jrober38

I don't think we can live with the player you just described on a long term basis. I think there need to be major signs of improvement from him as a passer next year. Not to shock anyone, but in 3-4 years once he's taken 300-400 hits (sacks, tackles after running, roughing the passer calls, hits in the pocket) Allen isn't going to be running as much. As he gets older, and the wear and tear of the NFL takes its toll on his body, he's going to need to make a living from the pocket, and being able to live with passes thrown at running back's ankles and missed passes to open receivers down field won't be good enough. As for the interception - it was literally the same bone head throw he made against Green Bay. You'd have thought he'd have learned his lesson then, but he clearly didn't. Not only did he throw the pick today, but he attempted the exact same pass in the 3rd quarter, only that one managed to fall incomplete.

I just rewatched the Clay drop. He's running a post route which gets on him a bit faster than he expected, and he reaches out his arms trying to pluck the ball below his waist, which while running up the field is a tough catch to make as he's initially looking for the ball over his shoulder and it comes in lower than expected. Try it. Imagine you're looking for a ball over your shoulder, and then imagine the ball is thrown below your waist. That's not a natural catch position. Should the ball have been caught? Yup. Should the ball have been thrown better? Absolutely. The issue is that even if caught, Clay is going to the ground, negating any run after catch because the ball is too low. It's an over the shoulder throw off play action that Allen needs to drop in bucket, and because there's no air under the ball Clay has to adjust his arm placement and winds up reaching down for the ball and dropping it. It's an easy throw that Allen needs to make. Clay is literally wide open with no defender covering him and the pocket is totally clean.

In all seriousness I don't remembering him making any. Most of his better passes were bullets off play action.

Experience has nothing to do with missing easy throws. You can't miss wide open receivers at the NFL level. Simple as that. Allen struggles badly anytime he throws with touch. He's great at the passes he needs to throw hard but he misses too many easy ones.

The throw to Clay was an awful throw. He's wide open and Allen throws a bullet at his knees instead of easing it out in front of him. Should have been an easy throw and catch and Allen whipped it too low in a spot he needed to dive for it. Allen struggles badly to throw with touch. Unless he's throwing the ball on a rope he's often overthrowing passes or throwing them at his receivers ankles. This has been an issue all season. He left 4 or 5 easy completions on the field today because the easy throws don't come naturally to him. Our team struggles to generate yards after the catch because Allen isn't consistent with his ball placement.

Allen missed 4-5 throws today that an NFL QB has to make. The "drop" by Clay on the 2nd drive was a terrible throw. The guy is wide open with nothing but green grass in front of him and Allen threw a bullet at his ankles. Should he have caught it, sure, but why is Allen not just laying the ball in front of him letting him run under it for a huge gain? There was another pass to Thompson. He ran an in cut, then cut to the sideline. Allen threw it out of his reach and it should have been an easy catch and run for a 1st down. I think we settled for the 55 yard field goal that Haushka missed. Past that there were a handful of short dump offs that he literally just throws at his receivers ankles. There were also a couple examples where Allen bailed on the play too early when he had open receivers. There was one in particular where it was play action and Allen rolled right. Jones ran a corner route, was wide open and instead of pulling the trigger Allen ran for a couple yards. Allen's running ability is amazing, and his protection is often terrible, but he's still missing routine throws that have to be completed at this level. He has a few of these throws every week where he misses easy throws and it's really getting to be unacceptable. His insistence on rolling right and throwing back into the middle of the field is also getting old. The first interception was a throw an NFL QB should never attempt. This game should have been a blow out for the Bills. Allen needs to clean up the terrible turnovers and really needs to start completing easy touch passes when his receivers are running wide open with room to run. If he can do that and figure out how to complete the dumpoffs he'll be pretty good.

Harry or AJ Brown seem to have the most #1 WR traits. They both run the full route tree and can run after the catch. Beyond them there are another 5-6 high quality prospects to look at but I'm not sure any of them are as complete as those two.

Sure, that would be ideal, but I think it's a big ask over one offseason. I think they'll target a high end interior lineman from free agency and a rookie RT from the draft. Then they'll open up other spots to competition. This draft is loaded at WR. There will be a bunch of good options to choose from.

Foster looks like a good situational deep threat, #3 type guy. Jones looks like he could be a #2 guy. We still need an Alpha WR though who defenses have to account for, but I agree the WR no longer looks like it needs a total overhaul. We really just need a true #1 guy.

