transplantbillsfan
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Posts posted by transplantbillsfan
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@GunnerBill I agree with several of your takes in this thread, but not on Von.
He had an ACL tear and finally started showing something in the last couple games of the season. Outside of Groot, Von may have been the best DL against KC.
The financials to cut him just don't make sense knowing that he was exactly what we signed him for before his injury in 2022 and that he was less than a year and 2 months out of his injury in the KC game.
He's a 1st ballot HOFer who was still playing like one at age 33 until he got injured.
If he's 75-80% of Von Miller, he's worth it to keep under that CAP hit. Floyd was a lottery ticket this year we hit on. A lot of those same vet Edge Rushers that signed in that late wave were total busts.
Bird in the hand...
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7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:
I love the enthusiasm!
But I'm not convinced the youth of our OC/DC duo gives us a competitive advantage.
If I was a soldier going to war, I'd be worried about being led by some kid fresh from the academy who's never been under fire before. I'd rather go to war with the grizzled old vet with a reputation as a tactical genius who's already fought and won many battles.
But who knows? Maybe both Brady and Babich turn out to be tactical geniuses. I can only hope.
McDermott is the General leading them. The Coordinators are the Captains.
How did it work with a geriatric DC in Frazier?
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11 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:
Are you willing to move on from some or all of
white
poyer
morse
knox?
if they did it would help the cap now and in the future.
Moving on from Knox this year doesn't financially make sense. Ask the CAP experts. Also, Knox is actually a huge asset for this team in 12 Personnel, which we're likely to use a lot of.
I could see us moving on from Poyer, but probably not because I think McDermott will want him in there as a veteran presence to teach everyone else.
See my other comments about White. I doubt we move him, but we'll restructure his contract.
No, I think Morse stays for similar reasons as Poyer. He's also still playing at a pretty high level.
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13 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:
Hyde & Tre are likely gone this spring. Von, Diggs, Knox and Poyer will probably only be around one more year then we wave goodbye. We absolutely must emphasize offense (wrs) this April. We've neglected Josh long enough. The core is solid with Josh, Cook and Kincaid/Shakir. But reliable supplemental wrs better than Gabe and an aging Diggs are necessary. The youth movement will start this year. As will Josh's 2nd window.
Hyde is gone. I think people need to come to grips with the fact that it's way more likely that Tre is still on the roster next season, just under a reworked deal.
If you listen to any of the experts on the CAP stuff like Mike Giniti from Spotrac or Greg Thompsett from Cover_1, they say what will almost certainly happen with Tre is a reworked deal
11 hours ago, JerseyBills said:ya the OL especially was a massive concern that changed immediately into a strength after 1 off season..
Also hopeful for guys like Shorter and Darien in 43 situations can be more added youth. I'm very optimistic for the future
I think Dorian Williams is going to be an important X-factor moving forward. So many NFL offenses shifting to 21 and 12 personnel and so many NFL defenses are going back to using 3 and even 4 LBs pretty frequently. The Chiefs and Lions are 2 great examples of that.
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11 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:
I thought you wanted to trade away our draft picks though to move up in the first and take a WR?We have 10 draft picks.
If you think Beane drafts 10 players and doesn't use any of those assets to trade up throughout the draft, you're nuts.
If we were to trade our 1st & 4th again to move up a couple spots or even our 1st, 3rd, & 4th to move up 6 or 7 spots to get OUR guy, the Bills would still have 8 or 9 total draft picks. At that point you rely on your scouting team.
And here's the thing... Beane has been drafting guys in the later rounds who still end up playing on active rosters in the NFL. The problem has been that the Bills have been such a veteran team that those players can't displace the older Bills players.
I could see the Bills getting serious contributors at RB, WR and DT in the mid to late rounds. Maybe the Safety of our future.
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I'm gonna be honest... it took me some time to get over our season.
I'm good now.
Now I'm excited not just for next season, but our future.
First of all, Buffalo has the 2nd youngest OC/DC combo in the NFL. Players advocate for these guys who have plenty of juice, so let em shake us all season long!
Second, and most important, a lot of people are worried about our CAP while ignoring the 10 draft picks plus 9 future reserves we have in the waiting. Combine those with young stars already on the team like Bernard, Kincaid, Shakir, Brown, Benford & Rousseau and this team is about to get a lot younger as guys like Hyde, Poyer, Miller and Diggs exit in the next 2 or 3 years.
To me, the future looks bright. Our most important player is about to become the veteran presence as everyone else around him gets younger. And it's by necessity because of our CAP situation.
But don't be afraid of that... the Bills since McBeane have been in place have maintained one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. Always low to mid 20s, as far as ranking in the NFL... not as far as age. That means we've always been one of the 10 oldest teams in the NFL.
Now we inject youth. This offseason it's inevitably going to come in the WR corps & DL especially, but it'll shift across positions moving forward.
