HappyDays

Can't remember where I saw it but one analyst said he heard trade ups this year are being discounted to 70 cents on the dollar. In other words the prospects are seen as so similar after the top 10 or so that the normal draft trade chart won't apply. If we want to trade up we can do it for cheaper than usual, if we trade back we won't get as much value. I'm of the opinion we should just stick and pick this year. Probably the best we can get in a trade back is an additional 4th which we really don't need this year. Or if someone like Harmon slides due to medicals I'd be okay using our late 4th to trade up for him.

Finally finished listening and yeah this was excellent. Hope you guys do this every year.

Giving it a listen now. This is the first podcast I've heard in a while that didn't feature a Manscaped ad read so we're off to a good start.

With the 13th pick the Dolphins select Will Johnson, CB, Michigan. Indy @BigdaddyinOrlando is on the clock. This is a sprint to the podium pick. Jalen Ramsey is likely to be traded this offseason so we are rebuilding basically our entire secondary. Getting the best CB in the draft if you exclude Travis Hunter is a great start. Will Johnson is big, fluid, and instinctive. Questions remain on his long speed and his tackling but everything else is as clean a fit as you will find to the NFL. The bottom line is he can cover and he can anticipate routes at an elite level.

A few Bills relevant nuggets:

https://steelersdepot.com/2025/04/analyst-hears-oregon-dl-derrick-harmon-could-slide-due-to-medical-concerns/ If Harmon drops to 30 I think you have to take him... Take the BPA and figure out CB later. Collins at 56 would also be a really good pick IMO and maybe the injury will make him available there.

I'll take the Chiefs too if we don't get enough GMs

I disagree. CB was clearly a massive problem for us in the AFCCG. Great CBs might not make as many flashy plays as WRs and pass rushers but taking away an entire side of the field is still valuable. A lot of what you're saying could apply to LTs too. I wouldn't trade up for either of those positions the way I would a WR or pass rusher but they're still absolutely worth taking in the 1st because if you don't have one you're at a huge disadvantage.

Dolphins Chiefs Jets

I'll be honest I don't have much of an educated opinion on him. I'm a big bet on traits guy in the 1st round, but 4.5 sacks in 3 years of college is really pushing the limit on what's acceptable for the floor vs ceiling conversation IMO. Personally I wouldn't trade up for anybody in this class, but if the Bills did I could see it being for Stewart because of the traits.

I voted #1. I'd say for Shemar Stewart who is projected as a possible top 10 pick but lack of production may realistically drop him to around #20. He has the elite athletic traits we know this regime favors, he fills a need, and he was a top 30 visit. That's a semi-realistic option so I'd be interested to see how that affects our draft, although I wouldn't support that move in real life.

I don't necessarily mind the signing especially since I expect the real salary to be minimal. I just don't want it to turn into a thing where it's week 8 and our highly drafted rookie can't get on the field because Tre is in front of him. From a pure football perspective I feel about this signing the same way that I would if we had re-signed Douglas. Which is to say I hope the intention is for him to be nothing more than depth that happens to have familiarity with the system. I unfortunately don't have any optimism he can get back anywhere near the player he once was. I'd love to be proven wrong but I think physically he is done. I've seen a growing narrative that he was a good player for Baltimore. I mean he was better than he was with LA almost by default, but he also only played 34% of defensive snaps for Baltimore. Brandon Stephens was getting deliberately targeted by their opponents and was widely hated by their fanbase, and they still opted to keep him as the starter in front of Tre. So I would keep the expectations low.

Looks like the dead cap will remain so we'll essentially be paying him twice... Bizarre.

So I just remembered we have $4.1M in dead cap on Tre this year... Does signing him change that?

But that's the weird part. It feels almost insulting to sign a former franchise cornerstone to have him come in and compete for a job or be just a depth player, after dumping him for cap space just one year ago. I can't imagine Tre in a Bills jersey just sitting on the sidelines or on the inactive list. Maybe Beane genuinely thinks he can recover back to some of his old self again? But the last time we saw him he was getting beat cleanly by Keon Coleman and having to grab him to prevent a big completion. Not exactly a great lasting impression.

Yeah maybe I am reading too much into it. Tre looked cooked last year with the Ravens. It is just such a weird move to sign a former franchise cornerstone turned JAG, to apparently have him compete for a backup role with Dane Jackson? I can't make heads or tails of it.

Wow that certainly complicates the draft plans. Now if we draft a CB early they don't necessarily have a clear path to start. I no longer have any clue what to expect next week.

Nah, they did the right thing making the meeting a short formality and cutting ties with him entirely. His opinions on "culture" are worthless.

I genuinely believe him when he said Elam was sticking out with a 1st round grade. I'm sure the need helped influence his decision to trade up. The problem was they completely misevaluated the player. I think they got bamboozled by that damn notebook and though he fit their DNA and could be coached up. Hopefully they learned their lesson and will take a cleaner scheme and talent fit this time around.

I'm in favor of trading back. Ideally do it with a team that wants to jump KC for an OT. That way we get some draft capital back and screw over our rival in the process. And one of Amos, Revel, or Hairston should still be there in the mid 30s. After that use our late 4th to trade up in the 2nd from #56. And then trade up into the 3rd from #109. Ideally you end up with two top 50 players, and then two more top 90 players. This draft doesn't have a lot of star potential but it has a lot of starter potential. Get 4 legit starters and if your scouting is right hopefully one of them develops into an elite player.

Teams place prospects in tiers. Top 10, 1st round, borderline 1st/2nd, etc. I don't think within those tiers the specific order is all that important. If Beane has a player sticking out from a higher tier then he should take that player no matter what, and I'm sure he would like he did with Kincaid in 2023 even though TE was not a need, but within the tier he and any GM is going to select the player that fills the biggest need. The difference between the 30th and the 31st graded player is negligible. If the 31st graded player is a CB and Beane feels the talent will drop off quickly at that position then he would be right to take that player. This problem isn't unique to the Bills. Every team enters the draft with a big need. KC needs OL help and everyone knows it. Baltimore needs an outside CB and everyone knows it. It's an inevitable consequence of the FA era that no team can fill all of their needs before the draft. My issue with Beane has never been his draft process, it's been his player evaluation. Elam was a bad pick but Kyler Gordon would have been a very good pick. The process was fine, the scouting was wrong. Similarly this year if we draft a CB as seems likely he needs to pick the right player. Going in with the intention of drafting a CB unless some other player really sticks out on the board is a fine plan IMO.

I don't have any doomsday scenarios. There are however some players that I would feel underwhelmed with at #30: Kenneth Grant (unpopular opinion, I know) Azareye’h Thomas Tyleik Williams Nick Emmanwori JT Tuimoloau But also I'm not going to make any snap judgments on any pick we make. The last time I had a snap negative judgment on a pick it was Josh Allen. I've learned my lesson. Weirdly enough I feel the opposite. I find that the lead up to the draft is a lot more fun when I have no clue who we're going to take. There's at least a dozen different players that are realistic options for us and I've enjoyed evaluating them all and developing my preferences.