Shaw66

That's what I heard, too. A guy in charge who shares what he can and tells you when he can't. We can learn something about his job by listening to him tell us what he's thinking. On top of that, what he says makes sense. That's REALLY refreshing.

That's the way Rex Ryan talked. The problem was that he thought it meant something.

How many of you who say Beane was lying in his press conference would stand in front of him and say he was lying?

Do I think they'll trade up? Yes. Do I think Beane is lying about not knowing if he will trade up? No. In my experience, I've heard very few GMs talk in such an open and straightforward manner as Beane does. Here's what he said: I haven't focused on the draft. Until now I've been focused on free agency. We evaluate potential free agents more or less the way we put together a draft board, figuring out what each guy is worth to us. That's what I've been doing. Now I will begin to focus on the draft. I don't know nearly enough about any of the top players, and I will by the time the draft comes. We will put a value on each guy. We haven't done that. When we know how good each guy is, then we can talk to teams to find out what they want for their picks and we can decide whether we think it's worth what they want to get the guy we we want. I don't know whether there's a deal to be made or not, because I don't enough about the players and I don't know yet what teams at the top of the draft want. What part of that don't you believe? The question no one asked, which he would have ducked, is given what you know now about the QBs, what do you think the chances are you'll trade up? I'd say 80%. I'd guess he'd say the same. That's what I'd like to know. Here's the thing: I don't think any one of the rookies has a resume that looks like Luck's or Newton's coming out of college. None of these guys has the same high probability of success that those guys had. If I'm right about that, then the teams that need QBs aren't going to be so excited about trading up. And the teams that are up there already that need QBs may not be so anxious to roll the dice. Look at the extreme year, when EJ and Geno were generally the two highest rated guys coming out. There was no stampede to trade up; in fact, as you know, the Bills traded DOWN and still got the guy they wanted. So maybe Beane isn't all that impressed with these guys. Maybe he actually IS content to sit at 12 and take the best QB left on the board. Maybe he likes that better than coughing up his 22d pick and a second round pick. That doesn't seem to be a completely crazy prospect. On the other hand, how likely is it that he already knows he loves a guy so much he's going to the top of the draft to get him? Looking at the rookies we're talking about, I don't think it's very likely. In other words, I think he's telling the truth when he says he doesn't know if he's trading up.

Actually, it's worse than that, because there are very few $30 million QBs on the market. Cousins this year. Garoppolo, if you were quick enough to trade for him. Last one before that was Brees. (Peyton was a special case.) If I So when you have the draft pick, I think you MUST take the QB. It may be the only chance you get, other than getting lucky. That's why when the Bills passed on Cousins, it was about 95% certain that they were trading up, and now that they moved up to 12, it's just about as certain, maybe more so, that they're moving up again. You have to make your move when you have the opportunity. The Bills decided that Cousins wasn't the opportunity, so it must be the draft. As I said somewhere this morning, if I'm the Browns I'm not taking a running back in the first round at all. But if I really want to take the running back, the only way I'm doing it is if I can trade up from 4 to 3 or 2. If I sit at 4, I run the risk that I'm getting my THIRD choice at QB or I'm losing to Barkely to someone. Seems to me the Colts are either taking a QB or trading out to someone who wants one.

Man, I don't agree at all. Chris Ivory is Fred Jackson. Hard-nosed, good in the hole, good after first contact. Statistically, he had two subpar (for him) seasons at Jacksonville, but so did their starting running backs. As we know, Bortles was sometimes their best ball carrier. Yes, he could be burned out, but I don't think so. This will be his 8th season, and he's averaged only about 160 carries per season. Plus Cadet and Jones, Bills are fine at running back. If McCoy goes down, it's a problem of course. But you're not going to have a McCoy-type backup.

