transplantbillsfan

Again... it's a risk if you are making the argument from the perspective of analytics. From the perspective of analytics, Allen was a terrible pick, no matter how you slice it. Analytics absolutely loves Baker Mayfield, which is part of why he went #1. And I 100% wanted to draft Mayfield over any other QB. But with Allen you have to dive deep into personal background, film study, whiteboard breakdowns, one-on-one's and so on. Scouting is harder, more time consuming and very subjective. So, yeah, this is boom or bust. But I think if Beane is a very smart, observant, intuitive scout (GM), then the boom will be more like BOOM!!!! As for the 2nd round picks... who cares??? Honestly, Allen is literally the only player who makes this draft a success or a bust. If he turns into a Franchise QB, those two 2nd rounders will be quickly forgotten.

I think Allen is going to (hopefully) be an interesting case study as far as the NFL draft goes. In the "scouting vs analytics" discussion, Allen becoming a Franchise QB would be the ultimate argument for scouting. It's really that simple.

What if Allen wins the QB competition? Beane already said Allen is coming in as the #3. McDermott always says every position is an open competition. I've really been coming around more and more to thinking that Allen should just start right away, as long as he feels ready. But what's great about Allen is he actually said, amazingly, that he's ready to do whatever the coaches want him to do, even if it means being the backup for a couple of years. I don't remember where that interview was, but he didn't say that as a coward. He said it as a team player because you could tell he really wanted to start, but unlike Rosen, Allen won't pitch a hissyfit if coaches want him to sit and learn. I think Allen might actually be ahead of the game of all the rookies in terms of knowledge of an NFL offense, already. Watching all the videos I could of his throws over the last couple years at Wyoming, I'm thinking some of the accuracy concerns are a bit overblown. Allen isn't like Manuel was in 2013: a complete teardown in terms of mechanics. EJ never really got that opportunity. I don't know that Allen needs it. He has things to fix, but I don't think he's nearly as raw as advertised... and I'm certainly guilty of thinking he was too raw for us to draft in the first place. But while I think there's a decent chance McCarron is our starter this year, I'm also starting to think Allen might be close to the favorite to win the week 1 gig, and I don't think anymore that would be the worst thing, either.

If you listen, Palmer sounds like he's almost holding back on his excitement of Allen in relation to Darnold.

I don't think that's his point. Our 2 biggest needs we're Franchise QB and MLB. We got the #1 or #2 MLB prospect and, depending on who you ask, a #1, #2, #3 or #4 QB prospect in an extremely top-heavy QB class that saw 5 QBs drafted in the 1st round, most of who were drafted about where they were projected and weren't massively overdrafted like we did with Manuel back in 2013. It's perspective... it means stop whining because we got 2 players by the 16th pick who were being mostly projected higher.

I think this video is worth a watch. It's an interview from before last season: Some interesting notes, particularly about why he may be so raw and playing at Wyoming: - 3 sport athlete in HS - Could throw a 92 mph fastball in baseball as a Senior. -was just 5'10" and 150 lbs as a sophomore -was 6'0" and 180 lbs as a junior -was 6'2" and 185 lbs as a senior Plenty of other interesting nuggets in here, though.

I said as soon as it happened I hope I didn't jinx us I think I railed against him enough in the pre draft process to build up enough cache so he'll still be good moving forward even if I start liking him

So HappyDays posted this thread with a 30+ minute Matt Waldman film room breakdown: Lots of exceptional breakdowns in here and Allen demonstrates he has the ability to be very well rounded. But there are 2 quotes that stand out to me as "highlights" or "scouting notes" inserted: "Emotional IQ/Strategic Wisdom is what separates top franchise QBs--and it's the most difficult thing to teach in any industry!" "Allen's on-field emotional IQ based on football behaviors has a lot of opportunity for growth and he'll be entering a league that is really hit or miss with training and development." To me, the 2nd quote says Allen has some work to do with on-field wisdom and Emotional IQ. He points to a couple examples, particularly a play where he sees no coverage to one side of the field and instead of rifling it to his WR with his howitzer for a potential TD before any defender could reach him, Allen floats it in. Still a positive play. Still a 1st down. Could have been more. But the thing is, based on the kid in terms of personal background, he seems to have the Emotional IQ and enough smarts to develop that strategic wisdom already. In the end, that aspect of what Waldman talks about is the reason I have a decent amount of confidence Allen can succeed.