I think Allen has had his own eureka moment over the past couple weeks. He went from hearing how big, strong and athletic he was, to figuring out on an NFL field that he can just outrun defenders. Linemen and linebackers can't keep up with him, and he's strong enough to shrug off arm tackles which is amazingly impressive. As a passer, I don't think he's there yet, but his running ability is remarkable. He's figured out that if his 1st, or 2nd reads aren't open, he can run around and buy time and allow his receivers to get uncovered as he scrambles outside the pocket. This is both good and bad, although probably more of a glass is half full situation. The good is that he's capable of making big plays that few QBs in the league can make. The bad is that our offense is susceptible to long stretches where they do nothing. Case and point our offense did nothing in the first half against the Dolphins, and Allen only had 50 yards passing. In the pocket is where I find Allen still struggles. He still has the occasional head scratching throw where he misses a "gimme" that could move the chains or put us in 3rd and short. These were on tape at Wyoming and they're been something he does a couple times a game as a Bill. Where he struggles most is anytime he has to put air under the ball. It simply doesn't come naturally to him. He can throw the ball 80 yards, but he's consistently struggled to hit wide open targets on deep balls throughout this season. I get that completing a 65 yard pass isn't easy, but each time he's missed the WR has 2-3 full steps of separation and he has to start hitting these at some point. Foster got open against Miami, and he got open a couple times the first 2-3 weeks of the season and Josh hasn't hit him yet. He needs to figure out how to put the ball in spots where his guy can comfortably adjust their route and run under it, vs having them go full speed and hitting them in stride. On shorter touch passes he's also been inconsistent. He missed one to Foster down the sideline, and he missed an easy one to Jones up the sideline after he rolled out to his right. The one to Jones would have been negated by a penalty, but he still needs to hit it. Simply put - you can't miss wide open receivers at this level. All in all, I thought Allen was awful his first 5 games pre injury. He's been a lot better since. His running ability is truly elite, and that alone gives him a higher floor than expected. He can run around and make plays and should be able to put some points on the board. My original issue with him remains, which is that he's not very good from the pocket. He's a 23 year old kid with minimal wear on his tires who can happily run around, make big throws and take the hits that come with them. Eventually those are going to take a toll though, because they take a toll on every QB. When he's 27, and has taken 400+ hits (sacks, QB hits, tackles at the end of runs) his body isn't going to be as limber. The running will decrease, and he'll become more and more dependent on his ability as a passer to make plays. The signs over the past 2 weeks are relatively positive, but there's a long way to go before he's a drop back QB who can chuck it 40 times a game.

Allen played great on Sunday. His scrambling ability is incredible and he's pretty good as a passer when he can let it rip. His touch passes and deep balls aren't very good, but with practice they should get better (particularly the deep ball). Allen has missed numerous deep balls this year to wide open receivers. He needs to learn to put more air under the ball and throw it to where his guy can round off his route, allowing him to be less precise. For example, on the deep ball to Foster, he doesn't need to throw it to the goal line right out in front of Foster. Throw it towards the very middle of the field or even the left hash, and let Foster adjust to the ball and round off his route at the end. That should come with more practice.

The Bills probably try to bring a few of their own players back. Kyle Williams, Lorenzo Alexander, Jordan Mills, Jordan Phillips, Matt Barkley and they probably tender all of their exclusive rights free agents. Looking at the roster, our biggest needs (duh!) on O are on the OL and WR. The WR free agent class is very weak, and I'm not in favour of overpaying a bunch of #2 and #3 receivers to perform at a level they're incapable of. As a result, I'd like to see them go after an elite interior offensive lineman to shore things up there. A right tackle would also make sense, but I'm not sure you're finding anyone better than Jordan Mills who is under the age of 30. This spot probably makes sense to target in the 1st or 2nd round of the draft. Otherwise, going position by position, there's really not much that's going to be available. Mostly older players in their 30s coming off big contracts, but no one I'd love to see the Bills splash big money on which is why I think they should keep going after deals, and focus most of their attention on the draft.

I just don't see it. The odds of the Bills getting two quality linemen and pulling off a trade when there are so many other teams out there with tons of cap space and in need of OL help just doesn't seem like something that will happen. One elite vet and a draft pick from one of our first three picks seems achievable. I can see us picking another OL with one of our day 3 picks as well.

Tyrell Williams does nothing for me. In no world is he a #1 receiver in the NFL. He's a decent #2 as a deep threat, but he's never going to be a guy who gets 7-10 targets a game. Julio Jones is someone who would make sense. He's not happy with his contract and we can pay him a fortune over the next 3 years. He would be the ideal player to put with Josh Allen for the next couple years. Big, strong, physical, and one of the best deep threats in the league. Alternatively the WR draft class looks to be absolutely loaded. There are several guys with future #1 ability.

