Shaw66

Thanks. Good explanation. I agree about the Keuchle-Edmunds comparison; there is no comparison. Keuchle was a classic middle linebacker against the run (not a Butkus, but a guy who could plug the line between the tackles, as well as being a solid asset in pass defense. Edmunds is better in the passing game, but not the force in the middle. The question is how much the wave will turn toward running. I don't think it will turn too much. Baseball, basketball, and football are big businesses trying to create a successful product to put on TV. Baseball is struggling because the game has evolved in a way that makes the product worse on TV, and they're tinkering with the game to try to solve that problem. Basketball has figured out that three point shots and letting little guys fly around the court is a good TV product. And the NFL clearly understands that the elegance of the passing game sells better than Alan Ameche plowing up the middle. The NFL wants more games like 13 seconds, with explosive plays, so I can't see them letting the running game become dominant again. I think we see that in the run on receivers in the draft. All those little fast guys are receivers, not running backs. You'd need a lot of rule changes to make it better for offenses to deploy all those guys as running backs. I think where that trend is going is toward more Deebos. I think that's clearly what McBeane were thinking in this draft. Cook is a Deebo-type - not so powerful, but a guy who truly can play both running back and receiver and hurt you at either position. And I think they see Bernard as a Deebo-defender, a guy they can put on the field who can play both run defense and pass defense - if the Bills are playing the Niners and Bernard is on the field, McDermott's defense will be able to adjust and matchup okay, wherever Deebo lines up. That's who Poyer, Hyde and White are, that's who Milano is, that's who Johnson is, but all of those guys are more one than the other. Bernard and Cook are more like true two-position players.

First, I think your analysis of the first round is correct. I speculated about what Beane learned from doing mock drafts. He must have mocked drafts where his preferred corners were taken early. He said that he never talked to teams about trading up above 20, because it was too expensive. Good bet is that he got to 20 and still had two corners on the board, a situation he had mocked. When the Chiefs took one, Beane was prepared to move. I agree with you; if all the corners were gone, he would have gone in a different directions. But he also said that getting the corner in the first round set up the rest of the draft, because he didn't have to chase any other positions. Hall or a receiver would have been nice, but then he would have been trading the fourth to higher in the second to take his second choice at corner. Beane said getting the first-round corner was key. Second, you characterize the next five guys correctly, I think. They'll all see playing time, in varying degrees. Hard to know yet how successful they will be. Cook could be a star in this offense, or maybe just an occasional irritant to opponents. Bernard could be a revelation or a spot player. Shakir will be only a marginal receiver, I think, but if he can make the squad as the return man, he'll have opportunities to show what he can do in the passing game.

I agree about the three years, for sure. But it actually makes more sense to me to ask two different questions in grading drafts immediately. I think it's a fair and important question to ask which teams improved themselves most immediately. That is, which team acquired the most players who are likely to get serious playing time this year. When projecting the 2022 season, that's an important question. It's meaningful, for example, to say that the Jets got a lot better simply because they seem to have gotten guys who are going to play soon. If things go okay for the Bills, they got a starting corner, a situational running back and maybe a linebacker or receiver who will get on the field occasionally. In the short term, Jets likely had a better draft. In the long term, it's a question that can be answered only by waiting to see how these guys work out. How well the GM did with the assets he had at his disposal is really a different question. Beane drafting for the Jets probably would have acquired just as much talent as the Jets did. The question is whether relative to the assets he had to spend, did Beane do better or worse. That's much more difficult to judge. That really has to wait. Five years from now, Shakir and Bernard could be starting and Araiza could be the best punter in the world. Benford might be a starting safety. There's simply no way to know today how well Beane spent his limited assets. What I'm hoping for is that the Bills have a Lombardi trophy in nine months, in part because they have a rookie starting corner who is a man-to-man problem like White, and a situational running back who adds a new dimension to the offense. If Bernard and Shakir are getting playing time, all the better, and if Araiza is the punter, even better. If all that happens, Beane will deserve all the praise he will get.