Okay... this thread needs legs, but I understand why it doesn't have them simply because Waldman's video is just over 30 minutes. Lots of exceptional breakdowns in here and Allen demonstrates he has the ability to be very well rounded. But there are 2 quotes that stand out to me as "highlights" or "scouting notes" inserted: "Emotional IQ/Strategic Wisdom is what separates top franchise QBs--and it's the most difficult thing to teach in any industry!" "Allen's on-field emotional IQ based on football behaviors has a lot of opportunity for growth and he'll be entering a league that is really hit or miss with training and development." To me, the 2nd quote says Allen has some work to do with on-field wisdom and Emotional IQ. He points to a couple examples, particularly a play where he sees no coverage to one side of the field and instead of rifling it to his WR with his howitzer for a potential TD before any defender could reach him, Allen floats it in. Still a positive play. Still a 1st down. Could have been more. But the thing is, based on the kid in terms of personal background, he seems to have the Emotional IQ and enough smarts to develop that strategic wisdom already. In the end, that aspect of what Waldman talks about is the reason I have a decent amount of confidence Allen can succeed.

Really awesomely well said. I feel about the exact same way. Analytics hate him and say he's destined to be a bust. There's really no denying that. Gotta go back almost 4 decades to find a successful case study with the broad similarities to Allen. All I've been doing since seeing we drafted him was looking at whatever I could find on YouTube. The kid himself is driven and is going to have a chip on his shoulder for the rest of his life, most likely. Talk about a late bloomer... guess the main reasons he wasn't recruited was that he played somewhere no one from college really recruited and he was considered "small" (6'0 and 180 lbs by one account) up at least til his Junior year in HS. So he's been working his @$$ off ever since. Apparently his recall is fantastic,too, and he was excellent at the whiteboard with NFL teams So my other worry of him being in an NFL offense like Wentz was but not really understanding it goes a little out the window. Right there with you

You forgot smarts. Football smarts, in particular. Until this process played out, I didn't know how smart he was. From what I had heard and read and seen from the little I watched in games, it looked a whole lot like he would too often go places he shouldn't go with the football or would only get to his 1st or 2nd read before all hell breaking loose. Having looked into things a bit more, I understand there's probably a lot more to that story. That was maybe one of my biggest issues about the player himself. But reports are he was fantastic at the whiteboard with NFL teams. And we all know about his 37 on the wonderlic, which measures smarts in general, and aren't really football related. But I think all that will really help him absorb the NFL game and get up to speed to the point where I'm starting to think he's already the favorite to start right away and may play pretty decently in his rookie year. Here's hopin!!!

You don't have to convince me of anything. I'm good. And you're welcome. Changed the title just for those of you who haven't caught up to the fact that I no longer need convincing anymore. Thanks, though

Exactly!!! I'll gladly take it for the team if it means Allen turns into a Franchise QB

No one's ever been drafted only because of physical traits. You're vastly oversimplifying just because you apparently want to argue.

Hey bro... try calming down a bit. I'll say this again... you're in luck... I despised the Allen pick when it happened... that's going to bode well for Allen's success. Seriously, we've all established I have terrible taste in QBs, right? I liked Edwards and thought he could have been a legit Franchise QB for waaaaaayyyyy too long... I liked Fitz and thought he could have been our long term answer at QB for waaaaaayyyy too long... I liked Manuel and thought he had a chance to be a legit Franchise QB for waaaaaayyyyy too long... I liked Taylor and thought he could have been a legit Franchise QB for waaaaaayyyyy too long... Well, I seriously loathed this pick the moment Goodell said "Allen" rather than "Rosen." I threw my phone... seriously. Luckily, I have a flip phone and those things are TANKS!!! His tweets that surfaced the night before made me dislike him even more. I saw the Buffalo trade up to #7 and soooOOOOOooooo expected it to be Rosen. It wasn't. I was massively wrong. And here was my reaction the moment it happened I'm using a meme... and I hate memes... that's how much I hated the pick when it happened.(and when I saw the Browns draft Mayfield at #1, I really kinda thought Darnold would fall to #4, so when the Jets drafted him...) Anyway, I have a history of being massively wrong about my overall like of QBs in a Buffalo Bills uniform. I'm already growing to really like Allen because I'm a Bills fan and am purely a fan of my team, secondarily the players on my team, but stuff like this: and this: And the explanation for his tweets. And the Waldman film breakdown HappyDays posted as a thread. And some of the Jordan Palmer and Trent Dilfer discussions about him on the Rich Eisen show Have all been making me feel better about him. I still have my doubts and think he's far from a sure thing. But I believe he stands a much better chance of turning into a Franchise QB than I did Thursday afternoon. But that's also a bit of the homer in me, right? So, take solace. I was super sick about us drafting Allen initially... he's going to be AWESOME for us!!! Let's just all hope I haven't jinxed him See above post

