oldmanfan

Just one time you should have the sense to admit you're wrong and learn something from others who have a greater understanding of things like statistics, accuracy, etc. You are confusing accuracy and precision, like many. Allen is pretty accurate in that his receivers can make a play on his passes. He needs to be more precise. Really good QBs are both. And to say the pundits are looking at every throw is , to use your favorite word, nonsense. Most of the stuff I read harps on the completion percentage stuff, and even Rodak posted the other day that if you look at the adjusted rate he's middle of the pack. Statistical analysis in general for pro sports is overly simplified and does not use multivariate analysis to take into account the multiple variables that can affect something as simple as whether a pass gets completed or not. And missing Clay by 8 yards is simply silly reasoning. The ball hit him in both hands. Was Clay supposed to just stand still in the back of the end zone, or does he have any responsibility to adjust to the throw. Professional football players are supposed to catch balls that hit them in the hands.

You also continually demonstrate you do not understand what the term accurate means.

Actually he's not. And I and others have explained numerous things the fallacy of completion percentage as a measure of accuracy. But you refuse to accept this because it interferes with your bias that he's bad.

Way to cherry pick quotes.

I like what I see from the kid. The only real criticism I'd have from yesterday is he did that thing again when he was scrambling to his right and threw across his body again towards the middle of the field and almost got picked. He has to stop doing that.

I was astounded McKenzie came back. Thought it was an Achilles for sure. Wonder if Murphy plays next week since they popped it back in.

Good work by the OP. I don't necessarily agree on the interpretation of each throw, but by breaking it down like that it shows Allen is actually pretty accurate. Much better than a cursory look at completion percentage.

If they play any position on offense other than QB I'm all for whomever.

For the first time in a long time I feel like we have a QB that can win us a game in the fourth quarter

That's not how it works. Wait too long you get sacked.

No one was open?

Yep

He took what he thought was a free shot deep. Clearly oddsides

Two teams not afraid to throw at Tre last week and this week. Young man needs to step up. I suspect he will.

This Golliday kid is for real. Any chance he's a FA?

You have to love the kid

Tre is human

Teller needs to keep his head up. Was looking to his right and never saw that guy coming

They punted cause Hauschka is hurt. Wake up folks

Helluva an effort Mills

Your # 1 should demand a double team on every play.

I think Allen probably had more time than he thought and could have set his feet more. And when you say hit him in the numbers, that's all well and good. But how many QBs even when being set with their feet hit a guy right in the numbers from 50 yards away? Very few. Bottom line is Clay has to catch that ball. As for all the stats and junk, as I have pointed out a number of times now, people confuse accuracy and precision. I will mention the dartboard analogy once again. If you surround the bull's eye consistently but don't hit the center of the bull's eye, you are accurate. But you are not precise. If you throw every dart on top of each other, but you are two inches away from the bull's eye, you are precise, but you are not accurate. Allen is pretty accurate; most all his throws are within the catch radius of his receiver where they can make a play. Last game I saw two throws, one to Thompson and one over the middle to Ike, that were truly inaccurate. He like may Qbs could stand to be more precise, while also being accurate. Guys that have high accuracy and high precision are your stars. Now as for this completion percentage stuff, a true statistical interpretation of such would involve adding a lot more variables into the equation than most do. Things like the play call on both sides of the ball, quality of the WR and the DBs playing against such, atmospheric conditions, as just a few. I think it is fairly well established in the college game that many guys have high completion rates because they throw a lot of very short passes to WRs that are better at what they do than the DBs trying to cover. In the pros you have so many different route combinations, preferences of the OCs, etc it's hard to compare. Watching the Bills offense, it seems clear their preference right now is to throw down field a lot more than other teams, and that would of course affect completion percentage. Last game I counted three throw aways and three flat out drops by Allen's receivers, which would have moved his completion rate into the 60's. Which is why using completion rate for some measure of accuracy is a fallacy. You want to assess his accuracy, the best way is to actually look at all his individual throws. He is fairly accurate, but needs to be more precise with placement. The kid, and I emphasize kid, has work to do. Like many young QBs the game has to slow down, and it looks like it is. He seems quicker at making reads now, still needs to work on the correct read of course, and he has thrown some very nice balls the past few weeks. Still misses a few, but all this should improve with time. Unfortunately in a world of Internet and smart phones and drive through McDonald's the impatience of society at large and Bills fans in particular think a kid with 8 games under his bely should already be a mature, finished product.

Don't know if you ever played football, but I did when I was a kid. Was a receiver actually. And even in pee wees my coach would tell me if you get two hands on the ball you have to catch it. Clay has to catch that ball. Allen could have thrown it one more yard I suppose while running for his life, so Clay would not have had to go down to the ground to get it. But Clay had two hands on the ball and didn't get the job done.

You're correct that three passes a game, if you throw 36 times, would get Allen from 50% to the magic 60% that so many obsess over. He averages about 3 throwaways a game because either his line can't block or his receivers can't get open or both. Thus the reason why completion percentage has nothing to do with accuracy. Watching everyy throw last week out of 36 there were two, maybe three that were truly inaccurate. Is that different than most guys? Maybe. He has work to do, but so do so many that incorrectly look at stats.

Allen has work to do. No question. Overall Bucky's analysis was OK except for thinking Clay has any value. But as I have pointed out a number of times now this accuracy thing and this 60% completion rate thing are fallacies. Let's take last game 18/36 for a 50% completion rate. To get to 60% he has to complete 21 passes (actually 21.6). So that's either 3 drops or three throwaways, none of which have anything to do with his accuracy. Like any young QB he needs to work on his reads, needs to work on recognizing where guys are open, etc. But as far as throwing a football, about the only thing he needs is more touch especially on the short stuff, which should not be a problem.