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Everything posted by Shaw66
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Rd 2, Pick 63 (31): RB James Cook, Georgia
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Don't kid yourself. Ahmaud Arbery thought he was okay just jogging through a white neighborhood. Yeah, it's not 1960. It's 2022, and Black people are still worried about those things, with good reason. -
Rd 6, Pick 180 (1): Punter Matt Araiza, San Diego State
Shaw66 replied to DJB's topic in The Stadium Wall
At 75 years old, I don't think there's anything I could do in the NFL. If the Bills still had the Jills, maybe I could be a part-time cheerleader scout. -
Rd 6, Pick 180 (1): Punter Matt Araiza, San Diego State
Shaw66 replied to DJB's topic in The Stadium Wall
Well, I get this. But was Bojo a subpar athlete? Not committed enough? I'm a decent athlete, but I'm not so sure I could learn to do it at an NFL level. All I'm really saying is that it isn't a given. -
Rd 6, Pick 180 (1): Punter Matt Araiza, San Diego State
Shaw66 replied to DJB's topic in The Stadium Wall
Thanks for the article interesting. I'd add one thing that possibly could lead to Stout being overrated, and that is the quality of his punt coverage team. There are multiple videos in the article of Penn State having TWO punt coverage guys behind the return man, catching the ball in the air at the two or knocking it out of bounds. Stout hit good punts, but he would have had several touchbacks but for the excellence of his cover guys. -
Rd 6, Pick 180 (1): Punter Matt Araiza, San Diego State
Shaw66 replied to DJB's topic in The Stadium Wall
I just have to say that several people here are saying that it will be easy for Araiza to learn to hold. Why will it be easy for him while it was so hard for Bojo? He's never learned it. -
And I'd add couple of other things. One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player. The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer. He just didn't offer that much. Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed. So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better. Second, what Grundy says is wrong. In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade. If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25. They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round. graded guy. To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong. Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice. He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two. By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel. The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.
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That's an excellent take on what happened and what the alternatives were. Thanks.
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Rd 2, Pick 63 (31): RB James Cook, Georgia
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'll say. Nothing wrong with that. He's so laid back, it's amazing. Rich Eisen finally said, "Hey, James, I'm going to ask you something I've never asked anyone else. Did you just wake up?" Eisen was looking for some conversational energy, and Cooke just doesn't swing that way. You could tell that Eisen was thinking a couple of things. One, that this wasn't very interesting television, and he was trying to find a way to get it juiced up. Two, this is is the most chill guy I've ever met. -
Rd 2, Pick 63 (31): RB James Cook, Georgia
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'll say. He must be more animated hanging with his friends. A lot of guys are like that, especially coming out of college. Sure, he had a big fan base and big crowds at Georgia, but he those college guys aren't exposed to the media like they are in the pros. They're more protected. Without much experience dealing with the press, he's clearly uncomfortable saying much. He knows that the last thing he needs in his first year is a big flap with the media. And coming from the Miami environment he came from, don't underestimate his discomfort being on the air with a blonde white woman. He's been told his whole life that he can get in trouble fast messing with white women. Guy needs some success and some experience. Even then, he may not open up much. -
Well, that's interesting about his limitations in pass defense. I'll have to reshape my thinking. As someone else said, they didn't take him to be a situational player. There were several front office comments saying he can wear the green dot - that is, he's the guy you want running your defense. And yes, I hear you about Johnson, but I think McDermott wants a bigger, run oriented guy on the field. It will be interesting to see how they use him, and how long it will take to get him there. If you saw his press conference after he was drafted, he is super-smart. He talked about how he will learn the whole defense - first learn his position, then learn all the other positions. He develops an in-depth understanding of everything going on out there. I think McDermott wants that on the field.