I haven't been around and will jump back in here. I agree with both of you that would be nuts not to take a QB at #1. Where I will disagree with you is taking Barkely at 4. Now, let me say I've essentially never seen Barkely, but I gather he's really special. Still, I'm really in the camp that running backs simply are not that important. A couple of points that I've made before: 1. Who are the best running backs in the last 15 years? Tomlinson and Peterson, probably. McCoy actually may be in the conversation. How many championships have they won? I think the answer to that is none. 2. Which leads to a broader point, which is which positions have the most impact on winning? QB is first. Running back is NOT second. Maybe offensive tackle, maybe edge rusher. But not long snapper, not punter, not running back. I don't care how good Barkely may be, if Kahlil Mack is at 4, I'm taking him ahead of Barkely. Actually, the same thing is true for receivers - the Bills should have taken Kahlil Mack instead of Sammy. 3. Meanie's made the point before about rookie salaries. From a cap management point of view, a stud offensive tackle on his rookie contract is a much better cap management value than a stud running back. The best tackles are $12-15 million, the best running backs are $6-8 million. That's $6-7 million of cap room you have if grab a star tackle in the draft, over what you'd have if you bought a tackle in the free agent market (assuming you could find one). The Bills have made all the drafting mistakes. They made the CJ Spiller mistake, they made the Watkins mistake. Don't waste high picks on running backs or receivers, don't trade up for anything except a quarterback. The Browns have been even better at it. A leading member, I might add.

I have seen very little of these guys, and I haven't studied anything written about them, but I agree about Rosen. The times I've watched him I've been really impressed with his poise and quick release. He looks to me like he really understands what's going on on the field, as it happens, and adjusts to it. My problem with him is his size. I think he's going to get snapped like a twig in the NFL. Mayfield is the other one I've seen with that kind of poise. Mayfield gets things done. There is not a guy I'm sold on. Five years from now Cousins might still be the best of all of them. But any of the four rookies has the potential to be a star, each for different reasons.

Offense, offense, offense. Where are this kind of guy on the offense? I know McDermott is going to get his guys on the defense. I think the defense will be a lot better this season. I'm worried about the offense.

Thsnks jp.

I agree with others that since they're building for the future, McCarron plus the draft pick plus the lower cap hit is the way to go. On top of that, Taylor's upside is pretty clear; McCarron's isn't. So there's a chance, slim though it may be, that McCarron could become your long-term solution. Moreover, by reducing the cap hit, etc., Bills may have left themselves in a position to force the Eagles to lower their price for Foles.

Right. Everyone wants to follow the Seahawks model: hit the jackpot on a rookie QB and you have 3-4 years of cap room to load up on talent. When you have a top 10 QB on a rookie contract, you have a lot of money to spend. You're paying a rookie running back the same thing as a rookie QB, but you have to spend a lot of your cap room on a QB.

I agree about how he's a McDermott-type guy. And thanks for the OP. It's interesting information. The starting job is McCarron's today. It will be up to Peterman and the rookie to take it, if they can. If Beane drafts well, the rookie will take in 2018 or 2019. If McCarron is all that the OP says he is, the rookie will have to be pretty good to do it.

I think there are a few things going on here. 1. Players could see a fundamental difference in the 2017 Bills from earlier years. Didn't fold down the stretch. Team discipline. 2. Players listen to other players. They could tell, we all could tell, that McDermott had created an environment that players wanted to play in. 3. Players can tell when they're getting BSd, and they don't hear any BS coming from McBeane. 4. When you have the first three, then you look at the owners. The owners look like this, too. Disciplined, create an open and supportive environment, no BS. When you see all that, you believe the team will win. That's what sells.

McCarron is an interesting puzzle to think about. He might actually be good. But I doubt it. Here are some positive and negative thoughts about him: 1. He couldn't take the job from Dalton. Negative. 2. He had a Wonderlic score of 22. Negative. 3. When he filled in for Dalton he looked effective. Positive, particularly when you consider that the Bengals have been more or less dysfunctional for years. 4. He's a team-oriented, system kind of guy. Positive. 5. He's cheap. Positive. I would have paid for Cousins or Keenum. I might make a real hard run at Foles when he's a free agent. All those other guys? Save your money. But the inexpensive solution. At a bare minimum, it's fun watching Beane at work. Keep reading him. You'll get it after a while.

