transplantbillsfan

My "leap" was based on the earlier criticism of me even starting this thread because of Gunner's thread stating that Mayfield and Rosen were off the our board. Might not be true, but that was my basis... not something I randomly came up with.

All fair enough. I'm just going by what was public in terms of pre draft meetings... and there were plenty with Mayfield and Rosen. The injury history may have been a concern, but I'm a little mystified that you would think personality would not be something Beane and particularly McDermott are very very seriously considering in building a roster... or that personality for the 2 biggest red flagged QBs of the draft couldn't have possibly been a part of reportedly taking both guys off their board.

Steve Wyche: "If Josh Allen is going to get playing time this year he's got to get it out of the gate" http://www.wgr550.com/articles/news/steve-wyche-if-josh-allen-going-get-playing-time-year-hes-got-get-it-out-gate "McCarron is a young guy that really hasn't had a break. I think he'll compete like hell, he'll be a good leader in that locker room. I think the competitive edge he'll have will at least let him start the season. I think the Bills have a good enough team to win plenty of games with him as the starter. That could make the transition to Josh Allen tough, which is why I think if Josh Allen is going to get playing time this year, he's got to get it out of the gate."

You might not care, but the Bills might have. The thing is... there's a pretty decent chance that him being a douche is a contributing factor to him being the 4th QB drafted and why several teams (including the Bills, apparently) took him off their boards completely. Hell, there were reports on Buffalo looking at Rosen up to draft day. https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/04/buffalo_bills_did_late_work_on_ucla_qb_josh_rosen_says_jason_lacanfora.amp They did some late work on Rosen, doubling back with people who know him well, going over his personality and how to reach him and connect with him. I guess I'll just ask this--if it was all about injury history and risk as to why the Bills took both Mayfield and Rosen off their boards, why did they waste so much time in one-on-one's with them (I think Beane spent significantly more time with those 2 than with Allen) and even use 2 of our limited pre draft visits getting to know them?

Didn't realize he had knee injuries... at this point I just think he's a total douche who would never fit into WNY.

That RI thing is still truly baffling to me.

This was discussed a bit in another thread and I believe it was Shaw and another poster who brought up the distinction between upper body vs lower body mechanics where, ultimately, upper body mechanics aren't a significant worry, lower mechanics are: Upper Body Mechanics = how you throw... it's something you've been doing since you picked up a football when you were very young so it's nearly impossible to change. See Phillip Rivers or Byron Leftwich... and I'm assuming the Jets will just deal with Darnold's weird windup because he's still effective with it. Allen looks like a natural thrower of the football--so not as big a worry, I think. Lower Body Mechanics/ Footwork = what you're probably taught in terms of dropping back from a snap under center at earliest, in middle school (I played QB in pop warner and don't think there was much more than a "don't trip over yourself" conversation), but probably more like JV or Varsity ball. At this point, you're fine-tuning, but there's very little hope to change your actual throwing motion. EJ had (among other things) some serious upper body mechanics issues--he just didn't look like a natural passer of the football, and I think it's that simple. Allen looks like a natural passer of the football, so I'm not overly concerned.

What I think is interesting are the categories below because they are the 2 he's deemed the weakest in. The first he's graded tied for #1 with Rosen and the 2nd he's tied for #2 with a couple of the other guys behind Rosen. Arm Ability & Throwing Mechanics Allen has elite arm strength. He can put great velocity on the ball and does so with an effortless throwing motion. His release is quick and he can make throws without using his lower body. In addition, he can throw off a variety of platforms—his feet match his eyes and he can get aligned multiple times if necessary. At times, he can be a long strider in the pocket but only appears to do this when there is room. He can make every throw necessary to play quarterback in the NFL and he can do all these throws with defenders around him and with limited space in the pocket. GRADE: 9.0 Drop/Setup/Alignment He shows the ability to play under center and in shotgun. His drop mechanics are smooth and balanced, as he does not over extend despite his height. Allen has a very compact and efficient drop for being 6-5. He does an excellent job of opening his hips up when dropping from under center and seeing the entire field. He sets up with a balanced and aligned throwing position. GRADE: 8.0

Jordan Palmer is now apparently an incredibly highly respected "QB Guru" despite not being able to play the position worth a damn. At the very least, Fairchild has probably seen enough bad QB play to know what good QB play should look like.

I think Shady has a couple really solid years left in his career and, truthfully, I believe if McDermott and Beane were remotely accurate in their assessment of Allen, then we'll compete for a Championship in the 2019 regular season. I think he plays out his contract.

Well it might be a statistically significant difference in relation to a the most important position in sports. It might be the difference between being one of those 10-15 Franchise QBs in the NFL there are just about every year vs. the JAGs of the NFL.