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Rd 2, Pick 63 (31): RB James Cook, Georgia
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think you're correct. I mean, it's always possible, but I think Cook's going to be worked in more gradually. His role ultimately will be complex, so they'll give him spot assignments first and work him in. I think your assessment of Motor is right. He's very good at every aspect of his job, and McDermott values that kind of positional competence. Cook is going to have to be very good to take the starting job this year. 2023 could be a different story. -
That's an interesting thought. It wouldn't surprise me to see Bernard on the edge. And I hear you about Johnson, but there's a good chance that the Bills defense could be better in a 4-3. Johnson would still have plenty of snaps, because there would be times when the Bills will want to be in a true nickel. What's interesting about that is that when they are in pure nickel, it might turn out that Milano or even Edmunds would go to the bench and Bernard stay on the field. Bernard is going to create significant options.
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Alphas Draft thoughts...Our picks, post draft Bills, and Beane
Shaw66 replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall
Alpha -be Great job. Thanks. I have a few quibbles, like I'll believe Araiza is the answer when I see him, but whatever. I was interested in how you're almost apologetic when you say how good the Bills should be, because I've been feeling the same way. I've written some things here the last few days where I wondered how loud and how fast the "homer!" cries were going to come back. I find it particularly interesting that McDermott told us when he got here that this was what the Bills were going to do. After McDermott's first season, the Bills struggled as the roster was reset. Since then, the Bills have gotten significantly better, year over year. They do it with personnel changes AND with improved play from guys on the team. The offense has gotten significant boosts, the defense has gotten significant boosts, and the moves make sense both for the short term and the long term. Like you, the more I come to understand who these drafted rookies are, the more I think Beane is a young master at his craft. Imagine what he's going to do as he gains experience! Pegulas have to write checks for Beane and McDermott that are as big as Beane and McDermott want. The Bills could become the best team in the league, and possibly by a wide margin. -
Having listened to Cosell, now I understand why I'm excited about this draft. Liking Elam is a given, whether you like the trade up or not. Here's what Cosell said about Cook: The OC's job is to make the QB's job as easy as possible. The less the QB has to think about what to, the more he can just think about executing, so the big thing you can do for the QB is to allow him to know what the defense will, and to know it as soon as possible. Post-snap reads make things difficult for the QB. When a guy like Cook, a true dual threat, is in the huddle, the Defensive Coordinator doesn't know if he's defending a heavy pass formation or a heavy run formation, because he doesn't know where Cook will be positioned. That forces the DC to go to his base defense, whatever that is, to have the best chance at defending whatever is coming. And when that happens, the OC has done his job, because the QB knows he's looking at the base defense, and he knows where he's supposed to attack the base defense. Running holes get bigger, one receiver or another gets free in open space, either because he had a mismatch or because of where the defense is forced to leave big seams in the zone. That's what Cook can do for a team, and there aren't many teams that have a guy like that. And then it dawned on me that Bernard is the opposite side of the same story. The Bills played a lot of nickel last season - it was their base defense. I think Cosell said they led the league, so the QB always had a good idea of where to attack the Bills. If Bernard can make the grade, the 4-3 will become the base defense. And one would think that then the Bills would be vulnerable to versatility just like other teams will be vulnerable to the Bills with Cook in the lineup. But, no. With Bernard in the lineup, they can be 4-3 or in nickel, interchangeably, because Bernard can be a safety, or Bernard occasionally may even be a nickel back. Bernard can take the tight end, leaving a safety free to roam. The point is that Cook can force Bills' opponents to go to their base defense, and Bernard can make it difficult for other teams to do the same to them.