I think you and have McDermott have a different vision. McDermott's vision is to put as many fast, attacking players on the field as possible. That's who Poyer and Hyde are. That's who Edmunds and Milano are. That's who Rousseau is. He's not worried that his guys aren't monsters - he wants guys who can cover space and attack all over the field. McDermott wants a team full of McDermotts - undersized over-achievers. I remember what Mike Tomlin said about being a receiver on a team that had McDermott at defensive back. He hated practicing against McDermott, because he was just so damned tenacious, all the time. I think that's what McDermott sees in Bernard. Bernard may be McDermott's defensive coordinator in ten years.

A lot of people here are saying the same thing. Bills want some better run stopping, and a third linebacker is naturally better in that regard than a fifth DB. Teams have been running more generally, and on the Bills particularly. So getting Bernard on the field in place of Johnson makes sense. It makes the Bills more versatile and disguises the defense a bit more. Instead of having to rely on Hyde or Poyer as seventh run stopper behind the line and two linebackers, Bernard can be the seventh some of the time, and Hyde or Poyer can take the slot guy. With his size, Bernard certainly isn't a thumper, but he's likely to be as sure a tackler as Johnson. Bernard probably offers more opportunities as a blitzer than Johnson. As I've said, I'm not sure what the plan is for the guy, but Beane wasn't taking him in the third round to be a spot player and special teamer. They have a plan for him.

I agree. And, as someone pointed out, father and uncle are the agent. One's a lawyer, which helps a lot. Plus, as you say, having a father and uncle who played in the NFL increases the chances that the kid was getting good advice about what it takes to make it in the league. I just loved the look of Beane and McDermott both staring at that notebook. You know McDermott wanted to see what was in it, because it was great evidence of what kind of thinking the kid was doing analyzing his own work, particularly his failures. I think Elam said he kept notes on guys who beat him. McDermott doesn't want guys who watch their own highlight reels; he wants guys who are trying to learn from their failures. I don't know if Elam will be ready to start day one, but I think the Bills have to put him out there pretty quickly, because he's the guy they want in the lineup in December.

I think there's a lot more logic that went into it than you say, but there's a part of me that agrees with you on the result. What I've said about the draft was it was a B, with some great upside and some real downside. I don't think you can be sure that you're right in what you say, but you describe the real downside possibilities of this draft - that the Bills got a decent corner in the first round and no long-term starters after that, except maybe a punter. The class has a look that is very different previous Beane drafts, and I've wondered if that was by design or because Beane guessed wrong and things fell badly. I say there's more logic because I think what happened is sort of what Beane described. He had one first round talent left on his board, and it was coincidentally at a position of need, so he did the sure thing, traded up, and got the corner. What that did, however, was hamstring in the second and third round, because that fourth pick was what would have let him make a more dramatic move in the second round for a full-time starter prospect, maybe a lineman or a receiver. Instead, stuck at the end of the second with no practical way to move up (he has said he doesn't like trading future picks), he didn't see any really good starter value. So, he traded back, which is the right thing to do if you don't like the value on the board. Now, you say that Cook was a high third value, and I simply don't get into discussions with people about what the actual value of prospects is. You say third, but Beane certainly could have had him as a low second. The guy certainly seems like a perfect fit for the Bills offense, so he might very well have been valued highly for that reason. And although I see him this season as a situational back, he has some characteristics that suggest he could be a full-time starter before too long. Getting a guy in the second round who wins the starting job is always a good pick. Then, you come to Bernard, which is where I think your argument fails. You say Beane panicked in this draft, but taking Bernard was the opposite of someone panicking. Beane's pick seems to have surprised everyone, and that could have happened only if Bernard was their BPA. If the first two picks had, in Beane's mind, gone badly and he panicked, the panic move would have been reaching for player at a position of need, reaching for an OG or a receiver, like reaching for Shakir. Beane says he would have taken Shakir in the fourth, and if he panicked, he would have taken him in the third. Instead, he took a guy who was on no one's radar, and I think that can only mean that the Bills see a role for Bernard that is bigger than would appear from his draft profiles. Maybe they see him as a five-year captain of the special teams. I think they see him as a situational linebacker in the 4-3, a defense I think they'd like to run more. Why? Because if a trend toward more running hasn't begun, last season at least seemed like the end of the more-passing trend. Several teams drove their offense with good running balanced with good passing, and going with a 4-2 base defense left the Bills exposed to the run. And if Bernard really works out, maybe he takes Milano's job and MIlano moves to the middle, ending the Edmunds era (or the MIlano era). I don't know what the plan is, but it's pretty clear to me that the Bills have something in mind for Bernard that is more than a spot player role. I can't say I'm as enthused about Shakir as some, but we'll see. And I agree, nothing much happened beyond him, although I'm intrigued that the Bills may see a future safety in Benford. If Beane found a 2023 or 2024 starting safety deep in the 2022 draft, that would be a big win. But that's pure speculation at this point. So, I don't think Beane panicked. I think there was solid thinking behind what he did. However, this draft could end up being as disappointing as you describe. This is the first Beane draft that has the potential of being a largely empty draft.