Thanks for posting this. These are pretty interesting and thorough. Just like Jordan Palmer sucked as a QB but seems great working with them, maybe whole Fairchild sucked working with QBs as an OC it seems he evaluates them well, or at least thoughtfully. I particularly think the 15 categories he uses for all the QBs is an awesome detailed little comparative measure. Fairchild's 15 categories: Size & Athletic Ability Statistics & Production Arm Ability & Throwing Mechanics Drop/Setup/Alignment Quick Game Performance/Accuracy (Three-Step) Quick Game Performance/Accuracy (Five-Step) Intermediate Throw Performance/Accuracy (Seven-Step) Deep Ball Performance/Accuracy (35+ Yards) Timing/Vision-Processing/Anticipation Designed Movement Throws Pocket Demeanor & Movement Unique Throws Poise & Performance In Critical Situations Decision-Making  Ability To Scramble/Extend Plays

Hey breh.... I'm not the one who brought Luck into this conversation, Figster did, I was responding to his point, so please put your jump to conclusions mat back in your closet.

Can I honestly say that? No more than you can honestly say they aren't. You're talking like Beane drafted Josh Allen after spending the offseason not worrying about the rest of the team. Shady and Ivory and Cadet is a good, maybe extremely good backfield... much better than last year simply by letting go of Tolbert. Clay is a really good TE. O'leary I honestly think will be productive in the NFL for a long time. Logan Thomas has tons of potential for a TE. Benjamin is at least a true #1 WR. McDermott I assume had plenty of input in last year's draft, so I'd say he still has confidence Jones can be a capable #2, but besides him there are players like Reilly and Streater who I'm excited to see along with the vet Kerley and some other players. Our WR corps is already better than last year just with a healthy Benjamin. As I said, the OL is the biggest question mark, but just because it's a question mark means it's automatically going to be worse so don't start the rookie. They might be better than last year. They might be pretty good. Will you still have faith in the process if Allen is named starting QB week 1?

Well apparently then you're just in Thurman#1's court, saying that it's obviously better that Allen sits on the bench because that would obviously be better for his development...? I disagree. It might be. It might not be. Andrew Luck didn't have anyone around him on his team. That's the responsibility of the GM. It really has little to do with Luck being ready to start as a rookie, it has to do with the GM who didn't surround him with any talent and didn't protect him properly with a good OL. Trent Edwards, I think, is a completely different case. He got shell-shocked after Adrian Wilson knocked him out of that game against Arizona. The Bills have significantly more talent than the Colts had in 2012. We have a really good stable of RBs, solid group of TEs, one very good WR and a bunch of unknowns who are still pretty promising, and our OL, while maybe the biggest question mark, I'd say is at least not horrible and might actually be significantly better than last year. But aside from all of that, if Allen is clearly the best QB during the Summer with Training Camp and the preseason and all the vets on the team see that (which they obviously would) and McDermott still names McCarron, rather than Allen the starter... well...

Well... our OL is part of the question mark with this team, obviously. If the OL is absolutely porous and terrible, I'd prefer throwing McCarron to the wolves. But if our OL is not great, but is at least "okay," I think Allen's the better option, anyway, considering his mobility. Personally, I think our OL may actually improve from last year despite the departures. Cordy Glenn is no loss because he never played last year, anyway. Dawkins was pretty decent as a rookie, and will hopefully take another step. Mills was a pleasant surprise last year... but we also signed another veteran T in free agency who might push him. I'm not really that worried about our interior OL. I'm actually excited to see what Groy can do and Bodine has plenty of NFL starting experience. Plus hopefully John Miller makes a leap and the Guard we drafted in the 5th round gets comparisons to Richie. Our OL won't be fantastic, but as long as they prove to be average and not terrible, I still think Allen is the better option under center.

Why Chris Simms thinks Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen could be rookie of the year https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/05/why_chris_simms_thinks_buffalo_bills_qb_josh_allen_could_be_rookie_of_the_year.amp He's only had a few practices, but Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is already generating some rookie of the year buzz. Vegas was first to get in on the action, giving Allen the third best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at plus-900. Only Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield and New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley, who were drafted first and second overall, have better odds. and "I might get some push back here," Simms said. "There's people who think he's going to be a bust. I have tremendous confidence in this kid's talent, and I think he is going to be the starter from day one. This is a Buffalo Bills football team that was a good football team that I think has a good support system around him. They should be able to run the football. They're going to be able to protect him. Weapons on the outside are not great. But I do think within that offense and some of the things we talked about, their defense being good, I think he can have a good enough year statistically and wins wise to where he's in this conversation for rookie of the year."

I just think, unlike EJ, he's going to be fine starting right away. EJ had some serious issues in terms of his upper body mechanics... it just didn't look natural. Plus there seemed to be some problems above the shoulders--he just couldn't get out of his own head. As much as footwork may or may not still be an issue, Allen looks like a natural passer. NFL QBs, even young ones, aren't the equivalent of the $6 million man... you don't just tear them down and build them back up the way some people have suggested should happen for both Darnold and Allen. These are 20 something year olds who have thrown probably thousands of passes. Getting rid of all the old habits is impossible because... well... they're human. Has there ever been a QB who's drastically improved his footwork/mechanics after sitting on the bench to start his NFL career and those improvements have stuck?

