Logic

The comment that Bills fans are "sleeping on" 7th year receiver Mack Hollins -- whose career high in single season receiving yards was 690 but who has had 250 yards or less in every other season of his career -- is kind of this debate in a nutshell. There's objective reality: Mack Hollins has been a very average, replacement level receiver his whole career, and has exceeded 300 yards in a season just once. Then there's hopium: Y'all are sleeping on him! Watch what he does with a real QB! It's the same with Hamler, with Claypool, Cephus, etc, etc. After two straight years of "we need to get Josh more weapons", the Bills have gotten WORSE at WR. It's telling that any time someone wants to argue that the Bills offense is in good shape personnel wise, they immediately start talking about tight ends and running backs. Why? Because the wide receiver room isn't good enough. The strategy at WR beyond "hope Coleman gets up to speed quickly", "hope Shakir breaks out", "Hope Curtis Samuel posts a career high in receiving yards" -- you'll notice the common denominator with the top three receivers is "hope", already not a promising start -- seems to be "hope that one of the average JAGs we sign exceeds expectations and suddenly plays good football". There again, a big dose of "let's hope". Hope is not a strategy. And all of this is even assuming that the top three guys stay healthy. If Coleman or Samuel suffers any kind of long term injury, God help us. Hope you're ready to see Mack Hollins or Quintez Cephus be our WR2 in a pivotal divisional matchup. Look...some of the most consistently optimistic, kool-aid drinking members on this forum -- myself included -- feel super down about the WR room right now. Why do you think that is? Did we all suddenly turn into negative Nellie curmudgeons over night? Or could it be that we're reading the tea leaves and recognizing that our front. office seems to be in Groundhog Day mode, YET AGAIN failing to give our franchise QB adequate help?

@BADOLBILZ I can send probably like $36 or so to One Bills Drive for Beane to put towards signing a legitimate receiver. Might you consider matching my donation? Or like...can YOU play receiver? Do you KNOW anyone that can play receiver? I've heard we're pivoting to big guys who are a load in the run game, so...Is your refrigerator fast when it's running? This is getting dire. We signed QUINTEZ CEPHUS. I had to look that up to make sure it was a real human person. Then we signed a receiver from Canada. CANADA, Badol. I feel like I'm being pranked and the reveal just hasn't happened yet.

What's weird to me is that the Chiefs continue to roll out turbo-boosted smurfs at WR, and yet they somehow continue to produce at a high level in the playoffs. They doubled down on the strategy this offseason, signing Hollywood Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy. Why is it that all they have to do is press our guys and play really physical with them, and it makes us change our whole team philosophy at WR, but we -- with our defense-minded head coach and frequent top five regular season defensive rankings -- somehow haven't figured out after four years of playoff battles how to slow THEIR small fast guys down?

1. Get bigger and slower at WR 2. Take the ball out of Josh Allen's hands more Perfect offseason so far.

OBJ off the board now, too. Beane emphatically stating that no trade for a WR is forthcoming. Bills further adding to their depth chart with Quintez Cephus and Chase Claypool. With each passing day, Mack Hollins grows closer to the starting lineup. Do margaritas still taste good if you put four shots in them? I'm gonna try it.

That's kind of the problem in a nutshell. You ran out of receivers to list after the first three, and had to start bringing up tight ends and running backs. Unfortunately, good NFL offenses require more than three capable receivers -- if for no other reason than depth in case of injury -- and the Bills currently don't have any. They're throwing a bunch of a vet minimum and special teams guys at the wall to see what sticks, hence my camp battle comments. I disagree that "we fine". I think we lack any capable receivers past the first three you listed (one of whom is a rookie and hasn't even proven to be capable yet), and Beane's strategy for solving that issue is to scrape the bottom of the barrel and to cross fingers and hope. But as I've said before: Hope is not a strategy.

Obviously correlation does not equal causation, but...

It's really a $3M deal. And yes, I would've done that. Ah well. Cephus/Hamler/Claypool/Shaver/Shorter camp battle, here we come!

Fair. Now if only there had been a way to find some cheap WR labor with actual talent and upside...Some kind of way where the Bills could have, say, 11 opportunities to add cost-controlled players, and could use two or three of those opportunities to add receivers. If only.

"Alright, my friend. Lesson 1: When the ongoing problem with your team is that its star quarterback isn't surrounded with enough offensive talent, the best way to attack the problem is to sign a bunch of veteran minimum guys and hope one breaks out!"

That's one way to describe what the Bills are doing, sure...

DJ Chark signs with the Chargers. Tyler Boyd signs with a team that already employs Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins. Odell Beckham Jr signs with a team that already employs Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios, and just drafted Malik Washington. The Bills sign...Chase Claypool and Quintez Cephus. I'm sure I'll get a few thumbs down and eyeroll emojis for pointing out the wildly uninspiring way in which the Bills are approaching the wide receiver position. Whatever. Pour me a ***** shot.

If the Bills plan on being a "run heavy" team going forward, I'm moving to Australia and following rugby instead. It's two-thousand-twenty-four and the Buffalo Bills employ Joshua Patrick Allen at quarterback. RUN HEAVY?!