Thanks. That sounds correct, all the way around. And in the wrinkles and less predictable category, put Bernard on the field. I think that's the other part of the vision you describe. McDermott very much wants to get pressure from for defensive linemen, and Beane made the off-season acquisitions to increase the ability to bring pressure. If he's getting really good pressure from four, then he can afford, even benefit from, putting a guy like Bernard out there, a guy who can play many different roles. McDermott is just doing what he's always said. He wants his teams to play every style, to attack and defend in ways that can be disguised and that flow from concept to concept. That's what I've just been writing about Cook, too. I find it amazing. McDermott said when he came to Buffalo that this is what he was going to do, and we're watching him do it.

I didn't know about the number change. 6'2" is tall. The video of him playing even looks odd. He's bigger than most of the receivers he guards. What intrigues me is the prospect of having two first-round corners for the next several years. For all we know, the Bills could have two of the top-ten press corners in the league. AFC offensive coordinators are saying, "Great. Two first round corners and Von MIller coached by a defensive expert, maybe genius."

Well, that's one take. As you say, it's early. I'd say not to take too lightly the benefit of a year's experience in the NFL. Stevenson and Shakir both come from good but relatively small-time programs, and the NFL is a whole nother thing. Stevenson has had an off season to hone skills that he needs, and Shakir might need a year, too. So, as much as I didn't much that Stevenson had to offer, I want to see what he looks like after a real off-season, a training camp, and some preseason games. If Shakir takes his job at the end of the summer, then we'll know.

Wow! I didn't know that. I'm not sure that's a smart thing for him, but it bodes well for him. That means his father and uncle together had the good sense to research teams and get the son/nephew prepared for the combine interviews. I like him even more. Over and over again, it seems that Beane and McDermott are good, very good, at finding guys who already have lived the kind of work ethic that they value. Cook seems to be that guy, and Bernard and Shakir, too. Even the later guys - they're all focused, motivated people. They are people who want to be on a team full of those guys, and they want to be coached that way, too. And they have a quarterback and wideout and two safeties and edge who are great talents and live that way. The result is a team that can do complicated things, more complicated than most teams because each delivers his best all the time. You can see how powerful it is - it's the vision that drives McDermott.

Ah, there's the problem. I just responded to you in another thread. I don't think he's a wideout. He's a multi-dimensional threat. He's a better receiver than the great majority of running backs in the league, and he's a better running back than just about all of the receivers, except Deebo and maybe a couple more. He doesn't run with Deebo's power, but I think the Bills expect him to be nearly as effective as Deebo in the running game. They also expect him to be as effective out of the backfield or split wide as a Kamara. He won't as good a total package as either of those guys, but he will be a premier dual-threat guy. That's the vision of what he can be. And his real value is not as a runner, because there are plenty of guys who run as well, or as a receiver, because he's not a real receiver. His real value is that he can do both so well that the defense has to worry about him in both roles. His real value is when the Bills break the huddle and the defense is looking to see where he is. His real value is after he lines up, sometimes he motions from backfield to wide, or vice versa, and a half dozen defensive players, on the fly, are changing their approach to the play, because he was dangerous where he was, and now he's dangerous in a different way. His real value is that he creates mismatches someplace in the defense, mismatches that a premier QB can exploit. Some smart person on this board said the other day that becoming that QB is the next step in Josh's progression. He's making the throws, he's making the basic reads and executing, he's leading the team. Now, he has to learn to see and react to opportunities like mismatches. He has to learn to pick teams apart. McBeane wanted a guy who can create mismatches with Josh's continuing development happens.

