HappyDays

Right. So when I say we probably need our offense to be ranked #1 to get further in the playoffs, this is what I'm referring to. Top 10 isn't good enough. Even top 5 production hasn't been good enough like you point out. We need an offense that can overcome historically bad defensive production.

The offense was not adequate in that playoff game as evidenced by the fact that they scored less points than their opponent. I think every single person in this discussion secretly agrees with each other. Everyone knows the Bills will have a good offense but not a blow you away offense. We can quibble a bit on the exact expected rankings and stats, but really I don't think anyone on here disagrees with that general statement. So what it really boils down to is whether that caliber of offense is championship caliber and I think past playoff experience under this regime would indicate heavily that it is not. For me the most likely source of optimism isn't that every single pass catcher on offense is going to exceed their career production to the point that we become a blow you away offense; it's that Bobby Babich will be the DC in more than just name and will turn out to be an elite defensive coach. On that point I actually am willing to wait and see. I just wish we had chosen the path of most likely success, which would have been over-investing in the offense and trying to just steamroll teams all the way to the Super Bowl. Even if that kind of turnaround didn't happen in a single offseason, I would have been happy with just a sign that the regime was making it their new philosophy. Instead they invested basically the bare minimum on offense and appear to be rolling along with the same philosophy that has failed them time and time again. We just have to hope this time they happen to be right.

It's not really a complaint, just a matter of fact. We need an offense that can score at will, including in the playoffs. I actually think this is where the disconnect lies between both sides in this discussion. Nobody thinks the offense is going to suck. Josh Allen means we are basically guaranteed a top 10 offense. It's just that top 10 is not equivalent to championship caliber. If you adjust your perspective to that, you'll understand why so many of us are unsatisfied with the offensive investments. I agree it is dramatic. But when your defense is consistently giving up historically bad production in the playoffs, you need a historically productive offense to overcome that, no?

Based on our defensive performance every single playoff run every single year. What team have you been watching? We'll probably need a top 1 offense to compete for a championship, honestly. Top 10 isn't acceptable. That's the bare minimum expectation with Allen.

A championship?

Top 10 isn't good enough, that's the issue.

Adding Aiyuk or Adams would immediately transform our pass catchers to a top 8ish group IMO. Having a legit #1 outside WR on the roster changes everything. Shakir and Samuel would have much more favorable matchups. MVS and Claypool would be fighting it out for the 6th spot instead of both likely seeing a significant amount of targets. Coleman could be eased in. Hollins could mainly just focus on special teams. I hope Beane at least tries. He tried to give Arik Armstead the same money that Jacksonville gave him. Use that money and give Allen the caliber of weapons that he deserves.

I supported both the trade back and drafting Coleman. Exactly what happened was literally my dream scenario. Still I do not think WR was sufficiently addressed this offseason. In fact that's two years in a row that the Bills took my draft crush with their first pick. Still I wish they had done more. For me the individual moves are secondary to the larger philosophy. My personal player preferences are just opinions. The idea that the Bills need to overinvest in pass catchers is, to me, a cold hard fact. I would have rather taken Worthy followed by Franklin than just Coleman alone, even though I liked Coleman better than both of those players, because the first scenario would have represented what I KNOW to be a necessary change in the teambuilding philosophy. Instead I fear this regime has learned nothing and is stubbornly continuing to prioritize the wrong positions.

If nothing else you can tell he really wants it. His natural physical traits combined with his work ethic and attitude make me optimistic he will be ready sooner rather than later. His cuts in this clip already look noticeably better than the limited clips we saw out of OTAs.

Right so in that context what Mahomes did was even stupider if we take your theory of ideal QB play in that situation. The Chiefs needed just a FG to win the game. Inarguably the best case scenario was picking up a 1st and then kicking a FG as time expired. Whereas with us we needed a TD to have any kind of chance of winning the game in regulation. But Mahomes didn't try to perfectly thread the needle. He tried to score a TD on a play that his coaches clearly designed to be a TD. You're the only person I've seen try to claim otherwise. The hold redirected JuJu's route?? You know that's not how routes work, right? A hold doesn't "redirect" a WR from a horizontal route to a vertical route. You're just making crap up because you're starting with the supposition that "smarter" QBs don't try to throw TDs in those situations. Mahomes is a smarter QB, therefore he must have been doing something else on that play. Yeah man because sometimes Mahomes throws bad passes. His tackles get beat off the snap, he's about to get crushed, and his mechanics are way off. He threw it in the direction of his first read 1v1 to try and score a TD and the pass was off the mark. I don't know what else to tell you.

Are you for real man? Like actually? JuJu is running basically a slot fade into the endzone. What are you even talking about? You think the plan was for him to catch the ball exactly past the sticks and then just tumble to the ground? Is this really the narrative you have to come up with to try and prove that smarter QBs than Allen don't take shots at the endzone in situations like this? This is nuts man. Dude if I had a nickel for every time Mahomes aggressively wagged his finger in the direction of an incomplete pass, I'd be Travis Kelce's girlfriend.

