Shaw66

I haven't looked at this thread at all, so I don't know what's been said. Tonight, the question seemed interesting to me, so I'll write a bit. I think the answer is yes. Joe Brady is the problem. I think a black and white answer like that is a bit unfair to Brady, but ultimately, yes, he is the problem. Here's why I think that: I think defenses have gotten better and better over the past five years. And to give McDermott some credit, his defenses were ahead of the curve. You look around the league now and you see everyone doing what looks like the Bills' standard defense: Rush four, drop seven, DO NOT GIVE UP THE DEEP BALL. Force the offense to run long drives to get to the red zone, and once they're in the red zone, your zone tightens up and your defense gets stingy. Rotate your DL. Teams have gotten really good at that, including teams with better talent than the Bills. The result is that pretty much all teams are having a lot more trouble passing. That kind of defense for the Bills was how they were able to stop the Chiefs so often in the regular season. Now, many teams are playing like that, and the Chiefs are having more trouble. Nobody is winning with great superstar receivers. Well, the Cowboys are, but the Cowboys' bubble always bursts, and I think it will again this season. So, what does that say about the teams that have successful offenses. One, they run the ball, so there's that. But some can pass pretty effectively. The Bills are actually better than most, at least in terms of yards per game. But in all their losses, the Bills scored 20 or fewer points. It was the offense stagnating that lost the game. It's not the receivers who are the problem. The defenses are, like defense around the league, forcing the Bills to throw underneath. Good teams do it effectively, not because they have deep threats, but because they have schemes that get guys open underneath, on time, in places where Josh expects to find them. One way or another, that's on Brady. Either his routes are predictable, his receivers aren't running them, or Josh doesn't understand them. Samuels and Palmer and Moore all have had consistently better seasons on other teams, Knox and Kincaid have underperformed their potential. Josh has shown in the past that he was good at the route trees and the decision making. Defenses have caught up to Brady, and Brady hasn't compensated.

Oh, for sure. I'm not confident. I don't think they'll win the division, and I don't think they can run the table on the road in the playoffs. However, as you said, there's upside. There are the ingredients for a great run, the kind of runs we see regularly in the NFL. I was encouraged.

I'm not predicting that the Bills won't lose again, but this was an encouraging win. First, people aren't giving the defense enough credit. The defense completely shut down the Steelers. Completely. They're scoring 23 points a game, and they could nothing against the Bills. Second, the run game. Third, the depth they showed, playing without the starting tackles and the starting middle linebacker. Fourth, their focus. They were really dialed in. They may get Kincaid back soon, and Palmer. And Cooks probably will be worked into the offense more. So there's a lot that could make the passing game better. Oh, and it looked like the wind made passing pretty tough today. Nice to see Sanders out there, and maybe we'll see Oliver in a few weeks. The Bills look like they're ready for December.

But the stats are that the Bills are 23rd (10th best) in missed tackles. https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/nfl-teams-with-most-missed-tackles-this-season-bm10/#:~:text=One of the biggest keys to having,the most missed tackles during the 2025 The Bills tackle well. Yards after contact is a different stat. Not every contact is a missed tackle.

This means you don't understand the passer rating. It is a measure of success pass by pass, not game by game. A good passer rating means you're better at pass defense than a bad passer rating. Period

I don't. I think the Bills always saw in Shavers what some people are seeing in him now. They also saw that he had a lot to learn. Finally, they saw a guy who was willing to put in the time, work, and learn. He kept getting better every season. And he kept getting closer to making the roster. I think what we're seeing is McDermott's patience with the guy paying off. What I really like is that Shavers, Palmer, and Davis present big targets to Josh, and I think Josh is comfortable throwing at those targets. He looked different yesterday. The touchdown to Shavers looked very much like several touchdowns. We saw Josh throw to Davis in earlier seasons.

I think we will see some different things as we get deeper into the season. I said earlier in the year, and I'll say it again, that I think later in the season we're going to see more man-to-man. It will be sprinkled in, but there will be more of it. I think. Think Benford, White and Hairston all can play it. I also think we will begin to see more blitzing paired with the man-to-man. There's been very little blitzing so far this year, and I think that will change. On top of that, I think we will see the zone defenses tightening down a bit. One reason all of those passes get completed underneath the corners is because they're playing deep enough to prevent the deep ball from being in play at all. I think it's been McDermott's plan all along to tighten up the zone coverages as the season goes on and as his young defenders learn the schemes. But I don't think the pass defense is the problem. It's the run defense that has to be much more consistent. McDermott has been clear for years that he's willing to give up running yardage in order to stop the passing game, and the stance. This season is similar to other seasons. We're at the top of the league in past defense and in the middle of the league and run defense., this season we're at the bottom of the league and run defense.