Kinda have to come around... I'm a Bills fan. He's my QB now. I like the kid. He's humble, yet confident and has a chip on his shoulder that he wears positively, unlike Rosen. He's a physical monster in terms of stature and skill set. What has me coming around on him the most is his football acumen. For all these reasons, I'm hoping he will and thinking he can break a trend that's been real for the last 39 years. That trend is the primary reason I didn't want to draft him. That trend exists, and it's not something I was grossly uninformed about. But looking into the kid, I think he can break it.

I've stated my piece. Allen's college production historically wouldn't warrant top 10 consideration. Those like him who have been drafted in the top half of the 1st round have failed consistently. You need to go back 39 years to Phil Simms to find a guy in this project QB underwhelming college production mold who went on to be a Franchise QB. I'm over that argument. I think Allen very well could be a very unique case. And I'm certainly hoping he is

Thanks Hap... I thought about bumping this thread because I feel pretty much the way you do exactly. I just figured it'll be merged with the Josh Allen draft thread like my other more light hearted one was. I'll admit my adamant feelings against Allen were primarily because these raw project QBs become Franchise QBs almost never. But I spent the last couple days and most of draft night imbibing as much as I could on the kid. And honestly I think he stands a decent chance to be a Franchise QB because of how late a bloomer physically and, therefore, at the position he was along with the attitude he has, which is a healthy chip on his shoulder (unlike Rosen imo) along with the fact that he's actually maybe the smartest QB in this class. Props to a couple posters in this message board who have been really pumping him up if he works out. Fingers crossed.

I'm pretty sure this won't be Dabol looking at him play and devaluing him based on what he did last year at Alabama. Pretty sure it'll be what happens this summer that matters.

Wow... I think Allen might actually be the favorite to win the starting job week 1. Dude's got the football acumen... it all seems to be a question of how much he's cleaned up his mechanics. Evidently, reports are he's already massively cleaned all that up. I am just highly highly highly skeptical something like accuracy could be fixed as quickly as he and Palmer are claiming, but we'll see. They say it was a small fix in the lower half of the body that made a huge difference in terms of consistency with accuracy. Man, if Allen plays right away and plays well, Jordan Palmer is going to have a busy and lucrative career working as a guru for a position he could never play himself. Impressive.

The fact that he worked in Dabol's offense will really help him.

Wow... is Allen the favorite to win the starting job week 1? Dude's got the football acumen... it all seems to be a question of how much he's cleaned up his mechanics. Man, if Allen plays right away and plays well, Jordan Palmer is going to have a busy and lucrative career working as a guru for a position he could never play himself. Impressive.

How I feel, too. I still would have preferred Mayfield or Darnold because I think they're, more sure things, but I'm no longer upset we didn't pick the outspoken spoiled brat, even though I was initially. Rosen really turned me off in his interviews after being drafted. Allen's story looks special and looks like a truly unique case. There hasn't been a Project QB like him drafted in the 1st or 2nd round who's gone onto be a true Franchise QB since Favre. But it really looks like the kid was just a late bloomer and his story tells me he's got the natural chip on his shoulder.

This is awesome! Thanks for posting!!! There was a moment in there you could see Cousins was a bit surprised at Allen's football acumen. My main hope is that the kid can clean up his mechanics and footwork so he can be consistently accurate. That's obviously the biggest worry.

Weird... don't know why the hell someone merged another thread with this one, left my post as the 1st post, gave me moderation privileges but changed the thread title to the one that merged into it.