Is adding like 47 bottom-of-the-barrel WRs in free agency the same as adding one or two good ones? Asking for a friend...

1.) I don't actually think you're wrong. I said multiple times on draft night and in the days to follow that I disliked the Coleman pick, and he was the receiver I LEAST wanted at that spot, and listed the reasons why. 2.) My response to your thread yesterday was more based on what I viewed to be a exaggeration and hyperbole on your part -- the statement "I don't see why anyone sees anything in him at all". One can dislike a prospect without needing to go over the top and suggest that he has absolutely no redeeming qualities whatsoever. 3.) Stalking you? I can't go into any Coleman thread the past couple days without seeing a re-post of that All Targets video from you. Even this silly, throwaway, "isn't he funny" thread, you somehow found a way to shoehorn in your killjoy narrative. 4.) "I'm very happy for you that you'd be perfectly content with some underachieving clown out there if that we're to be the case. Waaay too much is being made of this. It's like a bunch of drunk girls trying to convince themselves that some hot looking guy with the personality of a turnip is right for them." Like...what even IS that sentiment? It's not that serious, man. It's just football. It's entertainment. Bills fans are entertained by some jokes their new rookie made? Oh nooooo. WAY TOO MUCH IS BEING MADE OF THIS!!! I mustn't allow people to have a laugh! Grrrr. Have they SEEN his game against Duke?!?! You do you, man. If you wanna try to derail a thread about funny jokes and silliness with some game tape, Godspeed. I'm sure there's a few other threads you haven't posted that video in, too. Get to it!

Thanks. I always love the "comments from league execs and coaches" articles. They're awesome. Unfortunately, the comments about Coleman and Worthy match my own feelings. And the statement "there is now a big difference in the amount of speed around Mahomes and the amount of speed around Josh Allen". Yep. Not great, Bob.

Dude. This is a thread about how funny and likable Keon Coleman is as a human being. You're already pushing the "his 'all targets' video is terrible and he's irredeemably bad!" thing in another thread or two. Can't you just let people like this guy on a personal level, laugh at his jokes, and feel a little joy? Sheesh. Read the room.

If I even dare to suggest that Matt Milano may be in danger of starting the season on PUP, I'll be pilloried. So I won't dare to suggest it... ...but... This is certainly an interesting signing for a team that already boasted Milano, Bernard, Williams, Spector, Ulofoshio, Morrow. I see Milano, Bernard, Williams, Ulofoshio, and Morrow as the likely 5 LBs they keep (they kept 5 last year). If Milano were to start the season on PUP (which I don't even dare to suggest is a possibility), then it could come down to a battle between Spector and Jones for the 5th and final spot.

To your point, Alpha (even though I'm more on the Gunner side of things in this particular discussion).... Here's Justin Jefferson's pre-draft scouting report. You'll notice a couple key differences, but also a lot of similar language as is used about Keon. Granted, Jefferson also posted a 1500 yard, 18 TD season as a Jr, so that's a pretty big asterisk. Nevertheless, looking solely at the scouting report itself and the traits themselves: Overview A quarterback's best friend, with the contested-catch focus and extreme ball skills to boost completion percentages. Jefferson failed to stand out as an outside target but saw his stock soar with a monster season from the slot. He has decent speed and separation talent, but he needs to improve as a route-runner, as he's less likely to see the same freedom in space that LSU's offense helped create for him. He's slippery in space and able to stab and save throws with quick hands and fluid body adjustments. Teams looking for an inside/outside possession receiver with the size and savvy to make chain-moving catches could push Jefferson up the board. Strengths Good initial burst off the snap. Slippery working around traffic and redirection in space. Jab step gives separation from route stem more life. Naturally instinctive pass-catcher. Adjusts speeds to track throws and shield coverage. Makes twisting, twirling mid-air adjustments look easy. Ridiculous catch radius to help a quarterback out. Sharpened catch focus in 2019. Quick hands to stab anticipation throws coming out of breaks. Leaping and length carry him to the high point. Reliable from slot at making "gotta have it" catches to extend drives. Willing to do his part and give effort as slot blocker. Weaknesses Spread scheme threw field wide open for him. Needs more attention to detail with his routes. Too complacent to beat coverage with athletic ability. Unable to run away and separate from tight man. Size and strength across from him impede production. Will take time adjusting to press looks as a pro. Limited one-on-one prowess to win 50/50 throws. Separation talent just average outside.

