transplantbillsfan

Weird. I'd love to know who wants which QB to start. Last time, from my understanding, Dennison was the driving factor to start Peterman.

So... this is not the poster I was thinking it was. FWIW the poster I'm thinking of is on another message board and yesterday made this exact same statement that Peterman would be starting. He has been right about a whole lot of things lately and I know he knows someone. However, today he retracted that statement and said that now "if Taylor can take a snap, he plays." So, who knows?

What about 21?

As a QB? Are you just trying to argue? I think, and have thought, we will and should draft a QB in the first. I think, and have thought, that if 2017 isn't Taylor's last year in Buffalo, 2018 will be after the rookie gets a year on the bench to learn. And I think, and have thought, and have always thought that if we could clearly upgrade from Taylor, we should. You want to argue that he's 28th rather than 24th or 30th rather than 22nd or 27th rather than 17th or... etc? Why? And what exactly does it have to do with the subject of this thread? Regardless of whatever I think about where Taylor ranks on a whole as a QB, he's actually pretty good on 3rd down having improved every year as a starter. That much is fact, regardless of wherever he ranks on the spectrum of starting NFL QBs as a whole.

And another reality check for these 3rd and long plays is that he also scrambled on 3rd and long 4 times and got a first down 3 times. So his actual conversion % on 3rd and long is 30.2%, not 27.1%. You'd have to look for 3rd and long scramble conversions for every other NFL QB to properly rank him, but % wise that boosts him from 19th to 13th; from below average to above average. My guess is other than Alex Smith and Russell Wilson there won't be too many 3rd and long scrambles.

Well I think it has to do with how hypercritical people have been of Taylor on third down during his tenure in Buffalo, which I think branched off the whole idea that he's not "clutch enough." Do you have those numbers you're alluding to?

-1 rush, -2 rush, 2 yard run, 3 yard run, 37 yard run, -1 yard run is going to look like an RB who's averaging 6+ YPC, but is that really very good for your offense? Yes, he's 19th out of 36 upon facing a higher raw number of 3rd downs than any other QB save Phillip Rivers.

The moment Taylor was injured and left the field in the cart last Sunday I really thought would be the last time we'd see him under center for the Bills, barring an injury to Peterman. But then McDermott said flat-out that Taylor is the starter when healthy. So, despite the fact that I actually believe the OP, I'm eager to see how the hell this plays out. I would say there's no way Peterman can be worse than he was in the Chargers game, but in the week leading up to the Chargers game I also said he couldn't be worse than Taylor in the Saints game. Obvious mistake on my part. Who knows. This will be the least excited for a W I've ever been, mainly because I think we'll win and we should win easily. I'll probably feel the same way beating the 'Phins next week if we do. That Patriots loss just took a lot out of me. Despite that, I'm rooting for Ws and, who knows, maybe I'll feel much differently come Monday

If this is who I think it is, I'm pretty sure it's inside info and he'll be right.

Doc, eh? Do I know you? Do you have $5 to offer up for this?

Ahhh... my bad... those were fire emojis. Couldn't tell. Yes, a lot of your emojis look the same to me. And I loathe emojis, anyway. I can't read them

But it twists your perception of what happens elsewhere to the point where you just look like your Trolling or foolish. Saying things like our offense was crap against San Francisco is almost too ridiculous to comprehend. Our offense put up almost 500 yards in that game.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report Okay, and this is a few weeks old... it was actually generated 2 days before the Chargers game, so it doesn't include the half from the Chargers game Taylor played, the Chiefs game, or the half+ from the Pats game, but you'll see that Taylor is tied, at that point, for the 3rd most "average need yards for a first down" on 3rd down. So, again, we have work to do on 1st and 2nd down moreso than 3rd down.

See, statements like this really makes me think you don't actually watch the games.

Yeah, it's how bad the offense is on 1st and 2nd downs, obviously. Just think of all those negative rushing plays by McCoy and Tolbert on 1st and 2nd down. If you were even remotely objective you'd know that the Lion's share of blame for our constant 8+ yards to go on 3rd down goes to our inconsistent (at best) to woeful rushing attack.

Yes, Taylor also scrambles on 3rd down. In fact, Taylor has scrambled on 3rd down 15 times. He converted 10 of those scrambles for 1st downs. Overall, on 3rd down passing plays, which include plays where the ball leaves his hand, sacks, AND scrambles, Taylor's 3rd down conversion % is 43.4% as he is 53/122 on such plays. A 43.4% conversion rate on 3rd down is actually good. Taylor also has had a few designed runs he's converted on 3rd down, including 1 rushing TD. 55% of the time he's asked to pass on 3rd down it's for 8+ yards... higher % than any other QB in the NFL.