I don't think so. You can't be running back in the NFL if you can't pass block. McDermott loves disguise. He loves versatility. He wants the opponent not to know what's coming until after the snap. He's not putting a running back in the backfield who can't pass block, then the defense knows something about what's coming, because that guy is either getting the ball or running a pass route. Why? Because McDermott is not going to put the franchise at risk while his rookie running back whiffs on a linebacker. If they wanted the guy because he can run routes, they should have drafted a receiver. In his interview in Buffalo, someone asked Cook if he can block. He said, "100%. You don't play if you can't block." So, he gets the concept. I'm guessing that the Bills already have checked that box on him, but we won't know how well he can do it until we see him.

Okay, so here's something that I've never seen discussed before. When people are giving draft grades to teams, are they grading how much talent they came away with or how well they did given the draft capital they had? Assuming these grades are grades of how much talent teams came away with, then the relevant stat would be a ratio of how well they did versus how much draft capital they had. If the Bills were 13th in talent acquired, that's pretty good, given that they were essentially 25th in draft capital, or in any case not higher than 20th. My sense is that Beane was pretty nimble and did a good job getting a good collection of talent out of what he had to work with in picks. Obviously, would have been better if he'd stayed at 25 and still gotten Elam, but if he'd stayed at 25 and NOT gotten him, his draft would have been much worse.

Ooh, you may be right about that. I understood that on publicized chart, the fourth was overpaying a bit, also, but I might be wrong about that.

New Era - Great stuff. Really enjoy. I've come around to having no problem at all with the trade up. I hear what you say about round two being prime trade up territory in this draft, given how the talent fell, but I now have a different perspective. Listening to Beane, it's clear that corner was a greater need than I thought it was. Without saying it, it's clear that he didn't want to go into the season with Jackson and ?, and he didn't want to be in December going with Jackson and White. It was very important for him to get better at corner, critical, even. He needed a corner at least as good as Wallace, and ideally better. So Beane didn't flinch when he saw he had one shot left at a corner they liked. And there's another point, maybe more important. Beane was asked whether getting Elam set up the rest of the draft for him, and he said yes. He said that once he got his corner, he could let the draft fall to him. The implication was that if he hadn't gotten Elam, he would have been scrambling in the second round to get a corner, and he would have been forced to invest capital almost in desperation. Investing the fourth round pick left him free to trade back twice and still get Cook, and the trade backs in turn gave him the fire power to move for Shakir. I'd like to ask Beane what their drafts looked like when they ran various mocks. They must have run mocks when there were runs on receivers, and also mocks when there were runs on corners. I wouldn't be surprised if when he ran those mocks with corners going off the board, Beane realized he might have to trade up. As I said, he didn't flinch. He looked comfortable doing it.

Definitely would be interesting to see the unedited version. Everything we hear from these guys is that they collaborate on everything, so if we saw ten or 15 minutes unedited, I'd guess that Beane was prowling the room, talking to people. I don't think Beane made the decision without a lot of input, but I was interested, as you, in his decisiveness. No fear. Just answer the question and make the call. Interesting also to see them using their draft value chart to make the decision. Overpaying by literally a few points did not phase Beane in the least. He wasn't going to let pennies get in the way of what he thought was the right decision.

Whoa! I didn't notice that. Not just McD. Beane, too. Elam's talking, and both of them are looking at the notebook in someone's hands (must be DB coach or a scout). The guy is flipping through the pages, actually reading some of the stuff in the notebook. You know that McBeane couldn't wait to get Elam out of there so they could ask the coach if the notebook was legit or crap. Obviously, also, the word is out about what the Bills are looking for. Elam's agent told Elam to bring the notebook, and he told Elam to be sure to take it out of his backpack in the interview. Nevertheless, McBeane were very interested. Quite cool.