Thanks. This is an interesting point. Another validation of what we all thing we're seeing - total competence in the GM's office. For me, the big question is whether the coaching will be as good as the player personnel activity. On defense, I'm okay. I think McD knows how to build a good defense, and I think he and Beane are getting the guys who fit. The offense, on the other hand, is what I'm worried about. Offense in the NFL these days requires creativity and flexibility. We didn't see that in Buffalo last year, and we just have to wait and see what we get out of Daboll.

You make me laugh. Thanks.

Nice post. I think you describe him well. It's a quibble, but you chose the wrong words when you said he doesn't care about the fan experience or selling tickets. Of course he cares. He's all about team, and the broader team he works for cares about those things, so he does too. The thing about a guy like him is that he doesn't let caring about it change the way he does his job. He knows his role on the broader team is build the best 53-man team he can, and he knows that by doing that the other things will take care of themselves. You're right about Tyrod. I just got lazy writing. Tyrod was a short cut, and short cuts generally get you in trouble. Doing things and doing things well are two different things. We're all excited because Beane is doing things. Whether he's doing them well is a question that likely won't be answered for at least a couple of years. If three years from now Cousins is a top five quarterback and the kid we draft is a bust, no one is going to be calling Beane a good GM. I like what I'm seeing, but wins are what matter, not just doing things.

You didn't give a thought to the possibility that Doug Marrone might win the Super Bowl last year? I did. But I agree with you. I wish Taylor well. I hope he succeeds. I hope the Bills do better.

Thanks. You're right, in terms of the Bills. But the success of guys you get rid of is a risk in that it impacts how your boss evaluates you. I think Taylor has talent, and I think the right coach may get a lot more production out of him. I don't think that will happen, but if it does, Beane won't look so smart. I've always though Ivory is a real tough back. He's a Fred Jackson kind of guy. Guts, strength, shifty, a real pro. I thing he'll be great spelling Shady.

I didn't say he was coming. What I said is that the Bills COULD be in the mix if they wanted. They had the cap room. And they had the right package to sell. I also said that the Vikings were the most likely landing spot. I don't think Cousins wanted NYC and I don't think he wanted to go out west. I think he wanted the midwest. If we can believe the report from Sal or someone, the Bills simply weren't interested in writing a big check for a free agent QB. They want a guy out of the draft. Now the question is who is that guy?

