they'll tinker with the rules again, and maybe we'll see the return of quick-strike offenses, but until that happens, teams have to be built for the way the game is being called. That means a different breed of receivers are the guys who will be effective. And that is what Beane was talking about.

No, it doesn't, but the point is about how you acquire talent. Free agency is a much better market for proven young talent. It's a lot simpler to sign those giluys in free agency than ti draft them. Well over half the players drafted in the last three rounds in 2018 are out of the league. Three of the first rounders are gone. It's a no brainer that the chances of getting a good long-term player are much, much better in the first round, even if you have multiple late round picks.

First, the Bills didn't draft Poyer and Hyde. More to the point, I'm not saying you can't find useful players, even good ones, in the later rounds. I'm saying if you have a good roster, and the Bills do, there's a limit to how many of those rookies you can keep. The Bills are very unlikely to keep several late round picks from this draft. When they go to your practice squad, they get poached. A first round pick is a high percentage opportunity to get long-term talent on the team.

If I knew a lot of statistics I could prove this is incorrect. All I know is t odds of getting a star with a late first round puck are better than with three later round picks combined. You named 10 great players taken in the 6th and 7th. That's 10 out of more than 1200 (64 picks, 20 years) or 1 out of 120. Chances of getting a great player are much better late in the first round. By you logic I'd trade my first and second every year. That's why the trade value chart is skewed heavily to the early picks. And it definitely compounds the problem. If you have a solid roster, it's better to come to camp with a few good rookies than a lot of promising guys, because you won't keep all those promising guys. Bad roster, sure, give me a boatload of fourth rounders to keep, because I can use them somewhere. Good roster, no.

Love it!

You're right! Watch the Cover 1 video. The guy has great strength, standing up and holding his ground, then uses his hands to slip the block one way or the other to bring down the running back. Over and over he does it.

Of course, but trading back in the first round isn't Beanes style. He's traded up four times in the first round in six years. Allen, Edmunds, Elam, Kincaid. The fools in Las Vegas have them fourth. I'd say they're a contender.

I think Beane's ideas of who he wants in the first round regularly surprise us. Both position and identity are surprises.

Beane could do anything but he's shown he's prone to trading up, not down. The Bills aren't going to keep 11 rookies, for sure, so unloading some picks is essential. Trading back compounds the problem. I expect another trade up, like last season, to get a solid starter they really like. Not ahuge move - they don't have the capital for that - but two three or four spots.

And the TDs are of little concern to me, at least not yet. TDs don't happen all that often, relative to receptions, so a statistical variation in TDs per reception is not uncommon. Davis caught four TDs in one game. That didn't mean Davis was great; it just meant in that game, against that defensive scheme, Allen was finding Davis. Plus, as I said earlier, I think red zone scoring has a lot to do with how well the QB and receiver communicate. Diggs has had a lot of red zone success, and Beasley did, too, and both were based on their communication with Allen. The spaces are tight, the timing is critical, and the receiver's understanding of how the defense works also is critical. I think we'll see Kincaid improve in that area. Kelce went 5-5-4 TDs in his first three years playing. When he got older, and when Mahomes arrived, is when his TD production went up.

Thanks for this. I don't know anything about strength building and conditioning, so I certainly won't argue with anything you say here. My comments were based only on my impressions looking at the guy. He seems a little undersized for a tight end. Now, of course, his current size allows him to be more mobile than the average tight end, so I don't know if added weight would make him less effective. Knox isn't your quintessential blocking tight end, but he has a body that seems to be more of the prototype for modern tight ends, and I think it might help Kincaid to build himself up to be at least a bit more like Knox. I also think a lot of guys come out of college not having built their strength particularly well. Linemen, particularly, often get to the NFL needing a year or two of learning technique and body building. I don't know for a fact, but I think there's a big difference between the programs that Alabama, Ohio State and a few other schools run and the programs run by a lot of the other schools. Kincaid walked on at San Diego State after being primarily a basketball player, and transferred to Utah, which is a nice program but not elite. So, I wouldn't be surprised if pro weight trainers in Orchard Park looked at him concluded that they could put him on a program that might add weight, or at least redistribute it, and build strength. They didn't have time to do that in his rookie year; this off-season was the first window they had. As for Kelce, well, every player is different. However, according to listed weights, Kelce carries the ten pounds that I think Kincaid might add. Bottom line for me is that I don't worry about it. The Bills and Kincaid will figure out what they think is best for him, and he'll work himself into the condition, including weight and strength, that they think is best.

