Shaw66

On average, a bit less than 50% of rosters turn over from season to season. Players come and go all the time. The success of teams is largely attributable to how they manage the change. The Bills roster has gotten better year over for the past five years. I expect we'll like the free agent deals, and we'll like the draft, and by July we won't be looking at any serious roster weaknesses, let alone holes. Bills are fine. If the coaches do their jobs, the Bills will be in the playoffs and will perform well.

I think that's the correct ceiling. They have been a preseason favorite to go deep in the playoffs for few years now, and nothing that's happened should change that. Josh, Diggs, Kincaid, and pretty much the whole offensive line is back. Defense has to replace a safety, a corner, and reshuffle the D line, with the best dlinemen, other than Jones, coming back. And Milano is coming back. There's no reason that we should expect the defense to be worse. Ceiling is high. Everyone has a lot of work to do.

That's an interesting theory. Not that I know him, but my sense of him is a real matter-of-fact guy who is pretty casual about things like that. If I recall it correctly, there's some miscommunication and recommunication about Dorian Williams and middle linebacker. I suspect McDermott's view is that every position is open for any solution and they aren't going to presuppose anything. And McDermott would rather that his coaches haven't formed an opinion yet. McDermott's challenge to the coaches is create competition and see who's good, and don't presuppose anything.

I don't have expectations, beyond that the Bills will be good and in the playoffs. I think that's the team they are - this team will be good so long as owner-GM-HC stay together. How much more they will be, I have no expectations. If it comes together well, they can win the Super Bowl. If it doesn't, well, they'll fall short.

That's a good point. Probably someone made a mistake. Or here's a theory. They don't know who's playing guard or center. McGovern is a possibility. Getting the word out lets everyone know the Bills are in the market for either. If they didn't say it, people would assume the Bills have high need at center and none at guard. THis gives them options. Just a guess.

That's true in a lot of ways. They signed Miller to be an impact player in 22 and 23 and hoped for the best after that. The writing was on the wall for Poyer and Hyde, although the timing was still unclear. Diggs would be in his prime, and they'd have Davis on a cheap contract. And remember, Edmunds was the start of the parade out the door. 2024 was always going to be like this. But as others have said, it just doesn't look to be too bad. The offense needs two players - a center or guard and a receiver. The defense needs a safety and probably a corner, although Douglas, Benford, Elam is a very nice fallback plan There are some things that would be nice, but that aren't essential. That's five players, with a tight but manageable cap budget and a boatload of picks. Beane will get Brady a receiver, and rest will be up to him. McDermott will get the defensive backfield together, and the Bills will be a contender.

I'm cap ignorant. Can you explain this? I thought when the Bills cut a guy, they took the cap hit, and the guy became a free agent. As a free agent, he's free to sign with any team, but there's an additional cap consequence if he goes back to his former team? Or did you just mean that once the franchise takes the hit, it's making a commitment to getting younger at the position, so they actually don't want the guy back? Frankly, I'm expecting that the Bills will bring in a veteran free agent to start at some position, safety, center, even guard, really anyplace up and down the lineup. So, if it were Morse that they needed for a year, you think the Bills wouldn't be interested? I'm not challenging what you said; just trying to understand what you meant.

Hey, Gunner. I was rereading this, and I hadn't really focused on the Hughes comparison. I can really see that. Hughes had an interesting skill set, but he wasn't well suited to playing the more button-down style McDermott wants from his edges. Playing that style limited the things that he did best. Hughes wasn't able to make explosive plays in that defense. Even though we've seen only a little of Elam, we've seen enough to see that playing with the discipline McDermott requires limits his ability to make plays. Compare him to Tre White, for example. White was good enough to be a true cover corner, but when he played with the discipline required by the defense, his cover skills aren't lost. That same thing is what the Bills got from Poyer and Hyde, and from Johnson. They're all guys with ability to make big plays AND play the scheme. That's also what's expected from the linebackers - run the defense, but make plays, too. That's what Elam has to do, and we haven't seen that from him yet. And that was Hughes's struggle, too. The difference is that Hughes was still a net plus on the field, but Elam has generally been a minus. Elam has to make a leap this summer. I can see that now.

I agree. Turnover is part of the program in any well-run franchise. Morse generally wasn't physical enough from my point of view. As others have said, he'd get pushed around in pass pro sometimes, and he wasn't a great power blocker. What he was was a solid leader in the middle of the line, in charge, standup guy. That will be missed. Also as others have said, this move isn't leaving a vacuum. They have a plan for the position, and no doubt a backup plan, too. And a center probably will be added to the equation someplace along the way, starter or backup. I'm not concerned. I often repeat what I heard Colin say one day. He asked a Las Vegas odds maker how much it would affect the point spread if JJ Watt (at the time he was the reigning defensive player of the year) was out of the lineup. The odds maker said, "maybe a half point." So, if JJ Watt is a half point in the point spread, what is a solid but not spectacular center? The league is full of talented athletes, well trained, committed. Some are better than others, of course, but the difference between the starter and a quality replacement often is pretty small.