I liked how he played the ball on the touchdown catch. It wasn't a perfect throw but he had his eyes on the ball all the way and got his hands in a really good catching position. It was nicely done. It's the kind of play of professional pass catcher makes. That was encouraging. Last week someone said his his blocking is always good. It was interesting that on Johnson's touchdown catch, he followed the play all the way down the field and got in the way of the last possible tackler. That was just solid at football, doing your job.

Yeah. Right!

I agree. All Beane did was get Bosa, Sanders, Walker, Hoecht, Ogunjobi, and Lawson. I'm surprised Beane still has a job.

What defensive weak spots? The Bills have the 6th best defensive passer rating in the league. They're 31st in the league in yards per game rushing. Pass defense is not a weakness.

I really have my doubts about passes for analysis around here. Everyone is on the Bishop bandwagon, and so am I. He's been improving since late last season, and he's making plays all over the place. Everyone also seems to think Poyer has nothing left and is a weakness. I'd suggest watching the games. Yesterday he made a lot of tackles in the running game, and he made some really nice plays on the ball in pass defense. Nearly had an interception in the end zone. Check the stats, folks - he had 15 tackles yesterday. 15! Hancock looked solid earlier in the season and is now getting worked into more playing time. I think the Bills are solid and safety and will be better in a month.

SRO at the harp in Boston! Love it!

Yes and yes.

Huh? He played high school ball in South Carolina. He was an Army brat. When was he in Buffalo?

When I saw the title of this thread, I assumed he must be a basketball prospect. It didn't even occur to me that a blue chip football player was coming out of Buffalo. Really cool. Good for him.

I'm still not sure there's no place like it, but I've been to a lot of places that AREN'T like Buffalo. I went to the Jets and to the Panthers games this season, and both places were downright embarrassing to their franchises and fan bases. I hadn't seen the Kelce quote. Amazing to have someone like him make that comment. It verifies that what we feel in the stadium is real. The Chiefs game Sunday was one of the best at Highmark, but there have been so many, it's impossible to name them all. Chiefs last season was amazing, too. Ferguson and Kelly standing in the end zone, both wearing their blue number 12 jerseys, leading the pre-kickoff cheer, was an unexpected emotional moment for me. Those two guys that we cheered for during all of those games, all of the great moments they brought us, both of them then surviving cancer, seeing them out there was just so great. Too bad Kemp couldn't have been out there, too. Jack and Joe and Jim and Josh. I've been promoting my book by talking to Bills fans. I was at the Saturday night party at the Tavern by the Tracks in Charlotte, introducing myself and chatting with folks about them and me and my book. I was at the tail gate parties at Highmark for the Chiefs game. I chatted with folks at my hotel. At first, I felt awkward, introducing myself and talking about myself, but pretty quickly I realized that these were all Bills fans, and Bills fans are just great. Practically everyone was interested in talking to me, and very quickly we were sharing stories about where we grew up, what games we'd been to, how great it is to be able to go to these games and share them with each other. I doubt we'll lose it when everything moves across the street to the new place, but maybe we will. Either way, we should be sure to appreciate what we've had together as fans for all these years. GO BILLS!!!

That is, whether we like it or not, exactly what McDermott intends. As for 20+ yard plays correlating with touchdown drives, I'd guess that's true for every team.

Thanks for this. Good stuff. I don't completely agree that coordinators are not worried about the Bills going deep. In the piece by Kubiak in the news that someone discussed, Kubiak said that teams are playing two deep a lot against the Bills. Right after I read I happened to see a replay from the Chiefs all-22, also in a thread, where Allen threw to Shakir, I think, in the right flat for a nice gain. It was just what Kubiak said - two deep safeties. And the play worked in part because those guys were so deep. Once Shakir beat the first defenders, he had a lot of running room, precisely because the safeties were still 15 yards away. Whatever. I really the last sentence. The Bills didn't make that choice this week. They made if eight weeks ago, if not four months ago. This is the way they want to play. It doesn't make sense to you. To me, I sort of get it, but it sure seems odd to choose that style. And the big problem that we've often mentioned is that what they've actually is a good style for piling up wins in the regular season, but it puts the team at a disadvantage in the playoffs, where the talent and intensity goes up. It's in those games where a true deep threat can be valuable, if only to stretch the defense.

