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transplantbillsfan

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Posts posted by transplantbillsfan

  1. On 7/26/2023 at 11:34 AM, The Frankish Reich said:

    So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?

    The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active.

     

    But it's not promising.

     

    Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s. 

     

    These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season)

     

    1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history.

    2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell.

    3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension)

    4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell.

    5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell.

    6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell

    7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season.

    8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk]

    9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury.

    10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell.

    11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk]

    12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36.

    13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but  four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?)

    14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30.

    15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since.  Done as a starter by Age 28.

    13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

    14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

    15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28.

    16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why]

     

    THE GREAT EXCEPTION

    17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.

     

    You need to compare Allen to similar body types.  Basically compare him with Cam Newton, Steve McNair, Colin Kaepernick and John Elway.  I think those are the only real "running" QBs Allen aligns with.  I think McNair and Kaep just weren't all that great, anyway.  And Newton was undone by shoulder surgeries and a dead arm.  

     

    Elway should really be your great exception.  Unlike Steve Young, Elway played every single year of his long career and was the Super Bowl MVP in the last game of his career.

     

    I think Allen aligns with Elway the most in terms of just about everything.

  2. 22 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

    Folks keep talking about Josh running out of time to win a championship.  Here’s a link to ages of all SB winning QBs:

     

     

     

    Lots of older guys, some younger guys.  I think the average age is around 31.  
     

    So he’s got plenty of time.  He will likely not be as much the runner, but that’s OK.

     

    Josh is just now entering the prime years as an NFL QB, which are typically between 27-32.  I disagree even with the notion of Josh not being a runner anymore.  He may not run as much and may slow down a little, but I'm thinking and hoping it's more because of his improvement at pre and post snap reads to throw the ball.  Big Ben may have slowed down late in his career, but even at the end of his career he was still super difficult to bring down.

     

    I've said it time and time again that I think QBs get hurt more in the pocket.  Josh's 2 elbow injuries (the rookie year one, which was the only one to keep him out of games in his career, and last year) and his shoulder injury from this season were all from inside the pocket, not running.

     

    Russel Wilson just rushed for 341 yards and 3 TDs in his age 35 season

     

    Aaron Rodgers rushed for 269 yards and 2 TDs in his age 35 season.

     

    Josh is going to be in his prime for at least the next half decade... he just needs to continue to grow in terms of knowing when to slide/go out of bounds and when to lower his shoulder.

     

    Super Bowl next year!!!!!!  :flirt:

  3. 2 hours ago, Dubie54 said:

    What a difference maker this draft class was for the Lions:

     

    Round 1, Pick 12 — RB Jahmyr Gibbs

    Round 1, Pick 18 — LB Jack Campbell

    Round 2, Pick 34 overall — TE Sam LaPorta

    Round 2, Pick 45 overall — DB Brian Branch

     

    The rest of their draft was not much but these 4 guys were amazing, particularly Gibbs and LaPorta. I think LaPorta could become another Kelce type dominant TE for years.

     

    It sure would be amazing if we could find 4 guys who could step right in at Saftey, WR, LB and DT draft this year. 

     

     

     

    Ummm... yeah... all 1st and 2nd round picks.

     

    Beane nailed our 1st and 2nd round picks this year, too.

     

    Plus, I think Dorian Williams is going to play a huge role moving forward.  More and more teams using a 3rd LB as more and more teams in the NFL are shifting to 12 and 21 personnel on offense.  The Chiefs and Lions, for example, used a LOT of 3 LB sets this season.  watch that happen with us starting next year, especially considering our new DC was just the LB coach who worked closely with Williams.

  4. 1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said:

    Allen has way too many INTs to be in the conversation.  While Dak had good games, he still struggled against winning teams. 

     

    The reasons I pick Stroud he carried a team to a division win that many thought would be a bottom 5 team. Add in him leading in TD to INT ratio, only throwing an INT on 1% of his passes. 

     

    Oh for crying out loud.

     

    #1: The guy who's about to win MVP has 13 turnovers to 28 interceptions while Allen has 22 turnovers to 44 TDs... he leads the NFL in TDs, BTW. Plus, Allen leads the NFL in total yards.

     

    Statistically Allen and Lamar have the same production except Allen has moooorrree.

     

    Stroud wouldn't make sense.

     

    McCaffery would but he won't win.

    • Like (+1) 1
  5. 1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said:

    I never said he should win. My point was a playoff game has no bearing on the MVP vote. 

     

    IMO the only 2 that should be up for it are McCaffrey and Stroud. 

     

    Wait... CJ Stroud????

     

    No. Stop being a prisoner of the moment. He's absolutely ROY. Absolutely not MVP

  6. 11 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

    Playoffs don't matter when it comes to MVP voting. It's for the regular season. 