I am on record in multiple threads about being unexcited about this pick. He was not who I wanted the Bills to take, and I've listed all the reasons why. When they announced his name, I was actively disappointed. With that said, while I appreciate the conclusion you came to after watching his "All Targets" video, I feel like you're being a bit unfair and unreasonable. Coleman was a consensus top 40 player in this draft. There was barely an outlet anywhere that didn't list him as such. We saw Bill Belichick's draft board on the McAfee pre-draft show, and it had Coleman as a top 40 player. We know for sure the Bills had him there. Rumors are that the Patriots wanted to draft him as well, and in any case, he likely would've never fallen past pick 40 at the very latest. My point is that your comments about "wondering why anyone sees anything in him at all" indicate to me that you might be out of your depth. That is to say, there must be a REASON so many different pro scouts and analysts saw enough potential in Coleman to grade him as a second round prospect. The fact that you fail to see what that reasons might be suggests that maybe you're not sure what to be looking for. Now don't get me wrong -- the pros get it wrong sometimes, too, and busts and bad players are routinely drafted high. But Beane has a reasonably good draft track record (I said reasonably good, not elite) and an army of scouts that do this for a living, and they saw fit to draft Coleman with the 33rd pick. Surely there must be SOME reason. Surely there must be SOME redeeming qualities. While I still don't like pick, I can at least admit that he has positive and moldable qualities. Your analysis makes it sound like he's a 5th to 7th round prospect -- if not outright undraftable -- and that just strikes me as overkill. I can't help but wonder what your conclusion would've been about Josh Allen if you had watched an "all throws" video from his final college season.

I really WANT to like Hamler and be excited about him. He was a 2nd round pick, and he posted 900 yards and 8 touchdowns as a freshman at Penn State. He's got great speed and quicks. The issue is that he just CANNOT stay healthy. He's about as snake-bitten health wise as any player I've ever seen in the NFL. I don't have the laundry list of injuries here in front of me, but it's not pretty. There's a reason that the team that drafted him finally said "enough is enough". After a slightly promising rookie year, he played just 10 games across the next two years combined, during which he posted just 12 total receptions. Then last season it was discovered that he has pericarditis. So he has a chronic condition AND an injury history. I'd love him to be past his injury woes as much as the next guy, but to expect him to suddenly break out and be any kind of consistently healthy and consistently productive receiving threat four years after he left college seems ill advised. I'll consider him to be in the same boat as Andy Isabella until further notice: A fast guy to compete in training camp, but the odds of him making the 53-man roster and producing seem very low. Wishful thinking and "potential" only, as far as I can see. As BADOL pointed out recently (God, what has my Bills fandom come to when I'm quoting BADOL?!), we don't have a receiver on our roster who has ever posted a 1,000 yard receiving season. People feel like Samuel has the potential to do it, but even in his best season under our current OC, he didn't crack 875. People feel like Coleman has the potential to do it, but he's a 20 year old rookie. People feel like Shakir will take a big step forward and year three and may be able to do it, but he has yet to prove that he actually can. If everyone's most optimistic outlook for our WR corps comes to pass, then the "underrated WRs" take will be true. But how often does the entirety of the most optimistic outlook come to fruition? Hope is not a strategy, unless you're the 2024 Buffalo Bills offense, apparently.

Thanks, Shaw. I DO think, as you say in your last paragraph, that he has a good chance to succeed. And maybe I should have more faith in the coaches to help ensure that he does. I think what I fear is that -- given his young age and how raw he is, generally speaking -- that it might take him a while to succeed. That he might be a premiere receiver in this league by year three, but the Bills very much need him in year one. Now, if the Bills had made moves to NOT need him so much in year one, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. If Coleman isn't being counted on to be a big factor until, say, week 6, then it currently means that Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter or Tyrell Shavers is being counted on during that time instead, and you'll have to forgive me for being not at all confident in that being a good thing. I already mentioned strongly hoping that Beane keeps adding to the WR room, and you mentioned that you think he's likely not done adding there. I really hope this is the case. Right now, for the Bills to succeed optimally on offense, they're going to NEED Coleman to hit the ground running. If they put themselves in less of a position to NEED that by adding a capable veteran, I'll feel a lot better about things.

This is where I've come to on Coleman as well. After my initial disappointment and teeth gnashing subsided and I allowed myself to become excited about what he seems to do WELL rather than what he DOESN'T do well, I've slowly accepted that he has the upside and skillset to potentially become a very good NFL receiver.....eventually. The issue, as you point out, is that they need him NOW, and Beane said as much recently. Where I think Coleman would have the best chance to succeed is if he had been added to a WR depth chart that didn't need him to produce right away. That could use him situationally and scheme him up and bring him along slowly. I also think his best chance at success is to be a move player, a big slot, and to line up off the line of scrimmage more often than not. Instead, he will seemingly have neither of those two luxuries. He joined a team that's gonna depend on him right away, and he joined a team that seems dead set on using him as a traditional X receiver. My worry about Coleman has thus shifted. I'm not as worried about him purely as a prospect -- clearly he's talented. Instead, I'm worried that his early workload and the way the Bills seem to want to use him will not be setting him up for success. I really, REALLY hope they add a WR of significance after June 1st, be it via trade or free agency. Even someone who is only serviceable (like the current version of Odell Beckham) would take some pressure off of Coleman and would be able to provide some on-field mentorship. As things stand now, I feel like there is a clear path to success for Keon Coleman, and that the Bills do not currently seem to be headed down that path.

KJ Hamler is the new blue medical tent threat.