jrober38

I don't think borrowing money to pay people a monthly amount will lead to hyper inflation. The US economy 30 days ago was buzzing. In your example Germany had just lost a war and had to pay massive reparation payments that crashed their economy. When people can't pay rent, can't pay for food, can't pay for anything, the government is going to have no choice but to start shipping people money to survive.

That's not what I said. I said that if they'd shut everything down early last week for a month, that I think we'd be on the way out like China is about 45 days from now. Because they didn't, I think this is going to be a major problem with the economy mostly shuttered until the summer.

Why would any of it not happen? Jobless claims this week are going to be between 2 and 3 million.

The government is going to have to start shipping people money every month. That is going to be the only option with unemployment upwards of 15%.

Agreed. If you have the cash reserves everything will be fine. For the vast majority of Americans that's not the case though. Anyone working at a restaurant who doesn't make food has essentially already been laid off. Hotels are going to go out of business in mass over the next month with occupancy rates somewhere between 5-10%. Airlines will go out of business, with only a few major carriers surviving. They'll all lay off a huge portion of their work force. The service industry will also be decimated. With people at home now, nannies, house keepers, gardeners, etc will be crushed as people cut costs. The auto industry is going to experience 2008 all over again. It's going to be really bad. I'm very disappointed the government hasn't done more to shut things down entirely. I think if they'd shut everything down and made everyone shelter in place for a month starting at the beginning of last week I think we'd be good by the end of May. Now I think it lingers into the summer, and I'm not sure the economy can wait that long.

Live sporting events are the polar opposite of social distancing. It's hard to imagine there being any live sports until a vaccine is found given how contagious this is.

Were people looting homes in Europe during the financial crisis when places like Spain, Italy and Greece had near 20% unemployment?

Almost half of American's don't have $400 saved in a bank account. Many investment firms are suggesting GDP is going to drop double digits over the next quarter. Goldman just came out and said they think it'll drop 24%. It's going to be economic Armageddon for 6+ months. Businesses all over the US are going to go out of business. Millions of people will lose everything. This is going to be way worse than 2008/09.

Yes. The rest of the team has been built very well. I used to be critical of them but I think they're both quite good. If Allen doesn't solidify himself as a top 10 guy this year, you draft a new QB next year to have on a rookie contract for 4 years and try again.

I agree. We may not have live professional sports this year. This is expected to last 12-18 months, or until a vaccine is developed.

Seems unlikely.

The economy is going to be destroyed by the end of April. If this lasts more than a few months, which seems likely give the curve the US is tracking along, the economy will crash. First the hotel, airline and restaurant industries will fail. Then autos will begin to fail as no one will be buying cars anymore. Same for real estate construction. This is going to be a colossal disaster. No other way to put it.

The economy is going to completely crash. This is 9/11 and the Financial Crisis all rolled up into one economic disaster.

It's going to crash the economy. The restaurant, airline and hotel industries are all going to get annihilated. From there it will spread into other businesses and eventually it will hit the housing market. When Mnuchin told the Senate to prepare for 20% unemployment he wasn't making up numbers out of thin air.

The economic consequences of this are going to be immense. It will be interesting to see what the jobless claims are this week. Some banks anticipating the worst number ever recorded.

All your chart shows is that 80% of the country has been left behind. The bottom 80% of the country has seen income growth of approximately 1% per year or less over the last 50 years. That's pathetic. The rich have seen their tax bill reduced drastically over the past 50 years. Over that time, the gap between the right and the middle class has sky rocketed. The rich control almost all of the wealth in the US and the middle class has been struggling for 30 years. The Trump government is running a $1 trillion deficit and to reduce it they're going to gut social programs millions of Americans rely on. Trump's tax cuts didn't pay for themselves as the deficit has skyrocketed, and the rich have mostly got much richer due to the enormous rise in the stock market which has mostly gone up due to stock buy backs. Wages have only grown slightly and just over half of Americans own stocks, meaning that almost half the country hasn't benefited from the Trump economy. The current system doesn't work. If 55% of Americans want to go vote for politicians who will drastically raise the taxes on the rich, there's nothing the rich can do to stop it. There doesn't need to be any basis for that decision. Democracy should represent the will of the people.

The current system has left the middle class behind over 50 years. Incomes for the middle class haven't grown in any meaningful way over that period. Taxing the rich to give to the less wealthy isn't a radical idea. It works successfully in many countries.

At this point Bernie seems like he should win the nomination. Warren is fading and he should pick up all of her followers once she drops out. At that point he'd have around 45% support among democrats and that would be nearly impossible to defeat. The Trump vs Bernie election would be great. Both cater to populist movements and will cater to the same type of swing voters.

Agreed. People grossly underestimate how valuable a defense that allows 16.5 points per game is to any QB. People love to talk about his weapons, which seems like a serious cop out to me given how little scoring we needed on offense to win games. Allen does some things well, and he does some things really poorly. The things he does poorly, like throw the ball down the field, drastically need to improve. The fumbles need to improve. The history of taking sacks that knock us out of field goal range needs to improve. If it's going to happen, it's going to happen next year. If he's not compiling a QB rating in the mid 90s, and in the top half of the league in most categories, it's unlikely to ever happen.

He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't. In no way is it a sure thing. Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky. They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season.

Gotcha. I'll check it out next time.

Is this all their pay for access stuff? I've tried digging around on PFF and always recall running into a bunch of pay walls to see anything interesting.

Sheesh. The fact that there's no consensus on some stats is beyond frustrating. If it's that high maybe we get past one or two more teams. I don't know, and frankly I don't really care to check anymore. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. I just went with the numbers I found. Also I realize that's a true adjusted completion percentage. I just couldn't find it, and I couldn't find any data regarding the number of passes thrown away.

I did it by team because I've yet to see any data that says who the QB was for every team when a pass was dropped. Matt Barkley threw roughly 10% of the passes we attempted this year. Also we had 26 drops as per stats.com which is the source I used. Our team's completion percentage was still like 4th or 5th worst in the NFL including the drops. I assume most of that had to do with Allen, but I also don't know if any of our receivers dropped passes from Barkley. I assume they did. Anyway you slice it, Allen was near the bottom of the NFL in completion and adjusted completion percentage. Whether he's last, fifth last, or anywhere in the bottom ten, that's not good. When I looked through this, I just plugged in teams at the bottom of the NFL to see who came up with an adjusted number higher than the Bills. I didn't write it down, and I think I came up with 4 teams who were worse than the Bills. I think they were Cinci, Indy, Cleveland and Detroit.

The amount of WR talent will push guys down in the draft. Go BPA in round 1 (ideally an offensive or defensive lineman), and then come back and grab a receiver in round 2.