Who cares??? We're winning more than 2 games. The national sports media is truly a bunch of idiots. In the last few days I heard Kurt Warner say that Josh Allen, AJ McCarron and Nate Peterman were all basically the same guy because they're all just immobile pocket passers and Colin Cowherd also said that Allen was likely to bust because he would have to be strictly a pocket passser because he doesn't have the athleticism of Carson Wentz

Josh Allen... starting Bills QB week 1 in Baltimore... I've been thinking it'd happen... might as well just call it now

Well... we don't have Tolbert on the field anymore... so that can only help

Oh holy hell... Teeflebees is Royale with Cheese?!

My god... if I ever hear the phrase "set the hallway" again from anyone I'm gonna stick it in their hallway Really though... solid article, but the ending is what I care about right now... if his mechanics have been fixed... let him play. They're never ever going to be perfect for any QB: Leading up to the draft we heard that Allen was working with former NFL quarterback Jordan Palmer, which Allen even mentioned in his initial press conference. His work with Palmer was noticeable in all of the Draft Season events, such as the Senior Bowl, Scouting Combine, and even his Pro Day. Some of the issues that I highlighted, like his erratic footwork, lack of balance, unnecessary head/eye movement, setting the hallway, and stepping on the midline and tilting and slashing, seemed to be straightened out. Here are some clips from last season and then from Allen’s Pro Day. What a difference. Smooth drops, light feet, great balance, and efficient movements. Thanks. I think how quickly and dra These 2 posts about sum it up for me When I've watched even the videos talking about what Allen did wrong, I still thought he looked good throwing the football. That's not how I felt about EJ, who looked like a robot, and I think got worse with time. Here are my reasons for getting behind Allen very quickly after loathing the pick initially and believing he's going to be the starter most of the season: Natural Passer (ties in with all the upper body mechanics stuff already talked about, but I think the fact that he was a HS pitcher who threw a 92 MPH fastball as a Senior helps) + Natural Physical Talent/Stature/Athleticism + Natural Smarts + Extremely Late Bloomer (makes me mostly dismiss the analytics) + Farmboy Upbringing + Perfect Attitude (which includes what appears to be a good blend of humility and confidence)

Some analysis by omission here. Brees sat behind Flutie who had just been shafted for a year by the Bills by being 2nd string to Rob Johnson after being a Pro Bowler and NFL Comeback player in 1998. The Bills cut Flutie and the Chargers brought him in as the clear starter because of what he had done with the Bills, establishing he was a solid NFL vet. Also, the Chargers went 1-15 the year before Flutie and Brees got there. And Flutie started out that season 5-2, and while in typical Flutie fashion, he wasn't lighting the world on fire (49.2% Completion %, 1,563 yards passing, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 1 rushing TD) in his 1st 7 games, he was winning. There was no reason to really consider putting Brees on the field while he was winning. Then there was a 9 game slide, and it's not exactly the unreasonable or odd approach for the coach to stick with the guy who got the team to a good record to start the season to let him get the team out of the tailspin. Bledsoe was the starter in New England. Brady was a 6th round draft pick. It's questionable, maybe even doubtful that Brady would have had a HOF career if Drew Bledsoe weren't knocked out of the game, forcing Brady into the game. Bledsoe hadn't been great for a while at that point, but it's not like Brady was the heir apparent. Again, you're entire thought process centers on the idea (not the fact, but the idea) that time on the bench is a more valuable learning tool than time on the field. Even though Flutie, Bledsoe and Favre may not have had fantastic seasons or won Super Bowls while the young guy was on the bench, you seem to believe that the Head Coaches had the long game in their heads--that it wasn't about winning games so much as developing the QBs. Whether they end up being right or wrong, a Head Coach is almost certainly going to start the guy who gives the team the best chance to win NOW, because he doesn't know if he'll have the job in 2, 3 or 4 years when the young guy has finally developed into what all your good planning promised he'd be. Maybe it's best to sit Allen for the year. Maybe it's not. I'm sure if Allen seems like he needs to sit, McDermott will sit him, but it'll be because McCarron is the better QB at that time, not because Allen still has some stuff he needs to learn, despite being the better QB than McCarron or Peterman. That's fine if you believe it'd be best for Allen to ride the bench. No problem. It might be. It might not be. But based on history of high 1st round draft picks coming to a team with no clearly, or even semi-clearly established vet QB, the 1st round draft pick starts multiple games in his 1st year, if not all of them. Right now Vegas has Allen's over/under odds of games started this year at 10.5 games--more than any of the other 4 drafted 1st round QBs. I think that's about right... and right now, I'd go over.