This is a really good take. I mean, I don't know the talent well enough to know if there was a guy who would really help, but I agree that Beane needs to, and apparently did, operate with brains and not overspend out of desperation. In thinking about the additions the Bills might have needed and gotten, began to have different view of how they run their personnel. When the Bills need a guy at a position because a starter has gone down, they don't sign free agents to replace the injured guy. They promote from within, and they sign a free agent with potential to grow and block him into the bottom on the depth chart, on the practice squad. Then they work their way up, maybe passing someone, maybe just waiting in line. The Bills do that because what's most important to them is having the guys on the field execute their assignments. They don't want to take a talented free agent and plug him into a system where he doesn't know or do his assignment consistently. Even the vets they brought back have had to work their way up from the bottom. Poyer, Philips, Gabe Davis. Tre White. That philosophy makes the Bills less likely to make a splash at the trade deadline, because the Bills prefer to fill holes with the next guy in line in the system.

And it also explains why Allen went from the fake to Shakir, the look at Shavers, then the look over the middle, and then around to Davis in the flat. When he looked over the middle, he wasn't looking for Moore crossing - he was looking for Kincaid.

I don't agree. Allen didn't even stop to consider the throw to Moore. He moved his feet to be in position to throw to him and immediately moved his feet in order to make an off-balance throw to Davis. If the Bills don't want him making that throw, then I'll say more emphatically, the Bills need a new offensive coordinator. As I said earlier, Mahomes makes that throw to JuJu, and Andy Reid wants it all day.

One other thing about all of this. It's interesting and instructive that we're talking about the offense, particularly the passing game, after a 40-9 blowout win. Why is it interesting and instructive? Because we're all seeing the same thing, even against the Panthers: The offense is not very effective. Bills were winning 6-0 in a game where in most seasons it would have been 14-0. We're seeing Josh, look confused and get sacked. We're seeing bad throws, missed open receivers. We've seen the Bills lose two games where they gave up 23 and 24 points; in each game the offense was ineffective, and the Bills lost more because they couldn't score than because the defense let them down. It's been pretty ugly. Take away the gaping holes the Panthers kept giving up in the run game and a couple of big defensive plays, and the Bills would have found themselves in another tight game. Something has to change.

Moore is supposed to get the ball on that play I think you've described the play accurately. Watch Allen's feet. He sets his feet to fake the throw on the screen, then he resets to look downfield. Shavers is covered AND the safety has turned to go that way, too. Allen resets his feet a third time, just as he was taught, to be in position to throw to Moore, but almost immediately resets to find the outlet in the left flat. It's a mistake by Allen. His feet do what he's supposed to do, but his brain doesn't. The play design is if he doesn't have the throw to Shavers, he's supposed to come off Shavers and find Moore. He knows he has Moore in single coverage because he's just seen the safety break to help on Shavers. He sets his feet to make the throw to Moore and then comes off it almost immediately. The play is designed for him to make one of three choices - Shavers, Moore, Davis. He had Moore and rushed right through the choice.

No way. In the first place, the defender is clearly trailing Moore, and Allen can lead him either across the end zone or throw it shorter and let Moore go down for the ball inside the five. Either way, the only way the defender can make a play is by going through Moore, and then they get the interference call. If, as you say, Allen can make the throw, it's a gimme touchdown. Should he throw it to Moore? Absolutely! What makes you think he shouldn't throw it to him? Because Moore only has five receptions season? Moore's a quality NFL receiver. He's not a star, but he's a quality receiver. 80 receptions in 8 games his last year of college, drafted 34th overall, averaged 50 catches a year in his first four seasons in the league playing on lousy teams with lousy quarterbacks. Yes, you absolutely throw the ball to him. JuJu Smith-Schuster averages 50 receptions a year. You think Mahomes doesn't throw that ball? I think Brady has Allen all screwed up.