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Rd 3, Pick 89 (25): LB Terrell Bernard, Baylor
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Thanks. Good explanation, and I can't really argue with it. McDermott could explain to you why he prefers quick to heavy. Like you, he wants physical, but his belief is that he can be better with quick guys being as physical as they can be rather than sacrificing speed for guys whose size permits them to be more physical. Still, my comment about getting used holds, since the defense is going to fit McDermott's preferences rather than yours. I do worry that his vision of the defense has a problem, and I've mentioned this more in terms of the last season's defensive stats. The Bills were about the least-dominant looking, league leading defense I can recall. Our image of a great defense is one that over powers the offense. That's not these guys, and that's why they don't LOOK like a #1 defense. I think the potential problem with a defense like this is that over the course of the season, on average, it's the best defense, but when you get to the playoffs you aren't playing against average. You're playing against the best, and then the lack of power can be a liability. I think we may have similar views in that regard. -
Rd 2, Pick 63 (31): RB James Cook, Georgia
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Now, of course, we're just talking about what he COULD be. I find my judgment about which college runners have skills that will translate to the pros isn't very good. But what we're saying is that if he succeeds, it won't as just another running back. He will add a different dimension to the offense, something that very few teams have. A guy like that generally only works on a team with a really good offense. On a weaker offense, you're forced to give the guy the ball too much. On a good team, a like that has limited touches, but each touch is a big opportunity. The Bills have a good offense. If Cook makes it, he'll take the offense to another level. What am I talking about? If you want to see the difference an extra dimension can make, imagine the Bills with Drew Brees at QB. Good offense, right? I mean, Brees is going to complete just about all the passes the Bills complete already. But the Bills have Allen, and Allen adds an extra dimension. He gives his team all the good quarterbacking, plus something most other teams don't have. Cook could energize the offense another notch in the same way Allen does. -
Rd 2, Pick 63 (31): RB James Cook, Georgia
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
I agree with this. I'm falling in love with these draft choices as I read more and more. What I'm about to say is not intended to say that Cook is/will be as good as Marshall Faulk or Edgerrin James or Thurman Thomas; it's intended just to give examples of the kind of role Cook could play in the offense. Those three guys all were running backs first and foremost, but they were excellent in the passing game. They were primary passing threats, not just some back we dump the ball off to. Teams had to worry about where those guys were in the pass pattern. Cook could be that kind of guy, a guy who threatens on every play to beat you running or receiving. Could he be as good as the best? Well, Faulk and James were high picks, but Thurman went 40th. It's not always obvious how well players will develop. (Thurman was great as a sophomore, injured as a junior, and great as a senior. Barry Sanders couldn't take the starting job from him! And he got drafted 40th!) Imagine the impact a guy would have on this offense if he could play like Thurman. So, yeah, if Singletary were unhappy with his load shrinking, the Bills would with Cook and shrink Motor more. The reason Singletary's load would be shrinking would be because the Cook thing was working. -
Rd 2, Pick 63 (31): RB James Cook, Georgia
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
This is excellent! Thanks. I do recall that they played a lot of man early in the season, which was viewed generally as some level of confidence in Wallace - Wallace can survive in man against their #2. He'd even get the #1 occasionally, because White wasn't exclusively on the #1 when they were in man. Once White went down, if the Bills wanted to be in man, it had to be with Wallace on the #1, because no wanted Jackson to have a steady diet of the #1 guy. So, they played more zone. Once White gets back, they've solved this problem. Bills will play zone when they want to, and will play man when they want to, because White and Elam will be able to play either way, and at a high level. By late in the season, Elam should have at least a decent working concept of the zone principles. But I don't think it had anything to do with What Went Wrong. I'm sure Frazier and McDermott knew they were hamstrung by this deficiency before they hit the playoffs. In their week-to-week game planning, they were living with the problem, and that is why they went to more zone. What Went Wrong was just the painful proof of concept. -
The whole thing is like a dream playing out in slow motion over five years.
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6'8" wouldn't have been enough for me. 6'11", maybe. I actually think it's a good point. I think we could see how focused and motivated Beane was. McDermott is at least as motivated. And the players. Their level of intensity is cranked up, for sure. Just like Beane, everyone else wants to get better. It will make a difference.
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Rd 3, Pick 89 (25): LB Terrell Bernard, Baylor
Shaw66 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Interesting comments from you and others. The height movement has been obvious. Weight a bit, too, but i think the emphasis on the lines is still mobility - Spencer Brown isn't your common plodding right tackle. Bates and Morse, too. It's quickness, execution, decisiveness. Both offense and defense.