There's been a lot of talk about the trade up I thought it was probably a good idea, but I don't know all that Beane may have known/been thinking. Didn't like giving up the fourth. As I thought about, and especially after having watched the video of Beane making the decision, I had another thought about that kind of decision. Essentially, what Beane did was see the right guy sitting on his board who filled the number one need the team had. Elam would give the Bills two first-round picks at corner for the next four or five years. He knew he needed to be sure that he got Elam. Sure. Not a 60% chance, not an 80% chance, not a 95% chance. Sure. So he paid the price to be sure. You know who else made that kind of decision. The Pegulas. The story is that when the Pegulas were bidding to buy the Bills, they had an offer in, maybe it was $1 billion. Mrs. Wilson called for final bids from all bidders. The Pegulas' consultant recommended a bid of $1.1 million. The Pegulas asked what the likelihood was that they'd get the team at $1.1, and the consultant said 95%. They asked what it would cost to get to 100%. Consultant said $1.2 billion. Pegulas said. "bid $1.2." Beane and the Pegulas both said, "We need to be sure." It's interesting decisiveness. You have to pay to play, and Beane was willing to pay.

I like the original post, and I also like Hapless's critique. It helps fine-tune Inigo's thoughts. Stevenson may actually see the field this year. He took his rookie year to experience big-boy football, and he as much as anyone, could benefit from offensive changes designed to take advantage of speed. I've been talking about what it will be like to get Cook and Shakir on the field, especially together, with all that speed coming at the defense from all over the field. Well, Stevenson might be the guy who benefits the most by that change in offensive philosophy. Someone commented about hoping the Bills could score inside the 10. Well, if Dorsey's doing his job, with this kind of speed and quickness in the lineup, he needs to take a page out of Reid's book. There are a lot of wrinkles, including quick screens, shovel passes, and counter plays that have served the Chiefs really well. Enter Kromer and Saffold.

I agree with this. Now that I've seen his interview and heard just a few of the comments about the guy, it seems clear to me the Bills intend for this guy, somehow, to be a three-down player. It's like they're saying we want a few big guys, a few small guys, and a bunch of guys who are smart, fast, and as long as possible. Even Elam, who's a one-position guy, seems to be in that mold. And that's who Cook is, too. And I think this is the kind of guy McDermott sees himself as - maybe a tad under-sized, a tad under-talented, but over-sized heart and brain.

Watch this. It's obvious why the Bills wanted this guy. Smartest football rookie I've ever seen. https://www.buffalobills.com/video/terrel-bernard-can-t-say-enough-good-things-about-the-people-here

Really great insights just from watching. Look at Beane's intensity. He is completely locked into what he's doing. And he doesn't even ask McDermott - he hears the trade offer, picks up the phone and says "we'll do it." THEN he tells McD and presumably the Pegulas what he's doing. Surely, he already knew that McDermott would be happy with the pick. Didn't have to check. And Elam's reaction when he realized that (1) he's going to the Bills and (2) that they traded up for him. Bills must have been high on his list, and for good reason: A chance to start from day one on a Super Bowl contender. Great video. Thanks for posting.

Thanks for this. I've been wondering about his blocking. Clearly, his initial role on the team would be third-down back because of his receiving skills. He's not getting on the field in that role if he can't handle the blitz - teams figure that out in a hurry. If he spends this summer learning his pass pro assignments, he should be ready to go in September.

Thanks, I think this is a fair assessment, and I really appreciate the comment from personal experience. It echoes what we hear so many Bills players say. And, if I had to guess, I'd say your right about the relative playing time fo the two guys. The Bills will be highly motivated to get both guys on the field, but I think running back is an easier position to get snaps at. There's some sophistication to running passing routes that makes it tough for just any rookie to walk on and play. Logic or someone made an interesting comment, which is that if Shakir can make the roster as a punt returned, that will help him start to get more playing time. If he isn't returning punts, he might not make the 53. As I said, I think the Bills will be highly motivated to get them both on the field, because they drafted to add speed, and speed on the sidelines doesn't help. If the Bills can succeed at giving them both useful roles on the field, the Bills' offense should be an absolute nightmare. (By the way, I'm assuming Saffold on the field will be a real upgrade to the running game, and I'm assuming Kromer will be be a further upgrade from the sidelines.)