No I don't think Mahomes thought he saw a holding that not everybody even agrees was a good call and decided to throw the ball in that direction to maybe draw a flag to run the clock down. Because that's utterly ridiculous. The kind of bizarre narrative a person only comes up with when they've backed themselves into a corner in a debate. Here's the actual play: Mahomes is looking at JuJu the whole time, pre-snap even. Very clearly that is the first read. As soon as he confirms the nearest safety's leverage he's just taking a 1v1 shot to his guy running towards the endzone. This is a TD shot, clear as day. Not a galaxy brain 4D chess draw a holdng flag shot. That's nonsense and you know it. Occam's razor - great QBs go for the endzone when they can. They don't turn down open TD windows to chase perfect game clock scenarios. Like I said, there are plenty of criticisms to make of that final drive. Choosing to try and score a TD over trying to perfectly thread the game clock needle is not one of them. Me, I am still baffled as to how Dawkins ended up 1v1 vs Chris Jones on a TD shot play... Just terrible situational game management in a critical moment, same as usual under this regime.

That's really your interpretation? This is weak. Everyone else saw Mahomes try to throw a TD to take the lead in the Super Bowl. But no, he tried to draw attention to a defensive holding that happened as/after he was gearing up to throw the ball. Sure. Whatever works better for your side of the debate. The correct interpretation is that any QB worth his salt is going for the TD in that situation. Not pre-determining that his defense is going to fail. I'm sorry but that is total nonsense. I have plenty of criticisms of that final series. Trying to score a TD one minute too early isn't one of them.

So in your opinion, in the 2023 Super Bowl, Mahomes made a mistake when he threw a 3rd and 8 pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster in the endzone with 1:54 remaining? Surely there was somebody open underneath to keep the clock running so they could just kick a walk off field goal. Right?

Yes it is rather striking that an offense which featured 1-2 HOF pass catchers at any given time and a HOF offensive coach has been outscored by our offense over a 4 year period. One specific thought comes to mind. Here's an unrelated thread I'm randomly posting a link to: But anyways it's undeniable the Chiefs have had better offensive talent every single year Allen has been our QB. Their #1 and #2 pass catchers have been superior to ours each of those years. This year that will almost certainly be the case again unless Kelce shatters his knee and Rice is suspended the entire season.

It's impossible to know for sure. That's why these debates will never end. But Brady had the best coaching staff of all time to go along with an extremely deep and talented roster. One of Manning's two Super Bowl rings came in the worst season of his career, which kind of makes the point for me. FWIW I've been dying on this hill for years, it pre-dates Allen by a lot. I've tried working out in my head what percentage of the team's success a QB is responsible for. Roughly I would say in the modern NFL offense is 45%, defense 35%, special teams 5%, coaching 15%. Even being generous and saying the QB is worth 75% of the offense's success that still puts them as only worth 33.75% of the team's success. Basically 1/3 at most and that's if you're really generous. Obviously that is insanely high value for a single player, but still the way these conversations go you would think QBs are worth 60% of their team's success. Logically (and mathematically) that makes no sense at all. And yes if you couldn't tell I've thought way too hard about this and probably should be diagnosed with a mental disorder.

I don't really understand why that's controversial. Brady himself finally got saddled with a terrible roster to finish his career in NE. His career was apparently over, or so the casual football fans believed. Instead he transferred to the best roster in football and immediately won another Super Bowl. Stop and think about what you're arguing. You're trying to say that QB performance is literally worth more than the performance of rest of the team and coaching staff combined. That very clearly is not true. QBs represent a plurality of their team's success, not a majority.

If your argument requires you to concede that Brock Purdy was a better QB than Mahomes and Allen (and many others) for any period of time, you should probably just re-evaluate your argument.

Allen has better playoff stats than Mahomes over the course of their careers. I've mostly avoided this thread because the back and forth arguments are entirely predictable and have been done to death. It's boring at this point. Personally I think since 2020 Allen and Mahomes have alternated. Mahomes was better in 2020 and 2022, Allen was better in 2021 and 2023. But it really doesn't matter which QB is #1 and which is #2. Whatever difference exists between Allen and Mahomes is not the reason they have 4 Super Bowl appearances to our 0. For the record I think if Manning and Brady had swapped places their playoff success would also be swapped. I say that even with the belief that Brady was a little better than Manning throughout their careers. People just put way way too much emphasis on that sliver of difference that exists between two great players.

I don't discount Mahomes' greatness or his contribution to the Chiefs playoff record over the last few years.

Right. The top 2 QBs in football last year were Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson. Followed very closely by Jared Goff and Dak Prescott. Everybody has been saying this.

Wait now you're placing player execution on coaching? You're all over the place in this discussion.

So when you said it is not clear that Allen is #2 and said that risk of injury is one of the reasons to believe this, that isn't something you personally believe? Alright. FWIW I'm fine including injury risk in the evaluation of QBs which is why Burrow is very clearly #3 at best.

Lol what? Allen has started more consecutive games than any other player in the NFL and it isn't close. Who is his competition by this weird injury standard you've created? Burrow? Jackson? Yeah good luck with that one.