Seems like you were right about Miller. I need to stop doubting you!

I really like this. I wonder if Trubisky has reached the conclusion that his future now is journeyman backup. If so, this is great. He might have a three-four-five-year run in Buffalo. He has the size, arm, running style, and brains to be a JA backup. A good fit in the QB room and a decent guy to put on the field if the need arises. I assume he and Josh get along, or else the Bills wouldn't have done this.

That's interesting. You know way more about the technical stuff than I. If the Bills are going to move on from him, I'd think the earliest that would happen would be late camp/preseason, when they know they have their CB depth covered with some other young player(s). I'm still hoping you're young, as you are, too.

Yes, that all may be true, but he also could be Jordan Poyer, who had 10 starts in four seasons in Cleveland, or Micah Hyde, who was only a part-time starter in Green Bay. Not saying he's a safety - just saying that top talent doesn't always develop into top players in the their first three or four years. Yes, change of scenery helps some, scheme is a factor. But at least with scheme, they thought he could be a scheme fit when they drafted him, and he knows that scheme fit is critical to making it in Buffalo. Maybe you're right, and the Bills already have given up on him and are just waiting for the right opportunity to unload him. I think he's cheap and talented. Aren't likely to get a better backup at that price. Bills will get a rookie corner or two in the draft and and free agency, and if one of them can take the backup job from Elam, so be it. Otherwise, I think the Bills will be happy to have him. At least, that would be my take.

I just wrote something about this generally, and gave Elam as an example. I think it's important to keep young talent a year too long, rather than cut young talent a year too early. Young often talent needs time to grow into the league, and it's worth it to give young talent extra time to see what that growth looks like. Everyone uses Wyatt Teller as the example. Elam was injured last year, which hampered his growth. He also, clearly, has had trouble being effective and consistent in McDermott's scheme. He's young - turns 23 this year. I'd much rather invest another year in him than see him starting for five years (which he has the potential to do) for some other team.

Yeah, I agree. Belichick was the master at that. Over the years, I've developed two general rules about player retention. The rules are (1) let old talent go before they're done (only exception is a true franchise player who you drafted and who deserves to finish his career with your team), and (2) keep young talent until you're sure they've busted. It looks like Beane should have started on the old players a year ago, and done it a bit more gradually. Had to keep Morse, because the middle of the line was so unsettled. Had to keep White, because he could have come back and been a stud for several years. McGovern, Torrence, and Douglas made them expendable this year. Had to be Poyer last year, and Rapp could have taken on a bigger role more quickly. The best talent in free agency is first and second picks coming off their rookie deals, guys who have underperformed in some way, so their original team lets them walk. Work ethic and team orientation are great, gotta have it, but there's no substitute for size, strength, speed, talent - the stuff you find in the first two rounds. Elam is the current example of sticking with the underperforming young talent. The Bills need to keep working with him and see how he develops. Edmunds was the last example - Bills were sure about him by the time he left.

Yes. They got a little old last season. They probably should have bit the bullet on Poyer last season.

That's great! Thanks!

I agree. It will be interesting.

Looking at that list, what does it say about where McDermott expects leadership to come from. He knows, the players know, who has to step up. Where does it come from: Milano and Taron Johnson, maybe Rousseau. Who's the leader in the backfield? Putting a lot on Rapp. On offense, it for sure falls on McGovern, who's moving to center and needs to be able to win at the position, learn to work with a new guy on both sides. And Allen, but Allen's good as a leader and just will get better. There'll be some veteran free agents, too, and they'll be brought in intentionally to be leaders. Still, it's going to be a different team.

Wow. You are on a roll. This, too, is simply excellent. And not only are these players good human beings and feel somehow like family. They also were part of one of the most memorable periods in Bills history. They were core players at a time when Bills fans were being rewarded for the two decades of disappointment. These were the guys who were there, who were anchors, when Bills football became genuinely exciting, exciting like we hadn't seen in those two decades. Yes, sure, it was Allen, of course, it was Allen, but these guys were the supporting players the team depended on to lead the others. They are part of an exciting era. And I'll add this: I think the first rock McDermott built this team on was Kyle Williams, and I've always thought that when the Bills win the Lombardi under McDermott, Williams will know, and McDermott will acknowledge, that it started with Williams. And we all will know that it went through Poyer and Hyde, and Morse, too. They'll be gone, but they'll be part of the success that's coming.

Thanks, Logic. That was great, just great.

I agree. Beane doesn't play the game from the sideline. He's always in the fight, so there will be some big deals, for sure. There might be a trade up in the first round. It could be anything.

Thanks. I think you're right.

Weren't you and I talking a few days ago about whether it's reasonable to expect much from Miller, that it looked like he just wasn't going to get back to his old self. Doesn't this say that at least Miller is confident that he will be back? That's a big bet on himself.

What a player! All I can say is thank you, and good luck!