I used to believe that take, too. I think it was true, but I think as the team has grown, things have changed. One thing McDermott and Beane said when they got here, something that I didn't understand, and I still don't understand, is that as players learn the system and come back for year two, they play at higher level and learn more. Collectively, the team's intelligence and understanding of the system grows from year to year. There is a team learning curve, and somehow the veterans pull the newcomers up the curve, so that things it took Poyer and Hyde years to learn, for example, are learned by Hamlin and the like in a year or two. I don't understand how that works, but it apparently does. The result is that when the team was playing at a lower level, it was harder for rookies to get into the lineup, because the veterans were still working their own way up the learning curve. Now that the team has matured, it gets easier. to pull guys along. So, Kincaid and Torrence both walked into camp and pretty quickly were able to play with the vets. It's what we saw with the Patriots. Year after year, some guy would get injured for the Patriots and some rookie you've never heard of would move into the lineup and play just fine. Why? Because Belichick's system somehow worked to have the vets pull the rookies up to their level. It's a beautiful thing.

I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection. They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit. (That's what's so shocking about Elam.) I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him. I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this. Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls. That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit. Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down. I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen. The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley. I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen. I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope.

I think you can make the case that the Bills could play the season (barring injury) with guys currently on the roster, but I don't think the 22 starters actually are on the roster. In the first place, it's quite likely that their first and second round picks will start, if not in September, at least by November. Just off the top of my head, I'd say this: Maybe the DT starters, technically, are on the roster (Jones and Oliver), but the rotation guys are like starters, and I'd guess there's another DT coming, and an edge. I think a starting safety is coming, somehow (unless my theory about Taron Johnson moving turns out to be correct, in which case the safeties are on the roster, but one of the three starting corners is not). I don't think the starting wideout is on the roster. I just don't see the Bills going with Diggs-Samuels-Shakir. Maybe Shorter comes out of nowhere, but I doubt it. There might be a guard who shows up. Whether all those guess are right, I don't know. Only one of them has to be right to prove that all the starters are not yet on the roster.

Alabama is where you go to find late-round picks and undrafted free agents. They recruit more of the best athletes in the country than almost anyone.

I say you've taken an overly pessimistic view, in several respects. He had 670 yards in receptions, which was right around where I expected him to be. That's a nice total for a rookie, especially for a tight end. A rookie wideout who starts has an opportunity for some chunk plays that a tight end doesn't get. So, I'd say his production was pretty good, and I expect it will improve. Next, I'd say that "he rarely broke tackles" is unfair. A large number of his catches were essentially dumpoffs over the middle where he was surrounded by defenders. He's not a big guy who's going to drag those tacklers. Still, he always goes down going forward, and he gets just about all the yards he can. He had several plays where he made a move to avoid a tackler and get extra yards, and in particularly he made several to get the first down. He's not a great open field runner, but he gets ahead in space before he goes down. Drops. I agree about that. He's excellent when he's open, but he isn't so good on contested catches. In a crowd, he doesn't seem to come down with it as often as he should. One thing that was apparent was how often Allen's throws were off target. Some of his drops really were throws where Allen missed the market, and some of his best catches also were on inaccurate throws. I agree about bulking up. He looks like he could carry another ten pounds, and then would make him tougher to bring down. I wouldn't call him a disappointment at all. However, if he's never better than he was as a rookie, I will be disappointed. My hope for 2024 is that Brady will have a creative passing attack with Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir attacking all over the field, short and long, and with Kincaid finding plenty of holes as the defenders chase the speed guys.

Happy Birthday, Coach!

Exactly the kind of characteristics McD likes. 3rd round pick. Still, only a one-year deal, so he will be competing for a job.

Cover One says Bills liked him at Senior Bowl. The Bills usually sign guys they've followed for a while. They generally know what they're getting. They must like him as a sleeper starter.

Two Super Bowl rings.

Well, if those are the rules, okay, but I think Fred is actually the answer. I think Fred was the emotional heart and sole of the team until Kyle took over, overlap or not. And because I haven't always been so deeply attached to the team, and because I'm old enough not to be able remember, I have trouble naming guys from earlier eras. Talley, for sure. But between him and Fred, I'm sure there were leaders, but I'm not sure any were in the category of Fred and Kyle.

Fred Jackson.

Great read. Thanks.

I don't think so. The Bills are never going to carry all the guys they could draft, so they'll push them to practice squad where they'll get pick off by weaker teams. Beane loves to move up to get guys the Bills thought would be gone much earlier. I expect that twice in the draft he'll package one or two picks to move up to get a guy they really like. He'll come out of the draft with seven guys, eight maximum.

The problem with the compromise is it upsets the safety chemistry. I think if he moves he will be more or less full time. He would need all the safety reps in practice, too.