transplantbillsfan

After we drafted him, I was appalled we picked him. Then I dug into his history. The fact that he was a very late bloomer whose parents would not allow him to specialize the way most NFL QBs do in their youth is what really started the process of my "all-in" attitude on Allen. Yes!!! Ironically, the very reason I think we should anticipate another good sized step forward in year 3 for Allen is the fact that unlike all his peers he DIDN'T attend all those QB and 7-on-7 camps when he was young. He's still teachable and he's going to have the same teachers for the 3rd consecutive year.

Considering he jumped from a QB Rating of 67.9 in his rookie year to 85.3 in his 2nd year, wouldn't anything less than a QB Rating of a 90 be a pretty massive disappointment? I know it would be for me. And even though Passer rating isn't one of those "advanced stats," it's really worth noting that in the last 20 years there were only 4 other QBs with a significant (15+ points) bump from their first year starting to their 2nd year: Matthew Stafford Derek Carr Blake Bortles Carson Palmer Now add Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson into that mix. That type of improvement just doesn't happen very often, though. Is Allen more like Bortles or the other 3 guys? Well, keeping the same offense and OC really helps, I think. Bortles really suffered, in part, from constant change.

No. You can predict a boy or a girl for a number of different reasons that aren't just plain blind hope. Go ask the women in your life if you're unawares.

There's a Kubiak article actually discussing this very topic in the Buffalo News... anyone with a subscription like @Hapless Bills Fan who might be willing to post some highlights for those of us without???

Yeah I agree with this... and I think it's largely the right call because DE/Edge Rusher is probably a more pressing need right now anyway.

Who's the guy you prefer at 22 then? I don't watch any college ball, but Shenault is the most appealing guy to me right now... and I think Daboll would salivate over a swiss army knife like Viska, don't you?

Your wife is pregnant and you predict it's a boy. Should she buy blue paint for the nursery and should everyone coming to the baby shower shop for a baby boy because you told everyone you thought it would be a boy?

And it's also something that continues if you're only at the beginning or in the middle of it. There's never any way to know anything, but if you understand Allen's history and the truly raw prospect he was--lacking in specialization and the constant QB camp reps at places like the Manning academy while staying at a small HS to keep workingon the Family Farm and everything that followed-- then your hope would be actual optimism combined with hope rather than the typical cynical connotations you combine with that word every time you dish it out. I can say it. Just because I made a prediction doesn't mean I thought it should be the expectation. C'mon man. You're intelligent enough to understand nuance. Right? There are folks here who seem genuinely upset he's not an All-Pro already. That's very different from my stance... both pre and post season. I have genuine hope and optimism about Allen going into next season... the arrow is pointing up. Hope you can shed some of the cynicism for actual optimism... but that might just be hoping too much on my part...

How far he's come and the fact that he's relatively young to the game in terms of expert reps and practice as compared to most 1st round prospects and his significant improvement from year 1 to year 2 is, first of all, an indication that he hasn't peaked. Clearly that's at the very least a sign of optimism for everyone. If people expected him to go from what he was his rookie year to Drew Brees in his 2nd, that'd be a ridiculously unrealistic expectation and that's on them.

Wow... good job distorting what I said

Are you having an argument with the voices in your head?

I don't think it's just Mahomes. Watching Lamar Jackson when he passes he seems to really drop back a lot. I don't know if this is for the sake of helping with field vision or what, but Allen certainly has the arm strength where dropping back farther wouldn't really hinder him.

We don't need a Lee Evans type of WR. We need an Eric Moulds type of WR.

Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!" That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks. I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic. The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse? Answer is pretty obvious. Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School.