And we'll have a young OC & DC with a lot of juice to connect with them and a hypercompetitive QB with a handshake for everyone and Richard jokes to get them playing for him
This team is actually going through some drastic changes this offseason... it has me excited!!!
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1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:
Huh? Maybe read my comment again… Im saying the third round pick is in play..but it won’t be enough to move up into the mid late teens ….I'm saying Beane has 8 other picks to play with along with that 1st and 3rd round pick.
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Just now, John from Riverside said:
Right now it’s before we pick
How much before?
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I watched the First Draft video and came away thinking Brian Thomas would be a perfect fit in this offense and is the realistic guy we should target.
I read through the page 1 comments and everyone's talking about other WRs, but I want to know where Thomas projects in round 1.
On 2/2/2024 at 11:44 AM, Aussie Joe said:
I’ll believe Beane giving up the draft assets to do this when I see it … I think the most he will give up is the third rounder which will get them up to 23-24Beane gives up draft assets every single year and with 10 draft picks he's going to have more assets to play with than ever.
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Here's what I learned from this thread title:
I need glasses.
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No. Way too expensive in a deep WR class.
I do think Beane trades up, but not into the top 10.
Super early in the process, but I think if a guy like Brian Thomas falls to the late teens, Beane starts making phone calls.
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3 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
i wonder if this could mean, in part, that Josh was less accurate and/or the receivers’ routes weren’t as accurate— which could be a reflection of running new stuff?I think it's that Brady implemented more down the field passes, which are harder to catch--and priority #1 in the draft is a field stretching WR who can track the ball and actually catch it--along with a complete shift in philosophy getting Diggs the ball behind the LOS on those bubble screens, which seemed kinda foreign to him and was where some of his drops were.
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On 1/21/2024 at 6:02 AM, Thurman#1 said:
Nonsense.
Allen's turnovers did a hell of a lot more to lose the Broncos game than the (admittedly stupid and unbelievably frustrating) 12 men on the field penalty. They lost six points directly from the two INTs.
And that's ignoring the rest of his not very good game.
The first INT, they were on the Broncos 28. That's 3 lost points, minimum.
The second INT, the Broncos got the ball on the Bills 31 and hit a field goal.
That's a six point turnaround minimum, and the Bills lost by two. The stupid 12 men penalty would never have happened, as the Broncos would have needed eight points to tie and would have been forced to go for a TD.
Allen was a major factor.
Even larger in the Jets game, yes. But really big in both.
Allen was just incredibly unlucky as far as turnovers go this season, particularly the first half of the season.
Since you're talking about Allen in the Broncos game, this tweet seems relevant:
Allen had the 2nd lowest turnover worthy play % up through that Denver Bronco game. And that Bronco game gives a great example of how unlucky Allen was this year in terms of his turnovers... Interceptions in particular.
That first interception was the result of a perfectly thrown pass to a wide open Gabe Davis, but stone-hands-Gabe not only dropped it, but tipped it perfectly so the defender behind him could catch it.
That's Josh Allen's season. He actually had his best year in the NFL in terms of decision making, but his worst year in terms of luck.
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11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
So, where are you getting those stats? I'd love to see week by week data.
In any case, there are many causes. It's not one thing, it's many working together.
But a lot of it is that Josh has a bit harder time with short throws than with longer ones, and that he sometimes puts mustard on balls that are short, making it really hard to handle. And mustard from Josh is hotter than just about any other in the league. More short throws under Brady than under Dorsey.
That's not all, though. Receivers certainly have a part in it.
Oh, and take a look at your math. It's a small difference, but 21 drops in 229 passes is 9.17%. I assume you meant in-season drops, right? That's 229 attempts. If you were including the playoffs, it would be 69 more throws.
So, not 10.1%. Instead 9.17%. Not that that's a great figure either, but correct figures are more useful in understanding the world.
I got them from Joe Marino in this podcast:
I don't know where exactly Joe got the numbers, but Joe has plenty of credibility to trust those numbers are accurate.
I just thought it was super interesting because I think Brady did a great job, but we had a lot more drops. I think on NFL Live Dan Orlovsky was doing a bit showing how the switch from Dorsey to Brady shifted a lot more of our passing focus to passes behind the LOS with screens and balls down the field. And as we saw in the KC game, it's a lot of those down the field passes that wind up being drops. James Cook dropped multiple TDs that would also be considered those "down the field" passes.
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It's hard to determine why this happened, but once Brady took over, Buffalo had:
21 drops
10.1% drop rate
Both worst in the NFL over that span
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On 7/26/2023 at 11:34 AM, The Frankish Reich said:
So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?
The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active.
But it's not promising.
Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s.
These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season)
1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history.
2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell.
3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension)
4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell.
5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell.
6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell
7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season.