Well, go here: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=047&type=Passing&year=2017 You'll see that by percentage Taylor has a higher percentage of 3rd and 8+ yards to go on 3rd down. Rivers has more, but also has more 3rd down attempts so he has a lower %. Stafford has the same number, but also has more 3rd downs. I can't find an exact number anywhere for distance to go on 3rd down. I'm pretty sure Happydays put something out a few weeks ago regarding Footballoutsiders metric ALEX that showed a stat that measured that and Taylor had the most or 2nd most in the league at that point in terms of distance to the sticks. I can't say it definitively, but just watching how often our run game gets stuffed for negative yardage I'll just call it a gut feeling. I'd put money on us being top 3 in most negative yard runs on 1st and 2nd down, though.

The same link I provided in my previous post: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017

Taylor has 107 "passing plays" on 3rd down. Keep in mind, those account for sacks, as well. Tom Brady has 110 passing plays. So no, Taylor's overall attempts on 3rd down really aren't that low, especially given the fact that he sat out roughly the equivalent of an entire game at this point.

I bet we league the league in negative rushes by a RB on 1st and 2nd down. I can't find that stat, anywhere, but there's the biggest reason we have the longest distance to go on 3rd down of probably any other team in the entire NFL.

She wouldn't be wearing that at New Era this Sunday

Just getting easier and easier... like takin candy from a baby

24 points off turnovers... HAS NEVER HAPPENED for Taylor. It was almost 27 if Novak doesn't miss a 46 yard FG. 7 of those points were a gift and 17 of those points the Chargers offense... and again, coulda been 20. Peterman's 4 interceptions gave the Chargers starting field positions in Buffalo territory twice, in our red zone once, and the other one was just on the Chargers' side of midfield. Would Taylor have won that game? I don't know. But saying it's absurd that he might have won is an absurd statement in itself. It was a game we lost almost solely because of Peterman. Because Peterman did something a lot that Taylor rarely does. I was fine with Taylor's benching because his play in the Saints game was terrible and I figured McDermott, having watched Peterman in practice and Training Camp, felt he was ready to take the reins. Instead, we went from terrible to an absolute dumpster fire. And you talk as though most people share your beliefs on that whole situation. I think that's awfully presumptuous of you.

I don't know... I wonder how much the players are in McDermott's ear right now. I'm really going to be intrigued to see who starts Sunday. I wish this little chess game was being played against a better team than the Colts, though. No it's absolutely not even remotely close to "just as credible." That's totally ridiculous. Taylor was the only player in a Buffalo Bills uniform who played well against the Jets, other than Zay Jones. Peterman would've been murdered! Especially in primetime on national TV under those lights. Can I say that 100%? No, obviously not. But it's ridiculously far-fetched and laughable for you to say it's an equal statement that Peterman might have gotten a win in a game where the only good player was our QB and we lost that game BECAUSE of our atrocious Defense vs. Taylor might have gotten a win where FAR AND AWAY the reason we lost that game against the Chargers was because our QB threw 5 picks in one half! It's not just as credible. Not even close.

I think the fans are going to cheer for either one and are going to boo very quickly if/when either one starts to look inadequate. Sure, there are going to be some who boo or don't cheer for one of those QBs and does for the other. You're one of those, apparently. But as a whole I think Bills fans just want to see their team win and go into the beginning of any game with some semblance of optimism. Overall I'd guess fans just know this is likely the farewell tour for Taylor if he starts and that we'll be seeing our future Franchise QB (hopefully) drafted in the 1st round next year. The Jets game was the start and fall (not the end, yet, because we're still "in it") of the WC hopes, yet it was one of Taylor's better games in a Bills uniform. And he followed that up with his worst. Taylor just is what he is, which is not nearly as bad as some make him out to be. And we'll be drafting his replacement and (hopefully) an upgrade over him in the 1st round of the upcoming draft, anyway. What a cat and mouse game. Whoever starts at QB is going to be very telling, I think. If Taylor starts... wow... that's really an indictment of Peterman and I think it also shows that McDermott might be overcompensating for the mistake he made benching Taylor in the Chargers game. I actually kinda think the right move for McDermott here is to start Peterman, largely because this is an open opportunity for him to do that and move on from Taylor, as he (or Dennison... ?) seems to want to. If Peterman starts... this was such a weird little game he played all week against an inferior team. I don't care who's under center, I expect us to win this game. I used to be superstitious about saying that, but now that I have mixed feelings about winning vs. losing, I think we'll win. And if Peterman starts and plays well, I'll be surprised if McDermott sticks to his word and starts Taylor again when he's fully healthy. Why did McDermott even backtrack and say that? Just strange.