     

    Even so... Lamar shouldn't win. 

     

    I would love a reasonable argument about why Lamar Jackson should win team MVP outside of "best record in the NFL." 

  7. 6 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

    Personally I think they should not restructure  Diggs but beane will want that 13M.  I have no issues moving from Tre and Poyer.   The team needs to get younger.   I would want to have a way out of Diggs contract after this year not saying you would for sure but having the option would be good.  

    Any chance someone would give up something small draft wise for Knox?   I just see him getting a reduced role and his contract is not great for a backup.  

     

    Did you listen to Tompsett's update?

     

    Fairly unlikely we release White.

  8. 7 hours ago, whorlnut said:

    My wife had a brain aneurysm last evening and was helicoptered to york hospital in Pennsylvania for surgery. She is fighting for her life. The only reason I’m writing this is to ask for prayers for someone you never met, but is an amazing and passionate bills fan, like myself. I’m out of options, folks. This truly does fall on faith and hope that she will be healed.

     

    Thank you so much for reading this and I know your prayers will be felt. The Mafia is a family. We might not agree on things all the time, but we all want the same thing. At the end of the day, it’s a sport, but this is real. Please pray for my wife, myself, and our two children. Thank you. 

     

    Absolutely in my prayers! So sorry to hear this.

  9. Okay... I think there are some posters saying we have to cut Tre White who need to listen to Greg Tompsett's update on the salary cap from 2 days ago.

     

    Boiling it down... we owe him $16m. Releasing him gives us only $6m in savings and a $10m dead cap hit.

     

    As Tompsett points out, it's unlikely we flat out release him. Much more likely to restructure his contract with some hard to reach incentives having to do probably with snap counts.

     

     

     

    Oh yeah, and another CB successfully converted to Safety...

     

    Micah Hyde

     

    And Hyde was still young in his career.

    • Disagree 1
  10. Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

     

    I don't gamble out of principle and having friends and family members who are/were addicts.

     

    But I'll publicly admit I was wrong and you were right if Tre isn't a cap casualty.

     

    Tre's just part of it though. We're 1000% not moving Douglas, Benford, Elam, or Jackson (especially since he's a FA) to replace Hyde.

     

    That's fine.

     

    Publicly admit you're wrong if any of these things happen. That's good enough 

  11. 3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

     

    We can get out from under Douglas without paying anything more. But he won't save us money this year and next year like Tre will. He's also not coming off an ACL Tear and an Achilles rupture. 

     

    We won't be keeping both. We're not going to take a young ascending CB like Benford and make him CB3, as well as push Elam back to CB4. Tre won't be ready to start the season and he can't be counted on as anything but a reserve with limited reps when he does. And his contract pays him like a Top CB in the league.

     

    As I've said and anyone who looks at our cap situation and the contracts we have said - it's a no brainer. Tre is gone.

     

    Even Beane when he was asked about Tre's future started with "that's a good question" and not an unequivocal "he'll be here". Which is about as damning as Beane gets.

     

    Okay... tell you what. Let's make a friendly wager.

     

    Unless Tre White retires (which is possible and the reason I included the clause) then he's part of the Buffalo Bills in 2024.

     

    Name your terms.

     

    Agreed?

    Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

     

    Take a look at the votes. Take a look at the replies. The opinions I'm in "disbelief" of aren't so much opinions, as things that just don't happen and make no sense.

     

    This is the equivalent of someone using YouTube comments as overall public sentiment. :doh:

  12. 8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

     

    Yeah, it really is. The amount of mental gymnastics you're doing when it's as simple as Drafting or signing a Safety is incredible. 

     

    You're right, we are stacked at CB. But we need a starting WR (plus at least 2 more for rotation and depth), a starting DE (plus 1-2 more for rotation), a starting DT (plus 2-3 more for rotation), and at least 1 starting Safety, possibly 2 (and another 1-2 for depth). All the while being ~44 million over the cap and one of our many CB's having an out in their contract to save a ton of money over the next two years.

     

    The answer isn't move a CB to Safety because you have warm fuzzies. One of those CB's has an out in their contract, put in for a reason - in the event we're in bad shape roster wise, cap wise, and in case of fall off and injury - of which all have occurred.

     

    The answer is simple. Move on from one CB and use that money this year and next year to address the multitude of positions where we're not only not stacked - we need starters. We can move on from one CB and still be in very good shape there.

     

    And moving CB's to Safety isn't something that happens all the time like you think. It only happens if a guy is a tweener with experience at both positions at the College and/or Pro level. Or they're elite aging CB's with the tools to transition like a Patrick Peterson or Troy Vincent. That's not the situation here.