8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk]
9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury.
10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell.
11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk]
12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36.
13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?)
14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30.
15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since. Done as a starter by Age 28.
13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.
14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.
15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28.
16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why]
THE GREAT EXCEPTION
17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.
You need to compare Allen to similar body types. Basically compare him with Cam Newton, Steve McNair, Colin Kaepernick and John Elway. I think those are the only real "running" QBs Allen aligns with. I think McNair and Kaep just weren't all that great, anyway. And Newton was undone by shoulder surgeries and a dead arm.
Elway should really be your great exception. Unlike Steve Young, Elway played every single year of his long career and was the Super Bowl MVP in the last game of his career.
I think Allen aligns with Elway the most in terms of just about everything.
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5 minutes ago, Bill Grundy said:
John Elway's career is the one I look to when I see Josh
Yep... let's just hope we don't have to wait as long for a Super Bowl
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22 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
Folks keep talking about Josh running out of time to win a championship. Here’s a link to ages of all SB winning QBs:
Lots of older guys, some younger guys. I think the average age is around 31.
So he’s got plenty of time. He will likely not be as much the runner, but that’s OK.
Josh is just now entering the prime years as an NFL QB, which are typically between 27-32. I disagree even with the notion of Josh not being a runner anymore. He may not run as much and may slow down a little, but I'm thinking and hoping it's more because of his improvement at pre and post snap reads to throw the ball. Big Ben may have slowed down late in his career, but even at the end of his career he was still super difficult to bring down.
I've said it time and time again that I think QBs get hurt more in the pocket. Josh's 2 elbow injuries (the rookie year one, which was the only one to keep him out of games in his career, and last year) and his shoulder injury from this season were all from inside the pocket, not running.
Russel Wilson just rushed for 341 yards and 3 TDs in his age 35 season
Aaron Rodgers rushed for 269 yards and 2 TDs in his age 35 season.
Josh is going to be in his prime for at least the next half decade... he just needs to continue to grow in terms of knowing when to slide/go out of bounds and when to lower his shoulder.
Super Bowl next year!!!!!!
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I'm so sorry @whorlnut. No words can make things better, but you're in the thoughts and prayers of this community, for sure.
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2 hours ago, Dubie54 said:
What a difference maker this draft class was for the Lions:
Round 1, Pick 12 — RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Round 1, Pick 18 — LB Jack Campbell
Round 2, Pick 34 overall — TE Sam LaPorta
Round 2, Pick 45 overall — DB Brian Branch
The rest of their draft was not much but these 4 guys were amazing, particularly Gibbs and LaPorta. I think LaPorta could become another Kelce type dominant TE for years.
It sure would be amazing if we could find 4 guys who could step right in at Saftey, WR, LB and DT draft this year.
Ummm... yeah... all 1st and 2nd round picks.
Beane nailed our 1st and 2nd round picks this year, too.
Plus, I think Dorian Williams is going to play a huge role moving forward. More and more teams using a 3rd LB as more and more teams in the NFL are shifting to 12 and 21 personnel on offense. The Chiefs and Lions, for example, used a LOT of 3 LB sets this season. watch that happen with us starting next year, especially considering our new DC was just the LB coach who worked closely with Williams.
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1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said:
Allen has way too many INTs to be in the conversation. While Dak had good games, he still struggled against winning teams.
The reasons I pick Stroud he carried a team to a division win that many thought would be a bottom 5 team. Add in him leading in TD to INT ratio, only throwing an INT on 1% of his passes.
Oh for crying out loud.
#1: The guy who's about to win MVP has 13 turnovers to 28 interceptions while Allen has 22 turnovers to 44 TDs... he leads the NFL in TDs, BTW. Plus, Allen leads the NFL in total yards.
Statistically Allen and Lamar have the same production except Allen has moooorrree.
Stroud wouldn't make sense.
McCaffery would but he won't win.
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1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said:
I never said he should win. My point was a playoff game has no bearing on the MVP vote.
IMO the only 2 that should be up for it are McCaffrey and Stroud.
Wait... CJ Stroud????
No. Stop being a prisoner of the moment. He's absolutely ROY. Absolutely not MVP
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People are actually upset about this????
Get this offense some guys who can actually catch and a Thunder to Cook's Lightning and we're a top 3 offense
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11 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:
Playoffs don't matter when it comes to MVP voting. It's for the regular season.
Even so... Lamar shouldn't win.
I would love a reasonable argument about why Lamar Jackson should win team MVP outside of "best record in the NFL."
Get excited... change is NOW with a youth wave!!!
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Miller looked pretty good against KC and finally had a couple game impacting reps against Pittsburgh.
Yes, he will be 35. Bruce Smith had 10 sacks in his age 37 season and 9 sacks in his age 39 season.
I will go on record that Von rebounds in 2024.