I think the Bills are trading up. McCarron isn't likely to be the future. No one wanted him. When you need a QB and you have a chance to get a great rookie, you can't pass on the opportunity. You have to take your shot. So I think the Bills are trading up into the top 5 and getting the guy they want. And that means they won't be drafting at 12 and they won't be getting one of the top linebackers. Maybe they get their guy in the second round.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 Free Agency Was Over Before it Began Each year, fan excitement grows as the beginning of free agency approaches. Fans of each team analyze their team’s strengths and weaknesses, evaluate the available talent and develop a wish list for the team. Some years it’s a coveted corner back, some years it’s an offensive lineman that tops the list. Rarely it’s a quarterback, because good or even useful quarterbacks rarely are available. Then free agency starts, and a few days of excitement ensue. Players show up in one city or another, the fans follow all the movements and the signings, and sportswriters hand out free agency grades to all the teams. 2018 was different, throughout the league and especially for fans of teams that needed quarterbacks. In 2018, free agent quarterbacks were the whole story. Sure, there are position players available, but for whatever reason 2018’s free agent class was chock full of potential starting quarterbacks. The year was unprecedented. Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins. Heck, Minnesota alone had THREE starting quarterbacks that became free agents. AJ McCarron won an arbitration and became a free agent. And to make it more interesting, the Eagles decided they wanted to trade their Super Bowl winning quarterback, not a free agent but still up for grabs. Making the whole show more interesting was the pending 2018 draft, with one of the best quarterback classes in years. Fans of every team that needed a quarterback spent weeks figuring what seemed like endless possibilities. And then, before it even began, it was over. In a dizzying series of moves, all, or just about all, of the quarterbacks in play landed with their 2018 teams. For Bills fans, it was truly breathtaking. By virtue of several 2017 trades, the Bills were holding several high draft picks, potential ammunition for trading up into a top spot in the draft. Ten days before free agency was to begin, they strengthened their draft position by trading Tyrod Taylor to the Browns. Taylor wasn’t even one of the QBs being talked about in the free agent frenzy. Was the Taylor move a signal that the Bills were strengthening their hand to trade up in the draft? Or was it clearing cap room for a serious run at one of the better free agents? Bills fans didn’t have to wait long for an answer, because within a week the Bills packaged Cordy Glenn and one of their first-round picks to acquire the Bengals 12th pick in the draft. The Bills were making a run at the top of the draft! But what about 2018? Were the Bills actually planning on starting the season with Nate Peterman and whatever rookie phenom the Bills find in the draft? That couldn’t be. Did the Bills want Cousins or Foles or Keenum and planned to use their 12th pick to get a middle linebacker? Or did they want Bridgewater or McCown, guys who have looked okay as starters but who probably aren’t the future? By the time free agency began, the fans had their answer. The Bills didn’t want any of them. The Bills didn’t want to write a big check to anyone. When just about all the dust had settled, all the quarterbacks had found a home, all but one, AJ McCarron. And all the teams had their quartebacks, all but one, the Bills. Still, maybe the Bills would pry Nick Foles from the Eagles. And then, it was over. McCarron is a Bill. Along the way, Brandon Beane wasn’t focused solely on the quarterbacks. Expecting to lose EJ Gaines, he signed Vontae Davis to keep the secondary stocked with talent. He signed Chris Ivory to have a solid backup to LeSean McCoy. He added two pass rushers and a solid defensive tackle. And free agency had barely begun. Beane will continue to add players, plug holes, build depth. And prepare for the draft. Now the fans have another month to speculate about how the Bills will move up from 12, what it will cost, and most importantly, who it is Beane covets as his next quarterback. So, what do we know now that we’ve seen Brandon Beane in action? Keep your seat belts fastened at all times, that’s what we know. We got a taste of it last summer, when Watkins and Darby were shipped out. We saw more when Dareus was moved and Kelvin Benjamin arrived. But 2017 was nothing compared to this. This was ten days of wheelin and dealin. The stakes were high – teams were making five-year bets on quarterbacks, and Beane placed his bet, on the draft. He’s all in on the draft for the quarterback he wants. Beane wasn’t hedging his bets. He wasn’t looking for a free agent to be his guy. McCarron could claim the job and keep it, but what are the chances of that? He hasn’t been able to take Andy Dalton’s job, so how good can he be? No, Beane has his eyes on someone in the draft, and he’s going to go get him. Beane’s fearless. He’s making deals, he’s moving players, he’s reshaping the team. Every move comes with risk; Taylor may light it up in Cleveland, Beane’s draft pick could bust, but he isn’t afraid to move. This is his team, and presumably it’s McDermott’s team, too. They’re building it the way they want it, win or lose, it’s theirs. Keep your seat belts fastened. And don’t nap on these guys – you’ll miss something. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I think people have to get away from the notion that all these guys would be bridge QBs only. Foles is only 28 and he's had some real success. He's also had some time when he's been pretty ugly. But the success has been more than an accident. He has some talent. It takes time to learn to play QB in the NFL, and Foles, like Cousins, could be just now coming into his own. Three years from now, Brady, Ben, Brees, Rivers will all be gone. Who will be the five best QBs in the league? It's not so obvious, because there isn't anyone who compares with them. Foles actually could be one of them. Getting a guy like Foles is the safe play. He can be good enough to carry you for a couple of years, and he also might turn into your long term starter.

Thanks. That means there's no real pressure on the Eagles and they're holding the Bills up for whatever they can get. The Bills are the last likely bidder for Foles. In some ways that's better for the Bills - the Eagles can't play teams against each other. On the other hand, if the Eagles aren't under any great pressure, they can just sit tight. As I said above, the Bills MUST do something by the draft.