There's plenty in this article, but it's got a paywall so I'm trying to just get some of the highlights... https://theathletic.com/1582804/2020/02/04/what-the-advanced-stats-tell-us-about-josh-allens-growth-in-2019-and-beyond/ At one point, ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. stated, “Stats are for losers,” when defending his stance on Allen. ... With Allen’s second season in the rearview, we dove deep into the advanced stats to find where Allen made the most progress, where he still needs to improve and what the Bills can do to help him along this offseason. All stats are courtesy of SportRadar unless otherwise noted. ... Situational football Young quarterbacks often face a learning curve when it comes to performing in the red zone. The field shrinks and passing windows get tighter. But Allen excelled in this area. He completed only 48 percent of his passes, below the league average, but connected on 12 touchdowns and did not throw an interception. ... Allen also fared better on third down in 2019. After completing 46 percent of his third down attempts as a rookie for one touchdown and four interceptions, Allen improved to a 56-percent completion rate on third down with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He was 22nd in the league with 47 passing first downs, but his 17 rushing first downs on third down trailed only Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks. ... He was eighth in the league in passer rating on third-and-7 or more with five touchdowns and one interception. ... Accuracy You can attribute that to Allen’s development and the improved talent around him, as John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox all lifted the offense. The improvement could have been even more obvious if not for drops. Bills receivers dropped 6.7 percent of Allen’s passes, the highest drop rate in the NFL this season. Despite the Bills’ additions at wide receiver, Allen still dealt with 31 drops. ... A year ago, Allen posted a completion percentage 6.8 percent below expectation, third worst in football. He improved that number to 3.7 percent, which was fifth worst among qualifying quarterbacks. ... Allen’s intended air yards per pass dropped from 11 to 9.4, still fifth highest in football. ... Even a small boost to his deep passing numbers would do wonders to open up the offense. As Brent Vigen, his college offensive coordinator put it in a conversation earlier this year, “I know having had to defend his completion percentage here, we had that conversation a lot, and I’m certain it’s not going to be some barrier to lead his team to winning seasons and have a great extended career. “I do think the nature of his game, it’s challenging to be in the elite maybe in completion percentage, but you balance that with playmaking, there’s a line there somewhere. I know that’s probably going to be where his game tilts to the playmaking. As long as you go through the course of a game and that volume of throws that you should never miss doesn’t pile up, I think that’s the biggest thing.” ... He was more aggressive in 2019, throwing into a tight window (one yard or less of separation) 15 percent of the time, up from 13 percent a year ago. He’s not shying away from these tougher throws. Top competition Going into 2020, how Allen fares against top competition will be a key aspect of measuring his development. The Bills played five games against teams that qualified for the postseason in 2019. The Bills were 1-4 in those games, with the lone win coming against the Titans prior to their quarterback change. In those five games, Allen completed 51 percent of his passes for 5.6 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. ... If the Bills are going to take the next step in 2020, Allen will need to play better against top competition. Like everything with Allen, it comes down to consistency. Moving forward The Bills have nearly $90 million in salary cap space and nine picks in the upcoming draft, so what can they do to help Allen in 2020? ... If the passing offense and the team are going to take the next step, the Bills will need to continue to improve the pass protection and find a receiver capable of winning in contested situations. ... Just as important is Allen’s individual improvement and how the coaches game plan according to it. Allen had the eighth-highest time to throw this season at an average of 2.86 seconds from snap to throw. ... Allen was also much better when running play action, completing nearly two third of his passes with an 8:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He had a 124.1 passer rating when running play action from under center, completing 42-of-61 attempts for six touchdowns and one interception. Of those 61 attempts, 30 went for first downs. ... This team’s 2020 ceiling and floor are dependent on which direction Allen goes.

I get it. But it's Iowa. What is it... like 1% of the delegates they give out? I know your argument is that historically the Iowa caucuses are largely predictive , especially if combined with New Hampshire. But the race was never really starting for Biden until South Carolina. And while historical trends may lean one way, you've claimed multiple times 2016 flipped the world on its head, so saying that while throwing out historical trends is a convenient contradiction, no?

Not sure thing but that he's the most likely candidate. And my opinion on that hasn't changed.

It didn't evolve in the sense that you think it did. You just always seemed to misunderstand my thoughts about the candidates and it seems you still do a bit. From the beginning I said I wanted the field, not Biden.

Wait... Are you pretending it's Biden I'm backing??? Remind yourself of our bet please...

It wouldn't really be a bad thing to have Knox, Olsen AND Sweeney. As to your earlier statement, Knox could be the next great TE if he can consistently catch the football. But ya know what... let's try and see if an offseason helps him get more comfortable doing that. Dawson Knox only caught 39 passes in college. He was a raw physical specimen when we drafted him, much like our QB. I really can't wait to see the Josh to Knox connection develop next year.

Ford is the one I worry about the most. I honestly think Knox and Motor take big steps this offseason. Both came from relatively small college stages and Knox got very little in game practice catching the football.

Wasn't Biden always going to lose Iowa and New Hampshire? Try not to be such a victim of the moment. And I hope Pete becomes the nominee... he's been my favorite since nearly the beginning.

I think he's going to be a beast, honestly.

Yes, I very much did. And that handling of the end of the 1st half... oy vey!