jrober38

None of this is based on facts or evidence. It's just what you hope will happen. People though EJ Manuel would get better after his rookie season. He was big, strong and smart, but just never figured out how to pass the football well enough at the NFL level. It wasn't from a lack of talent or effort. Until Allen actually develops, you can't say it's going to happen. It's just a raw projection of something that may or may not happen.

Right now, sure. I'll be interested to see what Arizona does in the offseason. Wilks looks like he should be one and done, and if they nail their coaching hire I can see a similar Jared Goff type turnaround from when he was so bad under Jeff Fischer and took a huge step forward under McVay. Will be interesting to see what they do.

In all seriousness he could have killed Darnold on that play. In a league where Defensive players are still hitting QBs and taking the penalty that goes with it, there was really no reason to not lay out Darnold and send a message to the NFL.

Fair enough.

He threw 2 picks and had a terrible fumble. Both were awful throws.

A trade for Julio Jones will cost a fortune. Not sure I'm trading the farm (again) for a 30 year old WR. I think it's more likely they go to the draft and find someone Allen can hopefully play with for 10 years. On the OL, I think the Guard spots are the biggest problems. John Miller is terrible, and Teller is just a guy. Would love to see us shore up those two spots in FA and go after a Centre in the 2nd round. In the draft, go #1 WR, #2 C, #3 RB. In FA get a LG, RG, and speed DE.

Foster is much better. Mckenzie is just too small. The fact that he's standing out is a bad look for Jones. Reality is that Jones only does damage out of the slot. Putting him outside against the Jets corners didn't work. He can't separate against man coverage and is only capable of finding space when the defense runs zone.

1. Turnovers 2. Special teams 3. No pass rush

Can see them adding one, maybe two free agents to fill the interior OL spots. FA Tackle Market looks very weak. Just bring back Mills and draft a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round. WR FA Market is terrible. The Bills need a legit #1 WR and likely need to use a 1st round pick there. Rookie, Foster and Jones in the slot is fine, with Mackenzie as the #5 Special Teams guy. Could use another draft pick in the 4th round too. RB should be easy enough to fill. McCoy is done and we need a bell cow back. Clay will get cut, but I'm not sure you you bring in at TE. It's not a position of importance in the modern NFL with only 3-4 guys putting up numbers each week. If they can add a couple linemen, a WR and young RB, that would be a good offseason. Filling all those holes in one season won't happen.

Jones is nothing more than a slot receiver in the NFL. He's not a guy you can put outside and expect to get open against man coverage.

More opinion with no actual data to back it up.

You're full of bad excuses. Allen made the mistake against Green Bay, he made it in the 2nd quarter yesterday for a pick, and he made it in the 3rd quarter that should have been picked. Again, where is the proof he's learning? And again, every QB has receivers who drop the ball. Every QB in the NFL throws the ball away. This isn't unique to Allen. Adjust for those throws for every QB, and Allen will still be at the bottom of the pile in completion percentage with Darnold and Rosen. Nothing you say is based on fact. Just raw emotion based on what you hope becomes real. In theory this is all true. In reality it doesn't always happen. It certainly didn't happen for JP Losman, EJ Manuel, Akili Smith, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Vince Young or Jake Locker to name a few. I hope you're right. I really do. I watch Bills games with my 3 year old son and the only guy he knows on the Bills is Josh Allen, but he likes to cheer for him. I don't know if he's his favourite player, but he's aware of him and it would be cool if growing up Allen could become the franchise QB for the Bills and my son grows up watching a good team. I just don't get how some fans can be so upset whenever someone is critical of Allen. His running ability is elite, his arm is phenomenal, but his ability as a passer is still extremely limited. He's a good "thrower", capable of making incredible plays from time to time, but as a "passer", who consistently throws guys open and can put touch on balls so his receiver can run after the catch, he's extremely limited in that department. His passing stats across the board are essentially the worst in the league among QBs. Sure he's a rookie, but putting things in perspective he needs to improve dramatically just to get to the point where he's top 20 in the NFL. Hopefully it happens. It would be great if he takes a huge step forward next year.

Literally every QB in the NFL throws the ball away and has their receivers drop passes. This isn't unique to just Josh Allen. Allen is bottom of the NFL in pretty much every passing category. He's not even remotely close to guys like Big Ben or Brees. 32nd in QB Rating, 34th in TD %, 29th in Int %, 33rd in YPA, 33 in Adjusted YPA, 34th in Net YPA, 34th in Adjusted Net YPA. His stats are really bad. Like worst in the league by most metrics. This isn't a narrative. This is all factual information. Allen has made his dumb rookie mistake twice now on throws that were picked this season. He actually made the same mistake in the 3rd quarter, after he'd already been picked the first time, so he doesn't appear to have learned anything.

His scouting reports are exactly as advertised. Pros - huge arm, elite mobility, extremely strong and tough, capable of making throws 95% of NFL QBs can't make. Cons - misses dump offs and easy throws, leaves pocket too early, too much hero blood throwing balls into danger, completes a very low percentage of his passes. He'll get another year, but if his QB Rating isn't in at least the high 80s next year with an improved supporting cast, I hope the Bills explore other options in 2020.