     

    And even if it were as likely as you'd think it is that we'd just move a guy - it would be a project. You don't just move a CB to Safety, who's not played the position at the Pro Level, and say "okay, we're good there". It's a total projection. We'd still need to bring in a True Safety as insurance in the event that it wouldn't work. So knowing that we have to sign a guy anyways - this project would just cost us even more money by having to sign insurance and keeping on a CB that we could save money moving on from.

     

    I'm honestly shocked it's even as close as 65 against, 34 for on your poll. It just makes zero sense any way you slice it.

     

    Holy crap... so much of what you say you're in disbelief of here I can't believe you're in disbelief of.

     

    Clearly we'll just have to agree to disagree.

    • Haha (+1) 1
  13. 44 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

    Ya I guess if he was as good at S as CB and Elam was great at CB it wouldn't matter who was playing where

     

    Safety is a critically important void this team has to fill.  It's super important to McDermott's D.

     

    The team has a lot of difficult choices to make this offseason and will need to get creative in order to stay in place or keep moving forward.

     

    That's reality.

     

    CB is our most stacked position on paper under contract right now, other than OL.

     

    Converting a CB to Safety is not some outlandish suggestion.  It's been done successfully on many occasions in the NFL.  

     

    I'd also point out that Beane and McDermott haven't given up on Elam and both are on record over the years that it often takes draft picks until year 3 to figure things out.  They've said that 3rd year is kinda the make or break year for draft picks and that the first 2 years aren't fair to use as strict judgments on that player as a bust.

    • Disagree 1
  14. 26 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

     

    My God - this just gets more and more ridiculous.

     

    Douglas is our CB1. He was playing at a top PFF level amongst all CB's before his injury. 

     

    Not only are you suggesting moving our CB1 to Safety to start Kaiir Elam at CB instead - you're suggesting he would then choose to sign a contract for Safety money instead of CB money?

     

    Why would he do that? He and his agent would laugh in our faces, play out his year with us, and go somewhere else and cash in as one of the top CB's on the market next season.

     

    Wait a minute... it's ridiculous to suggest our 1st round draft pick at CB from 2 years ago should be a starter at CB?????

    • Haha (+1) 1
  15. 26 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

    Was referring to Douglas but I think Benford is above average, wouldn't mind seeing Elam try just to get him on the field..

    You're right but wasn't that when they were 30+?

     

    Rasul Douglas will be 29 when we kick off next season.

     

    What if Elam could finally grasp the CB position enough this offseason to start opposite Benford while simultaneously locking in a starting Free Safety for the next half decade?  We could also give Douglas an Extension more appropriate for a Safety than a CB, which would save us some money.

    • Eyeroll 1
  16. 5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

     

    I just don't see how a paycut would happen that would make sense for us and White would be okay with. I mean he'd pretty much have to rip up his contract and be paid like a reserve for it to make any sense.

     

    If White were a FA, he'd be only offered incentive laden prove it deals. He never fully returned to form following the ACL. He had one game where he looked to be close to his old self. Then the Achilles happened. That's two back to back injuries that causes players to lose a step. And he'll be almost 30 when he returns.

     

    I'm not a capologist, but I don't think there's a restructure on his massive deal that can be done that would be worth the risk and the reward. You don't want to bench an ascending young talent like Benford, who is the present and future on one side. And we didn't make the move for Douglas to bench him either. He was traded as White's replacement, in my opinion.

     

    They're our Starters going forward. Douglas will most likely get an extension this offseason. Then you still have Taron Johnson as the Nickel and Kaiir Elam, who showed something against Pittsburgh after being injured all year. Even he'll be a reserve. 

     

    Our starting CB's are set and we have a solid reserve that we invested a 1st in. White is a complete and total unknown at this point and is being paid like a Top Starting CB. If you remove emotion from the equation - it's really clear. There's a reason Spotrac and capologist has releasing Tre White as one of the first things we'll do.

     

    The out in his contract is now. And we have to get out from under it now. Maybe he comes back under an incentive laden deal after he sees the market he has is just that. But we have to move on with an injury settlement and take that money and get a TRUE Safety or one of the many other positions we need a starter at.

     

    You're not risking he can't return to form and being stuck paying good money for a position we're already set at, when money is tight and we have a number of positions that aren't set. It's a no brainer. Anyone who says otherwise is just thinking too emotionally.

     

    Sorry man... emotion is almost undoubtedly part of the equation with Tre.

     

    1st draft pick by McDermott. Team leader. Loved by teammates.

     

    Emotion is part of the equation because of what he's meant to this franchise.

     

    As for your whole dialogue about players not restructuring deals to take pay cuts. Mitch Morse did.

    • Disagree 1
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