I doubt it. Beane knows the reason they're rebuilding is because they poured so much money into free agents 4 years ago. I doubt they repeat that mistake by handing out close to the most money in the NFL again by adding multiple free agents and veteran contracts via trades. I think they'll be selective and continue adding cheap vets who fill specific roles and investing in high end prospects in the draft.

I don't think Allen has shown much progress as a passer from the pocket. He's essentially the same now as he was at the beginning of the season. I do however think he's shown progress on the mental side of the game in terms of how he approaches things. Allen has quickly figured out that he's at the top of the food chain in the NFL. He's bigger, stronger, and faster than the guys assigned with stopping him. At the beginning of the season, I think he was a bit timid, and didn't realize what he could do physically. Now I feel like he's figured out that he can outrun linemen and linebackers, and as a result he's most comfortable freelancing, running around, buying time, waiting for guys to get open for huge plays. This has been a big change in his attitude. What he's doing has been increasingly effective because he's such a gifted athlete. He thrives operating in chaos where DBs are asked to cover his receivers for 4+ seconds and he's excellent at throwing on the run. This progress has mostly been a result of a changed mentality by Allen. As a pocket passer, I don't think there's been a lot of improvement. He still misses throws from time to time and struggles a lot when asked to throw with touch over defenders. He's got a cannon, but rarely connects on deep balls that require touch. If he can improve on these throws, he should wind up being pretty good. The key is that he needs to improve from the pocket. Allen isn't going to be 23 years old with a fresh body and 4.6 speed forever. After the hits start to pile up, he'll slow down a bit, and he won't be able to buy the time he's currently able to buy outside the pocket. At that point he'll need to have figured out how to operate efficiently from the pocket or he'll be sunk as an NFL QB.

I hope they don't rely on the wide receivers in free agency. None of them are very good, so if he wants to be aggressive, do it on a veteran wide receiver who can come in and play at a high level immediately. They obviously need to upgrade the OL. I don't expect 3 new starters from free agency on the OL but do think they'll go after whoever turns out being one of the best options available, and then add further upgrades in the draft.

I'd love to see the Bills win 3 of their final 4 games and head into the offseason feeling good about themselves and where they are in "the process." They need to show some positive play to make themselves a spot free agents want to come. Let Allen keep improving his profile as someone showing some promise and get ready to add a ton of pieces to this team for 2019.

Beane has to know this offseason is make or break for him at OBD. I expect him to continue being aggressive, targeting players in free agency and through trades who can fill immediate holes, and then go into the draft looking to draft BPA when they get the opportunity. I imagine they'll take a hard run at a premier offensive lineman, and explore the trade market for high end wide receivers who can immediately give Allen a number one weapon to throw to.

The premise is fine, but running QBs always get injured. There's just no avoiding it. If Allen wants to keep rushing 10+ times a game, some LB or DB is going to take a kill shot as he slides or ducks out of bounds. It's going to happen eventually, because it happens to pretty much every QB if they give defenders enough opportunities. Allen is a threat to run. That's obvious at this point. Defenses aren't going to forget he can run if he tones it down, but eventually he needs to operate more from the pocket if he wants to experience long term success.

Agreed. Unfortunately McDermott uses the opposite mindset and is way too conservative.

I'm not sure this is true. Allen is some kind of freak who is most accurate running full speed throwing lasers down the field. He might be the only QB I've ever seen where this is true. He still misses easy throws when he has his feet set. Pretty much anytime he doesn't throw a "fastball", his accuracy dips. When he just rips it, he's very accurate. It's the touch passes where he has to take some off a throw or drop it over a defender where he still struggles.

Agreed. He can run 10 times a game now, but in 2 years that number should be around 5 times a game. He needs to reduce the number of times he gets hit if he's going to stay healthy.

Agreed. His floor is higher than I expected due to his truly elite running ability. He's excellent when things break down and he can run around and utilize his athleticism. He just needs to learn to be more effective from the pocket. Use more check downs, and improve his ability to throw with touch. Figure out how to complete more deep balls to our receivers which are often wide open. The first half of the season I thought Allen was awful, but he's been a lot better the last two games. There are signs there that he can win games with his legs. If he can figure out how to throw a little better particularly from the pocket on touch passes, he could be pretty good.

Allen is great when he can throw the ball hard on a rope. When he has to throw the ball over a defender with some touch, his accuracy falls off a cliff. There was another one where he rolled right and missed a wide open Zay Jones who broke his route off up the sideline. Hopefully he can clean that up.