Allen's play making ability is almost exclusively limited to his ability as a runner. As a passer, by pretty much every metric you can look at he's very poor. He's got a huge arm, but he's only completed one deep ball all year. In a few years once the hits pile up and he's running less, he needs to improve drastically as a pocket passer otherwise he won't be an option at QB without the elite running ability. He simply misses too many easy throws that NFL QBs have to complete. Not saying he'll bust, but this is essentially what held JP Losman back as a QB. He loved running around and getting outside the pocket, and he had a rocket arm and great deep ball, but he struggled with check downs which are the throws that keep the chains moving. The offense was too feast or famine under Losman and it wasn't sustainable for any long term success. Same issue with Allen yesterday - pretty good in the first half ripping off chunk gains with his legs, and then the offense was awful in the second half, putting up only 6 points with 3 of them coming off a fumbled kickoff at the 15 yard line. Allen's efficiency needs to improve drastically if he wants to be a franchise QB.

Don't forget our special teams.

A few thoughts on the game: 1. Allen is going to get killed one of these days. He runs around too much and takes way too many big hits. It's almost like defenders go out of their way to hit him when he's outside the pocket, and as a result he's drawing a crazy number of roughing the passer calls. He got banged up near the end of the first half and wasn't nearly as effective in the 2nd half. If he can't run around and make plays, he's pretty limited as a player. 2. Zay Jones is not a #1 or #2 WR. He's a decent slot guy who can create separation against safeties, linebackers and most nickel corners, but he cannot separate on the outside against man to man coverage. Robert Foster is a better weapon on the outside, and I don't think it's close. 3. The Bills OL is a train wreck. They got man handled all day and out. They need to overhaul this group in the offseason (duh). 4. Shady is done. Father time appears to have caught up and McCoy can no longer be counted on as our bell cow running back given his salary. The Bills need to go in a different direction this offseason. 5. Need more pressure. We face a rookie QB who hasn't played in weeks and we spent most of the game sitting in a Cover 2 shell without bringing any pressure. The Jets have nothing at WR. Stack the box, play Cover 1 with a single high safety and man coverage and send some pressures. Darnold had all day to throw and the lack of pressure around him allowed him to grow in confidence throughout the day. Big mistake defensively. 6. Special teams are a train wreck. Need to find a punter and a couple core special teamers this offseason. 7. Why did Edmunds not take Darnold's head off on the game tying score to make it 20-20? Darnold runs around and Edmunds has him lined up and instead of blasting the guy and sending a huge message to a division rival (probably would have been a flag and a fine but who cares) he ran past him. Need to send a message that we're going to hit opposing QBs when given the chance like the Jets did against Allen all day.

I've never suggested his hands weren't hit or that it was a drop. I'm just pointing out it was a really poorly thrown pass that needed more air under it so his receiver could run after the catch. Allen has struggled with these type of passes all year. There was one against the Texans that could very well have been the same play and Allen threw it into Clay's feet. Unless Allen is throwing it as hard as he can, his accuracy has been inconsistent all year.

If it's not out in front why does Clay lose his balance reaching for the ball? I was at the stadium with a view from the far end zone and Clay had to stretch to get to the ball. If it's not too far out in front why is Clay hunched over reaching for the ball in the next frame? After last week, if the home crowd thought Clay dropped the ball, don't you think there would have been at least some booing? In terms of positioning, Allen is on the right hash. Clay makes contact with the ball in between the hash marks, meaning it's moving from right hash towards the left hash, meaning the ball is leading Clay. Watching the trajectory of the football, it is clearly dropping and if untouched would probably land on the 45 or 46 yard line on the left hash. Clay should catch the ball because it hits his hands, but the placement of the ball is very poor. Clay is wide open and Allen needs to learn to put some air under the ball. Hopefully that will come with more experience.

Actually he's running a post. Note that he touches the ball at the 39 yard line and falls down around the 44 yard line, ie he's going up the field. The throw needs to be dropped in the bucket for a big gain. It's easy pitch and catch.

The ball is on a downward trajectory and too far in front of Clay. When he actually touches the ball it's at his waist and he's stretching to get it. He should have caught the ball, but the ball need to be dropped over his shoulder for a 40+ yard play.

I think there's a reason why no one uses yards per completion when looking at QBs because you're discarding all of the incompletions. YPA is a better barometer for how efficient a QB can be. I get that Allen is capable of big plays, as most of his best throws are when he can drive the football and try to throw it through a brick wall, but his completion percentage holds everything back. 6.4 YPA is 33rd best in the NFL this year, and the result of a low YPA combined with a high YPC is a feast or famine offense. The first half we have 230 yards and 17 points. The second half we have 130 and score 6 points, with 3 of them coming off a fumbled kick off. This game was the opposite of the game against Miami when we were inept in the 1st half and really good in the 2nd half. The issue I have, and have always had with guys like Allen is that they struggle to put together a full 4 quarters of good football. They run hot and cold and if they get cold at the wrong time you usually wind up losing the game.

When have I let his team mates off the hook? Jones is nothing more than a slot guy in the NFL. He can't separate from boundary corners in man coverage. Clay is getting cut at the end of the year. We have nothing at tight end. The result isn't what I care about. I care about how Allen is executing the passes that are called, and in this particular play his pass was awful. Zero pressure, perfect pocket, both linebackers frozen by the play action, and instead of dropping a 12 yard pass over his receivers shoulder, he throws it at his knees with no air under it and he has to fall to the ground making the catch. The catch isn't important. It's whether a better more talented player would have actually been able to take advantage of a busted coverage with the same type of throw? Given that Clay had to fall over to try and catch the ball it would have been a wasted opportunity with any tight end replacing him because the throw was so off the mark.

The Bills need to figure out that Zay is nothing more than a slot receiver in the NFL. The guy cannot separate from boundary corners in man to man coverage. He needs to be used in the slot, where he can attack safeties and linebackers and find soft spots in zone coverage. Using him on the boundary shouldn't be an option.

He's WIDE OPEN and there's no pressure on Allen at all. It's a 12 yard throw that I can make. Stop lowering the bar.